I do not own this stock of Lassonde Industries Inc. (TSX-LAS.A, OTC-LSDAF). Although this stock is not the Investment Reporter list, MPL communications does write about this stock. It has been covered several times in their Advice Hotline emails in 2010. Reports have been favorable and they suggest buying it for dividends and long term capital gains.
When I look at insider trading I find no insider selling and no insider buying. There are two classes of shares of Class A with 1 vote per share and Class B with 10 votes per share. The Pierre-Paul Lassonde, who is CEO and Chairman of the Board, owns 100% of Class B shares. The Class B Shares are worth around $393M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.37, 11.58 and 13.11. These are slightly lower than the corresponding 10 year values of 10.34, 12.29 and 14.12. The current P/E Ratio is 18.11 based on the last 12 month EPS to the end of the first quarter which is an EPS of $6.60 and a current stock price of $119.52. This stock test suggests that the current stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $86.67. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.85, 0.97 and 1.11. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.38 based on a stock price of $119.52. This stock test suggests that the current stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.77. The current P/B Ratio is 2.36 based on a stock price of $119.52 and a BVPS of $50.58. This stock test suggests that the current stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 year Dividend Yield is 1.76% and the current Dividend Yield is 1.34% based on a dividend of $1.60 per year and a stock price of $119.52. This stock test suggests that the current stock price is relatively expensive. The historical average and historical median dividend yields are even higher than the 5 year dividend yield at 1.93% and 1.83%, respectively.
There is an article in the G&M about Lassonde buying a US Juice company. There is a Newswire release talking about Lassonde acquiring more of Clement Pappas and Company Inc., another juice company. The Dividend Blogger recently talked about this company. An article on Seeking Alpha talks about this stock.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: stock is current expensive. No matter how you look at the current stock price, this stock is currently expensive. I would rate it a Hold. If I held this stock I would not sell just because it is current overprice. However, I do not think I would buy any at this price. There are no analysts that follow this stock. See my spreadsheet at las.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, July 30, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Lassonde Industries Inc. is a North American leader in the development, manufacture and sale of a wide range of fruit and vegetable juices and drinks marketed under brands such as Everfresh, Fairlee, Flavür, Fruité, Graves, Oasis and Rougemont. Lassonde is also the second largest producer of store brand ready-to-drink fruit juices and drinks in the United States and a major producer of cranberry sauces. Its web site is here Lassonde Industries.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, July 31, 2014
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Lassonde Industries Inc.
On my other blog I am talking about my investments in Ballard and BlackBerry continue...
I do not own this stock of Lassonde Industries Inc. (TSX-LAS.A, OTC-LSDAF). Although this stock is not on the Investment Reporter list, MPL communications does write about this stock. It has been covered several times in their Advice Hotline emails in 2010. Reports have been favorable and they suggest buying it for dividends and long term capital gains.
Generally, this stock has a low dividend yield, but high dividend growth. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.76%. The current dividend yield is 1.34%. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 15.1% and 14% per year.
However, dividend increase really slowed down in 2014 coming in at just 2.6% compared to last year's 20%. Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow increases slow in 2013. This could explain the slowdown in dividend increases. For example, Revenue per Share 5 year increase last year was 19.4% per year, but the 5 year increase to 2013 it is 13.11% per year, EPS 5 year increase last year was 12.5% per year and to 2013 it is 8.1% per year and CFPS 5 year increase last year was 13.3% per year and to 2013 it is 12.4% per year.
The 5 year Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is at 23%. The one for 2013 was at 23% also. The 5 year median DPR for CFPS is at 13% and the one for 2013 is at 11%.
The shareholders of done well recently with the 5 and 10 year total return to date at 19.47% and 17.22% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 1.81% and 1.73% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 17.67% and 15.49% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 1% over the past 5 years and are flat over the past 10 years. The growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow is very good over the past 5 and 10 years. For 2013 the revenue growth was very low at just 1.8%, EPS better at 2.2% and CFPS rather normal at 17.4%.
Revenue per Share is up by 14.4% and 15.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 8.1% and 12.3% over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 12.4% and 15.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity has been above 10% each year over the past 10 years. The ROE for 2013 was at 12.8% and the 5 year median is at 14.6%. The ROE on comprehensive income was at 17.7% for 2013 and the 5 year median is at 14.5%.
Basically the debt ratios are good. The Liquidity Ratio at 1.92 is very good and it has a 5 year median of 2.01. The Debt Ratio is 1.83 and the 5 year median ratio is 1.83. I would like to see the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios a bit lower but they are fine at 2.20 and 1.20. The 5 year median ratios are better at 1.89 and 0.89.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Stock. It has a strong balance sheet and has proven it can make money. This has been a great stock for shareholders and some see it doing well going into the US. See my spreadsheet at las.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, July 31, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Lassonde Industries Inc. is a North American leader in the development, manufacture and sale of a wide range of fruit and vegetable juices and drinks marketed under brands such as Everfresh, Fairlee, Flavür, Fruité, Graves, Oasis and Rougemont. Lassonde is also the second largest producer of store brand ready-to-drink fruit juices and drinks in the United States and a major producer of cranberry sauces. Its web site is here Lassonde Industries.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Lassonde Industries Inc. (TSX-LAS.A, OTC-LSDAF). Although this stock is not on the Investment Reporter list, MPL communications does write about this stock. It has been covered several times in their Advice Hotline emails in 2010. Reports have been favorable and they suggest buying it for dividends and long term capital gains.
Generally, this stock has a low dividend yield, but high dividend growth. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.76%. The current dividend yield is 1.34%. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 15.1% and 14% per year.
However, dividend increase really slowed down in 2014 coming in at just 2.6% compared to last year's 20%. Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow increases slow in 2013. This could explain the slowdown in dividend increases. For example, Revenue per Share 5 year increase last year was 19.4% per year, but the 5 year increase to 2013 it is 13.11% per year, EPS 5 year increase last year was 12.5% per year and to 2013 it is 8.1% per year and CFPS 5 year increase last year was 13.3% per year and to 2013 it is 12.4% per year.
The 5 year Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is at 23%. The one for 2013 was at 23% also. The 5 year median DPR for CFPS is at 13% and the one for 2013 is at 11%.
The shareholders of done well recently with the 5 and 10 year total return to date at 19.47% and 17.22% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 1.81% and 1.73% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 17.67% and 15.49% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 1% over the past 5 years and are flat over the past 10 years. The growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow is very good over the past 5 and 10 years. For 2013 the revenue growth was very low at just 1.8%, EPS better at 2.2% and CFPS rather normal at 17.4%.
Revenue per Share is up by 14.4% and 15.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 8.1% and 12.3% over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 12.4% and 15.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity has been above 10% each year over the past 10 years. The ROE for 2013 was at 12.8% and the 5 year median is at 14.6%. The ROE on comprehensive income was at 17.7% for 2013 and the 5 year median is at 14.5%.
Basically the debt ratios are good. The Liquidity Ratio at 1.92 is very good and it has a 5 year median of 2.01. The Debt Ratio is 1.83 and the 5 year median ratio is 1.83. I would like to see the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios a bit lower but they are fine at 2.20 and 1.20. The 5 year median ratios are better at 1.89 and 0.89.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Stock. It has a strong balance sheet and has proven it can make money. This has been a great stock for shareholders and some see it doing well going into the US. See my spreadsheet at las.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, July 31, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Lassonde Industries Inc. is a North American leader in the development, manufacture and sale of a wide range of fruit and vegetable juices and drinks marketed under brands such as Everfresh, Fairlee, Flavür, Fruité, Graves, Oasis and Rougemont. Lassonde is also the second largest producer of store brand ready-to-drink fruit juices and drinks in the United States and a major producer of cranberry sauces. Its web site is here Lassonde Industries.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Inter Pipeline Ltd. 2
I do not own this stock of Inter Pipeline Ltd. (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF). In 2008, a friend had asked me about this pipeline and I had no information on it, so I investigated it. It is a utility and I follow and have lots of utility stocks.
When I look at insider trading, I find no insider selling, but some insider buying at $1.7M at around 0.02% of the market cap. In other words, a relatively very small amount of buying is going on. However, there is recent insider buying at between $30 and $33 per share and that is a positive.
The company does not have stock options per se, but a number of stock options like vehicles called Deferred Share Rights, Deferred Unit Right, Options Unit Incentive, Rights Deferred Share Rights, Unit Appreciation Right and Options Unit Incentive Options. The outstanding shares were not increased in 2013 due to any sort of stock option. The CEO has shares worth $5.8M. The old chairman seems to still have shares worth around $132.3M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.82, 14.30 and 16.78. The 10 year corresponding P/E Ratios are similar. These P/E Ratios are relatively normal for a utility. The current P/E Ratio is 29.59 based on a stock price of $34.62 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.17. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $14.31. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.05, 1.14 and 1.32. These P/GP Ratios are relatively normal for a utility. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.42. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.03. This is a relatively normal value for a utility. The current P/B Ratio is 4.45 a value some 120% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 5.75%. This is a little high for a utility. The current dividend yield at 3.73% is some 35% lower. It was expected that old income trusts would end up with dividend yields in the 4 to 5% range and this stock has a dividend yield lower than this. I cannot test against the historical dividend yields because they are very high due to the fact that this stock used to be an income trust company.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $32.70. This implies a total loss of 1.82% with a capital loss of 5.55% and dividends at 3.73%. Obviously, the stock price is moving faster than analysts' recommendations.
The site of Sys-Con Media talks about IPL completing the first phase of Polaris Pipeline Expansion in July 2014. A recent article in the Financial Post talks about a $100M expansion of the Saskatchewan system.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: currently overpriced. It would seem to me that this stock is currently relatively quite expensive. Personally, I would want them to get there Liquidity Ratio under control before I would want to invest in this stock.
However, if I owned this stock I would not sell just because it is overpriced. If you hold stocks for the long term they go from being overpriced to being underpriced and back to being overpriced. I would still worry about the Liquidity Ratio. See my spreadsheet at ipl.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, July 28, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Inter Pipeline is a major petroleum transportation, natural gas liquids extraction, and bulk liquid storage business based in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Structured as a publicly traded limited partnership, Inter Pipeline owns and operates energy infrastructure assets in western Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany and Ireland. The company is a limited partnership, not an income trust. Its web site is here Inter Pipeline.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find no insider selling, but some insider buying at $1.7M at around 0.02% of the market cap. In other words, a relatively very small amount of buying is going on. However, there is recent insider buying at between $30 and $33 per share and that is a positive.
The company does not have stock options per se, but a number of stock options like vehicles called Deferred Share Rights, Deferred Unit Right, Options Unit Incentive, Rights Deferred Share Rights, Unit Appreciation Right and Options Unit Incentive Options. The outstanding shares were not increased in 2013 due to any sort of stock option. The CEO has shares worth $5.8M. The old chairman seems to still have shares worth around $132.3M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.82, 14.30 and 16.78. The 10 year corresponding P/E Ratios are similar. These P/E Ratios are relatively normal for a utility. The current P/E Ratio is 29.59 based on a stock price of $34.62 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.17. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $14.31. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.05, 1.14 and 1.32. These P/GP Ratios are relatively normal for a utility. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.42. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.03. This is a relatively normal value for a utility. The current P/B Ratio is 4.45 a value some 120% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 5.75%. This is a little high for a utility. The current dividend yield at 3.73% is some 35% lower. It was expected that old income trusts would end up with dividend yields in the 4 to 5% range and this stock has a dividend yield lower than this. I cannot test against the historical dividend yields because they are very high due to the fact that this stock used to be an income trust company.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $32.70. This implies a total loss of 1.82% with a capital loss of 5.55% and dividends at 3.73%. Obviously, the stock price is moving faster than analysts' recommendations.
The site of Sys-Con Media talks about IPL completing the first phase of Polaris Pipeline Expansion in July 2014. A recent article in the Financial Post talks about a $100M expansion of the Saskatchewan system.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: currently overpriced. It would seem to me that this stock is currently relatively quite expensive. Personally, I would want them to get there Liquidity Ratio under control before I would want to invest in this stock.
However, if I owned this stock I would not sell just because it is overpriced. If you hold stocks for the long term they go from being overpriced to being underpriced and back to being overpriced. I would still worry about the Liquidity Ratio. See my spreadsheet at ipl.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, July 28, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Inter Pipeline is a major petroleum transportation, natural gas liquids extraction, and bulk liquid storage business based in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Structured as a publicly traded limited partnership, Inter Pipeline owns and operates energy infrastructure assets in western Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany and Ireland. The company is a limited partnership, not an income trust. Its web site is here Inter Pipeline.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, July 28, 2014
Inter Pipeline Ltd.
On my other blog I am talking about negative investment reports continue...
I do not own this stock of Inter Pipeline Ltd. (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF). In 2008, a friend had asked me about this pipeline and I had no information on it, so I investigated it. It is a utility and I follow and have lots of utility stocks.
This is a dividend growth stock with a good dividend and moderate growth. The current dividend is 3.73% and the 5 year median dividend is 5.75%. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 6.6% and 4.8% per year. The last dividend increase occurred in 2013 and was for 13%. Dividend increases have been good lately, but there were no increases in 2008 and 2009.
The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is 98%. There is a problem in that in 2013 there was an earnings loss. The DPR for 2014 is expected to be 110% and then decrease from there. The 5 year median DPR for CFPS is 70%. The DPR for CFPS for 2013 was 75%. In 2014 the DPR for CFPS is expected to be 79% and then start to decrease.
Shareholders have been making money from this stock recently with the 5 and 10 year total return at 32.60% and 20.14% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 6.38% and 5.92% per year over these periods. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 26.21% and 14.22% per year over these periods.
Outstanding shares have increase by 6.6% and 9.01% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The increases are due to DRIP, Stock Options and Share Issues. They also issued more shares in 2014 and this year so far they have increased the shares by another 4.4%. Because of the increasing shares, the values per shares become much more important.
Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow growth is much better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years. It is only Revenue per Share that shows negative growth over the past 5 years. Revenue is up by 22.6% and 2.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is down by 4.2% and up by 12.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The company did suffer in the 2008 recession, but growth has been uneven since then.
Since there was an earnings loss in 2013, I will look at the 5 year running averages for EPS. Over the past 5 and 10 years EPS is up by 7.8% and 18.6% per year. EPS took a hit in 2008 also and until this year they have been growing. The earnings loss for 2013 was due to the company's reorganization and so is not serious.
Cash Flow has done the best and Cash Flow is up by 11% and 18.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 4.2% and 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity was below 10% 4 times in the past 10 years. In two of these years, 2007 and 2013 it was because earnings were negative. Prior to 10 years ago, ROE was very low. The 5 year median ROE was just 1.6%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2013 was very low at just 1.3%.
The debt ratios are not very good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is 0.15. It has to be at 1.00 before current assets can cover current liabilities. Part of this, but a very small part is the current portion of the long term debt. Another small part is outstanding current commercial papers. However, when you add that back in the Liquidity Ratio is 0.52. If you add in cash flow after dividends, it only rises to 0.72.
The Debt Ratio is a bit low at 1.45 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a bit high at 3.21 and 2.21 for 2013.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Stock. The biggest current liabilities have to do with decommissioning obligations, environment liabilities and construction reclamation. Personally, I would want them to get their Liquidity Ratio under control before I would want to invest in this stock. See my spreadsheet at ipl.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, July 29, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Inter Pipeline is a major petroleum transportation, natural gas liquids extraction, and bulk liquid storage business based in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Structured as a publicly traded limited partnership, Inter Pipeline owns and operates energy infrastructure assets in western Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany and Ireland. The company is a limited partnership, not an income trust. Its web site is here Inter Pipeline.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Inter Pipeline Ltd. (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF). In 2008, a friend had asked me about this pipeline and I had no information on it, so I investigated it. It is a utility and I follow and have lots of utility stocks.
This is a dividend growth stock with a good dividend and moderate growth. The current dividend is 3.73% and the 5 year median dividend is 5.75%. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 6.6% and 4.8% per year. The last dividend increase occurred in 2013 and was for 13%. Dividend increases have been good lately, but there were no increases in 2008 and 2009.
The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is 98%. There is a problem in that in 2013 there was an earnings loss. The DPR for 2014 is expected to be 110% and then decrease from there. The 5 year median DPR for CFPS is 70%. The DPR for CFPS for 2013 was 75%. In 2014 the DPR for CFPS is expected to be 79% and then start to decrease.
Shareholders have been making money from this stock recently with the 5 and 10 year total return at 32.60% and 20.14% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 6.38% and 5.92% per year over these periods. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 26.21% and 14.22% per year over these periods.
Outstanding shares have increase by 6.6% and 9.01% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The increases are due to DRIP, Stock Options and Share Issues. They also issued more shares in 2014 and this year so far they have increased the shares by another 4.4%. Because of the increasing shares, the values per shares become much more important.
Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow growth is much better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years. It is only Revenue per Share that shows negative growth over the past 5 years. Revenue is up by 22.6% and 2.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is down by 4.2% and up by 12.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The company did suffer in the 2008 recession, but growth has been uneven since then.
Since there was an earnings loss in 2013, I will look at the 5 year running averages for EPS. Over the past 5 and 10 years EPS is up by 7.8% and 18.6% per year. EPS took a hit in 2008 also and until this year they have been growing. The earnings loss for 2013 was due to the company's reorganization and so is not serious.
Cash Flow has done the best and Cash Flow is up by 11% and 18.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 4.2% and 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity was below 10% 4 times in the past 10 years. In two of these years, 2007 and 2013 it was because earnings were negative. Prior to 10 years ago, ROE was very low. The 5 year median ROE was just 1.6%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2013 was very low at just 1.3%.
The debt ratios are not very good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is 0.15. It has to be at 1.00 before current assets can cover current liabilities. Part of this, but a very small part is the current portion of the long term debt. Another small part is outstanding current commercial papers. However, when you add that back in the Liquidity Ratio is 0.52. If you add in cash flow after dividends, it only rises to 0.72.
The Debt Ratio is a bit low at 1.45 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a bit high at 3.21 and 2.21 for 2013.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Stock. The biggest current liabilities have to do with decommissioning obligations, environment liabilities and construction reclamation. Personally, I would want them to get their Liquidity Ratio under control before I would want to invest in this stock. See my spreadsheet at ipl.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, July 29, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Inter Pipeline is a major petroleum transportation, natural gas liquids extraction, and bulk liquid storage business based in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Structured as a publicly traded limited partnership, Inter Pipeline owns and operates energy infrastructure assets in western Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany and Ireland. The company is a limited partnership, not an income trust. Its web site is here Inter Pipeline.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, July 25, 2014
Contrans Group Inc. 2
I do not own this stock of Contrans Group Inc. (TSX-CSS, OTC-CTFIF). I got this stock off an article in the Globe and Mail called "15 dividend stocks where payouts are expected to grow". This number cruncher article dated in February 2013 was looking for companies with earnings growth over the last 12 months and a decent Dividend Payout Ratio. (You may not be able to access this article beyond the pay wall.)
In the insider trading reporting there is a very small amount of insider selling and no insider buying. There are stock options but there was no increase in outstanding shares in 2013 due to stock options. The CEO owns almost all the Class B shares worth around $18.3M. He also has Class A shares worth around $50.9M. The CEO is also chairman of the Board. There is an officer that owns shares worth around $6M and a director with shares worth around $3.4M. So, there is good insider ownership.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.53, 13.84 and 16.05. The current P/E Ratio is 14.59 based on a stock price of $14.74 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.01. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $11.62. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.06 and 1.27. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.27. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but at the very high end of that range.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.87. The current P/B Ratio is 2.48 a value some 32% higher. . This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.38% and the current dividend yield is 4.07% a value some 7% higher. Since dividend yield used to be a lot higher, using historical dividend yield in a stock price test makes no sense. However, a 4.07% dividend yield is a good one. The 5 year median dividend yield stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $15.50. This implies a total return of 9.23%, with 4.07% from dividends and 5.16% from capital gains.
A recent article in the Financial Post suggest for the trucking industry in Canada demand is beginning to overtake supply. The Dividend Blogger talks about this stock and its dividend increases. He thinks that if the 1 year return is less than the dividend increase then there might be a buying opportunity. An article in Trucking News talks about this company selling off its waste collection subsidiaries.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: stock price is probably still reasonable. Stock rose some 32.8% last year and some 10.99% so far this year. Dividends increased 25% in 2013 and 20% in 2014. So over the past two years the capital gain is close to the dividend increases.
You expect that that the capital gains and the dividend increase would be roughly the same. So, analysts' expectations of 5.16% further rise would put the capital gain increase a bit higher than dividend increases. See my spreadsheet at css.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, July 24, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Contrans Group Inc. is engaged in freight transportation. It provides freight transportation services to shippers located in Canada, as well as in the eastern, mid-western and southern United States. Its web site is here Contrans.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
In the insider trading reporting there is a very small amount of insider selling and no insider buying. There are stock options but there was no increase in outstanding shares in 2013 due to stock options. The CEO owns almost all the Class B shares worth around $18.3M. He also has Class A shares worth around $50.9M. The CEO is also chairman of the Board. There is an officer that owns shares worth around $6M and a director with shares worth around $3.4M. So, there is good insider ownership.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.53, 13.84 and 16.05. The current P/E Ratio is 14.59 based on a stock price of $14.74 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.01. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $11.62. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.06 and 1.27. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.27. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but at the very high end of that range.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.87. The current P/B Ratio is 2.48 a value some 32% higher. . This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.38% and the current dividend yield is 4.07% a value some 7% higher. Since dividend yield used to be a lot higher, using historical dividend yield in a stock price test makes no sense. However, a 4.07% dividend yield is a good one. The 5 year median dividend yield stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $15.50. This implies a total return of 9.23%, with 4.07% from dividends and 5.16% from capital gains.
A recent article in the Financial Post suggest for the trucking industry in Canada demand is beginning to overtake supply. The Dividend Blogger talks about this stock and its dividend increases. He thinks that if the 1 year return is less than the dividend increase then there might be a buying opportunity. An article in Trucking News talks about this company selling off its waste collection subsidiaries.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: stock price is probably still reasonable. Stock rose some 32.8% last year and some 10.99% so far this year. Dividends increased 25% in 2013 and 20% in 2014. So over the past two years the capital gain is close to the dividend increases.
You expect that that the capital gains and the dividend increase would be roughly the same. So, analysts' expectations of 5.16% further rise would put the capital gain increase a bit higher than dividend increases. See my spreadsheet at css.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, July 24, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Contrans Group Inc. is engaged in freight transportation. It provides freight transportation services to shippers located in Canada, as well as in the eastern, mid-western and southern United States. Its web site is here Contrans.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, July 24, 2014
Contrans Group Inc.
I do not own this stock of Contrans Group Inc. (TSX-CSS, OTC-CTFIF). I got this stock off an article in the Globe and Mail called "15 dividend stocks where payouts are expected to grow". This number cruncher article dated in February 2013 was looking for companies with earnings growth over the last 12 months and a decent Dividend Payout Ratio. (You may not be able to access this article beyond the pay wall.)
This Company used to be an income trust of Contrans Income Fund in 2008 and converted to a corporation in 2009. Dividends were cut some 74.4% between 2008 and 2010. Dividends were flat when it was an income trust, but since changing to a corporation, they have been increasing their dividends. The last dividend increase was for 20% in 2014.
Dividend payments are down over the past 5 and 10 years, but this does not reflect on the current dividend policy. The dividend has a very good yield at 4.07%. The median dividend increase over the past 4 years is at 18.75%.
As the article I read pointed out, the Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS was at 55% for 2013 and has a 5 year median of 67%. However, this DPR for EPS has been trending lower over the past 5 years. The DPR for CFPS was 26% for 2013 and has a 5 year median of 31%.
The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is at 20.75% and 6.73% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends was 4.69% and 6.24% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains was 16.06% and 0.49% per year. In the future, dividends should be a lower portion of the total return, but there is reason to think that capital gains portion of the return will increase. That is because capital gains tend to match dividend increases for dividend growth stocks.
The company has two classes of shares, Class A shares with one vote each (these are sold on the TSX) and Class B with 10 votes each. Class B shares are owned by insiders. The total outstanding shares have increased by 2.7% and 3.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues and have decreased due to Buy Backs.
Revenue, earnings and cash flow growth over the past 5 and 10 years has not been great, but the company was hit hard by the 2008 recession. Revenue, earnings and cash flow has been growing over the past 3 years up to 2013. Because outstanding shares have been growing, per share values are important.
Revenue has grown at 3.2% and 6.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has been flat over the past 5 years and has grown at 3.6% per year over the past 10 years. EPS is down by 3.2% per year over the past 5 years and up by 1.4% over the past 10 years. . Cash Flow per Share has been flat over the past 5 years and has grown at 3.5% per year over the past 10 years.
The Return on Equity has only been below 10% 1 year in the past 10 years and that was in 2010. The ROE for 2013 was 14.8% and the 5 year median is 14.8%. There is no difference between the net income and the comprehensive income for this company. This could point to the earnings being of good quality.
The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is a little low at 1.04. If you add in cash flow after dividends the ratio becomes 1.67. The Debt Ratio is quite good at 2.05. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also quite good at 1.95 and 0.95.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Stock. The dividend yield and the dividend growth is currently quite good. See my spreadsheet at css.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, July 25, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Contrans Group Inc. is engaged in freight transportation. It provides freight transportation services to shippers located in Canada, as well as in the eastern, mid-western and southern United States. Its web site is here Contrans.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This Company used to be an income trust of Contrans Income Fund in 2008 and converted to a corporation in 2009. Dividends were cut some 74.4% between 2008 and 2010. Dividends were flat when it was an income trust, but since changing to a corporation, they have been increasing their dividends. The last dividend increase was for 20% in 2014.
Dividend payments are down over the past 5 and 10 years, but this does not reflect on the current dividend policy. The dividend has a very good yield at 4.07%. The median dividend increase over the past 4 years is at 18.75%.
As the article I read pointed out, the Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS was at 55% for 2013 and has a 5 year median of 67%. However, this DPR for EPS has been trending lower over the past 5 years. The DPR for CFPS was 26% for 2013 and has a 5 year median of 31%.
The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is at 20.75% and 6.73% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends was 4.69% and 6.24% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains was 16.06% and 0.49% per year. In the future, dividends should be a lower portion of the total return, but there is reason to think that capital gains portion of the return will increase. That is because capital gains tend to match dividend increases for dividend growth stocks.
The company has two classes of shares, Class A shares with one vote each (these are sold on the TSX) and Class B with 10 votes each. Class B shares are owned by insiders. The total outstanding shares have increased by 2.7% and 3.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues and have decreased due to Buy Backs.
Revenue, earnings and cash flow growth over the past 5 and 10 years has not been great, but the company was hit hard by the 2008 recession. Revenue, earnings and cash flow has been growing over the past 3 years up to 2013. Because outstanding shares have been growing, per share values are important.
Revenue has grown at 3.2% and 6.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has been flat over the past 5 years and has grown at 3.6% per year over the past 10 years. EPS is down by 3.2% per year over the past 5 years and up by 1.4% over the past 10 years. . Cash Flow per Share has been flat over the past 5 years and has grown at 3.5% per year over the past 10 years.
The Return on Equity has only been below 10% 1 year in the past 10 years and that was in 2010. The ROE for 2013 was 14.8% and the 5 year median is 14.8%. There is no difference between the net income and the comprehensive income for this company. This could point to the earnings being of good quality.
The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is a little low at 1.04. If you add in cash flow after dividends the ratio becomes 1.67. The Debt Ratio is quite good at 2.05. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also quite good at 1.95 and 0.95.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Stock. The dividend yield and the dividend growth is currently quite good. See my spreadsheet at css.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, July 25, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Contrans Group Inc. is engaged in freight transportation. It provides freight transportation services to shippers located in Canada, as well as in the eastern, mid-western and southern United States. Its web site is here Contrans.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Canam Group Inc.
On my other blog I am today giving answers, as best as I can, to other questions that should probably be asked of a dividend stock portfolio continue...
I do not own this stock of Canam Group Inc. (TSX-CAM, OTC- CNMGA). I started following this stock in September 2009 as I read a favorable review on it. I am interested in small cap companies that pay dividends, so this company fits into what I want to investigate.
I bought this at the end part of 2011 because I thought that the market had gone overboard in punishing the stock because of a dividend cut and the company was having a tough time. I thought I could make a few thousand dollars for my RRIF account and that is what I did. However, looking back at this it appears I sold far too soon.
This stock is not the normal dividend growth stock I generally like investing in. This stock has dividends, but they only pay them when they can afford to and this means that stopped dividends on occasion. They have paid dividends in 6 of the last 10 years. They have just resumed dividend payments in 2014 after stopping them mid-way through 2011.
I made a return of 105% when I held this stock for a short period. If I waited another year I would have made over 200%. Investors over the past 5 and 10 years have had a total return of 14.77% and 11.22% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gain is 13.85% and 9.85% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is 0.92% and 1.37% per year.
Revenue, Earnings, and Cash Flow has just start to increase over the past 2 years. Analysts expect that this will continue over the next few years.
The company's debt ratios are good with the Liquidity Ratio at 2.03 and the 5 year median at 2.14 and the Debt Ratio at 1.98 and the 5 year ratio at 1.98. This suggests that the company has survivability. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high at 2.03 and 1.03.
The analysts' recommendations on this stock are Strong Buy and Buy with the consensus recommendation a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $17.80. This implies a total return of 31.67% with 1.17% from dividends and 30.50% from capital gains.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: could make money on this stock. Recessions seem to hit this company hard. It was just recovering form 2000, when it got hit with 2008. Also, when they have problems, they cut dividends and then the stock price gets slammed. The stock price recovers well when they restart dividends. Is there money to be made in the ups and downs of this company? This could be fun. See my spreadsheet at cam.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Canam Group specializes in the design and fabrication of construction products and solutions for the commercial, industrial, institutional, multi-unit residential, and bridge and highway infrastructure markets. This company has offices in Canada, US, India, Romania and Hong Kong. Its web site is here Canam.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Canam Group Inc. (TSX-CAM, OTC- CNMGA). I started following this stock in September 2009 as I read a favorable review on it. I am interested in small cap companies that pay dividends, so this company fits into what I want to investigate.
I bought this at the end part of 2011 because I thought that the market had gone overboard in punishing the stock because of a dividend cut and the company was having a tough time. I thought I could make a few thousand dollars for my RRIF account and that is what I did. However, looking back at this it appears I sold far too soon.
This stock is not the normal dividend growth stock I generally like investing in. This stock has dividends, but they only pay them when they can afford to and this means that stopped dividends on occasion. They have paid dividends in 6 of the last 10 years. They have just resumed dividend payments in 2014 after stopping them mid-way through 2011.
I made a return of 105% when I held this stock for a short period. If I waited another year I would have made over 200%. Investors over the past 5 and 10 years have had a total return of 14.77% and 11.22% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gain is 13.85% and 9.85% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is 0.92% and 1.37% per year.
Revenue, Earnings, and Cash Flow has just start to increase over the past 2 years. Analysts expect that this will continue over the next few years.
The company's debt ratios are good with the Liquidity Ratio at 2.03 and the 5 year median at 2.14 and the Debt Ratio at 1.98 and the 5 year ratio at 1.98. This suggests that the company has survivability. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high at 2.03 and 1.03.
The analysts' recommendations on this stock are Strong Buy and Buy with the consensus recommendation a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $17.80. This implies a total return of 31.67% with 1.17% from dividends and 30.50% from capital gains.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: could make money on this stock. Recessions seem to hit this company hard. It was just recovering form 2000, when it got hit with 2008. Also, when they have problems, they cut dividends and then the stock price gets slammed. The stock price recovers well when they restart dividends. Is there money to be made in the ups and downs of this company? This could be fun. See my spreadsheet at cam.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Canam Group specializes in the design and fabrication of construction products and solutions for the commercial, industrial, institutional, multi-unit residential, and bridge and highway infrastructure markets. This company has offices in Canada, US, India, Romania and Hong Kong. Its web site is here Canam.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
Ballard Power Systems Inc.
I do not own this stock of Ballard Power Systems Inc. (TSX-BLD, NASDAQ-BLDP), but I used to. Back in 1997, I read about Ballard and fell in love with the idea of cars running with fuel cells. I could help save the environment and also make some money. It was very attractive. I sold this stock in 2006 because it had lost its attraction. It did not seem that Ballard fuel cells would be in any car anytime soon.
I lost on this stock by 5.32% per year or almost 38% of the money I invested. I was ahead in 2000, but the stock started to fall in October 2000 and never recovered. The stock has been rising since early 2013 and has continued to rise in 2014. However, it is still some 75% lower than when I bought it in 1997.
Have investors made money lately? Over the past 5 years investors have made 17.57% per year. This was all capital gain, of course. This capital gain could also disappear again as quickly as it came. Over the 10 years investors have lost 5.7% per year. Again, this is all capital loss.
The good news is that this company does have revenue. The bad news is that it does not make any profit or cash flow from this revenue. Revenue peaked in 2003 and has fluctuated, but basically has been declining since. However, analysts expect revenues to pick up again over the next few year.
As far as earnings go, the company had one year of profit in the past 10 years and that was in 2005. The company has had no positive cash flow in any year in the past 10 years.
Another good thing is the debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio is 2.30, the Debt Ratio is 2.30 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.71 and 0.71. These are all great ratios.
There are not many analysts following this stock. When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would therefore be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $3.88 US$. This is some 6.3% lower than today's US$ price of $4.14.
There is an investors news alert on Ballard on Market News Call after the stock jumped up 5% today. There is also a news article in the Wall Street PR about Ballard Power profiting from Toyota producing a fuel cell car. However, I heard all this before in 1997 when I first invested in this company. The fuel cell car went nowhere then. Is it different this time?
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: invest on hope, not financials. That is people are still probably investing in this company as I did, on hope, not because of the financials. I thought it was good that the company had revenue at the time I bought it. However, at some point a company must make earnings and cash flow. On the other hand, this company has survived a long time without much of either. See my spreadsheet at bld.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Ballard Power Systems, Inc. is a global leader in PEM (proton exchange membrane) fuel cell technology. They provide clean energy fuel cell products enabling optimized power systems for a range of applications. Ballard offers smarter solutions for a clean energy future. Its web site is here Ballard.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I lost on this stock by 5.32% per year or almost 38% of the money I invested. I was ahead in 2000, but the stock started to fall in October 2000 and never recovered. The stock has been rising since early 2013 and has continued to rise in 2014. However, it is still some 75% lower than when I bought it in 1997.
Have investors made money lately? Over the past 5 years investors have made 17.57% per year. This was all capital gain, of course. This capital gain could also disappear again as quickly as it came. Over the 10 years investors have lost 5.7% per year. Again, this is all capital loss.
The good news is that this company does have revenue. The bad news is that it does not make any profit or cash flow from this revenue. Revenue peaked in 2003 and has fluctuated, but basically has been declining since. However, analysts expect revenues to pick up again over the next few year.
As far as earnings go, the company had one year of profit in the past 10 years and that was in 2005. The company has had no positive cash flow in any year in the past 10 years.
Another good thing is the debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio is 2.30, the Debt Ratio is 2.30 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.71 and 0.71. These are all great ratios.
There are not many analysts following this stock. When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would therefore be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $3.88 US$. This is some 6.3% lower than today's US$ price of $4.14.
There is an investors news alert on Ballard on Market News Call after the stock jumped up 5% today. There is also a news article in the Wall Street PR about Ballard Power profiting from Toyota producing a fuel cell car. However, I heard all this before in 1997 when I first invested in this company. The fuel cell car went nowhere then. Is it different this time?
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: invest on hope, not financials. That is people are still probably investing in this company as I did, on hope, not because of the financials. I thought it was good that the company had revenue at the time I bought it. However, at some point a company must make earnings and cash flow. On the other hand, this company has survived a long time without much of either. See my spreadsheet at bld.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Ballard Power Systems, Inc. is a global leader in PEM (proton exchange membrane) fuel cell technology. They provide clean energy fuel cell products enabling optimized power systems for a range of applications. Ballard offers smarter solutions for a clean energy future. Its web site is here Ballard.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, July 21, 2014
Artis REIT 2
On my other blog I am today giving answers, as best as I can to recent questions asked about having a dividend stock portfolio continue...
I do not own this stock of Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF). Early in 2013, this company was mentioned as a good REIT to own. A number of people I correspond with mentioned this REIT. However, my first view of it is not positive. Distributions have only increased by 0.57% over the past 5 years. This is extremely low and way below inflation.
In the insider trading report there is a minimal about insider buying and insider selling with a small net insider selling. The outstanding shares were increase by around 221,000 shares with a book value of $3.5M and this amount of shares were worth around $3.3M at the end of 2013. This number of shares is way less than one half of one per cent of outstanding shares.
There is insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $8.0M and an officer with shares worth around $5.4M. There are not only stock options but there are other stock options like vehicles called Restricted Units. So, there is a moderate amount of insider ownership and stock options.
You cannot do any stock price testing using Price/Earnings per share Ratio as the 5 year low, median and high medina P/E Ratios are 3.18, 3.59 and 4.01. These are so low they are unrealistic to use in a stock price test. The 10 year ratios are even worse because they are negative. The current P/E Ratio is 20.55 based on a stock price of $15.82 and 2014 EPS of $0.77. On an absolute basis, a P/E of 20.55 does seem a bit on the high side for a REIT.
I get a Graham Price of $17.20. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.71, 1.29 and 1.77. The current P/GP Ratio of 0.92 says that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.01. The current P/B Ratio is 0.93 a value some 8% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 8.35% a value some 18% higher than the current dividend yield of 6.83%. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is rather high. The historical average dividend yield is even higher at 12.77%. However, the historical median dividend yield is 7.13% and using these figures in the test gives a stock price that is relatively reasonable.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold Recommendations. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $17.10. This implies a total return of 14.925 with 8.09% from capital gains and 6.83% from distributions.
An article by Biz Journals talks about a recent office purchase by Artis REIT. A Motley Fool article talks about now may be a good time to be in REITs like Artis. The blogger called the Dividend Blogger talked about 6 REITs to consider in August 2013.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is reasonable for a REIT. See my spreadsheet at ax.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, July 18, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Artis REIT's portfolio is comprised of industrial, retail, and office space in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Artis REIT.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF). Early in 2013, this company was mentioned as a good REIT to own. A number of people I correspond with mentioned this REIT. However, my first view of it is not positive. Distributions have only increased by 0.57% over the past 5 years. This is extremely low and way below inflation.
In the insider trading report there is a minimal about insider buying and insider selling with a small net insider selling. The outstanding shares were increase by around 221,000 shares with a book value of $3.5M and this amount of shares were worth around $3.3M at the end of 2013. This number of shares is way less than one half of one per cent of outstanding shares.
There is insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $8.0M and an officer with shares worth around $5.4M. There are not only stock options but there are other stock options like vehicles called Restricted Units. So, there is a moderate amount of insider ownership and stock options.
You cannot do any stock price testing using Price/Earnings per share Ratio as the 5 year low, median and high medina P/E Ratios are 3.18, 3.59 and 4.01. These are so low they are unrealistic to use in a stock price test. The 10 year ratios are even worse because they are negative. The current P/E Ratio is 20.55 based on a stock price of $15.82 and 2014 EPS of $0.77. On an absolute basis, a P/E of 20.55 does seem a bit on the high side for a REIT.
I get a Graham Price of $17.20. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.71, 1.29 and 1.77. The current P/GP Ratio of 0.92 says that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.01. The current P/B Ratio is 0.93 a value some 8% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 8.35% a value some 18% higher than the current dividend yield of 6.83%. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is rather high. The historical average dividend yield is even higher at 12.77%. However, the historical median dividend yield is 7.13% and using these figures in the test gives a stock price that is relatively reasonable.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold Recommendations. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $17.10. This implies a total return of 14.925 with 8.09% from capital gains and 6.83% from distributions.
An article by Biz Journals talks about a recent office purchase by Artis REIT. A Motley Fool article talks about now may be a good time to be in REITs like Artis. The blogger called the Dividend Blogger talked about 6 REITs to consider in August 2013.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is reasonable for a REIT. See my spreadsheet at ax.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, July 18, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Artis REIT's portfolio is comprised of industrial, retail, and office space in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Artis REIT.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, July 18, 2014
Artis REIT
I do not own this stock of Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF). Early in 2013, this company was mentioned as a good REIT to own. A number of people I correspond with mentioned this REIT. However, my first view of it is not positive. Distributions have only increased by 0.57% over the past 5 years. This is extremely low and way below inflation.
This REIT has not been around very long having only been listed on the TSX since 2004. It was listed as Westfield REIT. It was rebranded as Artis REIT in 2007. In a lot of cases I do not have a full 10 years of data.
Dividends were increased a bit at first at just over 1% in 2008 and 2009. However, they have been flat ever since. The problem is that they had quite a few years of earnings losses and only started to have positive earnings in 2011. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2013 was 95% for EPS and 72% for CFPS. They are expected to be even higher in 2014 at 140% and 186% respectively.
Analysts do not expect them to raise their dividends anytime soon. I do not invest in companies that do not raise their dividends and so I would not invest in this company. For REIT I expect dividends to go up around the rate of inflation as dividend yield are generally quite high. A lot of REITs do not rise dividends every year, but they do increase them. For this REIT the dividend yield is currently at 6.83%.
Of course because they are a REIT, analysts look at Dividend Payout Ratios for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) and Funds from Operations (FFO). The DPR for AFFO for 2013 was at 86% and for FFO was at 74%.
Investors have been earning money from this stock. The 5 and 10 year total return to date is 15.25% and 21.80% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to distributions is at 8.44% and 11.89% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 6.81% and 9.91% per year. A problem is that the stock price has currently stalled and earnings are expected to drop this year by over 30%.
Outstanding shares have increased by 31% and 70% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. Revenues have grown nicely, but Revenue per Share has not. Cash Flow has grown, but CFPS has not. You cannot measure growth in earnings when earnings are negative (or you have earning losses).
Revenues have grown at 27% and 111% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has decreased by 4% and increased by 24% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages for RPS, you get growth over the past 5 years at 5% per year.
AFFO has grown at 7.6% per year over the past 3 years. The AFFO has only been used for a few years. The FFO has declined by 2.4% and increased by 12% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. If you look at 5 year running averages over the past 4 years, the increase in FFO is up 1% per year.
Cash Flow has grown at 37% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. CFPS has grown at 4.2% and 32% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. If you look at 5 year running averages over the past 5 years, CFPS has grown at 10% per year.
There has not been much in the way of Return on Equity because of earnings losses. The ROE for 2013 was just 7.7%. The ROE on comprehensive income was a bit better at 8.8%. So what earnings they have seem to be solid.
Another place where this company falls short is with debt ratios, specifically, the Liquidity Ratio which for 2013 was at 0.21. When this ratio is less than 1.00, it means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. If you take off the current portion of the longer term debt the Liquidity Ratio is 0.82. If you add in the cash flow after distributions, the ratio is 1.42. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.97. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.03 and 1.03.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: REIT, but not dividend growth stock. See my spreadsheet at ax.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, July 21, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Artis REIT's portfolio is comprised of industrial, retail, and office space in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Artis REIT.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This REIT has not been around very long having only been listed on the TSX since 2004. It was listed as Westfield REIT. It was rebranded as Artis REIT in 2007. In a lot of cases I do not have a full 10 years of data.
Dividends were increased a bit at first at just over 1% in 2008 and 2009. However, they have been flat ever since. The problem is that they had quite a few years of earnings losses and only started to have positive earnings in 2011. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2013 was 95% for EPS and 72% for CFPS. They are expected to be even higher in 2014 at 140% and 186% respectively.
Analysts do not expect them to raise their dividends anytime soon. I do not invest in companies that do not raise their dividends and so I would not invest in this company. For REIT I expect dividends to go up around the rate of inflation as dividend yield are generally quite high. A lot of REITs do not rise dividends every year, but they do increase them. For this REIT the dividend yield is currently at 6.83%.
Of course because they are a REIT, analysts look at Dividend Payout Ratios for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) and Funds from Operations (FFO). The DPR for AFFO for 2013 was at 86% and for FFO was at 74%.
Investors have been earning money from this stock. The 5 and 10 year total return to date is 15.25% and 21.80% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to distributions is at 8.44% and 11.89% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 6.81% and 9.91% per year. A problem is that the stock price has currently stalled and earnings are expected to drop this year by over 30%.
Outstanding shares have increased by 31% and 70% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. Revenues have grown nicely, but Revenue per Share has not. Cash Flow has grown, but CFPS has not. You cannot measure growth in earnings when earnings are negative (or you have earning losses).
Revenues have grown at 27% and 111% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has decreased by 4% and increased by 24% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages for RPS, you get growth over the past 5 years at 5% per year.
AFFO has grown at 7.6% per year over the past 3 years. The AFFO has only been used for a few years. The FFO has declined by 2.4% and increased by 12% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. If you look at 5 year running averages over the past 4 years, the increase in FFO is up 1% per year.
Cash Flow has grown at 37% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. CFPS has grown at 4.2% and 32% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. If you look at 5 year running averages over the past 5 years, CFPS has grown at 10% per year.
There has not been much in the way of Return on Equity because of earnings losses. The ROE for 2013 was just 7.7%. The ROE on comprehensive income was a bit better at 8.8%. So what earnings they have seem to be solid.
Another place where this company falls short is with debt ratios, specifically, the Liquidity Ratio which for 2013 was at 0.21. When this ratio is less than 1.00, it means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. If you take off the current portion of the longer term debt the Liquidity Ratio is 0.82. If you add in the cash flow after distributions, the ratio is 1.42. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.97. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.03 and 1.03.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: REIT, but not dividend growth stock. See my spreadsheet at ax.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, July 21, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Artis REIT's portfolio is comprised of industrial, retail, and office space in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Artis REIT.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, July 17, 2014
Atlantic Power Corp.
I do not own this stock of Atlantic Power Corp. (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT). Because I like utility companies and in 2010, I have read two columns that recommended this particular utility company (TSX-ATP), I decided to investigate it. This company is in the TSX Utility Index and this is perhaps this is why it is recommended?
This stock was an issued on the TSX as an income trust in 2004. However in 2009, it changed its structure to a corporation. Dividends were increased until 2012. In 2013, dividends were decreased by 65% after the company had 4 years of losses. The financial year of 2013 also resulted in a loss. A number of analysts believe that the dividends will be cut again in 2014.
For Dividend Payout Ratios, we can only look at them from a cash flow per share perspective because this company is has negative EPS. The 5 year median PDR for CFPS is 90%. The DPR for CFPS for 2013 was 63%.
I know that some analysts are still looking at DPR in regards to Distributable Cash and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). For Distributable Cash the 2013 DPR is 53%. For AFFO, the DPR is 60.7%. Some analysts are quoting AFFO for 2014 and they expect it to be around a negative $0.05. I do not like using these measurements as this company is no longer an income trust. Even at that, there would seem to be no analyst that thinks this company can cover distributions in 2014.
Outstanding shares have increased by 14.5% and 14.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, Stock Options and DRIP. Growth is good in Revenue, but not in Revenue per Share over the past 5 years. Growth is good for cash flow over the past 10 years, but not over the past 5 years. This is the same pattern for growth cash flow per share. There is no growth in earnings as earnings have been negative for the last 5 years.
The Revenue has grown at 11% and 46% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has declined at 3.5% and grown at 28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow has grown at 2% and 40% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has declined by 11% and grown by 22% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. These figures are in US$ as the company reports in US$.
The debt ratios are fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is 0.96. If you include cash flow after dividends, this ratio is 1.18. There is the current portion of the long term debt included in the Liquidity Ratio and if this is subtracted for 2013, the ratio is 2.16. The Debt Ratio for 2013 is 1.48. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2013 are 2.91 and 1.97, respectively.
As far as testing the current stock price, I cannot use the Price/Earnings per Share Ratios as the company has no profits. This is the same reason I cannot use the Graham Price. If you look at Price/Book Value per Share, the 10 year median value is 2.15 and the current P/B Ratio is some 61% lower at 0.85. This stock test says that the stock price is relatively cheap. On an absolute basis, a P/B Ratio of 0.85 is very low and shows a cheap price.
The Price/Cash Flow per Share 10 year median ratio is 9.61. The current P/CF Ratio is 5.31 a value some 45% lower. This stock test says that the stock price is relatively cheap. On an absolute basis, a P/CF Ratio of 5.31 is low and shows a cheap price.
The 10 year median Price/Revenue per Share or P/S Ratio is 2.68 and the current P/S Ratio is 0.87 a value 68% lower. This stock test says that the stock price is relatively cheap. On an absolute basis, a P/S Ratio of 0.85 is very low and shows a cheap price.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. The consensus recommendation is Underperform. The 12 month stock price consensus is $3.53. This implies a total loss of 6.21%. The capital loss would be 15.75% and the dividends are at 9.55%. However, I do not think you can count on getting the dividends, so loss could be larger.
The Investing Daily site has put out an article on this company called "Atlantic Power Dividend in Jeopardy Again". It is dated November 2013, but I do not think things have changed much. The site Mideast Time talks about analysts' ratings on Atlantic Power. The loss for the first quarter at $0.16 and lower than the analysts' consensus loss of $0.25.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: company is struggling but possibly cheap. See my spreadsheet at atp.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Atlantic Power Corporation is an independent power producer that owns interests in a diversified fleet of power generation and transmission projects located in the United States. This company has a collection of gas-fired plants in the US and is generally in the lower cost quadrant of generation in its region. ATP owns interests in a diversified portfolio of independent, non-utility power generation projects and one transmission line situated in major U.S. markets. Its web site is here Atlantic Power.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This stock was an issued on the TSX as an income trust in 2004. However in 2009, it changed its structure to a corporation. Dividends were increased until 2012. In 2013, dividends were decreased by 65% after the company had 4 years of losses. The financial year of 2013 also resulted in a loss. A number of analysts believe that the dividends will be cut again in 2014.
For Dividend Payout Ratios, we can only look at them from a cash flow per share perspective because this company is has negative EPS. The 5 year median PDR for CFPS is 90%. The DPR for CFPS for 2013 was 63%.
I know that some analysts are still looking at DPR in regards to Distributable Cash and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). For Distributable Cash the 2013 DPR is 53%. For AFFO, the DPR is 60.7%. Some analysts are quoting AFFO for 2014 and they expect it to be around a negative $0.05. I do not like using these measurements as this company is no longer an income trust. Even at that, there would seem to be no analyst that thinks this company can cover distributions in 2014.
Outstanding shares have increased by 14.5% and 14.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, Stock Options and DRIP. Growth is good in Revenue, but not in Revenue per Share over the past 5 years. Growth is good for cash flow over the past 10 years, but not over the past 5 years. This is the same pattern for growth cash flow per share. There is no growth in earnings as earnings have been negative for the last 5 years.
The Revenue has grown at 11% and 46% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has declined at 3.5% and grown at 28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow has grown at 2% and 40% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has declined by 11% and grown by 22% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. These figures are in US$ as the company reports in US$.
The debt ratios are fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is 0.96. If you include cash flow after dividends, this ratio is 1.18. There is the current portion of the long term debt included in the Liquidity Ratio and if this is subtracted for 2013, the ratio is 2.16. The Debt Ratio for 2013 is 1.48. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2013 are 2.91 and 1.97, respectively.
As far as testing the current stock price, I cannot use the Price/Earnings per Share Ratios as the company has no profits. This is the same reason I cannot use the Graham Price. If you look at Price/Book Value per Share, the 10 year median value is 2.15 and the current P/B Ratio is some 61% lower at 0.85. This stock test says that the stock price is relatively cheap. On an absolute basis, a P/B Ratio of 0.85 is very low and shows a cheap price.
The Price/Cash Flow per Share 10 year median ratio is 9.61. The current P/CF Ratio is 5.31 a value some 45% lower. This stock test says that the stock price is relatively cheap. On an absolute basis, a P/CF Ratio of 5.31 is low and shows a cheap price.
The 10 year median Price/Revenue per Share or P/S Ratio is 2.68 and the current P/S Ratio is 0.87 a value 68% lower. This stock test says that the stock price is relatively cheap. On an absolute basis, a P/S Ratio of 0.85 is very low and shows a cheap price.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. The consensus recommendation is Underperform. The 12 month stock price consensus is $3.53. This implies a total loss of 6.21%. The capital loss would be 15.75% and the dividends are at 9.55%. However, I do not think you can count on getting the dividends, so loss could be larger.
The Investing Daily site has put out an article on this company called "Atlantic Power Dividend in Jeopardy Again". It is dated November 2013, but I do not think things have changed much. The site Mideast Time talks about analysts' ratings on Atlantic Power. The loss for the first quarter at $0.16 and lower than the analysts' consensus loss of $0.25.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: company is struggling but possibly cheap. See my spreadsheet at atp.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Atlantic Power Corporation is an independent power producer that owns interests in a diversified fleet of power generation and transmission projects located in the United States. This company has a collection of gas-fired plants in the US and is generally in the lower cost quadrant of generation in its region. ATP owns interests in a diversified portfolio of independent, non-utility power generation projects and one transmission line situated in major U.S. markets. Its web site is here Atlantic Power.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. 2
On my other blog I am today writing about making big returns continue...
I own this stock of Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF). I first bought this stock in July 2008. I was looking for something to buy. This company is a dividend paying growth stock that would also be considered to be a small cap with a capitalization of around $1.15 billion. Insiders are currently buying this stock. It has great growth and it is in information technology, a favourite sector of mine.
When I look at insider trading, I find some $5.7M of insider selling and some $5.6M of net insider selling. There is a small amount of insider buying. Net insider selling is one half of one percent of the market cap. That is a low amount.
Last year the outstanding shares where increased for stock options by 1.08M shares (or around 1.38%) with a book value of $14.4M. This number of shares was worth $15.7M at the end of March 2014. The prior year had the outstanding shares increased for stock options by 0.9M shares (or 1.2%) with a book value of $10M and this number of shares was worth $9.6M at the end of March 2013.
For insiders, the stock options are very good and much higher than most companies give out. Generally, outstanding shares are only increased less than one half of one percent for stock options. On the other hand shareholders have also made a lot of money on this stock.
There is insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $56.3M (and up from last year when he owned $11.9M). Also the CFO owns shares worth $1.3M, a director owns shares worth around $2.9M and the Chairman owns shares worth around $6.5M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 21.31, 22.78 and 27.91. These are a lot higher than the corresponding 10 year values of 12.60, 17.09 and 21.11. The current P/E Ratio is 35.71 based on a stock price of $14.64 and 2014 EPS of $0.41. By this stock price test, the current stock price is relatively expensive. (Although this is a tech and valuations for such stocks can get very high.)
I get a Graham Price of $2.73. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.78, 2.33 and 2.89. The current P/GP Ratio is 5.37 based on a stock price of $14.64. By this stock price test, the current stock price is relatively expensive. (It is also quite expensive on an absolute basis.)
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 7.20. The current P/B Ratio is 18.17 a value some 152% higher. I get a current BVPS of $0.81. A P/B Ratio of 18.17 is very high on an absolute basis. By this stock price test, the current stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a current dividend yield of 2.73%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.63% a value some 24% higher. The historical average dividend yield and historical median dividend yields are 4.93% and 3.52%, values some 45% and 24% higher than the current dividend yield. By this stock price tests, the current stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $16.00. This implies a total return of 12.02% with 2.73% from dividends and 9.29% from capital gains. This is not much a return from capital gains for a buy on a stock that already has high valuations. (A few analysts are concerned about the company's current high valuations.)
There is a good review of this stock on a blog calledInternational Growth Stocks. The Times Colonist talks about the company increasing its dividends and doing a 2 for 1 stock split.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Company is overbought. I still think that this is a great company and that I will earn good money from it still, but the current valuations are too high. See my spreadsheet at hse.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, July 15, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. is a computer software technology and consulting company serving the oil and gas industry. CMG is the leading supplier of advanced processes reservoir modelling software in the world with a blue chip client base of international oil companies and technology centers in approximately 50 countries. Its web site is here Computer Modelling Group.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF). I first bought this stock in July 2008. I was looking for something to buy. This company is a dividend paying growth stock that would also be considered to be a small cap with a capitalization of around $1.15 billion. Insiders are currently buying this stock. It has great growth and it is in information technology, a favourite sector of mine.
When I look at insider trading, I find some $5.7M of insider selling and some $5.6M of net insider selling. There is a small amount of insider buying. Net insider selling is one half of one percent of the market cap. That is a low amount.
Last year the outstanding shares where increased for stock options by 1.08M shares (or around 1.38%) with a book value of $14.4M. This number of shares was worth $15.7M at the end of March 2014. The prior year had the outstanding shares increased for stock options by 0.9M shares (or 1.2%) with a book value of $10M and this number of shares was worth $9.6M at the end of March 2013.
For insiders, the stock options are very good and much higher than most companies give out. Generally, outstanding shares are only increased less than one half of one percent for stock options. On the other hand shareholders have also made a lot of money on this stock.
There is insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $56.3M (and up from last year when he owned $11.9M). Also the CFO owns shares worth $1.3M, a director owns shares worth around $2.9M and the Chairman owns shares worth around $6.5M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 21.31, 22.78 and 27.91. These are a lot higher than the corresponding 10 year values of 12.60, 17.09 and 21.11. The current P/E Ratio is 35.71 based on a stock price of $14.64 and 2014 EPS of $0.41. By this stock price test, the current stock price is relatively expensive. (Although this is a tech and valuations for such stocks can get very high.)
I get a Graham Price of $2.73. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.78, 2.33 and 2.89. The current P/GP Ratio is 5.37 based on a stock price of $14.64. By this stock price test, the current stock price is relatively expensive. (It is also quite expensive on an absolute basis.)
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 7.20. The current P/B Ratio is 18.17 a value some 152% higher. I get a current BVPS of $0.81. A P/B Ratio of 18.17 is very high on an absolute basis. By this stock price test, the current stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a current dividend yield of 2.73%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.63% a value some 24% higher. The historical average dividend yield and historical median dividend yields are 4.93% and 3.52%, values some 45% and 24% higher than the current dividend yield. By this stock price tests, the current stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $16.00. This implies a total return of 12.02% with 2.73% from dividends and 9.29% from capital gains. This is not much a return from capital gains for a buy on a stock that already has high valuations. (A few analysts are concerned about the company's current high valuations.)
There is a good review of this stock on a blog calledInternational Growth Stocks. The Times Colonist talks about the company increasing its dividends and doing a 2 for 1 stock split.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Company is overbought. I still think that this is a great company and that I will earn good money from it still, but the current valuations are too high. See my spreadsheet at hse.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, July 15, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. is a computer software technology and consulting company serving the oil and gas industry. CMG is the leading supplier of advanced processes reservoir modelling software in the world with a blue chip client base of international oil companies and technology centers in approximately 50 countries. Its web site is here Computer Modelling Group.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Computer Modelling Group Ltd.
I own this stock of Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF). I first bought this stock in July 2008. I was looking for something to buy. This company is a dividend paying growth stock that would also be considered to be a small cap with a capitalization of around $115 million. Insiders are currently buying this stock. It has great growth and it is in information technology, a favourite sector of mine.
Not only has this stock given out special dividends each year, usually around $0.03 per share, they have also increased their dividends over the past 5 and 9 years at the rate of 23% and 38% per year. They are also paying out over 100% of the earnings and 100% of the cash flow between the regular and special dividends.
The thing is they are selling software. Once the software is built they can sell it over and over again to different companies. They are basically given out in dividends all that they can.
Since I initially bought this stock I have made a return of 38.92% per year with 33.13% per year from capital gains and 5.79% per year from dividends. The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 36.44% per year and 46.52% per year. The portion of these returns attributable to dividends is at 5.20% and 8.17% per year and the portion of these returns attributable to capital gains is at 31.24% and 38.35% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 2.6% and 2.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and they have decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow has been good, especially over the past 10 years.
Revenue per Share is up by 8.34% and 16.96% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS are up by 8.1% and 23.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has increased by 5.75% and 19.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The 5 year grown is low because exactly 5 years ago was a year of very good growth for the company. If you look at 5 year running averages, the 5 year growth is much better. For example, using 5 year running averages the Cash Flow per Share is at 19.4% and 25.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Ever since the company started to earn profits in 2001, the Return on Equity has been over 10% each year. The ROE for the financial year ending on March 31, 2014 is 43.7%. The 5 year median is 48%. The comprehensive income is the same as the net income.
All the debt ratios are very good. The Liquidity Ratio is 2.73. The Debt Ratios is 2.70. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.59 and 0.59.
I have done very well in this stock. It has just recently done another 2 for 1 stock split. This is a tech stock, so I sold half my shares in 2011 to lock in my profit. Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Company is a dividend growth tech stock. See my spreadsheet at hse.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, July 16, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. is a computer software technology and consulting company serving the oil and gas industry. CMG is the leading supplier of advanced processes reservoir modelling software in the world with a blue chip client base of international oil companies and technology centers in approximately 50 countries. Its web site is here Computer Modelling Group.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Not only has this stock given out special dividends each year, usually around $0.03 per share, they have also increased their dividends over the past 5 and 9 years at the rate of 23% and 38% per year. They are also paying out over 100% of the earnings and 100% of the cash flow between the regular and special dividends.
The thing is they are selling software. Once the software is built they can sell it over and over again to different companies. They are basically given out in dividends all that they can.
Since I initially bought this stock I have made a return of 38.92% per year with 33.13% per year from capital gains and 5.79% per year from dividends. The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 36.44% per year and 46.52% per year. The portion of these returns attributable to dividends is at 5.20% and 8.17% per year and the portion of these returns attributable to capital gains is at 31.24% and 38.35% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 2.6% and 2.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and they have decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow has been good, especially over the past 10 years.
Revenue per Share is up by 8.34% and 16.96% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS are up by 8.1% and 23.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has increased by 5.75% and 19.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The 5 year grown is low because exactly 5 years ago was a year of very good growth for the company. If you look at 5 year running averages, the 5 year growth is much better. For example, using 5 year running averages the Cash Flow per Share is at 19.4% and 25.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Ever since the company started to earn profits in 2001, the Return on Equity has been over 10% each year. The ROE for the financial year ending on March 31, 2014 is 43.7%. The 5 year median is 48%. The comprehensive income is the same as the net income.
All the debt ratios are very good. The Liquidity Ratio is 2.73. The Debt Ratios is 2.70. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.59 and 0.59.
I have done very well in this stock. It has just recently done another 2 for 1 stock split. This is a tech stock, so I sold half my shares in 2011 to lock in my profit. Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Company is a dividend growth tech stock. See my spreadsheet at hse.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, July 16, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. is a computer software technology and consulting company serving the oil and gas industry. CMG is the leading supplier of advanced processes reservoir modelling software in the world with a blue chip client base of international oil companies and technology centers in approximately 50 countries. Its web site is here Computer Modelling Group.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, July 14, 2014
TMX Group Ltd.
On my other blog I am today writing about Kiva continue...
I do not own this stock of TMX Group Ltd. (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF). I looked at this stock in 2008 after I found it on a list of Strongest Dividend Growth stocks. I am interested in such stocks.
It may have been true that this company had strong dividend growth in 2008 as the median dividend growth to 2008 was at 50% per year. However, in 2008 the dividend did not grow at all. There was minor dividend growth in 2010 with a dividend increase of 5.3%. However, for all other years the dividend was flat. The 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is at 1 % and 16.4% per year. It makes you question for value of looking at stocks on such list!
The problem seems to be with earnings and earnings have fluctuated for this company. For example, the last 5 years of EPS are $1.41, $2.64, $3.17, $0.73 and $2.29. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS has a 5 year median value of 101%. For 2013, the DPR for EPS was 70%. However, it was 219% in 2012. It is expected to be around 46% in 2014. However, analysts are not suggesting any dividend increase over the next couple of years.
That said, investors have not done badly over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 and 10 year total returns are at 15.30% and 11.72% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 3.93% and 3.95% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 11.37% and 7.78% per year.
Outstanding Shares have decreased by 6% and 2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues and they have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenues have grown well over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings have grown nicely over the past 10 years, but not over the past 5 years. Cash Flow is the same as earnings.
Revenues are up by 5.6% and 11.60% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Net Income is down by 7.6% and up by 4.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow is flat over the past 5 years and up by 10.3% per year over the past 10 years. Revenues, earnings and cash flows are more important than the corresponding per share values because of the decreasing number of outstanding shares.
The Return on Equity was under 10% on 2 of the last 5 years with the ROE for 2013 at 0.7%. The ROE on comprehensive income is better, but not great at 4.9% for 2013.
The debt ratios are not great. The Liquidity Ratio and Debt Ratios are too low and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.02. Even with cash flow less dividends, this ratio only goes to 1.04. The Debt Ratio is just 1.22. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 5.55 and 4.55.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 18.45, 21.74 and 24.79. The current P/E Ratio is 16.41 based on a stock price of $56.77 and 2014 EPS of $3.46. The current P/B Ratio of 1.05 is some 68% lower than 10 year median P/B Ratio. The Price/Graham Price Ratio is 0.88. All these point to a rather cheap current stock price.
However, if you use the dividend yield as your metric, the stock price is relatively expensive. The current dividend yield is some 26% lower than the 5 year median of 3.81%. The current dividend yield is 27% lower than the historical average of 3.87%. I must admit that the current dividend yield is just 12% lower than the historical median dividend yield of 3.21%.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations I find Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $59.50. This implies total return of 7.63% with 4.81% from capital gains and 2.82% from dividends.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is no longer a dividend growth stock. They have just gone through reorganization. There might be regulatory development in Canada and we do not know how this will play out. I must admit I am not interested in this stock because it is not a dividend growth stock. See my spreadsheet at x.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
TMX Group Ltd. operates two national stock exchanges, Toronto Stock Exchange serving the senior equity market and TSX Venture Exchange serving the public venture equity market, Natural Gas Exchange (NGX), a North American exchange for the trading and clearing of natural gas and electricity contracts and Shorcan Brokers Limited, a fixed income inter-dealer broker. Its web site is here TMX Group.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of TMX Group Ltd. (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF). I looked at this stock in 2008 after I found it on a list of Strongest Dividend Growth stocks. I am interested in such stocks.
It may have been true that this company had strong dividend growth in 2008 as the median dividend growth to 2008 was at 50% per year. However, in 2008 the dividend did not grow at all. There was minor dividend growth in 2010 with a dividend increase of 5.3%. However, for all other years the dividend was flat. The 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is at 1 % and 16.4% per year. It makes you question for value of looking at stocks on such list!
The problem seems to be with earnings and earnings have fluctuated for this company. For example, the last 5 years of EPS are $1.41, $2.64, $3.17, $0.73 and $2.29. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS has a 5 year median value of 101%. For 2013, the DPR for EPS was 70%. However, it was 219% in 2012. It is expected to be around 46% in 2014. However, analysts are not suggesting any dividend increase over the next couple of years.
That said, investors have not done badly over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 and 10 year total returns are at 15.30% and 11.72% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 3.93% and 3.95% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 11.37% and 7.78% per year.
Outstanding Shares have decreased by 6% and 2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues and they have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenues have grown well over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings have grown nicely over the past 10 years, but not over the past 5 years. Cash Flow is the same as earnings.
Revenues are up by 5.6% and 11.60% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Net Income is down by 7.6% and up by 4.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow is flat over the past 5 years and up by 10.3% per year over the past 10 years. Revenues, earnings and cash flows are more important than the corresponding per share values because of the decreasing number of outstanding shares.
The Return on Equity was under 10% on 2 of the last 5 years with the ROE for 2013 at 0.7%. The ROE on comprehensive income is better, but not great at 4.9% for 2013.
The debt ratios are not great. The Liquidity Ratio and Debt Ratios are too low and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.02. Even with cash flow less dividends, this ratio only goes to 1.04. The Debt Ratio is just 1.22. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 5.55 and 4.55.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 18.45, 21.74 and 24.79. The current P/E Ratio is 16.41 based on a stock price of $56.77 and 2014 EPS of $3.46. The current P/B Ratio of 1.05 is some 68% lower than 10 year median P/B Ratio. The Price/Graham Price Ratio is 0.88. All these point to a rather cheap current stock price.
However, if you use the dividend yield as your metric, the stock price is relatively expensive. The current dividend yield is some 26% lower than the 5 year median of 3.81%. The current dividend yield is 27% lower than the historical average of 3.87%. I must admit that the current dividend yield is just 12% lower than the historical median dividend yield of 3.21%.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations I find Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $59.50. This implies total return of 7.63% with 4.81% from capital gains and 2.82% from dividends.
Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is no longer a dividend growth stock. They have just gone through reorganization. There might be regulatory development in Canada and we do not know how this will play out. I must admit I am not interested in this stock because it is not a dividend growth stock. See my spreadsheet at x.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
TMX Group Ltd. operates two national stock exchanges, Toronto Stock Exchange serving the senior equity market and TSX Venture Exchange serving the public venture equity market, Natural Gas Exchange (NGX), a North American exchange for the trading and clearing of natural gas and electricity contracts and Shorcan Brokers Limited, a fixed income inter-dealer broker. Its web site is here TMX Group.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, July 11, 2014
Saputo Inc. 2
I own this stock of Saputo Inc. (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list and on the dividend lists that I followed. When I sold RIM in 2006 I bought some Saputo. I had been following this stock and thought it was a strong Canadian Dividend paying stock.
When I look at the insider trading report, I find $12.1M of insider selling and $.8M of insider buying with net insider selling at $11.3M. This is just 0.11% of market cap. Insiders have stock options and also other option like vehicles called Performance Share Units and Deferred Share Units. There are some insiders with lots of options.
Last year the outstanding shares were increased by 1.7M shares with a book value of $41.9M. This number of shares would be worth some $94.8M at the end of 2014. There is also lots of insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $3.8M, a director having shares worth around $13.3M and the chairman having shares worth around $3.7B.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios were 16.8, 19.11 and 21.12. These are a bit higher than the corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 20.03 based on a stock price of $65.11 and 2014 EPS estimates of $3.25. This stock price test says that the stock price is within the relatively reasonable range, but it is close to the high end of this range.
I get a Graham Price of $32.26. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.26, 1.58 and 1.83. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.02 based on a stock price of $65.11. This stock test says that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 3.00. The current P/B Ratio is 4.57 a value some 53% higher. This P/B Ratio is based on a BVPS of $14.23 and a stock price of $65.11. This stock test says that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 year dividend yield is 1.76% and the current dividend yield is 1.41% a value some 19.5% lower. This historical median dividend yield is 1.74% a value some 19% higher than the current dividend yield. Both theses stock test says that the stock price is relatively expensive. The historical average dividend yield is lower at 1.51% and this is only 6% higher than the current dividend yield of 1.41%. This last test says that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
There is an interesting article on the CTV site which talks about Saputo refusing to buy milk from a B. C. farm after a video of workers abusing the cows was released. Good for them. This is the proper way to do business. Desjardins downgrades Saputo from a buy to a hold according to the InterCooler site. A Wall Street Journal article talks about Saputo launching seven new specialty cheese items this June.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendations would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $62.20. This is a value below the current stock price so the total return would be a 3.06% loss with dividends at 1.41% and a capital loss of 4.47%.
This is a good company and I have done well with it and although the dividend yield is low, it does healthy dividend increases. However, I think that now would not be a good time to buy as it is rather expensive at present. See my spreadsheet at sap.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, July 10, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Saputo produces, markets, and distributes a wide array of products of the utmost quality, including cheese, fluid milk, yogurt, dairy ingredients and snack-cakes. Saputo is the twelfth largest dairy processor in the world; the largest in Canada; the third largest in Argentina and among the top three cheese producers in the United States. Our products are sold in more than 50 countries under well-known brand names. Its web site is here Saputo.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at the insider trading report, I find $12.1M of insider selling and $.8M of insider buying with net insider selling at $11.3M. This is just 0.11% of market cap. Insiders have stock options and also other option like vehicles called Performance Share Units and Deferred Share Units. There are some insiders with lots of options.
Last year the outstanding shares were increased by 1.7M shares with a book value of $41.9M. This number of shares would be worth some $94.8M at the end of 2014. There is also lots of insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $3.8M, a director having shares worth around $13.3M and the chairman having shares worth around $3.7B.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios were 16.8, 19.11 and 21.12. These are a bit higher than the corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 20.03 based on a stock price of $65.11 and 2014 EPS estimates of $3.25. This stock price test says that the stock price is within the relatively reasonable range, but it is close to the high end of this range.
I get a Graham Price of $32.26. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.26, 1.58 and 1.83. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.02 based on a stock price of $65.11. This stock test says that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 3.00. The current P/B Ratio is 4.57 a value some 53% higher. This P/B Ratio is based on a BVPS of $14.23 and a stock price of $65.11. This stock test says that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 year dividend yield is 1.76% and the current dividend yield is 1.41% a value some 19.5% lower. This historical median dividend yield is 1.74% a value some 19% higher than the current dividend yield. Both theses stock test says that the stock price is relatively expensive. The historical average dividend yield is lower at 1.51% and this is only 6% higher than the current dividend yield of 1.41%. This last test says that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
There is an interesting article on the CTV site which talks about Saputo refusing to buy milk from a B. C. farm after a video of workers abusing the cows was released. Good for them. This is the proper way to do business. Desjardins downgrades Saputo from a buy to a hold according to the InterCooler site. A Wall Street Journal article talks about Saputo launching seven new specialty cheese items this June.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendations would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $62.20. This is a value below the current stock price so the total return would be a 3.06% loss with dividends at 1.41% and a capital loss of 4.47%.
This is a good company and I have done well with it and although the dividend yield is low, it does healthy dividend increases. However, I think that now would not be a good time to buy as it is rather expensive at present. See my spreadsheet at sap.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, July 10, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Saputo produces, markets, and distributes a wide array of products of the utmost quality, including cheese, fluid milk, yogurt, dairy ingredients and snack-cakes. Saputo is the twelfth largest dairy processor in the world; the largest in Canada; the third largest in Argentina and among the top three cheese producers in the United States. Our products are sold in more than 50 countries under well-known brand names. Its web site is here Saputo.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, July 10, 2014
Saputo Inc.
I own this stock of Saputo Inc. (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list and on the dividend lists that I followed. When I sold RIM in 2006 I bought some Saputo. I had been following this stock and thought it was a strong Canadian Dividend paying stock.
In 2012, I sold some that I had in my RRSP account because I need more dividend income and dividend yield is low on this stock. In 2013, I need to raise more money in the RRSP account because of yearly withdrawals. I sold the stock with the lowest dividend yield. I still want to hold this stock, but it would be a better stock in a Trading account rather than in my RRSP accounts because of the low dividends. In 2013 and 2014 I bought some of this stock for my TFSA.
The dividend yield is rather low with a 5 year median of 1.76% and a current dividend yield of 1.42%. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 10.8% and 24.2% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2014 and it was for 9.5%. On my 2006 investment, I am making a dividend yield of almost 5%.
It is young fast growing companies that can provide dividend increases in the 20% range. 10 years ago this company was worth around 3B and today it is worth some 13B. The last big dividend increase on this stock was in 2010. The last recession has been hard on a lot of companies. It is a balance sheet recession (i.e. debt problem) and these sorts of recessions tend to have long slow recoveries. So, in other words, I am not surprised by the slowdown in dividend growth.
I have made a return of $18.08% per year on this stock. Of this total return, 16.05% per year is attributable to capital gains and 2.03% per year to dividends. The 5 and 10 year total returns on this stock are at 18.10% and 15.51% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 16.19% and 13.63% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 1.87% and 1.91% per year.
The outstanding shares have decreased by 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. There has been great growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow over the past 5 and 10 years.
Revenue has grown at 9.8% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 11% and 10.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has grown at 15% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has grown at 16% and 11% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity has been above 10%. The ROE for the 2014 financial year ending in March 2014 is at 18.8%. The 5 year median ROE is 18.9%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income for 2014 is higher at 26.1% and has a 5 year median ROE at 18.6%.
The Debt Ratios are fine. It would be nice if the Liquidity Ratio was a bit higher and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios a bit lower. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is at 1.10. If you add in cash flow after dividends it becomes 1.38. A comfortable ratio would be at 1.50. The Debt Ratio at 1.81 is quite good.
Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are at 2.24 and 1.24. The 5 year median for these ratios is much better at 1.70 and 0.70.
This has been a very profitable dividend growth stock investment for me. It is interesting that a company that makes and markets cheese can be so profitable. See my spreadsheet at sap.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, July 11, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Saputo produces, markets, and distributes a wide array of products of the utmost quality, including cheese, fluid milk, yogurt, dairy ingredients and snack-cakes. Saputo is the twelfth largest dairy processor in the world; the largest in Canada; the third largest in Argentina and among the top three cheese producers in the United States. Our products are sold in more than 50 countries under well-known brand names. Its web site is here Saputo.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
In 2012, I sold some that I had in my RRSP account because I need more dividend income and dividend yield is low on this stock. In 2013, I need to raise more money in the RRSP account because of yearly withdrawals. I sold the stock with the lowest dividend yield. I still want to hold this stock, but it would be a better stock in a Trading account rather than in my RRSP accounts because of the low dividends. In 2013 and 2014 I bought some of this stock for my TFSA.
The dividend yield is rather low with a 5 year median of 1.76% and a current dividend yield of 1.42%. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 10.8% and 24.2% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2014 and it was for 9.5%. On my 2006 investment, I am making a dividend yield of almost 5%.
It is young fast growing companies that can provide dividend increases in the 20% range. 10 years ago this company was worth around 3B and today it is worth some 13B. The last big dividend increase on this stock was in 2010. The last recession has been hard on a lot of companies. It is a balance sheet recession (i.e. debt problem) and these sorts of recessions tend to have long slow recoveries. So, in other words, I am not surprised by the slowdown in dividend growth.
I have made a return of $18.08% per year on this stock. Of this total return, 16.05% per year is attributable to capital gains and 2.03% per year to dividends. The 5 and 10 year total returns on this stock are at 18.10% and 15.51% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 16.19% and 13.63% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 1.87% and 1.91% per year.
The outstanding shares have decreased by 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. There has been great growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow over the past 5 and 10 years.
Revenue has grown at 9.8% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 11% and 10.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has grown at 15% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has grown at 16% and 11% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity has been above 10%. The ROE for the 2014 financial year ending in March 2014 is at 18.8%. The 5 year median ROE is 18.9%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income for 2014 is higher at 26.1% and has a 5 year median ROE at 18.6%.
The Debt Ratios are fine. It would be nice if the Liquidity Ratio was a bit higher and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios a bit lower. The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is at 1.10. If you add in cash flow after dividends it becomes 1.38. A comfortable ratio would be at 1.50. The Debt Ratio at 1.81 is quite good.
Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are at 2.24 and 1.24. The 5 year median for these ratios is much better at 1.70 and 0.70.
This has been a very profitable dividend growth stock investment for me. It is interesting that a company that makes and markets cheese can be so profitable. See my spreadsheet at sap.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, July 11, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Saputo produces, markets, and distributes a wide array of products of the utmost quality, including cheese, fluid milk, yogurt, dairy ingredients and snack-cakes. Saputo is the twelfth largest dairy processor in the world; the largest in Canada; the third largest in Argentina and among the top three cheese producers in the United States. Our products are sold in more than 50 countries under well-known brand names. Its web site is here Saputo.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Penn West Petroleum Ltd.
On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks to buy continue...
I do not own this stock of Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (TSX-PWT, NYSE-PWE), but I used to. I bought this stock as Maximum Energy Trust (MXT.UN) in 1998. I sold this stock of Penn West in 2010 as it was changing to a corporation, but they are also getting back into exploration, rather than just selling oil from their wells. They also just reduced their dividends from $.15 per share per month to $.09 per share per month.
Dividends are not doing well. The Dividends on this stock have decreased by 25% per year over the past 5 years. Dividends have decreased every year since 2008, including in 2013. They so far have not decreased in 2014. However, if you are into dividend income like I am, you would like stocks that increase their dividends, not decrease them.
If you look at Dividend Payout Ratios using EPS you can see that they cannot afford to pay dividends. The company had an earnings loss in 2013 and one is also expected in 20014. Analysts do not expect that earnings in 2015 or 2016 will even come close to covering dividends. The DPR on CFPS is not as bad with the DPR for CFPS in 2014 at 47%.
The company uses Funds Flows to show dividends are affordable. However, the company is no longer an income trust and it will not be one again. They are a corporation and need to get to a place where the earnings can cover the dividends.
The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is a loss over the past 5 years at 4.78% per year and a gain over the past 10 years of 4.13% per year. The capital losses over the past 5 and 10 years are at 11.68% and 9.15% per year. The dividend portion of the total return is at 6.90% and 13.28% per year. Dividends are also now a lower at 5.62%.
The outstanding shares have increased by 4.8% and 27% per year over the past 10 years. Revenue is up but Revenue per Share is down over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings are down over these periods. Cash Flow is up but Cash Flow per Share is down.
If you use the 5 year running averages, Revenue is up by 114% and 33% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. By the same measure, Revenue per Share is down by 3.5% and 1.3% per year. EPS using the 5 year running averages is down by 58% and 36% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The cash flow using the 5 year running average is up by 2.4% and 28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share by this measure is down by 14% and 5% per year over the same periods.
Some of the debt ratios are fine. The Liquidity Ratio is 0.57. When this value is less than 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is better at 1.28, but this is still a low value. The Debt Ratio is quite good at 2.56 as is the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 1.64 and 0.64.
I get a Graham Price of $8.93. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.76, 0.97 and 1.17. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.12 and this stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. The current P/GP Ratio is based on a stock price of $9.97.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.15. The current P/B Ratio is 0.65 a value some 44% lower. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. The current P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $9.97 and BVPS of $15.41. On an absolute basis, a P/B Ratio less than 1.00 says the stock price is cheap.
The 10 year Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio is 5.83 and the current P/CF Ratio is 18% lower at 4.77. The P/CF Ratio is based on a stock price of $9.77 and CFPS of $2.09. This stock test suggests that the stock price is getting relatively cheap.
The 10 year Price/Sales Ratio is 2.84 and the current P/S Ratio is 2.06 a value some 27% lower. The P/S Ratio is based on current Revenue per Share of $4.84 and a stock price of $9.97. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Reduce recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $10.70. This implies total return from a stock price of $9.97 of 12.94% with 7.32% from capital gains and 5.62% from dividends. I do not think that the dividends are secure and I would think that this would be a very risky buy with not a great return in capital gains. That is, I do not think that the risk/reward balance is there.
The stock price would appear to rather cheap. However, I would not buy this company. Revenue, Earnings and Cash flows are all declining. See my spreadsheet at pwt.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
It is the largest conventional oil and natural gas producing trust in North America. They operate only in Alberta. Its web site is here Penn West.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (TSX-PWT, NYSE-PWE), but I used to. I bought this stock as Maximum Energy Trust (MXT.UN) in 1998. I sold this stock of Penn West in 2010 as it was changing to a corporation, but they are also getting back into exploration, rather than just selling oil from their wells. They also just reduced their dividends from $.15 per share per month to $.09 per share per month.
Dividends are not doing well. The Dividends on this stock have decreased by 25% per year over the past 5 years. Dividends have decreased every year since 2008, including in 2013. They so far have not decreased in 2014. However, if you are into dividend income like I am, you would like stocks that increase their dividends, not decrease them.
If you look at Dividend Payout Ratios using EPS you can see that they cannot afford to pay dividends. The company had an earnings loss in 2013 and one is also expected in 20014. Analysts do not expect that earnings in 2015 or 2016 will even come close to covering dividends. The DPR on CFPS is not as bad with the DPR for CFPS in 2014 at 47%.
The company uses Funds Flows to show dividends are affordable. However, the company is no longer an income trust and it will not be one again. They are a corporation and need to get to a place where the earnings can cover the dividends.
The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is a loss over the past 5 years at 4.78% per year and a gain over the past 10 years of 4.13% per year. The capital losses over the past 5 and 10 years are at 11.68% and 9.15% per year. The dividend portion of the total return is at 6.90% and 13.28% per year. Dividends are also now a lower at 5.62%.
The outstanding shares have increased by 4.8% and 27% per year over the past 10 years. Revenue is up but Revenue per Share is down over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings are down over these periods. Cash Flow is up but Cash Flow per Share is down.
If you use the 5 year running averages, Revenue is up by 114% and 33% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. By the same measure, Revenue per Share is down by 3.5% and 1.3% per year. EPS using the 5 year running averages is down by 58% and 36% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The cash flow using the 5 year running average is up by 2.4% and 28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share by this measure is down by 14% and 5% per year over the same periods.
Some of the debt ratios are fine. The Liquidity Ratio is 0.57. When this value is less than 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is better at 1.28, but this is still a low value. The Debt Ratio is quite good at 2.56 as is the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 1.64 and 0.64.
I get a Graham Price of $8.93. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.76, 0.97 and 1.17. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.12 and this stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. The current P/GP Ratio is based on a stock price of $9.97.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.15. The current P/B Ratio is 0.65 a value some 44% lower. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. The current P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $9.97 and BVPS of $15.41. On an absolute basis, a P/B Ratio less than 1.00 says the stock price is cheap.
The 10 year Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio is 5.83 and the current P/CF Ratio is 18% lower at 4.77. The P/CF Ratio is based on a stock price of $9.77 and CFPS of $2.09. This stock test suggests that the stock price is getting relatively cheap.
The 10 year Price/Sales Ratio is 2.84 and the current P/S Ratio is 2.06 a value some 27% lower. The P/S Ratio is based on current Revenue per Share of $4.84 and a stock price of $9.97. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Reduce recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $10.70. This implies total return from a stock price of $9.97 of 12.94% with 7.32% from capital gains and 5.62% from dividends. I do not think that the dividends are secure and I would think that this would be a very risky buy with not a great return in capital gains. That is, I do not think that the risk/reward balance is there.
The stock price would appear to rather cheap. However, I would not buy this company. Revenue, Earnings and Cash flows are all declining. See my spreadsheet at pwt.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
It is the largest conventional oil and natural gas producing trust in North America. They operate only in Alberta. Its web site is here Penn West.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, July 8, 2014
Morneau Shepell Inc.
I do not own this stock of Morneau Shepell Inc. (TSX-MSI, OTC- MSIXF). Every once in a while I go through the stocks that my brokerage, TD Waterhouse, is recommending to find promising new stocks. In February 2013 this stock was rated a buy by TD Waterhouse. It was under Diversified Financials.
This company used to be an income trust, but it changed to a corporation and cut its dividend by 17% in 2011. The dividends have remained flat since then. When this stock was first issued as an income trust in 2005, there was some dividend increases.
The problem with this stock is that the Dividend Payout Ratios are too high. For 2013 the DPR for EPS was at 371% for the CFPS it was at 60%. It is expected that the DPR for EPS will be around 96% in 2014 and the DPR for CFPS will be around 74%. If it can grow its dividend in the future, it might be an interesting stock for a dividend portfolio.
Shares have done quite well since that stock was issued in 2005. The 5 and 10 year total return is at 18.69% and 11.62% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 11.76% and 5.52% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 6.93% and 6.10% per year. Dividend return will be lower in the future. The current dividend yield is now at 4.56%.
Outstanding share have increased by 3% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. The shares have increased due to share issues and stock options. There has been good growth in Revenue, and moderate growth in Earnings and Cash Flow.
Revenue per Share has grown at 10% and 10.1% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. EPS has grown at 3% per year if you look at 5 year running averages over the past 4 years. EPS has grown at 10% per year over the past 8 years. Cash Flow per Share has grown at 3% and 23% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. Growth in CFPS is more over the past 4 years if you look at 5 year running average which shows growth at 6.5% per year.
One problem is Return on Equity which for 2013 was just 3.2%. The 5 year median ROE is also low at 5%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is similar with corresponding rates at 3.7% and 5.7%.
Generally debt ratios are good but the Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high. Liquidity Ratios for 2013 were at 1.83. The Debt Ratio for 2013 was at 1.87. These are both quite good. The Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios are at 2.15 and 1.15 for 2013.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 24.70, 27.52 and 30.35. The 8 year P/E Ratios are similar. I think that these are quite high for this sort of company. The current P/E Ratio is 21.14 based on a stock price of $17.12 and 2014 EPS estimate of $0.81. However, this stock price test shows that the stock price is relatively cheap. On an absolute basis, a P/E of 21.14 is a reasonable one.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.50. The current P/B Ratio is 2.52 based on a stock price of $17.12 and Book Value per Share of $6.79. The current P/B Ratio is some 68% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio and this stock price test suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $11.12 and the 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.20, 1.41 and 1.57. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.54. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. However I think that the P/GP Ratios are rather high.
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $17.30. This implies a total return of 5.61% with 4.56% from dividends and 1.05% from capital gains.
For me to be interested in this stock I would like to see growth in dividends and a better ROE. See my spreadsheet at msi.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Morneau Shepell Inc. provides human resource consulting and outsourcing services. The firm delivers solutions to assist employers in managing the financial security, health and productivity of their employees. The company has business in Canada and US. Its web site is here Morneau Shepell.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This company used to be an income trust, but it changed to a corporation and cut its dividend by 17% in 2011. The dividends have remained flat since then. When this stock was first issued as an income trust in 2005, there was some dividend increases.
The problem with this stock is that the Dividend Payout Ratios are too high. For 2013 the DPR for EPS was at 371% for the CFPS it was at 60%. It is expected that the DPR for EPS will be around 96% in 2014 and the DPR for CFPS will be around 74%. If it can grow its dividend in the future, it might be an interesting stock for a dividend portfolio.
Shares have done quite well since that stock was issued in 2005. The 5 and 10 year total return is at 18.69% and 11.62% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 11.76% and 5.52% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 6.93% and 6.10% per year. Dividend return will be lower in the future. The current dividend yield is now at 4.56%.
Outstanding share have increased by 3% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. The shares have increased due to share issues and stock options. There has been good growth in Revenue, and moderate growth in Earnings and Cash Flow.
Revenue per Share has grown at 10% and 10.1% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. EPS has grown at 3% per year if you look at 5 year running averages over the past 4 years. EPS has grown at 10% per year over the past 8 years. Cash Flow per Share has grown at 3% and 23% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. Growth in CFPS is more over the past 4 years if you look at 5 year running average which shows growth at 6.5% per year.
One problem is Return on Equity which for 2013 was just 3.2%. The 5 year median ROE is also low at 5%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is similar with corresponding rates at 3.7% and 5.7%.
Generally debt ratios are good but the Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high. Liquidity Ratios for 2013 were at 1.83. The Debt Ratio for 2013 was at 1.87. These are both quite good. The Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios are at 2.15 and 1.15 for 2013.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 24.70, 27.52 and 30.35. The 8 year P/E Ratios are similar. I think that these are quite high for this sort of company. The current P/E Ratio is 21.14 based on a stock price of $17.12 and 2014 EPS estimate of $0.81. However, this stock price test shows that the stock price is relatively cheap. On an absolute basis, a P/E of 21.14 is a reasonable one.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.50. The current P/B Ratio is 2.52 based on a stock price of $17.12 and Book Value per Share of $6.79. The current P/B Ratio is some 68% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio and this stock price test suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $11.12 and the 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.20, 1.41 and 1.57. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.54. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. However I think that the P/GP Ratios are rather high.
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $17.30. This implies a total return of 5.61% with 4.56% from dividends and 1.05% from capital gains.
For me to be interested in this stock I would like to see growth in dividends and a better ROE. See my spreadsheet at msi.htm.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Morneau Shepell Inc. provides human resource consulting and outsourcing services. The firm delivers solutions to assist employers in managing the financial security, health and productivity of their employees. The company has business in Canada and US. Its web site is here Morneau Shepell.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, July 7, 2014
Suncor Energy Inc. 2
On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks for July 2014 continue...
I do not own this stock of Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). I started following this stock as Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). It was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. This was also a key stock for the Investment Reporter. My spreadsheet follows PCA into SU.
When I look at insider trading, I find some $17.1M of insider selling and $.1M of insider buying with $17M of net insider selling. Insider selling is only .03% of the company's market cap. The increase in outstanding shares in 2013 due to stock options is 4.75M. These shares have a book value of $127M or 0.32% of outstanding shares. This number of shares was worth $176.9M at the end of 2013.
There are a lot of stock options outstanding and most of those have strike dates. However, there is a lot of other stock option like vehicles of Deferred Share Units, Performance Share Units, Options SunShare, Options SunShare 2012, Sunshare 2012 Restricted Share Units, Performance Units, Restricted Share Unit, Options - PC Options/SARS, Options - Suncor Energy Option Plan (Post A), PC Deferred Share Units, PC Restricted Share Units, and PC Performance Share Units (Officers). (I think I got them all.)
As far as I can see, the only person with significant shares in this company is the CEO and he has shares worth some $14.4M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.58, 13.89 and 17.37. These are significantly lower than the corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios which are 15.54, 19.86 and 24.91. The current P/E Ratio is 12.10 based on a stock price of $45.61 and 2014 EPS estimate of $3.77. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. Against the 10 year P/E Ratios, the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $49.39. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.83, 1.17 and 1.48. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.92 based on a stock price of $45.61. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. On an absolute basis, a P/GP Ratio of 1.00 or less says the stock price is cheap.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.40. The current P/B Ratio is 1.59 based on a BVPS of $28.75 and a stock price of $45.61. The current P/B Ratio is some 14% higher than the 10 year ratio and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but towards the upper part of the reasonable range.
The current dividend yield is 2.02% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 1.27%, a value some 58% lower. If you look at the historical average, the dividend yield is 1.01 and the historical median dividend yield is 0.50%. The historical high dividend yield is 1.72%. By all these measures the current stock price is relatively cheap.
There is a number of article about Suncor appointing Alister Cowan from Husky as it new chief financial officer. The one refer to is from the Financial Post. Another Financial Post article talks about Suncor recycling Toxic Oil-Sands run off.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $48.00. This implies a total return of 7.26% with 5.24% from capital gains and 2.02% from dividends. This is not a resounding back up for a Buy recommendation.
It is interesting that using the stock price tests I generally use, the stock price is showing quite cheap in all but the P/B Ratio test. If you do a P/CF test or a P/S Test, the price does not look cheap and in fact for the P/S Ratio test the stock price is showing as relatively expensive. See my spreadsheet at su.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, July 4, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Suncor Energy Inc. is an integrated energy company. Suncor's operations include oil sands development and upgrading, conventional and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Suncor is also developing a growing renewable energy portfolio. Their international and offshore business includes operations in the North Sea (United Kingdom, Netherlands and Norway) and the East Coast of Canada. They are also in Libya, Syria and Trinidad and Tobago. Its web site is here Suncor.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). I started following this stock as Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). It was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. This was also a key stock for the Investment Reporter. My spreadsheet follows PCA into SU.
When I look at insider trading, I find some $17.1M of insider selling and $.1M of insider buying with $17M of net insider selling. Insider selling is only .03% of the company's market cap. The increase in outstanding shares in 2013 due to stock options is 4.75M. These shares have a book value of $127M or 0.32% of outstanding shares. This number of shares was worth $176.9M at the end of 2013.
There are a lot of stock options outstanding and most of those have strike dates. However, there is a lot of other stock option like vehicles of Deferred Share Units, Performance Share Units, Options SunShare, Options SunShare 2012, Sunshare 2012 Restricted Share Units, Performance Units, Restricted Share Unit, Options - PC Options/SARS, Options - Suncor Energy Option Plan (Post A), PC Deferred Share Units, PC Restricted Share Units, and PC Performance Share Units (Officers). (I think I got them all.)
As far as I can see, the only person with significant shares in this company is the CEO and he has shares worth some $14.4M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.58, 13.89 and 17.37. These are significantly lower than the corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios which are 15.54, 19.86 and 24.91. The current P/E Ratio is 12.10 based on a stock price of $45.61 and 2014 EPS estimate of $3.77. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. Against the 10 year P/E Ratios, the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $49.39. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.83, 1.17 and 1.48. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.92 based on a stock price of $45.61. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. On an absolute basis, a P/GP Ratio of 1.00 or less says the stock price is cheap.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.40. The current P/B Ratio is 1.59 based on a BVPS of $28.75 and a stock price of $45.61. The current P/B Ratio is some 14% higher than the 10 year ratio and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but towards the upper part of the reasonable range.
The current dividend yield is 2.02% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 1.27%, a value some 58% lower. If you look at the historical average, the dividend yield is 1.01 and the historical median dividend yield is 0.50%. The historical high dividend yield is 1.72%. By all these measures the current stock price is relatively cheap.
There is a number of article about Suncor appointing Alister Cowan from Husky as it new chief financial officer. The one refer to is from the Financial Post. Another Financial Post article talks about Suncor recycling Toxic Oil-Sands run off.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $48.00. This implies a total return of 7.26% with 5.24% from capital gains and 2.02% from dividends. This is not a resounding back up for a Buy recommendation.
It is interesting that using the stock price tests I generally use, the stock price is showing quite cheap in all but the P/B Ratio test. If you do a P/CF test or a P/S Test, the price does not look cheap and in fact for the P/S Ratio test the stock price is showing as relatively expensive. See my spreadsheet at su.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, July 4, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Suncor Energy Inc. is an integrated energy company. Suncor's operations include oil sands development and upgrading, conventional and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Suncor is also developing a growing renewable energy portfolio. Their international and offshore business includes operations in the North Sea (United Kingdom, Netherlands and Norway) and the East Coast of Canada. They are also in Libya, Syria and Trinidad and Tobago. Its web site is here Suncor.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, July 4, 2014
Suncor Energy Inc.
I do not own this stock of Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). I started following this stock as Petro-Canada. It was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. This was also a key stock for the Investment Reporter. My spreadsheet follows PCA into SU.
This is an oil and gas company with a very low dividend, but very good increases. The 10 year median dividend yield is just 0.85%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.27% and the current dividend yield is 2.92%. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth rate is 29% and 28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase at the beginning of 2014 was for 15%.
The dividend yield on this stock has been higher lately because the stock price is down. You can also see this happening in the P/E Ratio. For example, the 10 year median Price/Earnings per Share Ratio is 19.86 but the 5 year median P/E Ratio is lower at 13.89.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good with 5 year medina DPR for EPS at 28% and for CFPS at 9%. The DPR for 2013 for EPS was at 28% and for CFPS was at 10%.
The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is acceptable, but it is not great. The total return over these periods is at 5.60% and 7.76% per year with the portion attributable to capital gains at 4.15% and 6.68% per year and the portion attributable to dividends at 1.44% and 1.08% per year.
This sort of stock is expected to provide total returns with a high rate of capital gains and low rate of dividends over the longer term. Since we are still in a cyclical bear market, I would not expect to receive high capital gains over the next 5 and 10 years.
The value of such stock is the high dividend increases. By having such stock you can have your dividend portfolio produce nice dividend growth year over year.
The outstanding shares have increase by 1% and 1.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options, DRIP and have decreased due to Buy Backs. With Revenue and Cash Flow, growth is fine for the last 10 years, but there is no growth over the past 5 years. For EPS there is good growth over the past 5 and 10 years.
Revenue per Share is down by 9.5% per year over the past 5 years and up by 4.3% per year over the past 10 years. Looking at Revenue and at 5 year running averages, they are similar, except the 5 year running averages produce slightly better results.
Earnings per Share are up by 5.3% and 10.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is down by 6.6% and up by 4.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity is below 10% in 4 years in the past 5 years and also in 4 years in the past 10 years. The ROE for 2013 is at 9.5% and the 5 year median ROE is also 9.5%. The ROE for comprehensive income for 2013 is better at 11.5%. However, the 5 year median value is a bit lower at 8.5%.
The debt ratios are fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is 1.39. If you add in cash flow after dividends, the value is 2.24. The Debt Ratio is 2.11 which is a very good value. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also quite good at 1.90 and 0.90.
This is the sort of stock you buy to increase your dividend growth rate for dividend portfolio. See my spreadsheet at su.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, July 7, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Suncor Energy Inc. is an integrated energy company. Suncor's operations include oil sands development and upgrading, conventional and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Suncor is also developing a growing renewable energy portfolio. Their international and offshore business includes operations in the North Sea (United Kingdom, Netherlands and Norway) and the East Coast of Canada. They are also in Libya, Syria and Trinidad and Tobago. Its web site is here Suncor.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This is an oil and gas company with a very low dividend, but very good increases. The 10 year median dividend yield is just 0.85%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.27% and the current dividend yield is 2.92%. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth rate is 29% and 28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase at the beginning of 2014 was for 15%.
The dividend yield on this stock has been higher lately because the stock price is down. You can also see this happening in the P/E Ratio. For example, the 10 year median Price/Earnings per Share Ratio is 19.86 but the 5 year median P/E Ratio is lower at 13.89.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good with 5 year medina DPR for EPS at 28% and for CFPS at 9%. The DPR for 2013 for EPS was at 28% and for CFPS was at 10%.
The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is acceptable, but it is not great. The total return over these periods is at 5.60% and 7.76% per year with the portion attributable to capital gains at 4.15% and 6.68% per year and the portion attributable to dividends at 1.44% and 1.08% per year.
This sort of stock is expected to provide total returns with a high rate of capital gains and low rate of dividends over the longer term. Since we are still in a cyclical bear market, I would not expect to receive high capital gains over the next 5 and 10 years.
The value of such stock is the high dividend increases. By having such stock you can have your dividend portfolio produce nice dividend growth year over year.
The outstanding shares have increase by 1% and 1.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options, DRIP and have decreased due to Buy Backs. With Revenue and Cash Flow, growth is fine for the last 10 years, but there is no growth over the past 5 years. For EPS there is good growth over the past 5 and 10 years.
Revenue per Share is down by 9.5% per year over the past 5 years and up by 4.3% per year over the past 10 years. Looking at Revenue and at 5 year running averages, they are similar, except the 5 year running averages produce slightly better results.
Earnings per Share are up by 5.3% and 10.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is down by 6.6% and up by 4.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity is below 10% in 4 years in the past 5 years and also in 4 years in the past 10 years. The ROE for 2013 is at 9.5% and the 5 year median ROE is also 9.5%. The ROE for comprehensive income for 2013 is better at 11.5%. However, the 5 year median value is a bit lower at 8.5%.
The debt ratios are fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is 1.39. If you add in cash flow after dividends, the value is 2.24. The Debt Ratio is 2.11 which is a very good value. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also quite good at 1.90 and 0.90.
This is the sort of stock you buy to increase your dividend growth rate for dividend portfolio. See my spreadsheet at su.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, July 7, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Suncor Energy Inc. is an integrated energy company. Suncor's operations include oil sands development and upgrading, conventional and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Suncor is also developing a growing renewable energy portfolio. Their international and offshore business includes operations in the North Sea (United Kingdom, Netherlands and Norway) and the East Coast of Canada. They are also in Libya, Syria and Trinidad and Tobago. Its web site is here Suncor.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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