Magna International Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is reasonable. I would prefer to see a few more years without Frank to see how this company works out. Dividends have been erratic so would not be my first choice as a dividend paying stock to buy. See my spreadsheet on Magna International Inc.

I do not own this stock of Magna International Inc. (TSX-MG, NYSE-MGA), but I used to. Magna is a stock I have tracked for some time. I have always liked Frank Stronach, the entrepreneur who used to run this company. Manufacturing firms are fairly risky and it is not the sort of company I usually buy. I am certainly curious on how this company will do without Frank Stronach.

First dividends are paid in US$, so they will fluctuate depending on the US$ CDN$ currency exchange rate. Also dividends have been rather erratic going both up and down and varying how many are paid in a year. The dividend growth in US$ has been at 76% and 7.46% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The thing is there was a huge increase in dividends in 2010 that is unlikely to be repeated.

The median increase over the past 4 year is at 16.1% per year. The last increase was in 2015 and it was for 15.8%. The current dividend yield is 2.1%. It is the same in US$ and CDN$. So currently, the dividends are moderate as is the dividend growth. They can certainly afford the dividends as the 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS 18.2% and for CFPS is 10.3%.

The Balance Sheet is unremarkable. The Liquidity Ratio is a bit low and the Debt Ratio is a bit high. I like to see both these ratios at 1.50 or better. For these ratios, higher is better. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.31 and the Debt Ratio is 1.92 and has been on a downward trend since 2009. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a bit high. For these ratios, lower is better. They are 2.09 and 1.09. It is better if they were under 2.00 and under 1.00, respectively.

On my last Dividend Stock report for December, Magna was listed as expensive. This is because I used the CDN$ stock price, but the US$ dividend. In actual fact using the historical median dividend yield, this stock is still at a good price. The historical dividend yield is 1.71% and this stock currently has a dividend yield of 2.10%, a value some 22% higher.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.04, 9.79 and 12.54. The corresponding 10 year median ratios are a bit higher at 8.06, 10.73 and 13.37. The current P/E Ratio is 9.37 based on a stock price of $57.98 and 2015 EPS of 4.47 US$ and $6.19 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable. (Note that you get the same results using P/E Ratios and stock price testing in US$ and CDN$.)

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I see Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 months stock price is $62.97 US$ or $87.18 CDN$. This implies a total return of 52.47% with 50.37% from capital gains and 2.10% from dividends. This seems rather high to me.

There is an interesting article in Money Flow Index looking at recent takes in this stock. An article posted in Putnam Standard talks about some recent analysts changes. Neha Chamaria of Motley Fool wades in on what he thinks of this stock.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

Magna International is the most diversified global automotive supplier. They design, develop and manufacture technologically advanced automotive systems, assemblies, modules and components, and engineer and assemble complete vehicles, primarily for sale to original equipment manufacturers ("OEMs") of cars and light trucks. Their capabilities include the design, engineering, testing and manufacture of automotive interior systems; seating systems; closure systems; body and chassis systems; vision systems; electronic systems; exterior systems; powertrain systems; roof systems; hybrid and electric vehicles/systems; as well as complete vehicle engineering and assembly. Its web site is here Magna International Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Have a great New Year’s everyone.

Methanex Corp.2

On my other blog I am today writing about my blogging plans for 2016 learn more...

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price probably reasonable. This company produces a commodity (methanol). It is tough times for any commodity. Because of this would not be a short term play. It can only be a long term investment at this time. See my spreadsheet on Methanex Corp.

I do not own this stock of Methanex Corp. (TSX-MX, NASDAQ-MEOH). I started a spreadsheet in November 2010 as I had read some good reports on the stock at that time. It is also got a solid "C" grade in a 2009 Money Sense review of stocks. Money Sense rated the top 100 Canadian Dividend Paying stocks. Money Sense was looking for stocks that provided generous income at reasonable prices.

I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 9.55, 12.81 and 15.35. These are a bit higher than the 10 year corresponding P/E Ratios of 9.12, 12.38 and 15.06. The historical median P/E is 10.40. The current P/E Ratio is 15.55 based on a stock price of $48.65 and 2015 estimate EPS of $2.26 US$ or $3.13 CDN$. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Since it is close to the end of 2015, we should also look at P/E Ratio for 2016. This P/E Ratio is 14.11 based on a stock price of $48.65 and 2016 estimate EPS of $2.49 US$ or $3.45 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $42.82. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.84, 1.11 and 1.32. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.14 based on a stock price of $48.65. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.02. The current P/B Ratio is 1.87 based on a stock price of $48.65 and BVPS of $26.05. The current P/B Ratio is some 7.7% lower than the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

This historical median dividend yield is 2.15%. The current dividend is 3.13% based on dividends of $1.52 CDN$ ($1.10 US$) and a stock price of $48.65. The current dividend yield is some 45% higher than the historical median dividend yield. This is not close to the historical high yields 7% plus it reached in 2009, but it is relatively high and suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, if not relatively cheap.

When I look analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $51.90 US$ ($71.86 CDN$). This implies a total return of 50.83% with 47.70% from capital gains and 3.13% from dividends. (This implied total return is the same if done wholly in US$ or in CDN$.)

This report on News Watching International talks about the company getting a rank of 3 (Hold) from Zacks and rating from other analysts. (Note values are given in US$.) This report on Investor Wired talks about Methanex Corp's high EPS growth over the past 5 years. I discussed yesterday why this growth in EPS is not as good as it seems. There are some analysts remarks on this company at Stock Chase.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, December 29, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Methanex is the world's largest supplier of methanol to major international markets in North America, Asia Pacific, Europe and Latin America. Methanol is an important ingredient in many of the essential industrial and consumer products. Head Office is in Vancouver, B. C. Canada. Its web site is here Methanex Corp.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Methanex Corp.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Div growth Industrial. This company's earnings depend on the price of Methanol, which can fluctuate in price. This stock can be a bit volatile. However, it has been able to make money for its shareholders and it pays a decent dividend. See my spreadsheet on Methanex Corp.

I do not own this stock of Methanex Corp. (TSX-MX, NASDAQ-MEOH). I started a spreadsheet in November 2010 as I had read some good reports on the stock at that time. It is also got a solid "C" grade in a 2009 Money Sense review of stocks. Money Sense rated the top 100 Canadian Dividend Paying stocks. Money Sense was looking for stocks that provided generous income at reasonable prices.

This stock pays its dividend in US$ as well as reporting in US$. The problem with this is that dividends tend to be volatile for Canadian investors. You are never quite sure what you will receive in dividends when dividends are paid. Currently, our currency has been declining against the US dollar, so in CDN$ terms we are getting very good growth in dividends currently.

The current dividend yield is the same in US dollars or CDN dollars at 3.13%. However, the growth in dividends is different. In US$, the dividend growth is 8.9% and 13% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. In CDN$ dividend growth is 11.2% and 12.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The dividend is moderate as is the dividend growth.

You can starkly see the effect of currency exchange on the increase in overall dividends from between 2014 and 2015. The US$ gained some 19.3% on the CDN$ between the end of 2014 and the present time. In US$ terms the dividend growth between 2014 and 2015 was 13.2%. In CDN$ terms dividend growth between 2014 and 2015 is at 35.1%. Do not forget that currency exchange can go both ways.

The company can currently afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS is 20.9% in 2014 and it has a 5 year median of 23%. The DPR for CFPS is at 17.1% for 2014 and it has a 5 year median of 12.4%.

Even though the share price is down 8.8% so far this year, the company has been making money for its shareholders. The 5 and 10 years total return is 12.51% and 10.76% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The dividend portion of this return is at 2.55% and 2.44% per year, respectively. The capital gains portion of this return is at 9.97% and 8.33% per year, respectively.

Outstanding Shares are flat over the past 5 years and have decreased by 2.6% per year over the past 10 years. Share have increased due to Stock Options and decreased due to Buy Backs. One other thing to mention is that I think that stock options are rather high. I think when stock options increase the outstanding shares by more than 0.50%, they are high. For this company, stock options have increased the outstanding shares by 1.11%, 1.86 and 0.58% from 2012 to 2014 inclusive.

Revenue growth is moderate to good. EPS is showing as good, but not when looked at using the 5 year running averages. Cash Flow growth is good, but it is a lot lower using 5 year running averages. When there is a big difference between growth over a set period and growth using 5 year running averages, it is because of volatility. When 5 year running averages are much lower than growth, it is because growth is not as good as it may seem. When 5 year running averages are much higher than growth, it is because growth is better than it may seem. For this company, all growth is in US$ as this is the reporting currency.

Revenue growth is 21.9% and 6.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share growth is 21.8% and 9.32% per year. Analysts expect Revenue to decline by around 26.7% in 2015. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenues is down by 23.2%. This would seem to confirm the analysts' estimates.

EPS has grown by 240% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, if you look at 5 year running averages, growth is a negative 1.7% and a positive 11.7% per year. The problem is in the past 5 years where EPS has been low and hit a bottom in 2009, 5 years ago. There also was a negative EPS in 2012. Analysts expect EPS to drop some 50% in 2015. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, EPS is down by 49.5%. This would seem to confirm the analysts' estimates.

Cash Flow has grown by 38.5% and 8.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown by 38.5% and 11.16% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The problem is again the growth over the past 5 years. If you look at 5 year running average growth for CFPS over the past 5 years, it is 10.6%. This is still a good figure but much lower than the growth of CFPS of 5 years at 38.5%. This is because CFPS hit a low 5 years ago in 2009.

Analysts expect cash flow to decline by 45% in 2015. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow is down by 42%. This would seem to suggest that the analysts' estimates are good.

This company has a strong balance sheet. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is 2.06 and it has a 5 year ratio of 2.15. The Debt Ratio is 1.75 and its 5 year ratio is 1.86. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high, but not unduly high at 2.33 and 1.33 in 2014 with 5 year median values of 2.13 and 1.13, respectively.

The ROE has been below 10% twice in the past 5 years and 3 times in the past 10 years. The ROE for 2014 is 22.15 and its 5 year median is 12.6%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2014 is 22.4% with a 5 year median of 12.6%. The ROE on comprehensive income suggests that the earnings are of good quality.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, December 30, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Methanex is the world's largest supplier of methanol to major international markets in North America, Asia Pacific, Europe and Latin America. Methanol is an important ingredient in many of the essential industrial and consumer products. Head Office is in Vancouver, B. C. Canada. Its web site is here Methanex Corp.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Stantec Inc. 2

On my other blog I am today writing about Dividend Paying Stocks learn more...

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price probably reasonable. I still like this company and would consider it if I was looking for stock in connection with the construction industry. It has a solid balance sheet and starting dividends is a very positive sign. See my spreadsheet on Stantec Inc.

I do not own this stock of Stantec Inc. (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN), but I used to. I bought this stock in April of 2008 to make some capital gains. It was a non-dividend paying stock at that point. I lot of people were recommending it as a great stock. The reason it was recommend is that it is in the infrastructure business. There are many that think this company will profit from government money promised for infrastructure building. With their new policy of dividends, this stock has become more interesting.

There is insider ownership. The CEO owns shares worth around $6.4M, the CFO owns shares worth around $2.4M and the Chairman owns shares worth around $21M. However, all this adds up to less than 1% of the outstanding shares.

They increased the outstanding shares in connection with stock options by 0.73% in 2014 (with increases of 0.64 in 2013 and 0.99% in 2012). This is relatively high. I think anything over 0.50% is high. For the stocks I track the median increase for stock options is 0.27% and 70% increase shares by 0.54% or less.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.20, 16.51 and 21.84. These are lower than the 10 year corresponding ratios of 13.48, 17.21 and 22.40. This historical median P/E Ratio is lower at 14.50. The current P/E Ratio is 18.97 based on a stock price of $34.90 and 2015 EPS of $1.84. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but a bit above the median.

However, if you look at P/E Ratio for 2016, the P/E Ratio is lower at 16.31 based on a stock price of $34.90 and 2016 EPS of $2.14. The stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and just below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $23.66. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.05, 1.36 and 1.74. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.48 based on a stock price of $34.90. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and just above the median. However, the Graham Price for 2016 is $25.52 and the P/GP Ratio is 1.37 which suggests that the stock price is reasonable and around the median.

I get a 10 years Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.24. The current P/B Ratio is 2.58 based on a stock price of $34.90 and BVPS of $13.52. The current P/B Ratio is some 15.4% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

I cannot do any dividend yield testing as they only just started to pay dividends.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most are Hold recommendations, but the consensus is a Buy recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus is $36.43. This implies a total return of 5.59% with 4.38% from capital gain and 1.20% from dividends.

Kristian Gore at WKRB talks about several analysts' recent recommendations. (Be careful with US reports on Canadian stocks as some prices are in US$ and some in CDN$, but they do not specify the currency. For example, dividends are often given in US$ as in this report.) In this article on Enterprise Leader, it says Zacks Research has given this stock a Growth Style score. This article in twst.com talks about the recent change in leadership in this company.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, December 24, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Stantec, founded in 1954, provides professional consulting services in planning, engineering, architecture, interior design, landscape architecture, surveying, environmental sciences, project management, and project economics for infrastructure and facilities projects. We support public and private sector clients in a diverse range of markets, at every stage, from initial concept and financial feasibility to project completion and beyond. Their services are provided on projects around the world operating out of more than 170 locations in North America and 4 locations internationally. Its web site is here Stantec Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Stantec Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Div. growth Industrial. This stock has had good growth and has produced nice results for its shareholders. See my spreadsheet on Stantec Inc.

I do not own this stock of Stantec Inc. (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN), but I used to. I bought this stock in April of 2008 to make some capital gains. It was a non-dividend paying stock at that point. I lot of people were recommending it as a great stock. The reason it was recommend is that it is in the infrastructure business. There are many that think this company will profit from government money promised for infrastructure building. With their new policy of dividends, this stock has become more interesting.

The dividend yield is low and the growth is moderate. The current dividend is $1.20 based on a stock price of $34.90. The median dividend yield is 1.25%. The last dividend increase was in 2015 and it was for 13.5%. Since dividend payments started in 2012, the growth of dividends is at 9.5% per year.

Shareholders have done well. The 5 and 10 year total return to date is 21.53% and 13.92% per year. The dividend portion of this return is at 1.26% and 0.53% per year. (Dividend started in 2012.) The capital gain portion of this return is at 20.28% and 13.38% per year.

Outstanding shares have increased by 05% and 2.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Issues and Stock Options. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow growth has all been good.

Revenue has grown at 10.8% and 15.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 10.2% and 14% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Revenue to grow by 15.6% in 2015. If you compared the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue has grown at 12.1%. So the estimate seems reasonable.

The EPS has grown by 23.3% and 15.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect the EPS to grow by 5.8% in 2015. If you compared the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, EPS has grown at 2.9%. So the estimate could be reasonable.

Cash Flow has grown by 11.7% and 15.7% over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 11.2% and 13.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect that the CFPS will grow by 12.3% in 2015. However, if you compared the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow has declined at 3.4%%. So I would wonder about the estimates given.

The Return on Equity has been less than 10% once over the past 5 years and twice over the past 10 years. The ROE for 2014 was 15.1% and the 5 year median is also 15.1%. The ROE on comprehensive income is 19.6% for 2014 and the 5 year median is 15.7%. This suggests that the earnings are of a good quality.

Another thing to like about this stock is the debt ratios which are good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is $1.78. The Debt Ratio for 2014 was 2.18. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2014 are 1.82 and 0.82.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, December 28, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Stantec, founded in 1954, provides professional consulting services in planning, engineering, architecture, interior design, landscape architecture, surveying, environmental sciences, project management, and project economics for infrastructure and facilities projects. We support public and private sector clients in a diverse range of markets, at every stage, from initial concept and financial feasibility to project completion and beyond. Their services are provided on projects around the world operating out of more than 170 locations in North America and 4 locations internationally. Its web site is here Stantec Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Colliers International Group Inc.

On my other blog I am today writing about Money Show 2015 and Derek Foster learn more...

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Looks expensive. I would not buy this stock because of the very low dividend yield of just 0.18%. The street seems to like this stock as the stock price is up sharply this year. See my spreadsheet on Colliers International Group Inc.

I do not own this stock of Colliers International Group Inc. (TSX-CIG, NASDAQ-CIGI). I am following this stock as it has split off of the FirstService Corp stock I am following.

At the end of May 2015 FirstService Corp became Colliers International (TSX-CIG, NASDAQ-CIGI) and FirstService Corp was spin-off the company. These separate stocks started to trade on June 2, 2015. I split the assets of the company depending on the stock prices as of June 2, 2015. I also use this value to split past stock prices.

What is interesting about both these companies is that the stock price rose strongly after the split. FirstService Corp stock is up 100% so far this year and Collier is up 112% so far this year. In regards to dividends, the company started to pay dividends mid-2013 at $0.10 a quarter. Collier has cut the dividends to $0.04 US$ semi-annually. The current dividend yield is 0.18%. Can you still call this a dividend stock with such a long yield?

Share growth and past growth in Revenue, EPS and Cash Flow will be the same as for FirstService Corp for 2014 as the companies did not split until May 2015. See FirstService Corp (TSX-FSV, NASDAQ-FSV).

There is also a problem knowing how analysts have come up with their estimates for 2015. FirstService Corp never said how they are splitting up the company; that is what percentage of assets, earnings, etc. go with each company. They are inconsistent in the quarterly statements for the percentages assigned to the New FirstService Corp. For Collier, they just are using the FirstService Corp values for comparison in their quarterly statements except for revenue. Market on June 2, 2015 gives a close to even split, but Yahoo says the split is 58.51% to Collier and 41.69% to FSV. I cannot confirm either.

Analysts expect Revenue to grow by 33% in 2015. However, if you look at the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter and the 12 month period to the end of 2014, growth is at just 9.4%. If you assume that Revenue will grow by the same amount per month as averaged over the past 9 months, then growth would be 17.19%. This is still a lot less than 33%. Analysts expect good growth in EPS to $1.01. However, the EPS to the end of third quarter is a loss of $0.34. I guess we will just have to wait until we see what the year brings.

I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 12.03, 15.38 and 18.72. The corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios are lower at 10.43, 13.04 and 16.47. The current P/E Ratio is 44.37 based on a stock price of $61.93 CDN$ and 2015 EPS estimates of $1.01 US$ or $1.40 CDN$. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. (You get the same results whether you use US$ values or CDN$ values.)

Because of the spin off, there is not much to compare the current stock price with. The only other viable ratio I think is the P/S Ratio. The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 0.48. The current P/S Ratio is 0.95, a value some 97% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The other thing is that a P/S Ratio of 0.95 is a low absolute value for P/S Ratio.

Also of note is I get a Graham Price of $10.85. The Price/Graham Price Ratio would be 5.72. This is a high value. The 10 years P/GP Ratio median high value was 3.05. This is also a rather high value as a good stock price is when this ratio is at 1.00 or lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. There are equal numbers for all three. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $48.77 US$. This implies a total return of 10.02% with 9.84% from capital gain and $0.18% from dividends. This is based on a current stock price of $44.40 US$ or $61.93 CDN$.

This item by Jennifer Langley on Dakota Financial News talks about what analysts think might be this company's earnings in 2015. In this article by Steve Brown on The Dallas Morning News talks about Collier opening a regional office in Dallas.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

Colliers International Group Inc. is a global leader in commercial real estate services. Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include brokerage, global corporate solutions, investment sales and capital markets, project management and workplace solutions, property and asset management, consulting, valuation and appraisal services, and customized research and thought leadership. Its web site is here Colliers International Group Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

FirstService Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Probably Expensive. I think that I would like to see the 2015 annual statement on this company to make any further comments. It will become clearer how well it is doing. However, it certainly seems to have vote of confidence from the street as the stock has moved up sharply this year. See my spreadsheet on FirstService Corp.

I do not own this stock of FirstService Corp (TSX-FSV, NASDAQ-FSV), but I used to. I bought FirstService Corp in 2002 as it looked like good solid company that knows how to make money. By 2010 the company was underperforming so I sold the stock and kept the preferred shares until the end of the year before selling them too. Preferred shares are not by favorite why of getting dividends.

At the end of May 2015 FirstService Corp became Colliers International (TSX-CIG, NASDAQ-CIGI) and FirstService Corp was spin-off the company. These separate stocks started to trade on June 2, 2015. I split the assets of the company depending on the stock prices as of June 2, 2015. I also use this value to split past stock prices.

What is interesting about both these companies is that the stock price rose strongly after the split. FirstService Corp stock is up 131% so far this year and Collier is up 79% so far this year.

In regards to dividends, the company started to pay dividends mid-2013 at $0.10 US$ each quarter. FirstService Corp. has continued these dividends. The dividend yield is very low at just 0.96% based on a current stock price of $57.55.

This company has Multiple Voting and Subordinate Voting shares. There are few Multiple Voting shares which are all owned by Jay Steward Hennick. All shareholders of the old FirstService Corp got shares in the two new companies on a one for one basis. So Hennick got the same Multiple Voting Shares in each company. For Subordinate Voting shares if you had 100 shares in the old company you would now have 100 shares of FirstService Corp and 100 shares of Collier International.

Shares have grown at 3.9% and 1.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues and have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue growth is moderate to good. Cash Flow growth is good. Earnings have not grown that well, especially over the past 5 years when they have had a number of earning losses. This is in US$ as the company reports in US$.

There is also a problem knowing how analysts have come up with their estimates for 2015. FirstService Corp never said how they are splitting up the company; that is what percentage of assets, earnings, etc. go with each company. They are inconsistent in the quarterly statements for the percentages assigned to the New FirstService Corp. For Collier, they just are using the FirstService Corp values for comparison in their quarterly statements.

That being said, I calculate Revenue has grown at 9.8% and 12.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 5.7% and 10.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Revenue to decline this year by around 6%. However, if you look at the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter and the 12 month period to the end of 2014, Revenue is up by 7%.

Analysts expect very good growth in EPS in 2015 at some 98% increase. However, if you look at the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter and the 12 month period to the end of 2014, CFPS is up by 6.6%.

Cash Flow has grown at 14.7% and 10.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown by 10.5% and 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect CFPS to grow by 4.95 in 2015. However, if you look at the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter and the 12 month period to the end of 2014, EPS is up by only 38.5%.

I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 12.03, 15.38 and 18.72. The corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios are lower at 10.43, 13.04 and 16.47. The current P/E Ratio is 34.43 based on a stock price of $57.55 CDN$ and 2015 EPS estimates of $1.20 US$ or $1.67 CDN$. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. (You get the same results whether you use US$ values or CDN$ values.)

Because of the spin off, there is not much to compare the current stock price with. The only other viable ratio I think is the P/S Ratio. The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 0.48. The current P/S Ratio is 1.14, a value some 135% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Also of note is I get a Graham Price of $15.54. The Price/Graham Price Ratio would be 3.70. This is a high value. The 10 years P/GP Ratio median high value was 3.05. This is also a rather high value as a good stock price is when this ratio is at 1.00 or lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $49.08. This implies a loss of 13.75% with a capital loss of 14.72% and dividends of 0.96%. The consensus price does not seem to match the recommendations.

Here is a news release on Globe Newswire concerning the split in this company between FirstService Corp and Collier. There are some comments on this company by analysts at Stock Chase.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

The company serves its customers through two industry-leading service platforms: FirstService Residential, North America's largest manager of residential communities; and FirstService Brands, one of North America's largest providers of essential property services delivered through individually branded franchise systems and company-owned operations. Its web site is here FirstService Corp.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

The Keg Royalties Income Fund

On my other blog I am today writing about Money Show 2015 and John Stephen learn more...

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Relatively Expensive? I would not personally buy this stock as I do not feel that I understand its statements. This company depends for the majority of assets on Keg Restaurants and I have no idea how well or poorly the Keg Restaurants are doing. See my spreadsheet on The Keg Royalties Income Fund.

I do not own this stock of The Keg Royalties Income Fund (TSX-KEG.UN, OTC-KRIUF). This was a stock suggested by one of my readers. I like dinning at The Keg. I find the food very good. At stock forums I viewed, investors liked this company as it is guaranteed 4% of the sales at Keg restaurants as income to the fund. So I decided to take a look at it.

As a lot of old income trust companies did, this company cut their dividend when tax rules changed for income trust companies. The cut was in 2011 and it was for 25%. There was no distribution increase until 2015 and this increase was for 3%.

Is there room for more growth in distributions? Curiously, the growth in royalty income has been much slower than the growth in 4% of gross sales under the Keg Restaurants (KBL). It would seem from what I gleamed from annual reports that this income fund received less than 4% of sales in the past but now seems to be receiving close to 4% of sales.

Growth in Royalty Income over the past 5 years is 140% and growth in 4% of Gross Sales of KBL was at 14.47%. In 2009, 4% of Gross Sales of KBL was $18.2M, but the fund seems to have received $8.7M. In 2014 Gross Sales of KBL was $20.8M and Royalty Income was $20.9M. When the company was publishing annual statements from KBL it was publishing KBL Revenue. This was between 2006 and 2010. 4% of this KBL Revenue is close to this fund's Royalty Income between 2006 and 2010.

This brings me to another point. Keg Restaurants Ltd (KBL) statements were not published after 2010. This was after 3 years of negative income by KBL.

The company is paying out around 99% of its distributable cash to unit holders. However, they are also paying out distributions to unitholders called Class C and Exchangeable Unitholders. If you include distributions to these unit holders, then the fund is paying out in 2014, 171% of its distributable cash.

This company depends for the majority of assets on Keg Restaurants and I have no idea how well or poorly the Keg Restaurants are doing. They no longer publish KRL statements. In 2014 97% of their assets depend on KBL. Goodwill and intangibles make up 70% of their assets and 79% of the funds market cap.

Shareholders, so far, are doing well. The 5 and 10 years total return on this income fund's stock is at 13.29% and 11.58% per year to date. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 6.64% and 3.69% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 6.64% and 7.89% per year.

So let's look at the stock price reasonability. The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.55, 24.95 and 26.36. The corresponding 10 years values are much lower at 10.51, 11.75 and 12.98. This is because P/E Ratios have been higher than usual lately. The current P/E Ratio is 27.63 based on a stock price $17.56 and EPS over the past 12 months of $0.65. No one is giving EPS estimates. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share of 1.34. The current P/B Ratio is 2.28 based on BVPS of $7.89 and a stock price of $17.56. The current P/B Ratio is some 69% higher than the 10 year ratio. The reason for this is that the BVPS is going down. The 5 year IRR for BVPS is a negative 5% per year. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The current dividend yield is 5.65% based on dividends of $1.01 and a stock price of $17.56. The 5 year median dividend yield is 6.94% a value some 19% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price may be relatively reasonable, but at the top end of the reasonableness range. If the difference was 20%, then the stock price would be relatively expensive.

There are only estimates for Revenue and then only for Royalty Income. If I use this and interest income, then I get a current P/S Ratio of 7.64. The 2015 Royalty Income is $22.4M. The 10 years P/S Ratio is 7.36. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

There does not seem to be any stock analysts' recommendations for this fund.

There was an announcement on Stock House that this income fund was raising its distribution for December 2015. According to Stock Informant site, there is a special distribution of $0.07 in December.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

Vancouver-based Keg Restaurants Ltd. is the leading operator and franchisor of steakhouse restaurants in Canada and has a substantial presence in select regional markets in the United States. KRL continues to operate The Keg restaurant system and expand that system through the addition of both corporate and franchised Keg steakhouses. Its web site is here The Keg Royalties Income Fund.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Stella-Jones Inc. 2

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Relatively expensive. The stock market has a tendency to under and over price stock. In this case, the stock price has gotten too high currently. See my spreadsheet on Stella-Jones Inc.

I do not own this stock of Stella-Jones Inc. (TSX-SJ, OTC- STLJF). I started a spreadsheet on this stock in mid-2009 because of a favorable report I read on this stock. It was considered to be a dividend growth stock and I am always on the lookout for dividend growth stocks.

There is not a great deal of insider ownership. One Director owns shares worth around $4.1M and the Chairman owns shares worth around $1.6M. This ownership added together is a lot less and 1% of the outstanding shares. Stock options for 2014 increased the outstanding shares by 0.32%. This is a moderate amount.

In insider trading, there was both insider buying and insider selling. Net insider selling was at $4.6M and this is 0.13% of market cap. This is a little high. The median NIS for the stocks that I cover is 0.02% and 70% of the stock I cover have NIS at 0.10% or less.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.00, 17.78 and 13.42. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 9.14, 12.43 and 16.03. The historical median P/E Ratio at 10.57 is lower than either the 5 or 10 year median P/E Ratio. The current P/E Ratio is 26.01 based on a stock price of $52.28 and 2015 EPS estimate of $2.01. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $23.77. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.79, 1.03 and 1.40. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.20 based on a stock price of $52.28. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The P/E Ratio for 2016 at 21.34 is still rather high compared to even the 5 year median values. The P/E Ratio for 2016 is based on a stock price of $52.28 and 2016 EPS of $2.45. The P/GP Ratio for 2016 is still rather high at 1.99. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.13. The current P/B Ratio is 4.19 based on BVPS of $12.49 and a stock price of $52.28. The current P/B Ratio is some 96% higher than the 10 years median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 5 year median dividend yield of 1.02% and a historical median dividend yield 1.28%. The current dividend yield is 0.61% based on dividends of $0.32 and a stock price of $52.28. The 5 year median and historical median dividend yields are some 40% and 52% higher than the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. There are more Buy recommendations than Hold recommendations and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $51.86. This implies a total capital loss of 0.19% with a capital loss of 0.80% and dividends at 0.61%. The 12 month stock price does not really coincide with the 12 month stock price.

Thomas Dobrow filed this report on Dakota Financial News about an insider sale, the declaration of a quarterly dividend and recently adjusted analysts' reports. See some recent analysts remarks at Stock Chase.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, December 17, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Stella-Jones Inc. is a leading North American producer and marketer of industrial pressure treated wood products, specializing in the production of railway ties and timbers as well as wood poles supplied to electrical utilities and telecommunications companies. The Company also provides treated consumer lumber products and customized services to lumber retailers and wholesalers for outdoor applications. Other products include marine and foundation pilings, construction timbers, highway guardrail posts and treated wood for bridges. It has sales in Canada and US. Its web site is here Stella-Jones Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Stella-Jones Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. There is a lot to like in this stock. The dividend growth is good. It has a very strong balance sheet. The company has been growing strongly over the past 10 years. See my spreadsheet on Stella-Jones Inc.

I do not own this stock of Stella-Jones Inc. (TSX-SJ, OTC- STLJF). I started a spreadsheet on this stock in mid-2009 because of a favorable report I read on this stock. It was considered to be a dividend growth stock and I am always on the lookout for dividend growth stocks.

Dividend yield is low and the dividend growth is high. When I buy dividend growth stock, I like to get ones with different combinations of dividend yield and dividend growth. I do not buy stocks with a dividend yield less than 1%, but there are certainly times when the dividend yield on this stock is above 1%. The current dividend yield is 0.61%. The dividend growth is at 25.5% and 30.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The company can afford the dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS was 18.7% in 2014 and its 5 year median is 14.9%. The DPR for CFPS was 10.6% in 2014 and its 5 year median is 8.81%.

If you had held this stock for 5, 10 or 15 years and paid a median price for the stock, your dividends would have covered 14.9%, 57.9% and 240% of the original cost of your stock. If you had held this stock for 5, 10 or 15 years and you paid a median price for the stock; you would be earning 4.4%, 12.8% or 49.7% on the original stock cost. The above are good reasons to buy companies that quickly grow dividends.

Shareholders have done well on this stock. The 5 and 10 year total return to date is at 45.61% and 32.07% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 1.19% and 1.02% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is at 44.42% and 31.05% per year. The stock price was fairly flat until 10 years ago and then it took off when a minor dip in 2009.

Outstanding shares have grown at 6.3% and 5.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have grown because of Share Issues, Stock Options and ESPP. If I were a shareholder per share growth is what I would be interested in. Revenue, earnings and cash flow has all shown good grown over the past 5 and 10 years.

Revenue has grown at 24.9% and 24.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 17.5% and 19.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect revenue to grow at 24.9% in 2015 and 14.4% in 2016. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue has grown at 19.4%.

EPS has grown at 20.4% and 25% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect EPS to grow at 34% in 2015 and 22% in 2016. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, EPS has grown at 27%.

Cash Flow has grown at 34.7% and 34.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 26.7% and 24.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect CFPS to grow at 27% in 2015. However, if you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow has declined by 36%. Cash Flow does not currently seem to be going in the right direction.

Return on Equity has not been below 10% in the last 10 years. The ROE for 2014 is 15% and the 5 year median is 15.6%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2014 is 19.8% and its 5 year median is 17.7%. This would suggest that the earnings are of good quality.

Another thing I like about this stock is the debt ratios which are good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 was 8.46 and it has a 5 year median of 5.94. The Debt Ratio for 2014 was 2.16 and its 5 year median is 2.16. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.86 and 0.86, respectively. The 5 year median values are also 1.86 and 0.86.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, December 18, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Stella-Jones Inc. is a leading North American producer and marketer of industrial pressure treated wood products, specializing in the production of railway ties and timbers as well as wood poles supplied to electrical utilities and telecommunications companies. The Company also provides treated consumer lumber products and customized services to lumber retailers and wholesalers for outdoor applications. Other products include marine and foundation pilings, construction timbers, highway guardrail posts and treated wood for bridges. It has sales in Canada and US. Its web site is here Stella-Jones Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

First Capital Realty 2

On my other blog I am today writing about some of the companies I looked at more closely in my recent monthly update, Part 2 learn more...

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Probably reasonable, but above median. See my spreadsheet on First Capital Realty.

I do not own this stock of First Capital Realty (TSX-FCR, OTC-FCRGF). In 2011 a reader asked me to review this real estate stock. Also, the site Canadian Dividend Stock site mentions this company as a top Canadian REIT.

It seems only directors have any substantial investment. I consider $1M a substantial investment. One director has shares worth around $2.2M and the Chairman has shares worth around $26.3M. Both these investments are under 1% of outstanding shares. However, the current Chairman was just recently appointed and he used to be the CEO.

The number of stock options that increased the outstanding shares was a bit high this year at 0.66%. For the companies that I follow the median increase is 0.24% and 70% are at 0.50% or less. Also, there is relatively a lot of insider selling. The Net Insider Selling is at 0.38% of market cap in 2014. For the companies that I follow, NIS median is 0.02% and 70% are at 0.10% or less. There was NIS at $15.7M.

In stock price testing, both AFFO and FFO have similar results. I will discuss the AFFO results. The 5 year median Price/AFFO is 18.12 and the 9 year P/AFFO is 18.12. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 20.01. This is based on 2015 AFFO estimate of $0.93 and a stock price of $18.61. The current P/AFFO Ratio is some 10% higher than the 5 year median P/AFFO Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the relative median.

I do a Graham Price calculation based on FFO rather than EPS. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.92, 0.98 and 1.11. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.98 based on a stock price of $18.61. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, and at the relative median.

The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 5.53. The current P/S Ratio is 6.29 based on 2015 Revenue estimate of $666M. The current P/S Ratio is based on a stock price of $18.61. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the relative median.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.62% and the current dividend yield is 4.62% based on a stock price $18.61 and Dividends of $0.86. However, if you look at historical dividend yield, the median is 5.78% and this is some 20% higher than the current dividend yield. This testing would suggest that the stock price is expensive. Note that the historical low dividend yield is 4.13%.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and this is also the consensus recommendation. The 12 month stock price is $21.36. This implies a total return of 19.40% with 4.62% from dividends and 14.78% from capital gains.

Jennifer Langley on Dakota Financial News reports on analysts' recommendations and also that two insider recently sold shares. A newswire release by First Capital Realty talks about the company being reorganized to enhance the effectiveness of its operations. Also see analysts' comments on Stockchase.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, December 15, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

First Capital Realty is Canada's leading owner, developer and operator of supermarket and drugstore anchored neighbourhood and community shopping centers located predominantly in growing metropolitan areas. Its web site is here First Capital Realty.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

First Capital Realty

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Div Growth RE. As a Real Estate sector firm it provides a good dividend which is affordable. Shareholders are making a reasonable return. It would be nice of dividend growth was better, but dividends are growing. See my spreadsheet on First Capital Realty.

I do not own this stock of First Capital Realty (TSX-FCR, OTC-FCRGF). In 2011 a reader asked me to review this real estate stock. Also, the site Canadian Dividend Stock site mentions this company as a top Canadian REIT.

According to the Bank of Canada 5 year total inflation is at 1.60% per year and core inflation is at 1.83% per year. The 10 years total inflation is at 1.69% per year and core inflation is at 1.80% per year. When looking at real estate companies, you should expect the dividend growth to be at least at the rate of inflation. This company does not make that. The dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 1.10% and 1.61% per year.

The other thing you expect is for the dividend yield to be a good one. The current dividend yield at 4.62% is good as is the 5 year median dividend yield also at 4.62%.

Because of good dividends, if you had purchased this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago and you paid a median price, dividends would have covered 28.3%, 63.6% or 189.5% of the cost of your stock. If you had purchased this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago and paid a median price, you would be earning 5.86%, 6.54% or 13.76% on your original purchase price.

Because of accounting changes made to IFRS in 2011, the company is showing a much higher EPS than under the old accounting rules. Accounting rules are changing all the time, but the change from CDN GAAP to IFRS was a big one for some types of companies. With this change in accounting, EPS could now cover Dividend payments. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2014 was 61%.

The company and some analysts also look at Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) to decide on dividend coverage. For FFO the 2014 DPR was 86.2% and the 5 year median value is 81.6%. The AFFO is the latest calculation for Real Estate and Income Trust companies. For AFFO the 2014 DPR was 83.7% and its 5 year median value is 87.9%. For FFO and AFFO, analysts generally like to see the DPRs in the 75% to 95% range.

Shareholders have done just fine in total return on this company. The 5 and 10 years total return on this company has been 9.33% and 7.84% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 5.07% and 5.23% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 4.25% and 2.62% per year.

The outstanding shares have increased by 11.9% and 12.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. It seems like the company is always issuing shares, but then it is purchasing real estate. Other increases to outstanding shares are convertible debentures and Stock Options. Because of the high growth in shares, the only growth that matters is the per share growth. In this, the only growth comes from cash flow and that growth is moderate to good. This cash flow is using cash flow excluding working capital.

Revenues have grown at 7.7% and 11.34% per year over the past 5 and 10 years, but the growth that counts is Revenue per Share is this has grown by 0.3% and 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Using Revenue per Share 5 year running averages and growth is not much better with growth at 1.1% per year over the past 5 years and a decline of 3.6% per year over the past 10 years.

FFO growth is low to non-existent. Over the past 5 years FFO has declined by 0.7% per year and over the past 10 years it has grown at 0.7% per year. Growth in AFFO is marginally better with growth at 1.8% per year over the past 5 years and 2.2% per year over the past 8 years.

Cash Flow per Share has grown at 0.2% and 0.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, if you exclude working capital, CFPS has grown by 11.16% and 5.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. There are arguments for going with CFPS excluding WC. (See my blog for further information on Cash Flow.)

The Liquidity Ratios are low at 0.71 for 2014, but this is not unusual for a Real Estate company. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.79 in 2014. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are basically normal for a Real Estate company at 2.26 and 1.26, respectively.

The Return on Equity is low with the ROE for 2014 being at 5.6% for 2014 and the 5 year median being at 6.5%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is not much different at 5.4% for 2014 and it has a 5 year median of 6.6%.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, December 16, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

First Capital Realty is Canada's leading owner, developer and operator of supermarket and drugstore anchored neighbourhood and community shopping centers located predominantly in growing metropolitan areas. Its web site is here First Capital Realty.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

DHX Media Ltd.

On my other blog I am today writing about some of the companies I looked at more closely in my recent monthly update, Part 1 learn more...

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Interesting small div company. This company now has rising Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow. It is trying to be a dividend growth stock, I presume. However the dividend yield is very low and I do not invest in companies with dividends below 1%. See my spreadsheet on DHX Media Ltd.

I do not own this stock of DHX Media Ltd. (TSX-DHX.B, OTC- DHXMF). I took a look at the stock after reading a favorable report at CANTECH. There was also a favorable report from Global Maxfin Capital.

This company started to pay a dividend in 2013. It is a good sign when a company does this. It shows that they have confidence in the future. However, the dividends are very modest and they struggled at first to cover the dividends. The current dividend yield is just 0.71% based on a stock price $7.93 and dividends of $0.06. The 3 year median dividend yield is 0.98%.

When dividends started, the company paid out slightly more in dividends than it made in earnings. In 2014, the Dividend Payout Ratio was 34% and it is expect to be around 13%.

Outstanding shares have grown a lot. The shares have grown by 15% and 24% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, Stock Options and ESPP. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. With such high growth in outstanding shares, the per share growth values are the ones that matter. Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow have all grown well over the last couple of years.

Revenue is up by 45.5% and 28.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However Revenue per share grown is 26.6% and 3.7% per year over the same periods. Analysts expect growth in Revenue this year at 15%. However, if you compare the 12 month period to the end of June 2015 and to the end of the first quarterly period of 2016, Revenue has grown at 40.5%. For this company, the annual statements are dated at June 30 each year.

To begin the company had years of earnings losses. This stopped in 2011. Since then EPS has grown at 52% per year. Analysts expect EPS to grow at 162% for 2016. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of June 2015 and to the end of the first quarterly period of 2016, EPS has grown at 75%.

Although there is good growth in Cash Flow over the past couple of years, the 5 and 10 years growth is disappointing. CFPS flat over the past 5 years and up by 5.3% per year over the past 10 years. Analysts expect good growth in Cash Flow this year at around 72.6%. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of June 2015 and to the end of the first quarterly period of 2016, Cash Flow has grown at 39.7%.

The Return on Equity has been low and the one for 2014 is just 7.5% and its 5 year median is just 3.5%. The ROE on comprehensive income is often lower. The ROE here is 4.7% for 2014 and its 5 year median is 4.2%.

The debt ratios are mostly good except for Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios which are currently quite high. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 was 1.83 and it has a median of 1.84. The Debt Ratio for 2014 was 1.48 and it 5 year median is 2.11. The Debt Ratio has been travelling lower lately. The Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios for 2014 was 3.09 and 2.09 respectively.

The 5 year low median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios 38.71, 52.28 and 65.56. The 10 year corresponding ratios are a bit lower at 32.19, 43.17 and 53.61. These are all quite high ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 18.88. Relatively speaking, this is a good one for this company. The current P/E Ratio is based on a stock price of $7.93 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.42. Shareholders have done well in total return over the past 5 and 10 years but the stock price is down some 15% so far this year.

I get a Graham Price of $4.50. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.27, 1.95 and 2.77. These are rather high ratios. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.76. This current ratio suggests a stock price that is relatively reasonable.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.19. This is a rather low P/B Ratio. The current P/B Ratio is 3.71 a value some 212% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, on an absolute basis a value of 3.71 is rather high. Generally, a good P/B Ratio is considered to be around 1.50.

I get a 10 years P/S Ratio of 1.77. The current P/S Ratio of 3.23 is some 82% higher. The P/S Ratio is the revenue ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The P/S Ratio has moved up quite a bit over the past few years when the stock price started to move rapidly up in 2012.

The total return to date over the past 5 and 10 years is at 51.91% and 13.77% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 50.71% and 13.48% per year. . The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 1.20% and 0.30% per year.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $10.17. This implies a total return of 28.95% with 28.25% from capital gains and 0.71% from dividends.

You can see what some analysts think of this stock on Stock Chase. This article in the Chronicle Herald talks about DHX Studios teaming up with DreamWorks Animation of California to produce content for DHX Television. This article in the Chronicle Herald talks about DHX having a good first quarter of 2016.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

DHX Media is a leader in the creation, production and marketing of family entertainment. DHX Media owns, markets and distributes over 10,000 episodes of entertainment programming worldwide and licenses its owned properties through its dedicated consumer products business. Its web site is here DHX Media Ltd.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Northland Power Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Not div. growth, not cheap. With 3 earnings losses in the past 5 years, they do not even come close to covering dividends with earnings. I do not like the debt ratios. Comprehensive Income for 2014 is a lot lower than Net Income. See my spreadsheet on Northland Power Inc.

I do not own this stock of Northland Power Inc. (TSX-NPI, OTC-NPIFF). This company is into generating electric power. I have a lot invested in pipelines and I would like to have more invested in electric power as my utilities investment. I read a report on this stock that said it was a good defensive stock to buy. That is, it is a good stock to hold in a stock market correction. I can certainly see the logic of using utility stocks as defensive stocks.

This is not a dividend growth company. It has not raised its dividend in the last 5 years. In fact the last time that dividends were raised was 2007. The other problems I see with dividends is that they cannot afford the dividends are they paying now. Over the past 5 years, EPS is a loss of 0.48 in total. So this company has not been able to cover any of the dividends paid via earnings for the past 5 years. This is a cautionary note.

The story is a better when looking at coverage from cash flow. In this case CFPS can cover 68% of the dividends paid over the past 5 years. Analysts do not think that earnings will cover dividends from 2015 to 2017. They also think that dividends will be around 75% of the CFPS for 2015 and 2016 and drop to 43% of CFPS for 2017.

Outstanding shares have increased by 14.6% and 12% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares have increased due to Debenture Conversions, Share Issues and DRIP. Because of the increase in shares, it is the per share values that really matter. Revenue growth is good, as is Cash Flow. EPS is non-existent.

Revenue has grown at 30% and 23% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 13.5% and 6.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts do not expect any growth over the next 2 years. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Revenue is down by 2%.

I have already covered EPS. Cash Flow has grown by 36% and 22% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 18.8% and 8.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect cash flow to decline by some 32% in 2015. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow is up by 9.4%.

Another cautionary note is that the ROE on net income is a negative 9.7% for 2014, but the ROE on comprehensive income is a negative 19.2%. This suggests that the earnings are probably worse than they seem.

Another cautionary note is poor debt ratios. Both the Liquidity and Debt Ratio has basically been falling since around 2004. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 was 0.73. If you add in cash flow after dividends, it is still very low at 1.14. When the Liquidity Ratio is less than 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover liabilities. The Debt Ratio is low for 2014 at 1.29.

The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high. The ones for 2014 were at 4.51 and 3.51. These are even high for utilities companies.

The best I can calculate for the Graham Price is $2.17. If they do earn a profit next year as suggested by analysts, the Graham Price could move up to $6.50. The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.48 and 1.73. These are rather high for a utility. The current P/GP Ratio is 8.07 based on a stock price of $17.49. If I use the Graham Price of 2016, the P/GP Ratio is 2.69. However, you look at this testing it is suggesting that the stock price is relatively expensive. It is also expensive on an absolute basis whether you are using a ratio of 2.69 or 8.07.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.02. The current P/B Ratio is 3.91 based on BVPS of $4.47 and a stock price of $17.49. The current P/B Ratio is some 93% higher than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive. Problem really is that BVPS is dropping like a stone. Over the past 5 years, BVPS is down 16.4% per year.

This company used to be an income trust and therefore had rather high dividend yields. Because of this I will only look at the 5 year median dividend yield only. The 5 year median dividend yield is 6.52%. The current dividend yield at 6.17% is some 5.3% lower. The dividend yield of 6.17% is based on dividends of $1.08 and a stock price of $17.49. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the relative median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month consensus recommendation is $19.83. This implies a total return of 19.55%, with 6.17% from dividends and 13.38% from capital gains. Ideally long term investors should buy good companies cheap. This company is not good (i.e. cannot make a profit) and it is not cheap.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

Northland Power Inc. indirectly owns interests in power projects. Northland's assets comprise facilities that produce electricity from "clean" natural gas and "green" renewable sources such as wind and biomass. Electricity generation is sold under long-term PPAs with creditworthy customers, and any fuel for natural-gas-fired projects, where required, is purchased under long-term contracts to assure stability of operating margins. This company operates in Canada, US and Germany. Its web site is here Northland Power Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Chesswood Group Ltd.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Small div growth company. This company still has some problems. I would to see growth in cash flow in order to even start to recommend this company. See my spreadsheet on Chesswood Group Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Chesswood Group Ltd. (TSX-CHW, OTC-CHWWF). A reader wrote me in 2012 that he was researching and found a company that he hoped I could give him a brief outlook on. He said that the company is Chesswood Group and they are basically a financial leasing company. From 2009 to 2012 they increased their dividends from 2.5 cents to 5.5 cents per month. This is a 120% increase.

This company was an income trust until 2011 when it changed to a corporation. When it decided to become a corporation, it decreased it dividends by 75%. It started to raise them again in the latter part of 2009. The 5 year dividend growth rate is 19.1% per year. They raised the dividends rapidly at first and then the dividend raises slowed down. The last dividend increase was in 2014 and was for 8.3%. They have not raised the dividends yet in 2015.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are getting better. The DPR for EPS for 2015 is 84% and for CFPS is 28%. The payout for cash flow is fine, but the one for earnings is a bit high.

This company has always had a high dividend yield. The historical high and low is at 29.68% and 4.15%. The historical median is 8.77%. The current dividend yield is 8.13%. The yield started to decrease in 2013 and hit a low of 3.8%, but has gone up since. Most analysts thought that old income trust companies would end up with yields of 4 to 5%.

With high yields the shareholders have had dividend payments that cover a significant amount of their share prices. For example if this stock was bought 5 years ago at a median price, dividends would now have covered 68% of the share price. Because of increases in dividends, if this stock had been bought 5years ago at a median price, a shareholder would be getting a dividend yield on original cost of 15.2%.

Share price reached a peak in early 2014 and has been travelling downward ever since. There were capital losses of 35% in 2014 and another 21% in 2015. In the past 5 years, the total return is still good at 18.60% per year with 9.14% per year from capital gain and 9.46% per year from dividends.

The outstanding shares have increased by 9% and 5% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. The company went public in 2006. This makes the per share values the most important. There is non-existent to moderate growth in revenue, there is moderate to good growth in earnings, but growth in CFPS is non-existent to moderate.

The Revenue per Share is down by 2.1% per year over the past 5 years and up by 3.1% per year over the past 8 years. EPS is up by 20.9% and 5.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is down by 2.5% per year over the past 5 years and up by 4.3% per year over the past 8 years. The third quarterly report shows increase in Revenue, but declines in EPS and Cash Flow.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.06, 12.76 and 14.71. The 8 year corresponding ratios are lower at 8.05, 10.03 and 12.01. The current P/E Ratio is 9.06 based on a stock price of $9.60 and 2015 EPS estimate of $1.06. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively cheap, but analysts are expecting EPS to go up by almost 14% in 2015. However, if you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 with the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, EPS is down by 7.5%.

I get a Graham Price of $17.70. The 8 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.60, 0.81 and 0.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.54. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 8 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.09. The current P/B Ratio is 0.73 based on a stock price of $9.60 and BVPS of $9.36. The current ratio is some 33% below the 8 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

If you look at dividend yield the story is a bit different. The 5 year median dividend yield is 8.22% compared to the current dividend yield of 8.13% based on a stock price of $9.60 and dividends of $0.78. The historical (or 8 year) median dividend yield is 8.77%. The current dividend yield is below these years by 1.2% and 7.4% respectively. These testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the relative median.

One thing I would like to mention that I did not like was that in 2011 this company did a 1 to 100 consolidation and then a 100 to 1 split. The sole purpose of this seemed to be to get rid of small shareholders. This is not a positive sign for small investors. Also, it seems that this company used to be classified as a Consumer Discretionary but is now showing up in the Financial Services sector. I am also changing how I classify this company.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.63. This implies a total return of 60.52% with 52.40% from capital gains and 8.13% from dividends.

A recent press release on Market Wired says Chesswood Group Ltd announced today that its subsidiary, Sherway Limited Partnership, has completed the sale of its Acura Sherway new car dealership. In a press release early in 2015 on Market Wired talks about CB Leaseco Holdings Inc. getting shares in this company in exchange for its 100% interests in Blue Chip Leasing Corporation and EcoHome Financial Inc. There are some positive comments made on this company at Stock Chase.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

Chesswood Group Limited is a financial services company operating primarily in the specialty finance industry. Chesswood's approach is to acquire financial services businesses. It owns Pawnee Leasing Corporation, located in Fort Collins, Colorado, is Chesswood's largest operating company. Pawnee's assets comprise approximately 75% of Chesswood's consolidated assets. Chesswood recently added Case Funding Inc., a U.S. legal finance company, to its specialty finance portfolio. Its web site is here Chesswood Group Ltd.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

WiLan Inc.

On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks for December 2015 learn more...

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap and risky. I would not buy this company. I do not like its business model. Besides it seems to have a hard time making money and cash flow. See my spreadsheet on WiLan Inc.

I do not own this stock of WiLan Inc. (TSX-WIN, OTC-WILN), but I used to. I am still following stock because I once owned it.

The company has had 3 earnings loss year in the past 5 years and 6 earnings loss years in the past 10 years. It simply cannot afford the dividends it is paying. This is reflected in the recent decrease of 76%. With this decrease the dividends are down around 10.6% per year over the past 5 years to date. You have to make money in order to pay dividends.

The company has revenue growth. For example, Revenue in US$ grow by 24% and 16.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ as this company is now reporting in US$. Revenue per Share is not as good with growth at 20% and 5.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is lower because outstanding shares have increased by 3.3% and 11% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

In trying to judge cash flow, the real problem is years with negative cash flow. They have paid dividends since 2009, so in the 6 years from 2009 to 2014 inclusive, they could cover the dividend with Cash Flows only in 3 of these 6 years.

The stock price hit a high in 2011 and it has been downhill ever since. The shares are down some 58% so far this year. The total return to date is a loss of 20.81% per year with a capital loss of 52.59% per year and dividends of 4.78% per year.

I cannot do any P/E Ratio testing because of so many years of not earnings. I get a Graham Price of $1.85. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.75, 1.12 and 1.61. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.79 based on a stock price of $1.46. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.00. The current P/B Ratio is 0.65 based on BVPS of $2.24 and a stock price of $1.46. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

There are few analysts' following this stock. In analysts' recommendations there is one strong Buy and 2 Hold recommendations. The 12 month stock price is $2.51 US$ or $2.83 CDN$. This implies a total return of 93.84% with 3.42% from dividends and 97.26% from capital gains based on a current stock of $1.46 CDN$. Someone is dreaming.

There is an article by Tim Shufelt in the G&M regarding how the company has not had the payoffs in patent fees that were expected. Patent Trolls like this company are starting to lose in the current legal climate in the US.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

Wi-LAN Inc. is an intellectual property licensing company. The Company develops, acquires, licenses and enforces a range of patented technologies which are utilized in products in the communications and consumer electronics markets. Its web site is here WiLan Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.