I own this stock of Automodular Corp. (TSX-AM, OTC-AMZKF). I went looking for some dividend paying small cap to soak up extra money in the TFSA. This is one of the stocks that I found.
The insider trading report for the past year shows $0.4M of insider buying and $0.4M of insider selling. There is a bit of extra selling so there is a net of sales. There is some insider ownership with a director owning around 13% of the outstanding shares worth around $6.3M and the CEO owning 2% of the company worth around $1.0M. Also Franklin Templeton Investments Corp. owns around 4.5M shares worth around $11M and around 23% of the outstanding shares.
It is hard to do a price analysis based on Price/Earnings per Share Ratios. The P/E has been very low lately range from 1.33 to 4.69. The current one is probably around 4.33, a very low P/E also. This is based on a current stock price of $2.25 and the 12 month EPS of $0.50 ending at the first quarter of 2014.
I get a current Graham Price of $5.47. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.21, 0.41 and 0.61. These are very low numbers. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.41 based on a stock price $2.25. This stock price test would suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable. On an absolute basis, any P/GP Ratio at 1.00 and below says that the stock is at a very good price.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.90. The current P/B Ratio is 0.96 a value some 7% higher. The P/B Ratios are quite low. This stock price test would suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable. On an absolute basis, a P/B Ratio below 1.00 says that the stock is cheap.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 10.56% and the current dividend yield is about 1% higher at 10.67%. This stock price test would suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable. The dividend yield is quite high. On an absolute basis, a dividend yield of 10.56% says that the stock is cheap.
On an historical basis, the average dividend yield is 6.5% a value some 64% below today's dividend yield. The historical median dividend yield is 5.45% a value even lower and some 95% lower than today dividend yield. This stock price testing says that the stock is relatively cheap.
There is a wonderful analysis of this company at Wikinvest. There is another good article on this stock at Seeking Alpha by Alec Mazo. Elliot Luchansky on Guru Focus give this stock a Strong Buy rating and a 12 month stock price of $5.65.
I am very interested to see how this all plays out. I am keeping my shares because that will make what happens to the company all the more interesting to me. Both the Wikinvest and Seeking Alpha analysis see this stock producing a nice return for shareholders. We will see. See my spreadsheet at am.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, May 30, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Automodular Corporation is a sequencer and sub-assembler of components and modules that are installed in cars and trucks made by North American Original Equipment Manufacturers ("OEMs"), at plants in Canada. Its web site is here Automodular Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, May 30, 2014
Thursday, May 29, 2014
Automodular Corp.
I own this stock of Automodular Corp. (TSX-AM, OTC-AMZKF). I went looking for some dividend paying small cap to soak up extra money in the TFSA. This is one of the stocks that I found.
First, I have invested very little in this stock, only around $1,000. It is small and it might be broken up when the Ford contract ends. However, the management is looking around for things to invest in. Most of the money I have made on this stock has been in dividends.
I have made a total return of 21.49% per year with 18.42% from dividends and 3.07% from capital gains. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is 87.71% and 13.15% per year. Of the total return 33.53% and 4.14% per year is attributable to capital gains over the past 5 and 10 years. Of the total return 54.18% and 9.01% per year is attributable to dividends over the past 5 and 10 years.
As far as dividends go, the company has been inconsistent. They have paid dividends when they can and have paid special dividends when they can. However, I would not consider dividends from this stock dependable. And there is that other thing that it might go out of business soon.
The outstanding shares have decreased by 5.7% and increased by 3.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue has fluctuated, but they have done well in increasing EPS and CFPS over the past 5 years, but not so much over the past 10 years.
If you use 5 year running average revenue per share is up by 1.1% and down by 1.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 76% and 2.4% per year if you use 5 year running averages. CFPS is up by 8.2% and 1.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 year using 5 year running averages.
This company has had a number of years with earning losses. When they have had income, the Return on Equity has been good. The ROE for 2013 was 24%. The ROE on comprehensive income was close at 24.5%.
This small cap has great debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is 3.75 and the Debt Ratio is 4.07. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are 1.35 and 0.35.
I plan to hold on to my shares until the end. The other thing is that they have in cash around $2.05 per share. With a current share price at $2.25, the cash is equal to 91.2% of the share price. See my spreadsheet at am.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, May 29, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Automodular Corporation is a sequencer and sub-assembler of components and modules that are installed in cars and trucks made by North American Original Equipment Manufacturers ("OEMs"), at plants in Canada. Its web site is here Automodular Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
First, I have invested very little in this stock, only around $1,000. It is small and it might be broken up when the Ford contract ends. However, the management is looking around for things to invest in. Most of the money I have made on this stock has been in dividends.
I have made a total return of 21.49% per year with 18.42% from dividends and 3.07% from capital gains. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is 87.71% and 13.15% per year. Of the total return 33.53% and 4.14% per year is attributable to capital gains over the past 5 and 10 years. Of the total return 54.18% and 9.01% per year is attributable to dividends over the past 5 and 10 years.
As far as dividends go, the company has been inconsistent. They have paid dividends when they can and have paid special dividends when they can. However, I would not consider dividends from this stock dependable. And there is that other thing that it might go out of business soon.
The outstanding shares have decreased by 5.7% and increased by 3.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue has fluctuated, but they have done well in increasing EPS and CFPS over the past 5 years, but not so much over the past 10 years.
If you use 5 year running average revenue per share is up by 1.1% and down by 1.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 76% and 2.4% per year if you use 5 year running averages. CFPS is up by 8.2% and 1.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 year using 5 year running averages.
This company has had a number of years with earning losses. When they have had income, the Return on Equity has been good. The ROE for 2013 was 24%. The ROE on comprehensive income was close at 24.5%.
This small cap has great debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is 3.75 and the Debt Ratio is 4.07. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are 1.35 and 0.35.
I plan to hold on to my shares until the end. The other thing is that they have in cash around $2.05 per share. With a current share price at $2.25, the cash is equal to 91.2% of the share price. See my spreadsheet at am.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, May 29, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Automodular Corporation is a sequencer and sub-assembler of components and modules that are installed in cars and trucks made by North American Original Equipment Manufacturers ("OEMs"), at plants in Canada. Its web site is here Automodular Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, May 28, 2014
Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. 2
On my other blog I am today writing about testing a stock price using the 5 year median dividend yield continue...
I own this stock of Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. (TSX-BIN, NYSE-BIN). I first bought this stock in 2007 because TD Securities had a very favorable report on this stock and had it on it action buy lists. I had money because I had recently sold RIM. At that time it was an income fund. In 2010, I needed to buy something for Pension Acct. I have this already and it is on TD Action Buy List.
The outstanding shares were increased due to stock options and restricted shares by 77,000 shares. Restricted Shares are share based compensation. The Book Value of these shares is $348,000 and these shares were worth $2,022,790 at the end of 2013.
When I look at insider trading, I find $2.1M of insider selling and $1.5M of insider buying with net selling at $0.6M. Net selling is very low. There is some insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $4.6M, the CFO have shares worth around $0.7M and officer having shares worth around $1.5M and the Chairman having shares worth around $1.7M.
There is also two 10% holder with IESI Corporation owning $239M worth of shares or 9.7% of the outstanding shares and Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. owing shares worth $125M or 5.1% of the outstanding shares. (IESI Corporation is what this corporation is known as in the US.)
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.08, 22.58 and 26.08. These P/E Ratios are lower than the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 23.72 based on a stock price of $28.41 and 2014 EPS estimates of $1.20. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $11.15. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.29, 1.53 and 1.79. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.56 based on a stock price of $28.41. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share ratio of 1.92. The current P/B Ratio is 2.32 based on a stock price $28.41 and BVPS of $12.23. The current P/B Ratio is some 21% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.
The current dividend yield is 2.11% and the 5 year median dividend yield at 2.47% is some 14.4% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is still reasonable, but towards to high end of the reasonableness range. Because this stock was previously an income trust, historical dividend yields do not enlighten us on the reasonableness of the current stock price.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform Recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy recommendation. The 12 month consensus stock price target is $30.75. This implies a total return of 10.35% with 2.11% from dividends and 8.24% from capital gains.
Barry Schwartz, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager, Baskin Financial Services picks this stock as one has his top picks. He thinks it might be a takeover target. I hope not as I would rather continue to hold this stock rather than have it taken out of the market. According to market watch, RBC Capital raised their target price on this stock from $29 to $31.
The stock price is reasonable to expensive. I will continue to hold on to the shares I have but I have no plans at present to buy any more. See my spreadsheet at bin.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, May 27, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
They are a full-service waste management company providing non-hazardous solid waste collection and landfill disposal services for municipal, commercial, industrial and residential customers in five provinces and ten US states. Two-thirds of their business is in US. Its web site is here Progressive Waste.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. (TSX-BIN, NYSE-BIN). I first bought this stock in 2007 because TD Securities had a very favorable report on this stock and had it on it action buy lists. I had money because I had recently sold RIM. At that time it was an income fund. In 2010, I needed to buy something for Pension Acct. I have this already and it is on TD Action Buy List.
The outstanding shares were increased due to stock options and restricted shares by 77,000 shares. Restricted Shares are share based compensation. The Book Value of these shares is $348,000 and these shares were worth $2,022,790 at the end of 2013.
When I look at insider trading, I find $2.1M of insider selling and $1.5M of insider buying with net selling at $0.6M. Net selling is very low. There is some insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $4.6M, the CFO have shares worth around $0.7M and officer having shares worth around $1.5M and the Chairman having shares worth around $1.7M.
There is also two 10% holder with IESI Corporation owning $239M worth of shares or 9.7% of the outstanding shares and Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. owing shares worth $125M or 5.1% of the outstanding shares. (IESI Corporation is what this corporation is known as in the US.)
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.08, 22.58 and 26.08. These P/E Ratios are lower than the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 23.72 based on a stock price of $28.41 and 2014 EPS estimates of $1.20. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $11.15. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.29, 1.53 and 1.79. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.56 based on a stock price of $28.41. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share ratio of 1.92. The current P/B Ratio is 2.32 based on a stock price $28.41 and BVPS of $12.23. The current P/B Ratio is some 21% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.
The current dividend yield is 2.11% and the 5 year median dividend yield at 2.47% is some 14.4% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is still reasonable, but towards to high end of the reasonableness range. Because this stock was previously an income trust, historical dividend yields do not enlighten us on the reasonableness of the current stock price.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform Recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy recommendation. The 12 month consensus stock price target is $30.75. This implies a total return of 10.35% with 2.11% from dividends and 8.24% from capital gains.
Barry Schwartz, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager, Baskin Financial Services picks this stock as one has his top picks. He thinks it might be a takeover target. I hope not as I would rather continue to hold this stock rather than have it taken out of the market. According to market watch, RBC Capital raised their target price on this stock from $29 to $31.
The stock price is reasonable to expensive. I will continue to hold on to the shares I have but I have no plans at present to buy any more. See my spreadsheet at bin.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, May 27, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
They are a full-service waste management company providing non-hazardous solid waste collection and landfill disposal services for municipal, commercial, industrial and residential customers in five provinces and ten US states. Two-thirds of their business is in US. Its web site is here Progressive Waste.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd.
I own this stock of Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. (TSX-BIN, NYSE-BIN). I first bought this stock in 2007 because TD Securities had a very favorable report on this stock and had it on it action buy lists. I had money because I had recently sold RIM. At that time it was an income fund. In 2010, I needed to buy something for Pension Acct. I have this already and it is on TD Action Buy List. Of 13 analysts, 11 say strong buy and 2 hold.
When this company changed from an Income Trust to a corporation, it cut its dividend by 72%. This was in 2009. In 2011 it started to raise the dividends and they are up 20% between 2011 and 2013. The last dividend raise was in 2013 and it was an increase of 7.1%.
The thing is that the decrease in dividends brought the Dividend Payout Ratios into line with what they should be for a corporation. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 66% and for CFPS is 16%. For 2013 these ratios were 53% for EPS and 14% for CFPS.
As an Income Trust company the dividends yield were quite high. When this company changed to a corporation, the dividend yields became much lower. Currently the dividends are 2.11%. As a dividend growth stock, the dividends are moderate and the dividend increases are moderate. Since 2008 they also have not raised the dividends each year as there was no dividend increase in 2012.
I have earned a total return of 5.13% per year with 2.53% per year from capital gains and 2.60% per year from dividends. The 5 and 10 year total return is 13.66% and 5.87% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 2.68% and 4.38% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gain is at 10.97% and 1.49% per year.
The thing is that the stock price fell heavily in 2008 when it was known that the dividend was to be cut. The stock fell some 70%. Dividend investors do not like dividend cuts. However, I think that the company was wise to do this to get their Dividend Payout Ratios into line with what a corporation should have.
What complicates this stock is that in 2009 they started to report in US$ rather than CDN$. They also started to report in US GAAP rather than CDN GAAP. This is because they have business both in Canada and US. The dividends are still paid in CDN$.
The outstanding shares by increased by 14.8% and 15.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues. The shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue, Cash Flow and Earnings have grown well, Revenue per Share, CFPS and EPS have not done as well because of the increase in outstanding share. Basically, there is good growth in EPS, but not for Revenue per Share or CFPS.
2013 was a good year for this company, but 2011 was not. In 2011 they had good Revenue and Cash Flow, but that they had an EPS loss. However, the loss in 2011 was due to a non-cash impairment loss (that is they wrote off goodwill).
Revenue has grown over the past 5 and 10 years at 17% and 32% per year. Revenue per share has grown at 2.2% and 13.68% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Since I only have dated back to 2002, I only can look at 5 year running averages over the past 5 years and the Revenue per shares has grown at 3.3% per year. These figures are in US$.
Net Income has grown at the rate of 25% and 28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running average has only grown at 4.2% per year and this is because of the big net income loss in 2011. The EPS has grown at 9% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running average is down by 9%, but again this is because of the loss in 2011. I think that the growth over the past 5 and 10 years is more accurate measure of the growth of this company. These figures are in US$.
Cash flow has grown at the rate of 17% and 28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share's is much less at 1.5% and 10% per year. If you look at the 5 year running averages, the CFPS has grown at 2% per year. CFPS just has not grown much over the past 5 years.
The Return on Equity has always been quite low for this company. For 2013 it was the highest it has ever been at 9.1%. The 5 year median is just 5.3%. The ROE is expected to be around 9.6% for 2014. The comprehensive income was lower than that on net income for 2013 coming in at just 6.5%. However, its 5 year median value is higher at 7.4%. The low ROE is certainly a negative for this company.
The Liquidity Ratio was low in 2013 at 1.00. This ratio has always been low and the company generally depends on cash flow to pay help cover current liabilities and if you add in cash flow less dividends the ratio is a health 2.29.
The Debt Ratio for this company has always been quite good. The ratio for 2013 is 1.61 and the 5 year median is 1.88. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are rather standard for an industrial stock and for 2013 were are 2.63 and 1.63.
This is an industrial dividend growth stock. You would buy it to diversify and for the exposure to the US market. See my spreadsheet at bin.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, May 28, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
They are a full-service waste management company providing non-hazardous solid waste collection and landfill disposal services for municipal, commercial, industrial and residential customers in five provinces and ten US states. Two-thirds of their business is in US. Its web site is here Progressive Waste.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When this company changed from an Income Trust to a corporation, it cut its dividend by 72%. This was in 2009. In 2011 it started to raise the dividends and they are up 20% between 2011 and 2013. The last dividend raise was in 2013 and it was an increase of 7.1%.
The thing is that the decrease in dividends brought the Dividend Payout Ratios into line with what they should be for a corporation. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 66% and for CFPS is 16%. For 2013 these ratios were 53% for EPS and 14% for CFPS.
As an Income Trust company the dividends yield were quite high. When this company changed to a corporation, the dividend yields became much lower. Currently the dividends are 2.11%. As a dividend growth stock, the dividends are moderate and the dividend increases are moderate. Since 2008 they also have not raised the dividends each year as there was no dividend increase in 2012.
I have earned a total return of 5.13% per year with 2.53% per year from capital gains and 2.60% per year from dividends. The 5 and 10 year total return is 13.66% and 5.87% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 2.68% and 4.38% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gain is at 10.97% and 1.49% per year.
The thing is that the stock price fell heavily in 2008 when it was known that the dividend was to be cut. The stock fell some 70%. Dividend investors do not like dividend cuts. However, I think that the company was wise to do this to get their Dividend Payout Ratios into line with what a corporation should have.
What complicates this stock is that in 2009 they started to report in US$ rather than CDN$. They also started to report in US GAAP rather than CDN GAAP. This is because they have business both in Canada and US. The dividends are still paid in CDN$.
The outstanding shares by increased by 14.8% and 15.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues. The shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue, Cash Flow and Earnings have grown well, Revenue per Share, CFPS and EPS have not done as well because of the increase in outstanding share. Basically, there is good growth in EPS, but not for Revenue per Share or CFPS.
2013 was a good year for this company, but 2011 was not. In 2011 they had good Revenue and Cash Flow, but that they had an EPS loss. However, the loss in 2011 was due to a non-cash impairment loss (that is they wrote off goodwill).
Revenue has grown over the past 5 and 10 years at 17% and 32% per year. Revenue per share has grown at 2.2% and 13.68% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Since I only have dated back to 2002, I only can look at 5 year running averages over the past 5 years and the Revenue per shares has grown at 3.3% per year. These figures are in US$.
Net Income has grown at the rate of 25% and 28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running average has only grown at 4.2% per year and this is because of the big net income loss in 2011. The EPS has grown at 9% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running average is down by 9%, but again this is because of the loss in 2011. I think that the growth over the past 5 and 10 years is more accurate measure of the growth of this company. These figures are in US$.
Cash flow has grown at the rate of 17% and 28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share's is much less at 1.5% and 10% per year. If you look at the 5 year running averages, the CFPS has grown at 2% per year. CFPS just has not grown much over the past 5 years.
The Return on Equity has always been quite low for this company. For 2013 it was the highest it has ever been at 9.1%. The 5 year median is just 5.3%. The ROE is expected to be around 9.6% for 2014. The comprehensive income was lower than that on net income for 2013 coming in at just 6.5%. However, its 5 year median value is higher at 7.4%. The low ROE is certainly a negative for this company.
The Liquidity Ratio was low in 2013 at 1.00. This ratio has always been low and the company generally depends on cash flow to pay help cover current liabilities and if you add in cash flow less dividends the ratio is a health 2.29.
The Debt Ratio for this company has always been quite good. The ratio for 2013 is 1.61 and the 5 year median is 1.88. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are rather standard for an industrial stock and for 2013 were are 2.63 and 1.63.
This is an industrial dividend growth stock. You would buy it to diversify and for the exposure to the US market. See my spreadsheet at bin.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, May 28, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
They are a full-service waste management company providing non-hazardous solid waste collection and landfill disposal services for municipal, commercial, industrial and residential customers in five provinces and ten US states. Two-thirds of their business is in US. Its web site is here Progressive Waste.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, May 26, 2014
Leon's Furniture Ltd 2
On my other blog I am today writing about Portfolio Theory continue...
I own this stock of Leon's Furniture Ltd. (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF). I had some money in 2006 and this stock has been on MPL Communication's Investor Reporter list for some time. It was also on Mike Higgs' Dividend Growth Stock list. I bought some in 2006 and then some more in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2013.
Over the past year the insider trading report shows $2.6M of insider selling and $2.5M of net insider selling. There is a minimal amount of insider buying.
How insiders seem to get stock options is that they get non-voting shares that can be exchanged for voting shares. In 2013, 70,000 non-voting shares were exchanged for voting shares and increased the number of outstanding shares. The book value of these shares was at $659,000 and this numbers of shares was worth $979,000 at the end of 2013.
There is insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $13M, the CFO owning shares worth around $2.9M and the Chairman owning shares worth around $1.9M. Also, the Leon family owns around 70% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.45, 15.17 and 17.13. These are slightly higher than the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 14.25 based on a stock price of $14.25 and 2014 EPS estimates of $1.00. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable and towards the lower end of the reasonableness range.
I get a Graham price of $11.91. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.07, 1.22 and 1.38. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.20. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable and towards the lower end of the reasonableness range.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.18. The current P/B Ratio is 2.08 based on a stock price of $14.25 and a BVPS of $6.86. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable and towards the lower end of the reasonableness range.
I get a 5 year median dividend yield of 3.01% and the current dividend yield is some 6.6% lower at 2.81%. This stock price test says that the stock price is reasonable, but is on the pricy side of the reasonableness range.
However, if you look at historical dividend yield, the average dividend yield is 2.28% and the current dividend yield of 2.81% is some 23% higher. The historical median dividend yield is even lower at 1.82% a value some 54% lower than the current dividend yield. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable to cheap. However, it has been cheaper as the historical high dividend is around 3.23%.
There is an article in the Toronto Star that talks about the company's profit being down in the first quarter of 2014 because of extreme weather. There is a recent Forbes article saying that Leon's stock is oversold. (The term oversold means that the stock price is low.) A blogger called Average Dividend Yield did a review of this stock last year.
I do not plan to purchase more of this stock at present, but I am satisfied with this stock at present and I have no desire to sell any of it. I think that it will take some time for the company to absorb The Brick Ltd. furniture company. See my spreadsheet at lnf.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, May 23, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This company sells home furnishings, appliances and electronics through a chain of retail facilities and franchises located in Canada. Leon family owns 68% of this company. Its web site is here Leon's Furniture.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Leon's Furniture Ltd. (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF). I had some money in 2006 and this stock has been on MPL Communication's Investor Reporter list for some time. It was also on Mike Higgs' Dividend Growth Stock list. I bought some in 2006 and then some more in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2013.
Over the past year the insider trading report shows $2.6M of insider selling and $2.5M of net insider selling. There is a minimal amount of insider buying.
How insiders seem to get stock options is that they get non-voting shares that can be exchanged for voting shares. In 2013, 70,000 non-voting shares were exchanged for voting shares and increased the number of outstanding shares. The book value of these shares was at $659,000 and this numbers of shares was worth $979,000 at the end of 2013.
There is insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $13M, the CFO owning shares worth around $2.9M and the Chairman owning shares worth around $1.9M. Also, the Leon family owns around 70% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.45, 15.17 and 17.13. These are slightly higher than the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 14.25 based on a stock price of $14.25 and 2014 EPS estimates of $1.00. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable and towards the lower end of the reasonableness range.
I get a Graham price of $11.91. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.07, 1.22 and 1.38. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.20. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable and towards the lower end of the reasonableness range.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.18. The current P/B Ratio is 2.08 based on a stock price of $14.25 and a BVPS of $6.86. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable and towards the lower end of the reasonableness range.
I get a 5 year median dividend yield of 3.01% and the current dividend yield is some 6.6% lower at 2.81%. This stock price test says that the stock price is reasonable, but is on the pricy side of the reasonableness range.
However, if you look at historical dividend yield, the average dividend yield is 2.28% and the current dividend yield of 2.81% is some 23% higher. The historical median dividend yield is even lower at 1.82% a value some 54% lower than the current dividend yield. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable to cheap. However, it has been cheaper as the historical high dividend is around 3.23%.
There is an article in the Toronto Star that talks about the company's profit being down in the first quarter of 2014 because of extreme weather. There is a recent Forbes article saying that Leon's stock is oversold. (The term oversold means that the stock price is low.) A blogger called Average Dividend Yield did a review of this stock last year.
I do not plan to purchase more of this stock at present, but I am satisfied with this stock at present and I have no desire to sell any of it. I think that it will take some time for the company to absorb The Brick Ltd. furniture company. See my spreadsheet at lnf.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, May 23, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This company sells home furnishings, appliances and electronics through a chain of retail facilities and franchises located in Canada. Leon family owns 68% of this company. Its web site is here Leon's Furniture.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, May 23, 2014
Leon's Furniture Ltd
I own this stock of Leon's Furniture Ltd. (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF). I had some money in 2006 and this stock has been on MPL Communication's Investor Reporter list for some time. It was also on Mike Higgs' Dividend Growth Stock list. I bought some in 2006 and then some more in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2013.
This is a dividend growth stock. It has modest dividends and modest increases. The current dividend is 2.81% and the 5 year median dividend is 3.01%. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth has been at 7.4% and 12.3% per year.
This company does not do a dividend increase every year. However, it has a fairly good record. This is only the second time that dividends were not increased annually since 1994. The last dividend increase was for 11% in 2012. There was no increase in 2013 and none so far in 2014. However, this company gives out the occasional special dividend and there was a special dividend given in 2012.
The Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS and CFPS are 46% and 36%, respectively. The DPRs for 2013 were at 46% and 23% for ESP and CFPS. The DPR for EPS is expected to be lower in 2014. Both the dividend yield and DPRs are been increasing lately. At one time the dividends were below 2% and the DPR for EPS was around 28% and for CFPS around 24%. Part of the increase seems to be company policy but part is probably because the economy has not been kind to retail since the last recession.
I have made a total return on this stock of 7.59% per year with 4.48% from capital gains and 3.11% from dividends. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is at 9.87% and 8.47% per year. The portion of these returns attributable to dividends is 3.57% and 3.58% per year. The portion of these returns attributable to capital gain is 6.30% and 4.90% per year.
The outstanding shares have not been increased over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have increased due to Stock Options and decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue, Earnings and Cash flow have increased over the past 5 and 10 years. However, Revenue growth is much better than either Earnings or Cash Flow. The increases in Earnings are the lowest.
The Revenue per share, using 5 year running averages, has increased by 8.1% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Earnings per Share has increased, using the 5 year running averages at 1.6% and 5.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Cash Flow per share has increased by 3.5% and 7.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages.
The Return on Equity has been over 10% since 1995. The ROE for 2013 is at 14.9%. The ROE on comprehensive income was not as good in 2013, but it was a good figure at 14.3%.
Correction* The Liquidity Ratio has always been very good until this year and the one for 2013 is just 0.96. Prior to 2013, this ratio was always high and the 5 year median Liquidity Ratio is 2.62. The Debt Ratio used to be also quite good as has the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios. The 2013 Ratios are 1.42 for Debt and 3.39 and 2.39 for the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios. The 5 year median for Debt Ratio is 2.47 and for the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios is 1.46 and 0.46.
The change in the Debt Ratios occurred because of the purchase of The Brick Ltd. by Leon’s Furniture Ltd.
My investment has done fine in this stock. The total return is not high, but it is respectable. This is a retail stock and you buy retail stock for diversification. My dividend yield on my original investment in 2006 is at 3.61%. This is higher than the current dividend yield of 2.81% and is a respectable yield. I plan to hold on to the shares that I have in this company. See my spreadsheet at lnf.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, May 26, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This company sells home furnishings, appliances and electronics through a chain of retail facilities and franchises located in Canada. Leon family owns 68% of this company. Its web site is here Leon's Furniture.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This is a dividend growth stock. It has modest dividends and modest increases. The current dividend is 2.81% and the 5 year median dividend is 3.01%. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth has been at 7.4% and 12.3% per year.
This company does not do a dividend increase every year. However, it has a fairly good record. This is only the second time that dividends were not increased annually since 1994. The last dividend increase was for 11% in 2012. There was no increase in 2013 and none so far in 2014. However, this company gives out the occasional special dividend and there was a special dividend given in 2012.
The Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS and CFPS are 46% and 36%, respectively. The DPRs for 2013 were at 46% and 23% for ESP and CFPS. The DPR for EPS is expected to be lower in 2014. Both the dividend yield and DPRs are been increasing lately. At one time the dividends were below 2% and the DPR for EPS was around 28% and for CFPS around 24%. Part of the increase seems to be company policy but part is probably because the economy has not been kind to retail since the last recession.
I have made a total return on this stock of 7.59% per year with 4.48% from capital gains and 3.11% from dividends. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is at 9.87% and 8.47% per year. The portion of these returns attributable to dividends is 3.57% and 3.58% per year. The portion of these returns attributable to capital gain is 6.30% and 4.90% per year.
The outstanding shares have not been increased over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have increased due to Stock Options and decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue, Earnings and Cash flow have increased over the past 5 and 10 years. However, Revenue growth is much better than either Earnings or Cash Flow. The increases in Earnings are the lowest.
The Revenue per share, using 5 year running averages, has increased by 8.1% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Earnings per Share has increased, using the 5 year running averages at 1.6% and 5.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Cash Flow per share has increased by 3.5% and 7.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages.
The Return on Equity has been over 10% since 1995. The ROE for 2013 is at 14.9%. The ROE on comprehensive income was not as good in 2013, but it was a good figure at 14.3%.
Correction* The Liquidity Ratio has always been very good until this year and the one for 2013 is just 0.96. Prior to 2013, this ratio was always high and the 5 year median Liquidity Ratio is 2.62. The Debt Ratio used to be also quite good as has the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios. The 2013 Ratios are 1.42 for Debt and 3.39 and 2.39 for the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios. The 5 year median for Debt Ratio is 2.47 and for the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios is 1.46 and 0.46.
The change in the Debt Ratios occurred because of the purchase of The Brick Ltd. by Leon’s Furniture Ltd.
My investment has done fine in this stock. The total return is not high, but it is respectable. This is a retail stock and you buy retail stock for diversification. My dividend yield on my original investment in 2006 is at 3.61%. This is higher than the current dividend yield of 2.81% and is a respectable yield. I plan to hold on to the shares that I have in this company. See my spreadsheet at lnf.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, May 26, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This company sells home furnishings, appliances and electronics through a chain of retail facilities and franchises located in Canada. Leon family owns 68% of this company. Its web site is here Leon's Furniture.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, May 22, 2014
Ensign Energy Services 2
On my other blog I am today writing about buying Preferred Shares continue...
I own this stock of Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF). I bought this stock in June 2012. Stock is a good one and was rather cheap in June of 2012. I had been following this stock for some time.
When I look at insider trading, there is only net selling of $2M which is a fairly small amount of the capitalization of this stock (0.08%). In 2013 the outstanding shares seem to be increased by 189,000 shares. This is also a very small number at 0.12% of the outstanding shares. (Often these numbers are around 0.5%).
There is insider ownership with the CEO owning share worth around $7M, the CFO owning shares worth around $16.2M and the Chairman owning shares worth around $426M. The Chairman owns around 17% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.98, 16.40 and 21.38. These ratios are higher than the 10 year ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 15.23 based on a stock price of $16.14 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.06. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $17.92. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.83, 1.07 and 1.29. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.90. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. On an absolute basis, a P/GP Ratio of 1.00 or lower says that the stock price is good.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio 1.62. The current P/B Ratio is 1.20, a value some 26% lower. This stock test suggests that the stock price is cheap.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.55% and the current one is some 14% higher at 2.91. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap to reasonable. The historical average dividend yield at 2.12% and the historical median dividend yield at 1.47% are much lower than the current dividend yield. Both these tests suggest that the stock price is quite cheap. (However the stock price has been relatively cheaper in the past as the historical high dividend yield is 3.33%.
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 months stock price consensus is 16.29% with 13.38% from capital gains and 2.91% from dividends.
Raymond James issued an Outperform rating on this stock in early May 2014. The Dividend Blogger talks about this stock being on the Dividend Achievers list. The Calgary Herald talks about this company's plans to accelerate its rig building this year and next as industry optimism ramps up.
This company is apparently being accused of Backdating stock options. The CBC Article is here. This happened before 2006, but it is a serious accusation and something that should worry investors. Unfortunately in the early 2000's a number of companies were accused of this and no doubt some companies did it. The practice of seems to have stopped as companies because aware how upset investors were at the practice.
In my point of view the time to invest in good stocks are when they are cheap. I know people think that this industry will take a while to recover and any investment can wait. My experience has been that waiting is a fool's game. It is hard to catch the right time to invest. If I see a stock I like and it is cheap, I will buy. See my spreadsheet at esi.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, May 21, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Ensign Energy Services Inc. is an industry leader in the delivery of oilfield services in Canada, the United States and internationally. They are one of the world's leading land-based drilling and well servicing contractors serving crude oil, natural gas and geothermal operators. Its web site is here Ensign Energy.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF). I bought this stock in June 2012. Stock is a good one and was rather cheap in June of 2012. I had been following this stock for some time.
When I look at insider trading, there is only net selling of $2M which is a fairly small amount of the capitalization of this stock (0.08%). In 2013 the outstanding shares seem to be increased by 189,000 shares. This is also a very small number at 0.12% of the outstanding shares. (Often these numbers are around 0.5%).
There is insider ownership with the CEO owning share worth around $7M, the CFO owning shares worth around $16.2M and the Chairman owning shares worth around $426M. The Chairman owns around 17% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.98, 16.40 and 21.38. These ratios are higher than the 10 year ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 15.23 based on a stock price of $16.14 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.06. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $17.92. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.83, 1.07 and 1.29. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.90. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. On an absolute basis, a P/GP Ratio of 1.00 or lower says that the stock price is good.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio 1.62. The current P/B Ratio is 1.20, a value some 26% lower. This stock test suggests that the stock price is cheap.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.55% and the current one is some 14% higher at 2.91. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap to reasonable. The historical average dividend yield at 2.12% and the historical median dividend yield at 1.47% are much lower than the current dividend yield. Both these tests suggest that the stock price is quite cheap. (However the stock price has been relatively cheaper in the past as the historical high dividend yield is 3.33%.
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 months stock price consensus is 16.29% with 13.38% from capital gains and 2.91% from dividends.
Raymond James issued an Outperform rating on this stock in early May 2014. The Dividend Blogger talks about this stock being on the Dividend Achievers list. The Calgary Herald talks about this company's plans to accelerate its rig building this year and next as industry optimism ramps up.
This company is apparently being accused of Backdating stock options. The CBC Article is here. This happened before 2006, but it is a serious accusation and something that should worry investors. Unfortunately in the early 2000's a number of companies were accused of this and no doubt some companies did it. The practice of seems to have stopped as companies because aware how upset investors were at the practice.
In my point of view the time to invest in good stocks are when they are cheap. I know people think that this industry will take a while to recover and any investment can wait. My experience has been that waiting is a fool's game. It is hard to catch the right time to invest. If I see a stock I like and it is cheap, I will buy. See my spreadsheet at esi.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, May 21, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Ensign Energy Services Inc. is an industry leader in the delivery of oilfield services in Canada, the United States and internationally. They are one of the world's leading land-based drilling and well servicing contractors serving crude oil, natural gas and geothermal operators. Its web site is here Ensign Energy.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
Ensign Energy Services
This day marks 6 years since I started blogging online about stocks. I started May 21, 2008.
I own this stock of Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF). I bought this stock in June 2012. Stock is a good one and was rather cheap in June of 2012. I had been following this stock for some time.
Since this company started to pay dividends in 1995, they have raised their dividends each year. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 5.76% and 14.11% per year. Dividend increases slow down around 2008. The latest increase was in 2014 and it was for 6.8%.
The dividend yield is currently at a moderate rate and the increases are moderate. The dividend yield used to be low with the increases being quite good. A lot of companies have had problems with the 2008 recession and this company is no different.
The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS is at 42% and for Cash Flow is at 15%. The DPR for EPS used to be lower (around 17 to 18%). The DPR for 2013 was at 52% for EPS and 15% for CF. The 2013 financial year was not a good one for earnings. The DPRs for EPS is expected to be lower in the future.
My total return on this stock is at 15.49% per year with 11.94% from capital gains and 3.55% from dividends. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is at 4.15% and 5% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 1.48% and 2.55% per year over the last 5 and 10 years. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 2.68% and 2.45% per year over the last 5 and 10 years.
The outstanding shares have not changed over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow is a lot better over the past 10 years and not very good over the past 5 years.
Revenues have grown at the rate of 2.5% and 9.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages. EPS is down by 6.5% per year and up by 7.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages. Cash Flow is up by 3.6% and 12.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages. As you can see growth is better in Revenue and Cash Flow than the Earnings.
Looking at the first quarter of 2014, Revenue is up, Earnings are down and Cash Flow is level. The good thing is that there was a good improvement in comprehensive income.
Since 2008, the Return on Equity was been under 10% several times. It has been less than 10% 3 times in the last 5 years. The ROE for 2013 was just 6.6%. However, the comprehensive income, although not great was higher at 8.7%.
The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is low at 0.98. The Liquidity Ratio is often low and if it is below 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. They depend on cash flow to do this. If you add cash flow less dividends to this ratio, it because much better at 1.47. The Debt Ratio has always been good and the current one is at 2.35. The 5 year median Debt Ratio is 2.53. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.74 and 0.74.
There is a number of ways of making money from our resources. One is to buy companies that service the resource industry. The company is also a dividend growth company, just the sort I like. See my spreadsheet at esi.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, May 22, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Ensign Energy Services Inc. is an industry leader in the delivery of oilfield services in Canada, the United States and internationally. They are one of the world's leading land-based drilling and well servicing contractors serving crude oil, natural gas and geothermal operators. Its web site is here Ensign Energy.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF). I bought this stock in June 2012. Stock is a good one and was rather cheap in June of 2012. I had been following this stock for some time.
Since this company started to pay dividends in 1995, they have raised their dividends each year. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 5.76% and 14.11% per year. Dividend increases slow down around 2008. The latest increase was in 2014 and it was for 6.8%.
The dividend yield is currently at a moderate rate and the increases are moderate. The dividend yield used to be low with the increases being quite good. A lot of companies have had problems with the 2008 recession and this company is no different.
The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS is at 42% and for Cash Flow is at 15%. The DPR for EPS used to be lower (around 17 to 18%). The DPR for 2013 was at 52% for EPS and 15% for CF. The 2013 financial year was not a good one for earnings. The DPRs for EPS is expected to be lower in the future.
My total return on this stock is at 15.49% per year with 11.94% from capital gains and 3.55% from dividends. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is at 4.15% and 5% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 1.48% and 2.55% per year over the last 5 and 10 years. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 2.68% and 2.45% per year over the last 5 and 10 years.
The outstanding shares have not changed over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow is a lot better over the past 10 years and not very good over the past 5 years.
Revenues have grown at the rate of 2.5% and 9.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages. EPS is down by 6.5% per year and up by 7.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages. Cash Flow is up by 3.6% and 12.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages. As you can see growth is better in Revenue and Cash Flow than the Earnings.
Looking at the first quarter of 2014, Revenue is up, Earnings are down and Cash Flow is level. The good thing is that there was a good improvement in comprehensive income.
Since 2008, the Return on Equity was been under 10% several times. It has been less than 10% 3 times in the last 5 years. The ROE for 2013 was just 6.6%. However, the comprehensive income, although not great was higher at 8.7%.
The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is low at 0.98. The Liquidity Ratio is often low and if it is below 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. They depend on cash flow to do this. If you add cash flow less dividends to this ratio, it because much better at 1.47. The Debt Ratio has always been good and the current one is at 2.35. The 5 year median Debt Ratio is 2.53. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.74 and 0.74.
There is a number of ways of making money from our resources. One is to buy companies that service the resource industry. The company is also a dividend growth company, just the sort I like. See my spreadsheet at esi.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, May 22, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Ensign Energy Services Inc. is an industry leader in the delivery of oilfield services in Canada, the United States and internationally. They are one of the world's leading land-based drilling and well servicing contractors serving crude oil, natural gas and geothermal operators. Its web site is here Ensign Energy.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, May 20, 2014
Power Financial Corp. 2
On my other blog I am today writing about one reason to buy blue chip stocks continue...
I own this stock of Power Financial Corp. (TSX-PWF, OTC-POFNF). When I sold my CIBC bond I had money to spend. This was a stock on my hit list and was selling at a reasonable price. This stock was on Mike Higgs' dividend growth stocks and that is why I started a spreadsheet to investigate this stock in the first place.
The insider trading report shows insider selling in June of 2013 of some $86M worth of shares. There is no insider buying. For insiders there are not only stock options but also other stock option type vehicles called Deferred Share Units, Performance Deferred Share Units and Performance Share Units. The Performance Units seem only for the CEO.
There is some insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $14.3M and a director having shares worth around $37M. Although, I must say that same director had shares worth around $114M last year. The Desmarais family still own a lot of shares worth around some $16.7B. There is an article in the Financial Post of the Desmarais family selling shares in January of this year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.38, 12.11 and 13.94. The current P/E Ratio is 11.66 based on a stock price of $34.28 and 2014 EPS estimate of $2.94. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable and towards the lower end of the reasonableness range.
I get a Graham Price of $36.20. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.91, 1.24 and 1.12. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.95 based on a stock price $34.28. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable and towards the lower end of the reasonableness range. Also a stock is considered cheap on an absolute basis when the P/GP Ratio is 1.00 or below.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.87. The current P/B Ratio is 1.75 based on a stock price of $34.28 and a BVPS value of $19.81. The current P/B Ratio is around 8% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 5.05% and the current dividend yield at 4.08 is some 19% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is expensive. However, dividend yields have recently been rather high for this stock.
The historical average dividend yield is 3.85% a value that is 7% lower than the current dividend yield. The historical median dividend yield is even lower at 2.97% and this yield is some 37% lower than the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable to cheap.
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month target stock price is $38.60. This implies a total return of $16.69% with 12.6% from capital gains and 4.08% from dividends.
There is a Global Post article talking about this company having a good first quarter in 2014. Sunny of The Dividend Girl site does not like this company. She has a unique view of the world. The blog called How To Invest Online shows a unique view of Canadian stocks. He looked at what stocks were in Dividend ETFs. This company was included in a lot of ETFs.
The stock market always looks to the future. People see that insurance companies are starting to revive and they are pushing up the stock prices because they see a better future for these companies. Stock prices tend to revive prior to an industry reviving. This is common. For insurance companies to do really well, we need to see better interest rates.
You will know that life insurance companies have revived when they start again to raise their dividend payments. I am continuing to hold my shares in the Life Insurance companies I own. I think that I will do well in the longer term and I am a long term investor. See my spreadsheet at pwf.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, April 16, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This company is a holding and management company. Its operations provide a range of individual and corporate financial and fiduciary services in North America and Europe. It holds interest in the following companies: Great-West Lifeco, Great-West Life, London Life, Canada Life, Great-West Life & Annuity, Putnam Investments, IGM Financial, Investors Group Mackenzie Financial, and Pargesa Group. Its web site is here Power Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Power Financial Corp. (TSX-PWF, OTC-POFNF). When I sold my CIBC bond I had money to spend. This was a stock on my hit list and was selling at a reasonable price. This stock was on Mike Higgs' dividend growth stocks and that is why I started a spreadsheet to investigate this stock in the first place.
The insider trading report shows insider selling in June of 2013 of some $86M worth of shares. There is no insider buying. For insiders there are not only stock options but also other stock option type vehicles called Deferred Share Units, Performance Deferred Share Units and Performance Share Units. The Performance Units seem only for the CEO.
There is some insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $14.3M and a director having shares worth around $37M. Although, I must say that same director had shares worth around $114M last year. The Desmarais family still own a lot of shares worth around some $16.7B. There is an article in the Financial Post of the Desmarais family selling shares in January of this year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.38, 12.11 and 13.94. The current P/E Ratio is 11.66 based on a stock price of $34.28 and 2014 EPS estimate of $2.94. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable and towards the lower end of the reasonableness range.
I get a Graham Price of $36.20. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.91, 1.24 and 1.12. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.95 based on a stock price $34.28. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable and towards the lower end of the reasonableness range. Also a stock is considered cheap on an absolute basis when the P/GP Ratio is 1.00 or below.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.87. The current P/B Ratio is 1.75 based on a stock price of $34.28 and a BVPS value of $19.81. The current P/B Ratio is around 8% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 5.05% and the current dividend yield at 4.08 is some 19% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is expensive. However, dividend yields have recently been rather high for this stock.
The historical average dividend yield is 3.85% a value that is 7% lower than the current dividend yield. The historical median dividend yield is even lower at 2.97% and this yield is some 37% lower than the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable to cheap.
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month target stock price is $38.60. This implies a total return of $16.69% with 12.6% from capital gains and 4.08% from dividends.
There is a Global Post article talking about this company having a good first quarter in 2014. Sunny of The Dividend Girl site does not like this company. She has a unique view of the world. The blog called How To Invest Online shows a unique view of Canadian stocks. He looked at what stocks were in Dividend ETFs. This company was included in a lot of ETFs.
The stock market always looks to the future. People see that insurance companies are starting to revive and they are pushing up the stock prices because they see a better future for these companies. Stock prices tend to revive prior to an industry reviving. This is common. For insurance companies to do really well, we need to see better interest rates.
You will know that life insurance companies have revived when they start again to raise their dividend payments. I am continuing to hold my shares in the Life Insurance companies I own. I think that I will do well in the longer term and I am a long term investor. See my spreadsheet at pwf.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, April 16, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This company is a holding and management company. Its operations provide a range of individual and corporate financial and fiduciary services in North America and Europe. It holds interest in the following companies: Great-West Lifeco, Great-West Life, London Life, Canada Life, Great-West Life & Annuity, Putnam Investments, IGM Financial, Investors Group Mackenzie Financial, and Pargesa Group. Its web site is here Power Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, May 16, 2014
Power Financial Corp.
I own this stock of Power Financial Corp. (TSX-PWF, OTC-POFNF). When I sold my CIBC bond I had money to spend. This was a stock on my hit list and was selling at a reasonable price. This stock was on Mike Higgs' dividend growth stocks and that is why I started a spreadsheet to investigate this stock in the first place.
Until the recent financial crisis this company had a very good history of raising dividends. Dividends were good (2% to4% range) and increases were also good (with a median of 18% per year). However, since the financial crisis, dividend increases have stopped. I expect that they will restart again, but it is hard to say when. Some analysts think that they will restart soon, but most do not. I would think that we need to have interest rates increasing before this will happen.
The last dividend increase was in 2009. Dividend yields have been historically high lately (in the 4% to 5% range). The current dividend yield is 4.46% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 5.05%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios have been higher lately than they have been historically. Before the recent financial crisis the DPR for EPS was around a median of 35% and for CFPS was around a median of 19%. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is at 51% and for CFPS is 16%. The DPR for EPS for 2013 was 53% and for CFPS was at 16%.
My total return on this stock is 8.62% per year with 4.5% per year from capital gains and 4.12% per year from dividends. The total return on this stock over the past 5 and 10 years is at 6.32% and 4.51% per year. The portion of these returns attributable to capital gains was at 1.98% and 0.69% per year. The portion of these returns attributable to dividends is at 4.34% and 3.81% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased only marginally over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares have increased due to Stock Options and Employee Stock Purchase Plan. The company has done better in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years.
Using the 5 year running averages, Revenue per share is up by 1.7% and 6.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Using 5 year running averages EPS is down by 1% and up by 4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Using 5 year running averages cash flow per share is up by 5.7% and 16.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. As you can see, the CFPS growth is the best.
The first quarter was rather good for this company. If you compare the last 12 months to the end of March 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of 2013, Revenue is up 8.4%, EPS is up by 4.2% and Cash Flow is up by 12.3%. This is a good start to the year and values are going in the direction that the analysts had expected.
The Return on Equity was over 10% each year until the latest financial crisis. Since then it has been below 10%. The ROE for 2013 is at 6.9% and the 5 year median ROE is also at 6.9%. The ROE is better on Comprehensive Income in 2013 than that on Net Income. Here is ROE is 10.7%, a good showing. However, the 5 year median ROE on comprehensive income is low at just 6%.
The Liquidity Ratio is good on this stock at 2.73, but this ratio is not very important for financial stocks. The Debt Ratio is at 1.09 and is fine for a financial stock as are the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 12.61 and 11.61.
I have a fair bit of my portfolio in insurance companies and I expect them to recover. I am a long term investor, so I do not change my base stock much. This company is recovering from the last financial crisis, but we will need to see better or should I say more normal interest rates for a full recovery. Currently this stock is doing what I expect. See my spreadsheet at pwf.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, May 20, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This company is a holding and management company. Its operations provide a range of individual and corporate financial and fiduciary services in North America and Europe. It holds interest in the following companies: Great-West Lifeco, Great-West Life, London Life, Canada Life, Great-West Life & Annuity, Putnam Investments, IGM Financial, Investors Group Mackenzie Financial, and Pargesa Group. Its web site is here Power Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Until the recent financial crisis this company had a very good history of raising dividends. Dividends were good (2% to4% range) and increases were also good (with a median of 18% per year). However, since the financial crisis, dividend increases have stopped. I expect that they will restart again, but it is hard to say when. Some analysts think that they will restart soon, but most do not. I would think that we need to have interest rates increasing before this will happen.
The last dividend increase was in 2009. Dividend yields have been historically high lately (in the 4% to 5% range). The current dividend yield is 4.46% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 5.05%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios have been higher lately than they have been historically. Before the recent financial crisis the DPR for EPS was around a median of 35% and for CFPS was around a median of 19%. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is at 51% and for CFPS is 16%. The DPR for EPS for 2013 was 53% and for CFPS was at 16%.
My total return on this stock is 8.62% per year with 4.5% per year from capital gains and 4.12% per year from dividends. The total return on this stock over the past 5 and 10 years is at 6.32% and 4.51% per year. The portion of these returns attributable to capital gains was at 1.98% and 0.69% per year. The portion of these returns attributable to dividends is at 4.34% and 3.81% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased only marginally over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares have increased due to Stock Options and Employee Stock Purchase Plan. The company has done better in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years.
Using the 5 year running averages, Revenue per share is up by 1.7% and 6.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Using 5 year running averages EPS is down by 1% and up by 4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Using 5 year running averages cash flow per share is up by 5.7% and 16.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. As you can see, the CFPS growth is the best.
The first quarter was rather good for this company. If you compare the last 12 months to the end of March 2014 to the 12 month period to the end of 2013, Revenue is up 8.4%, EPS is up by 4.2% and Cash Flow is up by 12.3%. This is a good start to the year and values are going in the direction that the analysts had expected.
The Return on Equity was over 10% each year until the latest financial crisis. Since then it has been below 10%. The ROE for 2013 is at 6.9% and the 5 year median ROE is also at 6.9%. The ROE is better on Comprehensive Income in 2013 than that on Net Income. Here is ROE is 10.7%, a good showing. However, the 5 year median ROE on comprehensive income is low at just 6%.
The Liquidity Ratio is good on this stock at 2.73, but this ratio is not very important for financial stocks. The Debt Ratio is at 1.09 and is fine for a financial stock as are the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 12.61 and 11.61.
I have a fair bit of my portfolio in insurance companies and I expect them to recover. I am a long term investor, so I do not change my base stock much. This company is recovering from the last financial crisis, but we will need to see better or should I say more normal interest rates for a full recovery. Currently this stock is doing what I expect. See my spreadsheet at pwf.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, May 20, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This company is a holding and management company. Its operations provide a range of individual and corporate financial and fiduciary services in North America and Europe. It holds interest in the following companies: Great-West Lifeco, Great-West Life, London Life, Canada Life, Great-West Life & Annuity, Putnam Investments, IGM Financial, Investors Group Mackenzie Financial, and Pargesa Group. Its web site is here Power Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, May 15, 2014
Fortis Inc.
On my other blog I am today writing about research newsletters I get and what blogs I look at continue...
I own this stock of Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS, OTC- FRTSF). I bought this stock as Newfoundland Light and Power Co. Ltd. Class A shares in 1987. I bought more in 1995 and 1998. In 2005 I sold some Fortis from my RRSP account as I needed to get $20,000 in this account and I was concerned about the debt liquidity of this stock. However, this stock continues to be one of my big stock holdings.
I have made a return of 12.87% per year on my shares in this company with 7.72% per year from capital gains and 5.15% per year from dividends. This is a solid blue chip utility stock. Fortis Inc. brags that it has raised it dividends each year since 1972, some 42 years.
The dividend growth on this stock is at 4.4% and 9.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Why the 10 year increase is so much better than the 5 year increase is because in 2007 and 2008 the company raised their dividends each of these years by 22%.
Big dividend increases is not what generally occurs for this company. The long term median rate without 2007 or 2008 is 3.92%. The dividends were last raised in 2014 and the increase was 3.2%. The 5 year dividend yield is 3.5% and the current dividend yield is 3.95%. The dividend yield is good and the dividend increases are moderate. On the stock I bought in 1987, some 26 years ago, I am making a yield on my original purchase price of 27.5%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The 5 year median DPR for earnings is 69% and the 5 year DPR for CFPS is 26.6%. The DPR for 2013 is at $71.7% for EPS and 28% for CFPS.
Outstanding shares have increased by 4.7% and 11.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares have increased due to Stock Options, Share Issues, DRIP, Employee Share Purchase Plan and Debenture Conversions. Growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash flow are fine, but the 5 year running averages are better than the 5 and 10 year growth. This is mainly because exactly 5 years ago was a very good year for this company.
Revenues have increased by 0.7% and 17% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Using the 5 year running averages, Revenues are up by 11.9% and 19.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share is down by 3.8% per year and up by 4.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, Revenue per Share is up by 4.4% and 6.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Net Income is up by 11.38% and 19% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings per Share are up by 2.5% and 5.4% per year over the 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 5% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years if you use the 5 year running averages.
Cash Flow is up by 8.7% and 20.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 3.8% and 7.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running averages are a bit better with growth at 7.4% and 9.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Liquidity Ratio is generally not great and the company depends on cash flow to pay current liabilities. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is 0.62 and if you add in cash flow after dividends, you get a ratio of 0.93. If you consider the current year portion of the long term debt, the ratio is 0.99 and if you add in cash flow after dividend it rises to 1.48. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.55 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are ok for a utility at 2.81 and 1.81.
As far as the Return on Equity goes, this company has never had a very high one. The 10 year median ROE is 7.4%, which is close to the 5 year median of 7.2%. The ROE on comprehensive income is not great either with a 5 year median at 7.0%. The ROE for 2013 was at 6% and the ROE on comprehensive income for 2014 was at 7%.
I am happy with my return on this stock. It is better than I had expected. My expectation is for utility stock to return 8% total return per year with around 4% from capital gains and 4% from dividends. See my spreadsheet at fts.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, May 15, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Fortis is a diversified, international distribution utility holding company. Its regulated holdings include electric distribution utilities in five Canadian provinces and three Caribbean countries and a natural gas utility in British Columbia. Fortis owns and operates non-regulated generation assets across Canada and in Belize and Upper New York State. It also owns hotels and commercial office and retail space primarily in Atlantic Canada. Its web site is here Fortis Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS, OTC- FRTSF). I bought this stock as Newfoundland Light and Power Co. Ltd. Class A shares in 1987. I bought more in 1995 and 1998. In 2005 I sold some Fortis from my RRSP account as I needed to get $20,000 in this account and I was concerned about the debt liquidity of this stock. However, this stock continues to be one of my big stock holdings.
I have made a return of 12.87% per year on my shares in this company with 7.72% per year from capital gains and 5.15% per year from dividends. This is a solid blue chip utility stock. Fortis Inc. brags that it has raised it dividends each year since 1972, some 42 years.
The dividend growth on this stock is at 4.4% and 9.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Why the 10 year increase is so much better than the 5 year increase is because in 2007 and 2008 the company raised their dividends each of these years by 22%.
Big dividend increases is not what generally occurs for this company. The long term median rate without 2007 or 2008 is 3.92%. The dividends were last raised in 2014 and the increase was 3.2%. The 5 year dividend yield is 3.5% and the current dividend yield is 3.95%. The dividend yield is good and the dividend increases are moderate. On the stock I bought in 1987, some 26 years ago, I am making a yield on my original purchase price of 27.5%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The 5 year median DPR for earnings is 69% and the 5 year DPR for CFPS is 26.6%. The DPR for 2013 is at $71.7% for EPS and 28% for CFPS.
Outstanding shares have increased by 4.7% and 11.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares have increased due to Stock Options, Share Issues, DRIP, Employee Share Purchase Plan and Debenture Conversions. Growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash flow are fine, but the 5 year running averages are better than the 5 and 10 year growth. This is mainly because exactly 5 years ago was a very good year for this company.
Revenues have increased by 0.7% and 17% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Using the 5 year running averages, Revenues are up by 11.9% and 19.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share is down by 3.8% per year and up by 4.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, Revenue per Share is up by 4.4% and 6.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Net Income is up by 11.38% and 19% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings per Share are up by 2.5% and 5.4% per year over the 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 5% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years if you use the 5 year running averages.
Cash Flow is up by 8.7% and 20.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 3.8% and 7.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running averages are a bit better with growth at 7.4% and 9.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Liquidity Ratio is generally not great and the company depends on cash flow to pay current liabilities. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is 0.62 and if you add in cash flow after dividends, you get a ratio of 0.93. If you consider the current year portion of the long term debt, the ratio is 0.99 and if you add in cash flow after dividend it rises to 1.48. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.55 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are ok for a utility at 2.81 and 1.81.
As far as the Return on Equity goes, this company has never had a very high one. The 10 year median ROE is 7.4%, which is close to the 5 year median of 7.2%. The ROE on comprehensive income is not great either with a 5 year median at 7.0%. The ROE for 2013 was at 6% and the ROE on comprehensive income for 2014 was at 7%.
I am happy with my return on this stock. It is better than I had expected. My expectation is for utility stock to return 8% total return per year with around 4% from capital gains and 4% from dividends. See my spreadsheet at fts.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, May 15, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Fortis is a diversified, international distribution utility holding company. Its regulated holdings include electric distribution utilities in five Canadian provinces and three Caribbean countries and a natural gas utility in British Columbia. Fortis owns and operates non-regulated generation assets across Canada and in Belize and Upper New York State. It also owns hotels and commercial office and retail space primarily in Atlantic Canada. Its web site is here Fortis Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Fortis Inc. 2
On my other blog I am today writing Kathleen Gabriel's new art show continue...
I own this stock of Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS, OTC- FRTSF). I bought this stock as Newfoundland Light and Power Co. Ltd. Class A shares in 1987. I bought more in 1995 and 1998. This stock continues to be one of my big stock holdings.
When I look at insider trading, there is $3.2M of insider selling and net insider selling of $2.9M with insider buying at 0.3M. There are stock options but also other stock options like vehicles called Performance Share Units and Deferred Share Units.
There is insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $14.3M and the CFO owning shares worth around $4M. There is not that much insider ownership beyond the CEO and CFO. Last year outstanding shares were increase because of stock options by 431,000 shares with a book value of $10M and worth around $13M at the end of 2013. This number of shares is less than 1% (at 0.2%) of total outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.73, 18.49 and 20.24. They are down slightly from the 10 year values. The current P/E Ratio is 19.51 based on a stock price of $32.38 and 2014 earnings estimates of $1.66. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but towards the higher end of the reasonableness range.
I get a Graham price of $29.33. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios of 0.99, 1.16 and 1.26. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.10 based on a stock price of $32.38. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.59. The current P/B Ratio is 1.41 based on a BVPS of $23.03 and a stock price of $32.38. The current P/B Ratio is some 11% lower than the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The 5 year dividend yield is 3.50% and the current dividend yield at 3.95% is some 12.8% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and towards the cheap end of the reasonableness range. This historical average dividend yield is 5.19%, a value above the current yield. However, the historical median dividend yield is 3.71% a value some 6.6% below the current dividend yield.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The most recommendations are in the Hold category and the consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $34.50. This implies a total return of 10.5%, with 6.55% from capital gains and 3.95% from dividends.
An Article in the Telegram out of St. John's talks about the president and CEO of Fortis retiring at the end of 2014. An article on WKRB's site talks about TD Bank raising the 12 month target stock price to $38.00 and keeping their stock recommendation at a Buy. An article on Ticker Report site talks about Fortis Inc missing the earnings target by $0.01. (If you are a long term investor, you should not care about one quarter.)
I would seem that the utility is currently at a reasonable price. I will be holding on to the shares I own, but will not be buying any more as I have enough of this stock in my portfolio. There is nothing surprising about insider ownership or stock options. See my spreadsheet at fts.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, May 14, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Fortis is a diversified, international distribution utility holding company. Its regulated holdings include electric distribution utilities in five Canadian provinces and three Caribbean countries and a natural gas utility in British Columbia. Fortis owns and operates non-regulated generation assets across Canada and in Belize and Upper New York State. It also owns hotels and commercial office and retail space primarily in Atlantic Canada. Its web site is here Fortis Inc..
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS, OTC- FRTSF). I bought this stock as Newfoundland Light and Power Co. Ltd. Class A shares in 1987. I bought more in 1995 and 1998. This stock continues to be one of my big stock holdings.
When I look at insider trading, there is $3.2M of insider selling and net insider selling of $2.9M with insider buying at 0.3M. There are stock options but also other stock options like vehicles called Performance Share Units and Deferred Share Units.
There is insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $14.3M and the CFO owning shares worth around $4M. There is not that much insider ownership beyond the CEO and CFO. Last year outstanding shares were increase because of stock options by 431,000 shares with a book value of $10M and worth around $13M at the end of 2013. This number of shares is less than 1% (at 0.2%) of total outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.73, 18.49 and 20.24. They are down slightly from the 10 year values. The current P/E Ratio is 19.51 based on a stock price of $32.38 and 2014 earnings estimates of $1.66. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but towards the higher end of the reasonableness range.
I get a Graham price of $29.33. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios of 0.99, 1.16 and 1.26. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.10 based on a stock price of $32.38. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.59. The current P/B Ratio is 1.41 based on a BVPS of $23.03 and a stock price of $32.38. The current P/B Ratio is some 11% lower than the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The 5 year dividend yield is 3.50% and the current dividend yield at 3.95% is some 12.8% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and towards the cheap end of the reasonableness range. This historical average dividend yield is 5.19%, a value above the current yield. However, the historical median dividend yield is 3.71% a value some 6.6% below the current dividend yield.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The most recommendations are in the Hold category and the consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $34.50. This implies a total return of 10.5%, with 6.55% from capital gains and 3.95% from dividends.
An Article in the Telegram out of St. John's talks about the president and CEO of Fortis retiring at the end of 2014. An article on WKRB's site talks about TD Bank raising the 12 month target stock price to $38.00 and keeping their stock recommendation at a Buy. An article on Ticker Report site talks about Fortis Inc missing the earnings target by $0.01. (If you are a long term investor, you should not care about one quarter.)
I would seem that the utility is currently at a reasonable price. I will be holding on to the shares I own, but will not be buying any more as I have enough of this stock in my portfolio. There is nothing surprising about insider ownership or stock options. See my spreadsheet at fts.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, May 14, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Fortis is a diversified, international distribution utility holding company. Its regulated holdings include electric distribution utilities in five Canadian provinces and three Caribbean countries and a natural gas utility in British Columbia. Fortis owns and operates non-regulated generation assets across Canada and in Belize and Upper New York State. It also owns hotels and commercial office and retail space primarily in Atlantic Canada. Its web site is here Fortis Inc..
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, May 13, 2014
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. 2
I own this stock of SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF). This stock was one from Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. I liked the idea of low dividends and high dividend increases. When you are building up a portfolio, low dividends are good for tax reasons. High dividend increases are attractive for the future.
When I look at insider trading, I find $8.3M of insider selling and $0.8M of insider buying with net insider selling of $7.5M. All the buying and selling is by officers of the company. Insiders not only have stock options but also have Restricted Share Units, Deferred Stock Units, and Participation Stock Units.
There are a lot of officers with stock options as the insider trading report has 10 pages covering this. The insider trading report generally some 6 to 8 people covered per page, but usually there are only a couple of pages to cover officers with stock options.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.06, 20.50 and 24.93. These 5 year P/E Ratios are lower than the 10 year P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 21.32 based on a stock price of $50.73 and 2014 EPS estimate of $2.38. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a Graham price of $27.21. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.64, 2.12 and 2.52. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.86 based on a stock price of $50.73. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 4.28. The current P/B Ratio is 3.67 is 14% lower. This P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $50.73 and a Book Value per Share of $13.83. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 5 year median dividend yield 1.65% and the current dividend yield is 1.89% a value some 14% lower. This shows that the current price is relatively reasonable, but towards the cheap end. The historical dividend yield tests show somewhat the same as the historical average dividend yield is 1.61%. The historical median dividend yield is just 1.38% a value 37% lower than the current dividend yield.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. However, there are a lot of analysts that are giving a recommendation of Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $55.80. This implies a total return of 11.89% with 9.99% from capital gains and 1.89% from dividends.
A recent article in the G&M Bertrand Marotte talks about this company having strong growth in earnings on lower revenue in the 1st quarter of 2014. According to Watch List News, Paradigm Capital recently raised the 12 month stock price but kept their Hold rating on this stock. The CEO of SNC-Lavalin talks about the sale AltaLink on BNN. On the Motley Fool Benjamin Sinclair talks about why the shares of SNC-Lavalin recently soared.
I realize that this company does have some current problems; however, I also believe that they will get resolved. I will be holding on to the shares I have. I will not be buying more as I already have sufficient shares in the company. On an historical dividend yield bases the stock price is a good one. See my spreadsheet at snc.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
SNC-Lavalin are involved with engineering and construction work around the world, this includes infrastructure and Buildings; infrastructure and construction; power (nuclear, thermal, hydro etc.); chemicals and petroleum; environmental projects; mining and metallurgy projects. They have offices and Canada and around the world, from Algeria to Vietnam, including Australia, Europe, Russia, Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, USA. Its web site is here SNC-Lavalin.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find $8.3M of insider selling and $0.8M of insider buying with net insider selling of $7.5M. All the buying and selling is by officers of the company. Insiders not only have stock options but also have Restricted Share Units, Deferred Stock Units, and Participation Stock Units.
There are a lot of officers with stock options as the insider trading report has 10 pages covering this. The insider trading report generally some 6 to 8 people covered per page, but usually there are only a couple of pages to cover officers with stock options.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.06, 20.50 and 24.93. These 5 year P/E Ratios are lower than the 10 year P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 21.32 based on a stock price of $50.73 and 2014 EPS estimate of $2.38. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a Graham price of $27.21. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.64, 2.12 and 2.52. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.86 based on a stock price of $50.73. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 4.28. The current P/B Ratio is 3.67 is 14% lower. This P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $50.73 and a Book Value per Share of $13.83. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 5 year median dividend yield 1.65% and the current dividend yield is 1.89% a value some 14% lower. This shows that the current price is relatively reasonable, but towards the cheap end. The historical dividend yield tests show somewhat the same as the historical average dividend yield is 1.61%. The historical median dividend yield is just 1.38% a value 37% lower than the current dividend yield.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. However, there are a lot of analysts that are giving a recommendation of Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $55.80. This implies a total return of 11.89% with 9.99% from capital gains and 1.89% from dividends.
A recent article in the G&M Bertrand Marotte talks about this company having strong growth in earnings on lower revenue in the 1st quarter of 2014. According to Watch List News, Paradigm Capital recently raised the 12 month stock price but kept their Hold rating on this stock. The CEO of SNC-Lavalin talks about the sale AltaLink on BNN. On the Motley Fool Benjamin Sinclair talks about why the shares of SNC-Lavalin recently soared.
I realize that this company does have some current problems; however, I also believe that they will get resolved. I will be holding on to the shares I have. I will not be buying more as I already have sufficient shares in the company. On an historical dividend yield bases the stock price is a good one. See my spreadsheet at snc.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
SNC-Lavalin are involved with engineering and construction work around the world, this includes infrastructure and Buildings; infrastructure and construction; power (nuclear, thermal, hydro etc.); chemicals and petroleum; environmental projects; mining and metallurgy projects. They have offices and Canada and around the world, from Algeria to Vietnam, including Australia, Europe, Russia, Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, USA. Its web site is here SNC-Lavalin.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, May 12, 2014
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.
On my other blog I am today writing about the research information sites I use continue...
I own this stock of SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF). This stock was one from Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. I liked the idea of low dividends and high dividend increases. When you are building up a portfolio, low dividends are good for tax reasons. High dividend increases are attractive for the future. By 2008 this stock had grown so much it was too high a percentage of my portfolio. I sold 1/3 of my stock.
In 2012 I bought 100 shares for my trading account. I was selling low paying dividend stocks from my Pension RRSP and I still wanted SNC as part of my portfolio. In the end SNC was not one of the low paying dividend stocks I sold, but I still bought some shares for my Trading Account.
This is a dividend growth stock with low dividends, but generally high dividend increases. The dividend increases have been lower recently and this is why the 5 and 10 years dividend increases have the pattern of 13.9% and 20.4% per year. The most recent dividend increase was for just 4.3% in 2014. The current dividend yield is 1.88% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 1.65%.
With low dividend yield you generally get low Dividend Payout Ratios. DPRs were low under 30% for EPS and under 20% for cash flow in the past. The 5 year median DPR are fine at 33% for EPS and 22% for CFPS. However, 2013 was not a good year this company and the DPR for 2013 was 383% for EPS and 69% for CFPS. But, one bad year change the nature of any particular investment.
The last few years have not been good for this company. The 5 year total return is just 0.39% per year with a capital loss of 1.24% per year and dividends at 1.62% per year. The 10 year total return is better 12.05% per year with 10.13% per year from capital gains and 1.93% per year from dividends. My total return is a 26.65% per year with 24.42% from capital gains and 2.23% from Dividends.
Outstanding shares have not changed over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares grow because and Stock Options and declined because of Buy Backs. Revenue has not grown much over the past 5 years, but the 10 years growth is quite good. The 5year running averages for the last 5 years is a bit better than the 5 year growth.
Last year was a bad year for EPS so the 5 and 10 years growth is down. However, if you look at the 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years, growth is good. Last year was not a good year for cash flow either, so the 5 and 10 year growth is not good. However, if you look at the 5 year running averages, growth is good.
Revenue per Share is up by 2% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, the growth is at 3% and 7.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect revenues for 2014 to slightly below those of 2013. For the 1st quarter, the 12 month revenue is down by 2.3% compared to 2013 revenues.
Earnings per Share are down by 35% and 8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, if you look at 5 year running averages growth, the growth is at 12% and 15% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect 2014 EPS to be much better than for 2015. The 12 month EPS to the end of the first quarter over 2013 is up by 112%.
Last year was not a good year for cash flow and cash flow is down by 15% per year over the past 5 years and only up by 3.3% per year over the past 10 years. Here again, if you look at 5 year running averages, the 5 and 10 year growth is quite good at 14.5% and 16.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect that the 2014 will be a better year for cash flow and the CFPS over the 12 months ending at the end of the first quarter compared to the 12 months ending in December 2013, is up by 57%.
The Return on Equity was low in 2013 at just 1.8%. However, ROE has been higher than 10% each year over the past 10 years except for 2013. The 5 year median ROE is at 20.5%. The ROE on comprehensive income was a bit better at 3.2%. Its 5 year median ROE is at 17.6%.
The current Liquidity Ratio for 2013 was low at 0.81. This ratio has always been low. The company uses the cash flow to pay for current liabilities and if you add in cash flow after dividends, the Liquidity Ratio becomes better, but still low at 0.91. Adding back in the current portion of long term debt ratio is 0.95 and with cash flow after dividends, ratio is 1.06.
The Debt Ratio is also low, but assets cover liabilities as ratio is 1.20. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are high for an industrial stock at 6.01 and 5.01, respectively. These are also higher than the 10 year median Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios which are at 4.75 and 3.78.
If you hold any stock for a long time, and I have had this stock for 16 years, the company will go through some tough times and/or reorganizations. This stock is no different. I expect that it will recover from its current rough time but it is hard to say exactly when. In the meantime, because I have held this stock for some 16 years, I am earning a return of 28% yield on my original stock purchase. See my spreadsheet at snc.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, May 13, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
SNC-Lavalin are involved with engineering and construction work around the world, this includes infrastructure and Buildings; infrastructure and construction; power (nuclear, thermal, hydro etc.); chemicals and petroleum; environmental projects; mining and metallurgy projects. They have offices and Canada and around the world, from Algeria to Vietnam, including Australia, Europe, Russia, Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, USA. Its web site is here SNC-Lavalin.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF). This stock was one from Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. I liked the idea of low dividends and high dividend increases. When you are building up a portfolio, low dividends are good for tax reasons. High dividend increases are attractive for the future. By 2008 this stock had grown so much it was too high a percentage of my portfolio. I sold 1/3 of my stock.
In 2012 I bought 100 shares for my trading account. I was selling low paying dividend stocks from my Pension RRSP and I still wanted SNC as part of my portfolio. In the end SNC was not one of the low paying dividend stocks I sold, but I still bought some shares for my Trading Account.
This is a dividend growth stock with low dividends, but generally high dividend increases. The dividend increases have been lower recently and this is why the 5 and 10 years dividend increases have the pattern of 13.9% and 20.4% per year. The most recent dividend increase was for just 4.3% in 2014. The current dividend yield is 1.88% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 1.65%.
With low dividend yield you generally get low Dividend Payout Ratios. DPRs were low under 30% for EPS and under 20% for cash flow in the past. The 5 year median DPR are fine at 33% for EPS and 22% for CFPS. However, 2013 was not a good year this company and the DPR for 2013 was 383% for EPS and 69% for CFPS. But, one bad year change the nature of any particular investment.
The last few years have not been good for this company. The 5 year total return is just 0.39% per year with a capital loss of 1.24% per year and dividends at 1.62% per year. The 10 year total return is better 12.05% per year with 10.13% per year from capital gains and 1.93% per year from dividends. My total return is a 26.65% per year with 24.42% from capital gains and 2.23% from Dividends.
Outstanding shares have not changed over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares grow because and Stock Options and declined because of Buy Backs. Revenue has not grown much over the past 5 years, but the 10 years growth is quite good. The 5year running averages for the last 5 years is a bit better than the 5 year growth.
Last year was a bad year for EPS so the 5 and 10 years growth is down. However, if you look at the 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years, growth is good. Last year was not a good year for cash flow either, so the 5 and 10 year growth is not good. However, if you look at the 5 year running averages, growth is good.
Revenue per Share is up by 2% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, the growth is at 3% and 7.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect revenues for 2014 to slightly below those of 2013. For the 1st quarter, the 12 month revenue is down by 2.3% compared to 2013 revenues.
Earnings per Share are down by 35% and 8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, if you look at 5 year running averages growth, the growth is at 12% and 15% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect 2014 EPS to be much better than for 2015. The 12 month EPS to the end of the first quarter over 2013 is up by 112%.
Last year was not a good year for cash flow and cash flow is down by 15% per year over the past 5 years and only up by 3.3% per year over the past 10 years. Here again, if you look at 5 year running averages, the 5 and 10 year growth is quite good at 14.5% and 16.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect that the 2014 will be a better year for cash flow and the CFPS over the 12 months ending at the end of the first quarter compared to the 12 months ending in December 2013, is up by 57%.
The Return on Equity was low in 2013 at just 1.8%. However, ROE has been higher than 10% each year over the past 10 years except for 2013. The 5 year median ROE is at 20.5%. The ROE on comprehensive income was a bit better at 3.2%. Its 5 year median ROE is at 17.6%.
The current Liquidity Ratio for 2013 was low at 0.81. This ratio has always been low. The company uses the cash flow to pay for current liabilities and if you add in cash flow after dividends, the Liquidity Ratio becomes better, but still low at 0.91. Adding back in the current portion of long term debt ratio is 0.95 and with cash flow after dividends, ratio is 1.06.
The Debt Ratio is also low, but assets cover liabilities as ratio is 1.20. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are high for an industrial stock at 6.01 and 5.01, respectively. These are also higher than the 10 year median Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios which are at 4.75 and 3.78.
If you hold any stock for a long time, and I have had this stock for 16 years, the company will go through some tough times and/or reorganizations. This stock is no different. I expect that it will recover from its current rough time but it is hard to say exactly when. In the meantime, because I have held this stock for some 16 years, I am earning a return of 28% yield on my original stock purchase. See my spreadsheet at snc.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, May 13, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
SNC-Lavalin are involved with engineering and construction work around the world, this includes infrastructure and Buildings; infrastructure and construction; power (nuclear, thermal, hydro etc.); chemicals and petroleum; environmental projects; mining and metallurgy projects. They have offices and Canada and around the world, from Algeria to Vietnam, including Australia, Europe, Russia, Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, USA. Its web site is here SNC-Lavalin.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, May 9, 2014
Thomson Reuters Corp. 2
I own this stock of Thomson Reuters Corp. (TSX-TRI, NYSE-TRI). I bought this stock in 1985. I am following it because I own it. This certainly has not been a spectacular investment. The company I bought was Thomson Corp. It has had its ups and downs. I have had it for some 29 years and my return is 7.22% per year with 3.59% from dividends and 3.63% from capital gains.
When I look at insider trading, I find $2.4M of insider selling and $4M of insider buying with net buying at $1.6M. Recent buying seemed to be in March of this year at just over $38.00.
Not only do insiders have stock options but they have other stock options type vehicles like Deferred Share Units and Restricted Share Units. The Thomson family owns shares in this company via The Woodbridge Company Limited which owns shares in Thomson Reuters valued at around $18B.
There is also some other insider ownership. The CEO owns shares worth around $8.7M and the CFO owns shares worth around $1.9M and an officer owns shares worth around $2.3M. All the insider buying was by Directors and the selling was by officers.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 26.72, 31.21and 35.69. These are quite high P/E Ratios and are higher than the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios which are at 20.87, 22.99 and 25.10.
The problem is that EPS has been weak over the past few years, but stock prices did not fall as much as earnings. The current P/E Ratio is 24.92 based on a stock price of $38.29 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.54 CDN (or $1.40 US$). This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $27.06. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.28, 1.69 and 1.53. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of $38.29. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share is 1.69. The current P/B Ratio is 1.81 based on a stock price of $38.29 and a Book Value per Share of $21.18 CDN$. The current P/B Ratio is higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio by 7%. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
If you use CND$ values, the current dividend yield is 3.78% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 3.77% a value some 0.3% lower. This historical average dividend yield is 3.22% and this is some 18% below the current dividend yield. These stock price tests suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
However, if you historical median dividend yield, it is just 2.79% a value some 36% lower than the current dividend yield is 3.72%. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.
The figures are slightly different using US$ values, but the results are the same. Using US$ values the current dividend yield is 3.72% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 3.49% a value some 6.6% lower. This historical average dividend yield is 3.33% and this is some 12% below the current dividend yield. These stock price tests suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
However, if you historical median dividend yield, it is just 2.83% a value some 31% lower than the current dividend yield is 3.72%. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations they are all over the place with Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform Recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $37.70. This implies a total return of 2.24% with 3.78% from dividends and a capital loss of 1.54%. I think that the consensus stock price is out of whack with the recommendations as there are a lot of Hold recommendations for this stock.
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal by Ben Fox Rubin talks about this company's swing to profit with the first quarter of 2014. A recent article in The Wall Street Transcript talks about a collaboration of the National Research Foundation of Korea and Thomson Reuters. The news site of The Street talks about why they rate this company a Hold. In January of 2013, the The Passive Income Earner did a review of this stock.
The stock price testing I did says that the stock is cheap to reasonable. I know that this company is having a current hard time, but I invest for the long term and so I will be holding on to my shares in this company. See my spreadsheet at tri.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, May 08, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Thomson Reuters Corp is the leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. The company delivers this must-have insight to the financial, legal, tax and accounting, healthcare and science and media markets, powered by the world's most trusted news organization. They derive the majority of their revenues from selling electronic content and services to professionals, primarily on a subscription basis. Its web site is here Thomson Reuters.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find $2.4M of insider selling and $4M of insider buying with net buying at $1.6M. Recent buying seemed to be in March of this year at just over $38.00.
Not only do insiders have stock options but they have other stock options type vehicles like Deferred Share Units and Restricted Share Units. The Thomson family owns shares in this company via The Woodbridge Company Limited which owns shares in Thomson Reuters valued at around $18B.
There is also some other insider ownership. The CEO owns shares worth around $8.7M and the CFO owns shares worth around $1.9M and an officer owns shares worth around $2.3M. All the insider buying was by Directors and the selling was by officers.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 26.72, 31.21and 35.69. These are quite high P/E Ratios and are higher than the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios which are at 20.87, 22.99 and 25.10.
The problem is that EPS has been weak over the past few years, but stock prices did not fall as much as earnings. The current P/E Ratio is 24.92 based on a stock price of $38.29 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.54 CDN (or $1.40 US$). This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $27.06. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.28, 1.69 and 1.53. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of $38.29. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share is 1.69. The current P/B Ratio is 1.81 based on a stock price of $38.29 and a Book Value per Share of $21.18 CDN$. The current P/B Ratio is higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio by 7%. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
If you use CND$ values, the current dividend yield is 3.78% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 3.77% a value some 0.3% lower. This historical average dividend yield is 3.22% and this is some 18% below the current dividend yield. These stock price tests suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
However, if you historical median dividend yield, it is just 2.79% a value some 36% lower than the current dividend yield is 3.72%. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.
The figures are slightly different using US$ values, but the results are the same. Using US$ values the current dividend yield is 3.72% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 3.49% a value some 6.6% lower. This historical average dividend yield is 3.33% and this is some 12% below the current dividend yield. These stock price tests suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
However, if you historical median dividend yield, it is just 2.83% a value some 31% lower than the current dividend yield is 3.72%. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations they are all over the place with Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform Recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $37.70. This implies a total return of 2.24% with 3.78% from dividends and a capital loss of 1.54%. I think that the consensus stock price is out of whack with the recommendations as there are a lot of Hold recommendations for this stock.
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal by Ben Fox Rubin talks about this company's swing to profit with the first quarter of 2014. A recent article in The Wall Street Transcript talks about a collaboration of the National Research Foundation of Korea and Thomson Reuters. The news site of The Street talks about why they rate this company a Hold. In January of 2013, the The Passive Income Earner did a review of this stock.
The stock price testing I did says that the stock is cheap to reasonable. I know that this company is having a current hard time, but I invest for the long term and so I will be holding on to my shares in this company. See my spreadsheet at tri.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, May 08, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Thomson Reuters Corp is the leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. The company delivers this must-have insight to the financial, legal, tax and accounting, healthcare and science and media markets, powered by the world's most trusted news organization. They derive the majority of their revenues from selling electronic content and services to professionals, primarily on a subscription basis. Its web site is here Thomson Reuters.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, May 8, 2014
Thomson Reuters Corp.
I own this stock of Thomson Reuters Corp. (TSX-TRI, NYSE-TRI). I bought this stock in 1985. I am following it because I own it. This certainly has not been a spectacular investment. The company I bought was Thomson Corp. It has had its ups and downs. I have had it for some 29 years and my return is 7.22% per year with 3.59% from dividends and 3.63% from capital gains.
One problem with this stock is that dividends are paid in US$. The problem with this is that every dividend is different as this stock is in my Canadian Trading Account and I get paid in CDN$. Even though dividends have gone up each year, my dividends have fluctuated. For example in 2008 my dividends went up 36.6% and then in 2009 they went down 11.4%. In US$, dividends went up by 10.2% in 2008 and then up 3.7% in 2009.
This stock has been having problems since 2008 and the 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio is 107%. The DPR for 2013 was at 825%. DPR for cash flow is better with the 5 year DPR at 35.7%. The DPR for CFPS for 2013 was at 53%. For 2014, the DPR for EPS is expected to be at 94% and for CFPS is expected to be 43%.
The total return over the past 5 and 10 years has been low. The 5 and 10 year total return is at 6.02% and 1.91% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 2.89% and 3.58% per year over these periods. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains over the past 5 years is 2.44% and the capital loss over the past 10 years is at 0.98% per year.
The total return over the past 10 years in US$ is similar with the 5 and 10 year total return at 5.69% and 3.29% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 3.77% and 3.13% per year over these periods. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains over the past 5 years is 1.96% and the capital loss over the past 10 years is at 0.16% per year.
The outstanding shares are the same over the past 5 years and are up by 2.3% per year over the past 10 years. Shares have increased due to stock options, DRIP and Share Issues. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs.
Revenues growth is mediocre, earnings growth is non-existent and there is not much in the way of cash flow growth. Growth is better in US$ terms than in CDN$ terms, but that does not change the above statement. The year 2013 was not a good year for this company.
Revenue is up by 1.6% and 5.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ terms. The 5 year running average is better with growth at 9.2% and 6.6%. The Revenue per Share growth is at 1.8% and 3.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ terms. The 5 year running averages have growth of 5.2% and 3.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running averages are better because growth was negative over the past 2 years.
Earnings per Share is down by 38.4% and 19.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ terms. The 5 year running averages is better and here EPS is down by 24.7% and 6.9% over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ Terms. Earnings are down 4 of the past 5 years.
Cash Flow per share is down by 4.3% and 0.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ Terms. If you look at 5 year running averages, CFPS is up by 0.7% and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ terms. CFPS is down in 3 of the past 5 years, including 2013.
Needless to say, but the Return on Equity was low in 2013 at 1.1%. The 5 year median ROE is just 4.7%. ROE is only over 10% in 3 of the past 10 years. The ROE on comprehensive income is slightly better at 2.4% for 2013. (For ratios, because they are relative, it does not matter if you calculate them in US$ or CDN$ terms.)
The Liquidity Ratio is low at 0.82%. That means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. This ratio has always been low. If you add in cash flow after dividends, this ratio becomes 1.05. The company counts on cash flow to cover current liabilities.
The Debt Ratio is very good and has always been so. The Debt Ratio for 2013 is 2.05. The 5 year median Debt Ratio is 2.16. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.96 and 0.96.
The problem with owning stock in any one company for a very long time is that all companies are sure to go through at least one reorganization. Even though this company is currently a drag on my portfolio, if you buy big blue chip stocks, you are unlikely to lose a lot of money. As I had said earlier my total return on this stock has been at 7.2% per year. This is not great, but it is not a disaster either. The money that I have received in dividends at 3.6% a year, I have already received. See my spreadsheet at tri.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, April 9, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Thomson Reuters Corp is the leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. The company delivers this must-have insight to the financial, legal, tax and accounting, healthcare and science and media markets, powered by the world's most trusted news organization. They derive the majority of their revenues from selling electronic content and services to professionals, primarily on a subscription basis. Its web site is here Thomson Reuters.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
One problem with this stock is that dividends are paid in US$. The problem with this is that every dividend is different as this stock is in my Canadian Trading Account and I get paid in CDN$. Even though dividends have gone up each year, my dividends have fluctuated. For example in 2008 my dividends went up 36.6% and then in 2009 they went down 11.4%. In US$, dividends went up by 10.2% in 2008 and then up 3.7% in 2009.
This stock has been having problems since 2008 and the 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio is 107%. The DPR for 2013 was at 825%. DPR for cash flow is better with the 5 year DPR at 35.7%. The DPR for CFPS for 2013 was at 53%. For 2014, the DPR for EPS is expected to be at 94% and for CFPS is expected to be 43%.
The total return over the past 5 and 10 years has been low. The 5 and 10 year total return is at 6.02% and 1.91% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 2.89% and 3.58% per year over these periods. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains over the past 5 years is 2.44% and the capital loss over the past 10 years is at 0.98% per year.
The total return over the past 10 years in US$ is similar with the 5 and 10 year total return at 5.69% and 3.29% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 3.77% and 3.13% per year over these periods. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains over the past 5 years is 1.96% and the capital loss over the past 10 years is at 0.16% per year.
The outstanding shares are the same over the past 5 years and are up by 2.3% per year over the past 10 years. Shares have increased due to stock options, DRIP and Share Issues. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs.
Revenues growth is mediocre, earnings growth is non-existent and there is not much in the way of cash flow growth. Growth is better in US$ terms than in CDN$ terms, but that does not change the above statement. The year 2013 was not a good year for this company.
Revenue is up by 1.6% and 5.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ terms. The 5 year running average is better with growth at 9.2% and 6.6%. The Revenue per Share growth is at 1.8% and 3.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ terms. The 5 year running averages have growth of 5.2% and 3.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running averages are better because growth was negative over the past 2 years.
Earnings per Share is down by 38.4% and 19.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ terms. The 5 year running averages is better and here EPS is down by 24.7% and 6.9% over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ Terms. Earnings are down 4 of the past 5 years.
Cash Flow per share is down by 4.3% and 0.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ Terms. If you look at 5 year running averages, CFPS is up by 0.7% and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ terms. CFPS is down in 3 of the past 5 years, including 2013.
Needless to say, but the Return on Equity was low in 2013 at 1.1%. The 5 year median ROE is just 4.7%. ROE is only over 10% in 3 of the past 10 years. The ROE on comprehensive income is slightly better at 2.4% for 2013. (For ratios, because they are relative, it does not matter if you calculate them in US$ or CDN$ terms.)
The Liquidity Ratio is low at 0.82%. That means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. This ratio has always been low. If you add in cash flow after dividends, this ratio becomes 1.05. The company counts on cash flow to cover current liabilities.
The Debt Ratio is very good and has always been so. The Debt Ratio for 2013 is 2.05. The 5 year median Debt Ratio is 2.16. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.96 and 0.96.
The problem with owning stock in any one company for a very long time is that all companies are sure to go through at least one reorganization. Even though this company is currently a drag on my portfolio, if you buy big blue chip stocks, you are unlikely to lose a lot of money. As I had said earlier my total return on this stock has been at 7.2% per year. This is not great, but it is not a disaster either. The money that I have received in dividends at 3.6% a year, I have already received. See my spreadsheet at tri.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, April 9, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Thomson Reuters Corp is the leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. The company delivers this must-have insight to the financial, legal, tax and accounting, healthcare and science and media markets, powered by the world's most trusted news organization. They derive the majority of their revenues from selling electronic content and services to professionals, primarily on a subscription basis. Its web site is here Thomson Reuters.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Canadian Natural Resources 2
On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks to buy continue...
I own this stock of Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ). I started to follow this stock in 2008 because it was on the dividend growth lists that I followed. I first bought CNQ in September 2012 because the dividend yield was relatively high. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields were 0.73% and 0.75%. I got it with a yield of 1.32%. In April 2013 I bought more shares of this stock because the yield was at 1.54%.
When I look at insider trading I find 87.8M of insider selling and 5.7M of insider buying. There was only officer buying, but selling was by CEO, CFO, officers and directors. Net selling was $82.1M. In 2013 outstanding shares were increased by 5.4M with a book value of $130M. This number of shares was worth $194M at the end of 2013 and was equal to one half of one percent of the outstanding shares.
There is lots of insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $79.5M, CFO having shares worth $5.4M and the Chairman having shares worth $819.5M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.82, 19.28 and 23.53. The current P/E Ratio is 13.35 based on a stock price of $44.98 and 2014 EPS estimate of $3.37. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $42.39. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.18 and 1.50. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.06. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.95 and the current P/B Ratio at 1.90 with only 3% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The historical dividend yield high is 1.33% and the current dividend yield at 2.00% is some 50% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap. The current dividend is also some 128% higher than the 5 year median dividend yield of 0.88%.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The current consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $49.00. This implies a total return of 10.94% with 2% from dividends and 8.94% from capital gains.
At the end of 2013 John Heinzl in the Globe and Mail talked about 5 stocks to buy and hold. This stock was one that he mentioned. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal by Judy McKinnon said that CNQ is a Canadian stock to watch because of a new oil well in Cote d'Ivoire in West Africa.
The company does have some problems. The company has recently been charged because of a leak at Horizon site near Fort McMurray according to Global News. There is also the blowout at Cold Lake, Alberta as documented by Pembina Institute.
My all measures, this stock's price is reasonable. By some measures, it is still cheap. See my spreadsheet at cnq.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, May 6, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is a senior oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. The Company's operations are focused in Western Canada, in the U.K. sector of the North Sea and in offshore West Africa. Its web site is here Canadian Natural Resources.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ). I started to follow this stock in 2008 because it was on the dividend growth lists that I followed. I first bought CNQ in September 2012 because the dividend yield was relatively high. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields were 0.73% and 0.75%. I got it with a yield of 1.32%. In April 2013 I bought more shares of this stock because the yield was at 1.54%.
When I look at insider trading I find 87.8M of insider selling and 5.7M of insider buying. There was only officer buying, but selling was by CEO, CFO, officers and directors. Net selling was $82.1M. In 2013 outstanding shares were increased by 5.4M with a book value of $130M. This number of shares was worth $194M at the end of 2013 and was equal to one half of one percent of the outstanding shares.
There is lots of insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $79.5M, CFO having shares worth $5.4M and the Chairman having shares worth $819.5M.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.82, 19.28 and 23.53. The current P/E Ratio is 13.35 based on a stock price of $44.98 and 2014 EPS estimate of $3.37. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $42.39. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.18 and 1.50. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.06. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.95 and the current P/B Ratio at 1.90 with only 3% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The historical dividend yield high is 1.33% and the current dividend yield at 2.00% is some 50% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap. The current dividend is also some 128% higher than the 5 year median dividend yield of 0.88%.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The current consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $49.00. This implies a total return of 10.94% with 2% from dividends and 8.94% from capital gains.
At the end of 2013 John Heinzl in the Globe and Mail talked about 5 stocks to buy and hold. This stock was one that he mentioned. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal by Judy McKinnon said that CNQ is a Canadian stock to watch because of a new oil well in Cote d'Ivoire in West Africa.
The company does have some problems. The company has recently been charged because of a leak at Horizon site near Fort McMurray according to Global News. There is also the blowout at Cold Lake, Alberta as documented by Pembina Institute.
My all measures, this stock's price is reasonable. By some measures, it is still cheap. See my spreadsheet at cnq.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, May 6, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is a senior oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. The Company's operations are focused in Western Canada, in the U.K. sector of the North Sea and in offshore West Africa. Its web site is here Canadian Natural Resources.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
Canadian Natural Resources
I own this stock of Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ). I started to follow this stock in 2008 because it was on the dividend growth lists that I followed. I first bought CNQ in September 2012 because the dividend yield was relatively high. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields were 0.73% and 0.75%. I got it with a yield of 1.32%. In April 2013 I bought more shares of this stock because the yield was at 1.54%.
This stock has been on dividend growth lists for a long time. I never bought this stock before because the yield was very low with a median around 0.7%. The reason why I track this stock is because of the good growth in dividends. The 5 and 10 year growth in dividend is at 20% and 21% per year.
Recently the company has also been ramming up the dividends. The total dividend increase for 2014 so far has been 82%. The company thinks that it is strong enough to do this. Both the Dividend Payout Ratios for earnings and cash flow are increasing. However, the DPR for EPS for 2013 was 23% and for CFPS was 7.2%. The DPR for EPS and CFPS is expected to be 26% and 9.7%. These are very low payout ratios.
The dividend yield currently at 2.01% is higher than it has ever been. The 5 year median dividend yield is just 0.88% and it used to be lower.
I have not invested much in this stock, as I do not have much free money to invest. My return has been great with a total return of 25.99% per year with 1.51% from dividends and 24.48% from capital gains. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock was ok with total return at 4.58% and 14.59% per year over these periods. The portion of this return attributable to dividends was 1.15% and 1.21% and the portion of this return attributable to capital gains is 3.43% and 13.38% over these periods.
The outstanding shares have not grown over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues. They have decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow is better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years. Part of this is because exactly 5 years ago was a good year. That is why the 5 year running averages over the past 5 years is better than the 5 year growth.
Revenues have grown at 2.1% and 11.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 2% and 11% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share has grown at the rate of 4.7% and 14.3% per year if you use 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenues, earnings and cash flow declined in 2009 and has mostly been growing since then.
Net Income is down by 14.6% per year over the past 5 years and it is up by 4.9% per year over the past 10 years. Earnings per Share are down by 14.7% over the past 5 years but it is up by 5.1% per year over the past 10 years. Using the 5 year running averages, EPS is down by 4.6% per year over the past 5 years and it is up by 10% per year over the past 10 years.
Cash Flow is up by 0.8% and 8.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 0.7% and 8.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you use 5 year running averages, CFPS is up by 3.2% and 11.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Over the past 10 years, the Return on Equity has been below 10% in 4 years, and most of those years are recent. The ROE for 2013 was 8.8% and the 5 year median ROE was 8.1%. The ROE on comprehensive income is similar with an ROE for 2013 of 8.7% and a 5 year median at 7.9%.
The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is at 0.42. Even adding in the current portion of the long term debt, the Liquidity Ratio is still very low at 0.63. This means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. If you add in cash flow after dividends the ratio is at 1.70. This is a very good one. This company depends on cash flow to pay for current liabilities.
The Debt Ratio is very good and the ratio for 2013 is 1.99. The 5 year median ratio is 1.97. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.01 and 1.01.
I have tracked this stock and liked it for some time. I just thought that the dividend yield was too low. When I saw that the dividend yield has jumped up, I just went for it. It sometimes pays to take advance of unique situations. However, there can be a big risk in doing this. These unique situations generally occur because a company is having some current problem. See my spreadsheet at cnq.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, May 7, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is a senior oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. The Company's operations are focused in Western Canada, in the U.K. sector of the North Sea and in offshore West Africa. Its web site is here Canadian Natural Resources.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This stock has been on dividend growth lists for a long time. I never bought this stock before because the yield was very low with a median around 0.7%. The reason why I track this stock is because of the good growth in dividends. The 5 and 10 year growth in dividend is at 20% and 21% per year.
Recently the company has also been ramming up the dividends. The total dividend increase for 2014 so far has been 82%. The company thinks that it is strong enough to do this. Both the Dividend Payout Ratios for earnings and cash flow are increasing. However, the DPR for EPS for 2013 was 23% and for CFPS was 7.2%. The DPR for EPS and CFPS is expected to be 26% and 9.7%. These are very low payout ratios.
The dividend yield currently at 2.01% is higher than it has ever been. The 5 year median dividend yield is just 0.88% and it used to be lower.
I have not invested much in this stock, as I do not have much free money to invest. My return has been great with a total return of 25.99% per year with 1.51% from dividends and 24.48% from capital gains. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock was ok with total return at 4.58% and 14.59% per year over these periods. The portion of this return attributable to dividends was 1.15% and 1.21% and the portion of this return attributable to capital gains is 3.43% and 13.38% over these periods.
The outstanding shares have not grown over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues. They have decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow is better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years. Part of this is because exactly 5 years ago was a good year. That is why the 5 year running averages over the past 5 years is better than the 5 year growth.
Revenues have grown at 2.1% and 11.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 2% and 11% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share has grown at the rate of 4.7% and 14.3% per year if you use 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenues, earnings and cash flow declined in 2009 and has mostly been growing since then.
Net Income is down by 14.6% per year over the past 5 years and it is up by 4.9% per year over the past 10 years. Earnings per Share are down by 14.7% over the past 5 years but it is up by 5.1% per year over the past 10 years. Using the 5 year running averages, EPS is down by 4.6% per year over the past 5 years and it is up by 10% per year over the past 10 years.
Cash Flow is up by 0.8% and 8.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 0.7% and 8.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you use 5 year running averages, CFPS is up by 3.2% and 11.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Over the past 10 years, the Return on Equity has been below 10% in 4 years, and most of those years are recent. The ROE for 2013 was 8.8% and the 5 year median ROE was 8.1%. The ROE on comprehensive income is similar with an ROE for 2013 of 8.7% and a 5 year median at 7.9%.
The Liquidity Ratio for 2014 is at 0.42. Even adding in the current portion of the long term debt, the Liquidity Ratio is still very low at 0.63. This means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. If you add in cash flow after dividends the ratio is at 1.70. This is a very good one. This company depends on cash flow to pay for current liabilities.
The Debt Ratio is very good and the ratio for 2013 is 1.99. The 5 year median ratio is 1.97. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.01 and 1.01.
I have tracked this stock and liked it for some time. I just thought that the dividend yield was too low. When I saw that the dividend yield has jumped up, I just went for it. It sometimes pays to take advance of unique situations. However, there can be a big risk in doing this. These unique situations generally occur because a company is having some current problem. See my spreadsheet at cnq.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, May 7, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is a senior oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. The Company's operations are focused in Western Canada, in the U.K. sector of the North Sea and in offshore West Africa. Its web site is here Canadian Natural Resources.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
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