On my other blog I am today talking about some good stock from my portfolio continue...
I own this stock of Pembina Pipelines Corp. (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA). In Dec 2001 I thought it would be a good time to purchase this stock as the market was relatively low. Pipeline stocks are conservative and the return on this one was good at 9.7%. When I purchases this stock it was an Income Trust company.
As an income trust this company had increased their dividend, but not consistently. When it changed to a corporation, it basically kept its dividend level for three years. Since then there has been modest dividend increases. The most recent one was in 2013 and the increase was at 3.7%.
This company has the dividend growth characteristic of good dividends and low dividend growth. The current dividend is at 3.91%. The 5 year median dividend yield was higher at 5.98%. However, dividend yields tended to be higher on income trust companies than corporations. I would expect that dividends to be around 4% going forward.
This company still has not got the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS under control. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is at 148%. The DPR for EPS for 2013 is at 146% and it is expected to be around 132% for 2014. The DPR for CFPS is better with the one for 2013 at 71%. The DPR for CFPS is expected to be around 75% in 2014.
I have done very well in this stock with a total return of 19.54% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 11.98% per year and to dividend is at 7.56% per year. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is at 26.34% and 18.81% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends over these periods is at 6.70% and 6.67% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 19.64% and 12.15% per year over these periods.
However, I think that the easy money has been made on this stock. Although I expect growth in the future, I expect that it will not be a good as it was in the past. When companies went from income trusts to corporations, the stock prices generally climbed because dividend yields were expected to be lower for corporations. Dividend yields going forward will also not be a good as in the past.
The outstanding shares have increased by 18.5% and 12.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Issues, Stock Options, DRIP and Debenture Conversion. Because shares have increased, the "per Share" values become quite important. Revenues, Net Income and Cash Flow have all increased much more than Revenue per Share, EPS and CFPS.
Revenues have increased by 49.4% and 35.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has increased by 26.1% and 20.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Net Income has increased by 6.8% and 16.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However EPS is down by 1.2% and up by 6 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages for EPS, EPS is up by 4.2% and 6.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is because exactly 5 years ago was a good year for earnings.
Cash Flow is up by 28.3% and 22.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 8.3% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages for CFPS, the increase is not quite so good coming in at 6.8% and 5.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity has been quite low over the last couple of years with ROE at just 4.4% in 2013. However, the 5 year median ROE is much better at 14.4%. The ROE for comprehensive income is better in 2013 than for net income and it at 7.1%. This is still low, but it is better than 4.4%.
The Liquidity Ratios are not great. For 2013 the ratio is 0.84. This means that current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. However, if you consider cash flow the ratio is just 1.01. This means that current assets just cover current liabilities. Utilities generally count on cash flow to cover current liabilities.
The Debt Ratio is very good at 2.30. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are quite good at 1.77 and 0.77.
This has been a good stock for me. I would like it to get its Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS at a better place. Most analysts reviewing this still look at Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) to determine if the payout in dividends are reasonable or not. I expect to continue to do well with this stock, but I am also keeping an eye on it. See my spreadsheet at ppl.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, May 1, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Pembina transports crude oil and natural gas liquids produced in Western Canada. It owns and operates oil sands pipelines and has a growing presence in midstream and natural gas services sectors. Pembina holds a 50% interest in the Fort Saskatchewan Ethylene Storage Facility. Its web site is here Pembina Pipelines.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Manulife Financial Corp. 2
I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). In May 2005, I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met my criteria. I bought some more stock in October 2005, in April 2009 and in April 2013.
When I look at insider trading, I find $6.1M of insider selling and $6.0M of net insider selling. So there is a bit of insider buying. Insiders not only have stock options, but other stock options type vehicles called Rights Performance Share Units, Rights Restricted Share Units, Deferred Share Units, and Rights Deferred Share Units.
There is little insider ownership, but the CEO does have shares worth around $2.6M. Outstanding shares were increased by 1M shares in 2013 with a book value of $17M and this number of share being worth around $21M at the end of 2013. This increase in shares is 0.05% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 11.22, 13.74 and 15.86. These are slightly lower than the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 12.45 based on a stock price of $20.66 and 2014 EPS estimate $1.66. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $22.85. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.95, 1.12 and 1.32. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.92. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.51 and the current P/B Ratio is 1.48 a value some 2% lower. This P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $20.66 and a BVPS of $13.98. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.54% and the current dividend yield at 2.52% is some 29% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is expensive. On a historical basis the average dividend yield is 3.25% and the median dividend yield is 2.14%.
The problem with dividend yield testing on the stock price is that when this stock got into trouble in 2008, the dividend yield got quite high. This is why the 5 year median dividend yield is at 3.54% and the average is 3.25, but there is a historical median dividend yield at a lower 2.14%. Using the historical median dividend yield, the stock price is low, almost cheap.
The analysts' recommendations are all Buy recommendations. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.70. This implies a total return of $17.23% with 2.52% from dividend and 14.71% from capital gains. Most analysts see this stock as one that is recovering. This stock hit a high of $44.19 in 2007 and it is only around half this amount still.
Lorne Steinberg, President & Portfolio Manager, Lorne Steinberg Wealth Management talks on BBN on his stock picks and one is Manulife. He also thinks dividends are posed to increase. David Pett of the Financial Post says that MFC should lead the red hot rise in Canadian life insurance stocks.
I still believe in this stock and I do expect it to recover. I still think that it will be a long haul as we still do not know when interest rates will get to a more normal level. See my spreadsheet at mfc.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, April 28, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. Its web site is here Manulife.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find $6.1M of insider selling and $6.0M of net insider selling. So there is a bit of insider buying. Insiders not only have stock options, but other stock options type vehicles called Rights Performance Share Units, Rights Restricted Share Units, Deferred Share Units, and Rights Deferred Share Units.
There is little insider ownership, but the CEO does have shares worth around $2.6M. Outstanding shares were increased by 1M shares in 2013 with a book value of $17M and this number of share being worth around $21M at the end of 2013. This increase in shares is 0.05% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 11.22, 13.74 and 15.86. These are slightly lower than the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 12.45 based on a stock price of $20.66 and 2014 EPS estimate $1.66. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $22.85. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.95, 1.12 and 1.32. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.92. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.51 and the current P/B Ratio is 1.48 a value some 2% lower. This P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $20.66 and a BVPS of $13.98. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.54% and the current dividend yield at 2.52% is some 29% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is expensive. On a historical basis the average dividend yield is 3.25% and the median dividend yield is 2.14%.
The problem with dividend yield testing on the stock price is that when this stock got into trouble in 2008, the dividend yield got quite high. This is why the 5 year median dividend yield is at 3.54% and the average is 3.25, but there is a historical median dividend yield at a lower 2.14%. Using the historical median dividend yield, the stock price is low, almost cheap.
The analysts' recommendations are all Buy recommendations. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.70. This implies a total return of $17.23% with 2.52% from dividend and 14.71% from capital gains. Most analysts see this stock as one that is recovering. This stock hit a high of $44.19 in 2007 and it is only around half this amount still.
Lorne Steinberg, President & Portfolio Manager, Lorne Steinberg Wealth Management talks on BBN on his stock picks and one is Manulife. He also thinks dividends are posed to increase. David Pett of the Financial Post says that MFC should lead the red hot rise in Canadian life insurance stocks.
I still believe in this stock and I do expect it to recover. I still think that it will be a long haul as we still do not know when interest rates will get to a more normal level. See my spreadsheet at mfc.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, April 28, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. Its web site is here Manulife.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, April 28, 2014
Manulife Financial Corp.
On my other blog I am today talking about the Stock Price Targets continue...
I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). In May 2005, I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met my criteria. I bought some more stock in Oct 2005. I had some more money to spend and wanted to buy stock of dividend paying company I owned, for which I did not own too much. In April 2009, I was looking for something else to buy and Manulife was at a good price. In April 2013, I need to buy higher dividend stocks for my RRIF account. There was some money after RRSP sells, so I bought more MFC.
When this company ran into trouble in 2008, the new CEO decided to cut the dividends by 50% in 2009. Until that time this stock was considered a dividend growth company. Since the cut in 2009, the dividends have remained stable. However, some analysts believe that this company will start to raise the dividends in 2014 or in 2015.
When this company was a dividend growth company, the dividend yield was rather low at a median of 1.9% and with a median increase of around 21%. Since then the median dividend yield has been around 3.5% because of the drop in the stock's price.
The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS is at 95% and for CFPS is at 9.9%. The DPR for 2013 was at 32% for EPS and at 9.9% for CFPS. The current DPR for earnings is in line with what the DPR for EPS used to be before 2008.
My total return is quite lousy at a negative 0.26% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to dividends is 2.48% per year and the total return attributable to capital loss is at 2.74% per year.
The 5 and 10 year total return is at 3.96% per year and a negative 0.2% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 2.62% and 2.69% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains over the past 5 years is at 1.34% per year and the portion of this total return attributable to capital loss over the past 10 years is at 2.89% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 2.8% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options, DRIP and Share Issues. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs.
Revenue has grown but not the Revenue per Share. The Net Income and EPS, especially over the past 5 years appear to have grown, but if you look at 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years you get a very different story with no growth. For Cash Flow and Cash Flow per Share there is growth, especially for Cash Flow.
Revenue is up by 1.9% and 8.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is down by just under 1% and up by 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue has been fluctuating but not really growing lately. Analysts only expect some slight increases going forward.
EPS is up by 38% per year over the past 5 years, but over the past 5 year, the 5 year running averages for EPS is down by 20.15% per year. This is because earnings were very low 5 years ago. There is not so much discrepancy with 10 year EPS, but EPS is 0% for last 10 years, but on a 5 year running average EPS is down by 7% per year. The EPS have been recovering over the past few years.
Cash Flow is up by 8.6% and 18% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The CFPS is up by 5.7% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
In 2013 the Return on Equity is 10.9%. This is the first year since 2008 that the ROE has been at 10% or above. The ROE on comprehensive income is even better for 2013 at 17%. This is a good sign.
The Liquidity Ratio is of low importance on financial stocks; however, there seems no doubt that current assets will cover current liabilities. The Debt Ratio at 1.06 is rather normal for a financial stock. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are rather high at 17.69 and 16.69, but this is rather normal for a financial stock.
This life insurance company is recovering, but we still have the problem of very low interest rates. Many people believe that very low interest rates are going to be with us for a while longer. See my spreadsheet at mfc.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, April 29, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. Its web site is here Manulife.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). In May 2005, I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met my criteria. I bought some more stock in Oct 2005. I had some more money to spend and wanted to buy stock of dividend paying company I owned, for which I did not own too much. In April 2009, I was looking for something else to buy and Manulife was at a good price. In April 2013, I need to buy higher dividend stocks for my RRIF account. There was some money after RRSP sells, so I bought more MFC.
When this company ran into trouble in 2008, the new CEO decided to cut the dividends by 50% in 2009. Until that time this stock was considered a dividend growth company. Since the cut in 2009, the dividends have remained stable. However, some analysts believe that this company will start to raise the dividends in 2014 or in 2015.
When this company was a dividend growth company, the dividend yield was rather low at a median of 1.9% and with a median increase of around 21%. Since then the median dividend yield has been around 3.5% because of the drop in the stock's price.
The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS is at 95% and for CFPS is at 9.9%. The DPR for 2013 was at 32% for EPS and at 9.9% for CFPS. The current DPR for earnings is in line with what the DPR for EPS used to be before 2008.
My total return is quite lousy at a negative 0.26% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to dividends is 2.48% per year and the total return attributable to capital loss is at 2.74% per year.
The 5 and 10 year total return is at 3.96% per year and a negative 0.2% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 2.62% and 2.69% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains over the past 5 years is at 1.34% per year and the portion of this total return attributable to capital loss over the past 10 years is at 2.89% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 2.8% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options, DRIP and Share Issues. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs.
Revenue has grown but not the Revenue per Share. The Net Income and EPS, especially over the past 5 years appear to have grown, but if you look at 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years you get a very different story with no growth. For Cash Flow and Cash Flow per Share there is growth, especially for Cash Flow.
Revenue is up by 1.9% and 8.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is down by just under 1% and up by 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue has been fluctuating but not really growing lately. Analysts only expect some slight increases going forward.
EPS is up by 38% per year over the past 5 years, but over the past 5 year, the 5 year running averages for EPS is down by 20.15% per year. This is because earnings were very low 5 years ago. There is not so much discrepancy with 10 year EPS, but EPS is 0% for last 10 years, but on a 5 year running average EPS is down by 7% per year. The EPS have been recovering over the past few years.
Cash Flow is up by 8.6% and 18% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The CFPS is up by 5.7% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
In 2013 the Return on Equity is 10.9%. This is the first year since 2008 that the ROE has been at 10% or above. The ROE on comprehensive income is even better for 2013 at 17%. This is a good sign.
The Liquidity Ratio is of low importance on financial stocks; however, there seems no doubt that current assets will cover current liabilities. The Debt Ratio at 1.06 is rather normal for a financial stock. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are rather high at 17.69 and 16.69, but this is rather normal for a financial stock.
This life insurance company is recovering, but we still have the problem of very low interest rates. Many people believe that very low interest rates are going to be with us for a while longer. See my spreadsheet at mfc.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, April 29, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. Its web site is here Manulife.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, April 25, 2014
Russel Metals Inc. 2
On my other blog I am today talking about the Oil Sands and Coal continue...
I own this stock of Russel Metals Inc. (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth List. In 2007 I needed to reduce my holdings of Loblaws and buy something to help replace the dividends I had been earning. With Russel Metals, both Mike and TD recommend buying at this time.
When I look at insider trading, I find $2.3M of insider selling and $1.1M of insider buying with net selling at $1.2M. There are not only stock options, but other option type vehicles called Rights Restricted Share and Rights Deferred Share Units. Insiders also have Convertible Debentures with good interest rates (i.e. 7.75%).
Outstanding shares were increased by 737,000 for stock options in 2013 with a book value of $21.5M. This number of shares was worth some $23.1M at the end of 2013 and is some 1.2% of the outstanding shares. This is rather a high number of shares for stock options as most companies increase shares for stock options at a rate less 1% and generally at one half of 1%.
There is some insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $3.5M, the CFO having shares worth around $2.3M and the Chairman having shares worth around $1.3M. There also seems to be a lot of stock options outstanding.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.80, 15.70 and 17.61. The current P/E Ratio is 15.89 based on a stock price of $30.66 and 2014 earnings estimates of $1.93. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable. Note that P/E Ratios are currently moving up on this stock as the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios are 9.22, 11.00 and 12.77.
I get a Graham Price of $24.64. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 0.93 and 1.08. The current P/GP ratio is 1.24. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share ratio is 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.19 which is a value some 26% higher. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is relatively high. The current P/B Ratio of 2.19 is based on a stock price of $30.66 and 2013 BVPS of $13.98.
I get a 5 year median Dividend Yield of 5.11. The current dividend yield at 4.57% is some 10% lower. The historical average dividend yield is 5.35% which is some 15% higher than the current dividend yield. The historical median dividend yield is 5.12% a value some 11% higher than the current dividend yield. This stock price testing says that the stock price is still reasonable, although it is in the high portion of the reasonable range.
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. There are equal numbers of Buy and Hold recommendations so the consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month price consensus is $31.30 which implies a total return of 7.31% with 2.74% from capital gains and 4.57% from dividends.
There some recent technical analysis on this stock at the site BannRonn. The newspaper the Western Star talks about the company's fourth quarter which had a profit drop.
My stock price testing says that the stock price is reasonable to high. I still think that I can make good money in this stock over the longer term, so I will continue to hold on to my shares. Although I must admit this stock is only a minor stock holding in my portfolio. See my spreadsheet at rus.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, April 24, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Russel Metals Inc. is one of the largest metals distribution and processing companies in North America. The Company primarily distributes steel products and conducts its distribution business in three principal business segments: metals service centers; energy tubular products and steel distributors. Its web site is here Russel Metals.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Russel Metals Inc. (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth List. In 2007 I needed to reduce my holdings of Loblaws and buy something to help replace the dividends I had been earning. With Russel Metals, both Mike and TD recommend buying at this time.
When I look at insider trading, I find $2.3M of insider selling and $1.1M of insider buying with net selling at $1.2M. There are not only stock options, but other option type vehicles called Rights Restricted Share and Rights Deferred Share Units. Insiders also have Convertible Debentures with good interest rates (i.e. 7.75%).
Outstanding shares were increased by 737,000 for stock options in 2013 with a book value of $21.5M. This number of shares was worth some $23.1M at the end of 2013 and is some 1.2% of the outstanding shares. This is rather a high number of shares for stock options as most companies increase shares for stock options at a rate less 1% and generally at one half of 1%.
There is some insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $3.5M, the CFO having shares worth around $2.3M and the Chairman having shares worth around $1.3M. There also seems to be a lot of stock options outstanding.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.80, 15.70 and 17.61. The current P/E Ratio is 15.89 based on a stock price of $30.66 and 2014 earnings estimates of $1.93. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable. Note that P/E Ratios are currently moving up on this stock as the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios are 9.22, 11.00 and 12.77.
I get a Graham Price of $24.64. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 0.93 and 1.08. The current P/GP ratio is 1.24. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share ratio is 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.19 which is a value some 26% higher. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is relatively high. The current P/B Ratio of 2.19 is based on a stock price of $30.66 and 2013 BVPS of $13.98.
I get a 5 year median Dividend Yield of 5.11. The current dividend yield at 4.57% is some 10% lower. The historical average dividend yield is 5.35% which is some 15% higher than the current dividend yield. The historical median dividend yield is 5.12% a value some 11% higher than the current dividend yield. This stock price testing says that the stock price is still reasonable, although it is in the high portion of the reasonable range.
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. There are equal numbers of Buy and Hold recommendations so the consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month price consensus is $31.30 which implies a total return of 7.31% with 2.74% from capital gains and 4.57% from dividends.
There some recent technical analysis on this stock at the site BannRonn. The newspaper the Western Star talks about the company's fourth quarter which had a profit drop.
My stock price testing says that the stock price is reasonable to high. I still think that I can make good money in this stock over the longer term, so I will continue to hold on to my shares. Although I must admit this stock is only a minor stock holding in my portfolio. See my spreadsheet at rus.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, April 24, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Russel Metals Inc. is one of the largest metals distribution and processing companies in North America. The Company primarily distributes steel products and conducts its distribution business in three principal business segments: metals service centers; energy tubular products and steel distributors. Its web site is here Russel Metals.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, April 24, 2014
Russel Metals Inc.
I own this stock of Russel Metals Inc. (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth List. In 2007 I needed to reduce my holdings of Loblaws and buy something to help replace the dividends I had been earning. With Russel Metals, both Mike and TD recommend buying at this time.
I have dividend information on this stock from 1990. Between 1993 and 1999 inclusive, this stock did not pay any dividends. It started to again pay dividends in 2000 and in 2003 it was rapidly increasing the dividends. In 2009 dividends were decreased by around 45% and then were level for 2010 and then in 2011 they again increased their dividends.
The most recent increase was in 2012 with a dividend increase of 16.7%. In 2013 dividends were again flat. Analysts do not expect any dividend increases for 2014 or 2015. The dividend growth over the last 5 and 10 years do not really tell you anything as dividends can vary. The dividend yield has generally been quite good with a 5 year median of 4.9% and a current dividend at 4.6%.
The 5 year Dividend Payout Ratios are 82% and 61% for EPS and CFPS. The DPR for 2013 were higher at 102% and 72% for EPS and CFPS. The DPR for 2014 is expected to be around 73% and 51% for EPS and CFPS.
I bought this stock first in 2007 and then some more in 2009 and 2011. My total return is 7.57% per year with 4.65% per year from dividend and 2.92% per year from capital gains. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is 17.26% and 13.87% per year with 11.58% and 7.06% per year from capital gains and 5.68% and 6.81% per year from dividends.
The outstanding shares increased by 0% and 3.5% over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares increased due to Stock Options and Bond Conversions and decreased due to buy backs. Revenues, earnings and cash flow have had nice growth over the past 10 years, but generally there has been no growth over the past 5 years.
For revenue, there was a big decline in 2009 and revenue has been increasing since then. However, revenues are not quite back to where they were in 2008. The 5 decrease in Revenues is at 1.1% per year and the 10 years increase in revenue is at 7.8% per year. The Revenue per Share is down by 1.5% per year over the past 5 years and up by 4.1% per year over the past 10 years.
Both earnings and cash flow are different than revenues. They both declined in 2009 and 2010. 2011 was a good year, but then both again declined in 2012 and 2013. Analysts expect 2014 and 2015 to be better. However, analysts had also expected 2013 to be better and it was not. This is not the first time that this company has had weak growth in earnings and cash flow. This happened in the early 1990's and again in the early 2000's.
Earnings are down by 18% per year over the past 5 years and up by 16% per year over the past 10 years. EPS is down by 17.8% per year over the past 5 years and up by 13.4% per year over the past 10 years.
Cash flow is down by 14% per year over the past 5 years and up by 11% per year over the past 10 years. CFPS is down by 15% per year over the past 5 years and up by 7.5% per year over the past 5 years.
The Return on Equity has been below 10% 3 times in the last 10 years. The ROE for 2013 is 9.4% and the 5 year median is also 9.4%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is better in 2013 at 13.8%. The 5 year median ROE on Comprehensive Income is 10.7%.
The current Liquidity Ratio is 3.50 and it has always been quite strong with a 5 year median of 3.50. The Debt Ratio is also very good at 1.94 with a 5 year median of 2.14. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine, but not great at 2.06 and 1.06, respectively.
I obviously paid too much for the shares I bought in 2007. However, later shares were at better prices, especially those I bought in 2009. Why you might want to own this stock is the good dividend yield which is currently at 4.6% and the dividend portion of the total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 5.7% and 6.8% per year. However, this is not a dividend growth stock as dividends can vary. The company also has a strong balance sheet. .See my spreadsheet at rus.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, April 25, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Russel Metals Inc. is one of the largest metals distribution and processing companies in North America. The Company primarily distributes steel products and conducts its distribution business in three principal business segments: metals service centers; energy tubular products and steel distributors. Its web site is here Russel Metals.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I have dividend information on this stock from 1990. Between 1993 and 1999 inclusive, this stock did not pay any dividends. It started to again pay dividends in 2000 and in 2003 it was rapidly increasing the dividends. In 2009 dividends were decreased by around 45% and then were level for 2010 and then in 2011 they again increased their dividends.
The most recent increase was in 2012 with a dividend increase of 16.7%. In 2013 dividends were again flat. Analysts do not expect any dividend increases for 2014 or 2015. The dividend growth over the last 5 and 10 years do not really tell you anything as dividends can vary. The dividend yield has generally been quite good with a 5 year median of 4.9% and a current dividend at 4.6%.
The 5 year Dividend Payout Ratios are 82% and 61% for EPS and CFPS. The DPR for 2013 were higher at 102% and 72% for EPS and CFPS. The DPR for 2014 is expected to be around 73% and 51% for EPS and CFPS.
I bought this stock first in 2007 and then some more in 2009 and 2011. My total return is 7.57% per year with 4.65% per year from dividend and 2.92% per year from capital gains. The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is 17.26% and 13.87% per year with 11.58% and 7.06% per year from capital gains and 5.68% and 6.81% per year from dividends.
The outstanding shares increased by 0% and 3.5% over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares increased due to Stock Options and Bond Conversions and decreased due to buy backs. Revenues, earnings and cash flow have had nice growth over the past 10 years, but generally there has been no growth over the past 5 years.
For revenue, there was a big decline in 2009 and revenue has been increasing since then. However, revenues are not quite back to where they were in 2008. The 5 decrease in Revenues is at 1.1% per year and the 10 years increase in revenue is at 7.8% per year. The Revenue per Share is down by 1.5% per year over the past 5 years and up by 4.1% per year over the past 10 years.
Both earnings and cash flow are different than revenues. They both declined in 2009 and 2010. 2011 was a good year, but then both again declined in 2012 and 2013. Analysts expect 2014 and 2015 to be better. However, analysts had also expected 2013 to be better and it was not. This is not the first time that this company has had weak growth in earnings and cash flow. This happened in the early 1990's and again in the early 2000's.
Earnings are down by 18% per year over the past 5 years and up by 16% per year over the past 10 years. EPS is down by 17.8% per year over the past 5 years and up by 13.4% per year over the past 10 years.
Cash flow is down by 14% per year over the past 5 years and up by 11% per year over the past 10 years. CFPS is down by 15% per year over the past 5 years and up by 7.5% per year over the past 5 years.
The Return on Equity has been below 10% 3 times in the last 10 years. The ROE for 2013 is 9.4% and the 5 year median is also 9.4%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is better in 2013 at 13.8%. The 5 year median ROE on Comprehensive Income is 10.7%.
The current Liquidity Ratio is 3.50 and it has always been quite strong with a 5 year median of 3.50. The Debt Ratio is also very good at 1.94 with a 5 year median of 2.14. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine, but not great at 2.06 and 1.06, respectively.
I obviously paid too much for the shares I bought in 2007. However, later shares were at better prices, especially those I bought in 2009. Why you might want to own this stock is the good dividend yield which is currently at 4.6% and the dividend portion of the total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 5.7% and 6.8% per year. However, this is not a dividend growth stock as dividends can vary. The company also has a strong balance sheet. .See my spreadsheet at rus.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, April 25, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Russel Metals Inc. is one of the largest metals distribution and processing companies in North America. The Company primarily distributes steel products and conducts its distribution business in three principal business segments: metals service centers; energy tubular products and steel distributors. Its web site is here Russel Metals.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
Barrick Gold Corp. 2
I own this stock of Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX). This is a big gold mining company that I have followed for years. It was on some dividend growth lists at different times and has been covered by the Investment Reporter. I bought some of this stock in April 2013 because its stock price had fallen hard. I believed the market over reacted. I just bought 100 shares as I am living off my portfolio and do not have much to invest.
When I look at insider trading, I find no insider selling and $8M of insider buying over the past year. This shows some confidence in the company. The is also some insider ownership where the CEO owns shares worth around $1.3M, an officer of the company owns shares worth around $7.4M and the Chairman owns shares worth around $39M.
There are stock options, but also other stock option type vehicles called Rights Performance Restricted Share Units, Rights Restricted Share Units and Rights Deferred Share Units. Last year outstanding shares were increased by 44,000 because of stock options and these options had a book value of $1M. This small number of shares shows up a 0.00% of the outstanding shares. In 2012, outstanding shares were increased by 685,000 shares for stock options that had a book value of $18M and were 0.07% of outstanding shares.
Since there was no profit over the last two years, I look at the 10 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios which are 12.83, 13.78 and 15.33. The current P/E Ratio is 16.54. This test would imply the stock price is high. I think that this test could be rather unreliable.
I get a Graham price of $17.97 based on the 2014 earnings estimate of $1.16 CDN (or $1.06 US$) and Book Value per Share of $12.36 CDN$. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratio are 0.99, 1.65 and 1.37. The current P/GP Ratio based on a stock price of $19.21 is 1.07. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.24 and the current P/B Ratio is only 69% of this value at 1.55. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is based on a BVPS of $12.36 and a stock price of $19.21. (Note that the BVPS fell some 43% in 2013.)
If you look at 5 year median dividend yield, it is 1.08% and the current dividend yield at 1.14% is some 6% higher so this stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable. The historical average dividend yield is at 1.10% and the current dividend yield at 4% higher suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
It is only when you look at Price/CFPS and Price/Sales Ratios (and Price/B Ratio above) that the stock price looks relatively cheap. The 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 11.66 and the current P/CF Ratio at 6.13 is some 47% lower. The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 4.36 and the current one of 1.93 a value some 56% lower. These tests are using CDN$ values. You get the basically the same results using US$ values. So on some relative levels the stock price is cheap.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations, they cover all types of Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell. Most of the recommendations are in the Hold category and the consensus recommendations would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $20.60. This implies a total return of 8.38% with 1.14% from dividends and 7.24% from capital gains. However, there is a big range in the 12 month stock price ranging from $12.70 to $28.00. This matches the analysts' recommendations which are also rather broad.
There are a number of articles about this company and Newmont Mining Corp merging. Who knows if this will happen? There is a recent article in Financial Post about the talks breaking down. A recent article in Mining.com talks about the company cutting compensation packages. At the end of last year, CTV News talked about Peter Munk retiring from the company.
On some relative levels the company is cheap, but it is also in trouble. I realize this stock maybe risky, but I bought it because it is interesting at the moment. I will not keep it for the long term. See my spreadsheet at abx.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Barrick Gold Corporation is a gold mining company with a portfolio of operating mines, and advanced exploration and development projects located across five continents. Its web site is here Barrick Gold.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find no insider selling and $8M of insider buying over the past year. This shows some confidence in the company. The is also some insider ownership where the CEO owns shares worth around $1.3M, an officer of the company owns shares worth around $7.4M and the Chairman owns shares worth around $39M.
There are stock options, but also other stock option type vehicles called Rights Performance Restricted Share Units, Rights Restricted Share Units and Rights Deferred Share Units. Last year outstanding shares were increased by 44,000 because of stock options and these options had a book value of $1M. This small number of shares shows up a 0.00% of the outstanding shares. In 2012, outstanding shares were increased by 685,000 shares for stock options that had a book value of $18M and were 0.07% of outstanding shares.
Since there was no profit over the last two years, I look at the 10 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios which are 12.83, 13.78 and 15.33. The current P/E Ratio is 16.54. This test would imply the stock price is high. I think that this test could be rather unreliable.
I get a Graham price of $17.97 based on the 2014 earnings estimate of $1.16 CDN (or $1.06 US$) and Book Value per Share of $12.36 CDN$. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratio are 0.99, 1.65 and 1.37. The current P/GP Ratio based on a stock price of $19.21 is 1.07. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.24 and the current P/B Ratio is only 69% of this value at 1.55. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is based on a BVPS of $12.36 and a stock price of $19.21. (Note that the BVPS fell some 43% in 2013.)
If you look at 5 year median dividend yield, it is 1.08% and the current dividend yield at 1.14% is some 6% higher so this stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable. The historical average dividend yield is at 1.10% and the current dividend yield at 4% higher suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
It is only when you look at Price/CFPS and Price/Sales Ratios (and Price/B Ratio above) that the stock price looks relatively cheap. The 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 11.66 and the current P/CF Ratio at 6.13 is some 47% lower. The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 4.36 and the current one of 1.93 a value some 56% lower. These tests are using CDN$ values. You get the basically the same results using US$ values. So on some relative levels the stock price is cheap.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations, they cover all types of Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell. Most of the recommendations are in the Hold category and the consensus recommendations would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $20.60. This implies a total return of 8.38% with 1.14% from dividends and 7.24% from capital gains. However, there is a big range in the 12 month stock price ranging from $12.70 to $28.00. This matches the analysts' recommendations which are also rather broad.
There are a number of articles about this company and Newmont Mining Corp merging. Who knows if this will happen? There is a recent article in Financial Post about the talks breaking down. A recent article in Mining.com talks about the company cutting compensation packages. At the end of last year, CTV News talked about Peter Munk retiring from the company.
On some relative levels the company is cheap, but it is also in trouble. I realize this stock maybe risky, but I bought it because it is interesting at the moment. I will not keep it for the long term. See my spreadsheet at abx.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Barrick Gold Corporation is a gold mining company with a portfolio of operating mines, and advanced exploration and development projects located across five continents. Its web site is here Barrick Gold.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
Barrick Gold Corp.
On my other blog I am today talking about a recent blog by My Own Advisor continue...
I own this stock of Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX). This is a big gold mining company that I have followed for years. It was on some dividend growth lists at different times and covered by the Investment Reporter. I bought some of this stock in April 2013 because its stock price had fallen hard. I believed the market over reacted. I just bought 100 shares as I am living off my portfolio and do not have much to invest.
I just bought 100 shares as I am living off my portfolio and do not have much to invest. It is fun to do such investing. Basically it is bottom feeding.
This is a resource stock. As often happens with resource stocks, dividends go up and down. For this stock I get an historical average dividend yield of 1.10% and historical median dividend yield of just 0.96%. They raise their dividend when they are doing well and lower when they are not.
Dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 1.7% and 6.5% per year. In 2013 they lowered the dividend by some 75%. Do not forget that I just bought this stock recently because it is having problems and was cheap. This is not a long term buy for me.
The company has not made a profit in 2012 and 2013, so there is no fix for the last 5 year on a Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings. However, on a long term basis, the median DPR for EPS is around 14%. For 2014, analysts expect a DPR for EPS at around 19%. The DPR for earnings has always been quite low.
The DPR for cash flow is also low with a 5 year median DPR for CFPS at 11%. The DPR for CFPS for 2014 is expected to be around 7%. The other thing about this dividend is that it is paid in US$, so it will also fluctuate with the changes in Canadian currency versus US currency.
Well, so far I have made a profit on this stock. However, it is only up 11% since I bought it. In total return I have made 9.4% per year with 7.23% from capital gains and 2.17% from dividends. Unfortunately, the same thing cannot be said for long time shareholders and the stock is down by 12.66% and 2.28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Over the past 5 and 10 years the portion of this total return that was a capital loss is at 14.26% and 4.03%. The portion of the total return attributable to dividend is at 1.56% and 1.75% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 5.9% and 8.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Because of this the "per share" values are important. Revenue is up and has done better in US$ terms than in CDN$ terms. Also, growth is better for the last 10 years than for the last 5 years.
As far as earnings go, the company had no profit in 2012 and 2013. They also measure an adjusted EPS to evaluate the underlying operating performance of the company. With the last measurement, they did better in US$ than in CDN$ and did better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years.
The Cash Flow growth has been quite good and the 10 year growth is better than the 5 year growth. Also they have done better in US$ terms and in CDN$ terms.
The Revenue is up over the past 5 and 10 years by 9.6% and 19.9% per year in US$ and by 6.6% and 17.6% per year in CDN$ terms. Revenue per Share is up by 3.5% and 10.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ and by 0% and 8.8% per year over these periods in CDN$ terms. However, if you look at 5 year running averages, there is better growth in the last 5 years with the Revenue per Share up by 11.2% and 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
There is not growth in EPS as for the last two years the EPS has been negative. For Adjusted EPS growth has be 5.7% and 8.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$. If you look at CDN$ the 5 and 10 year growth is lower at 2.8% and 6.7% per year.
For cash flow, the growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 12.9% and 25.5% per year in US$. In CDN$ terms the growth is at 9.8% and 23.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The growth in CFPS is at 6.6% and 16.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ and in CDN$ it is at 3.6% and 13.9% per year over the same period.
I cannot get a fix on Return on Equity as both the net income and the comprehensive income was negative for 2013. However, the loss in comprehensive income was a lot lower than for net income. The negative ROE for comprehensive income was just 0.1% compared to the negative ROE on net income which was 66.3%.
The Liquidity Ratio is very good, with the one for 2013 at 2.15 and the 5 year median ratio at 2.25. The Debt Ratio is also good at 1.75 and it has a 5 year median ratio of 2.33. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are not uncommon at 2.34 and 1.34 for a resource company; they are usually lower for this company with 5 year median ratios at 1.75 and 0.75.
The thing is, if you invest in resource stocks, you can sometimes make good dividends, but they are seldom solid. Resource stocks often have variable dividends. Also, this company is in some trouble, so to invest in it is rather risky at present. See my spreadsheet at abx.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, April 23, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Barrick Gold Corporation is a gold mining company with a portfolio of operating mines, and advanced exploration and development projects located across five continents. Its web site is here Barrick Gold.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX). This is a big gold mining company that I have followed for years. It was on some dividend growth lists at different times and covered by the Investment Reporter. I bought some of this stock in April 2013 because its stock price had fallen hard. I believed the market over reacted. I just bought 100 shares as I am living off my portfolio and do not have much to invest.
I just bought 100 shares as I am living off my portfolio and do not have much to invest. It is fun to do such investing. Basically it is bottom feeding.
This is a resource stock. As often happens with resource stocks, dividends go up and down. For this stock I get an historical average dividend yield of 1.10% and historical median dividend yield of just 0.96%. They raise their dividend when they are doing well and lower when they are not.
Dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 1.7% and 6.5% per year. In 2013 they lowered the dividend by some 75%. Do not forget that I just bought this stock recently because it is having problems and was cheap. This is not a long term buy for me.
The company has not made a profit in 2012 and 2013, so there is no fix for the last 5 year on a Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings. However, on a long term basis, the median DPR for EPS is around 14%. For 2014, analysts expect a DPR for EPS at around 19%. The DPR for earnings has always been quite low.
The DPR for cash flow is also low with a 5 year median DPR for CFPS at 11%. The DPR for CFPS for 2014 is expected to be around 7%. The other thing about this dividend is that it is paid in US$, so it will also fluctuate with the changes in Canadian currency versus US currency.
Well, so far I have made a profit on this stock. However, it is only up 11% since I bought it. In total return I have made 9.4% per year with 7.23% from capital gains and 2.17% from dividends. Unfortunately, the same thing cannot be said for long time shareholders and the stock is down by 12.66% and 2.28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Over the past 5 and 10 years the portion of this total return that was a capital loss is at 14.26% and 4.03%. The portion of the total return attributable to dividend is at 1.56% and 1.75% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 5.9% and 8.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Because of this the "per share" values are important. Revenue is up and has done better in US$ terms than in CDN$ terms. Also, growth is better for the last 10 years than for the last 5 years.
As far as earnings go, the company had no profit in 2012 and 2013. They also measure an adjusted EPS to evaluate the underlying operating performance of the company. With the last measurement, they did better in US$ than in CDN$ and did better over the past 10 years than over the past 5 years.
The Cash Flow growth has been quite good and the 10 year growth is better than the 5 year growth. Also they have done better in US$ terms and in CDN$ terms.
The Revenue is up over the past 5 and 10 years by 9.6% and 19.9% per year in US$ and by 6.6% and 17.6% per year in CDN$ terms. Revenue per Share is up by 3.5% and 10.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ and by 0% and 8.8% per year over these periods in CDN$ terms. However, if you look at 5 year running averages, there is better growth in the last 5 years with the Revenue per Share up by 11.2% and 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
There is not growth in EPS as for the last two years the EPS has been negative. For Adjusted EPS growth has be 5.7% and 8.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$. If you look at CDN$ the 5 and 10 year growth is lower at 2.8% and 6.7% per year.
For cash flow, the growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 12.9% and 25.5% per year in US$. In CDN$ terms the growth is at 9.8% and 23.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The growth in CFPS is at 6.6% and 16.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ and in CDN$ it is at 3.6% and 13.9% per year over the same period.
I cannot get a fix on Return on Equity as both the net income and the comprehensive income was negative for 2013. However, the loss in comprehensive income was a lot lower than for net income. The negative ROE for comprehensive income was just 0.1% compared to the negative ROE on net income which was 66.3%.
The Liquidity Ratio is very good, with the one for 2013 at 2.15 and the 5 year median ratio at 2.25. The Debt Ratio is also good at 1.75 and it has a 5 year median ratio of 2.33. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are not uncommon at 2.34 and 1.34 for a resource company; they are usually lower for this company with 5 year median ratios at 1.75 and 0.75.
The thing is, if you invest in resource stocks, you can sometimes make good dividends, but they are seldom solid. Resource stocks often have variable dividends. Also, this company is in some trouble, so to invest in it is rather risky at present. See my spreadsheet at abx.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, April 23, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Barrick Gold Corporation is a gold mining company with a portfolio of operating mines, and advanced exploration and development projects located across five continents. Its web site is here Barrick Gold.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, April 17, 2014
Davis & Henderson Corp. 2
I own this stock of Davis & Henderson Corp. (TSX-DH, OTC-DHIFF). This stock has been recommended a number of times by MPL Communications. So I looked into it and bought some. At that time this company was an income trust. Dividend yield was good and they had a history of dividend increases.
When I look at insider selling I find $0.5M of insider selling and $0.5M of net insider selling. All the selling is by the CFO and as a result of this sale, the CFO has no more shares in the company. The CFO has not changed so this sale tells of nothing as people sell shares for all sorts of reasons.
There is some insider ownership with the Chairman owing shares worth around $6.4M, the another director having shares worth around $8.9M and the CEO having shares worth around $1.4M
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.31, 11.77 and 14.14. The current P/E Ratio is 14.12. The current P/E is based on a stock price of $31.20 and 2014 EPS estimates of $2.21. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is still reasonable, but it is at the top end of the reasonable range.
I get a Graham Price of $25.58. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.79, 0.95 and 1.12. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.17. This stock price test suggests that the current stock price is high.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share is 1.75. The current P/B Ratio is 2.18 based on a BVPS of $14.21 and a current stock price of $31.20. The current P/B Ratio is some 24% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price test suggests that the current stock price is high.
Because dividends were cut in the change from an income trust to a corporation, any stock price test based on dividend yield is not valid. I can say that it was expected that old income trusts were expected to end up with a dividend yield between 4 and 5% by a combination of stock price increases and dividend decreases and this is where this stock has end up. The current Dividend Yield is 4.1%.
Looking at the Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratios, the 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 7.10 and the current P/CF Ratio is 17.63 based on a stock price of $31.20 and 2014 CFPS estimate of $2.36. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high. (Analysts do not expect much growth in CFPS for 2014 as the 2014 CFPS estimates is almost 25% lower than the CFPS for 2013.)
If you look at the Price/Sales Ratio, the 10 year medina P/S Ratio is 2.30 and the current P/S Ratio is 2.26 a value almost 2% lower. The current P/S Ratio is based on a stock price of $31.20 and Revenue per Share at $13.80 or Revenue at $1,114.00. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable. (Analysts seem to be expecting a big increase (around 33%) in Revenues for 2014.)
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold, and the consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month target stock price is $31.80. This implies a total return of 6.03% with 1.92% from capital gains and 4.1% from dividends. The 12 total returns are consistent with the recommendations and with my stock price testing.
There is an article in the Financial Postabout the Harland Financial Services purchases being a transformational deal for D&H. The blogger Passive Income Earner did a review of this stock last year. This company was a January 2014 buy for the fund Dynamic Aurion Canadian Equity Fund.
Most of my stock price testing suggests that the stock price is rather high. See my spreadsheet at dh.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, April 16, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Davis & Henderson is a leading solutions provider to the financial services marketplace. Founded in 1875, the company today provides innovative programs, technology products and technology based business services to customers who offer chequing accounts, credit card accounts and personal, commercial, and other lending and leasing products. Its web site is here Davis & Henderson.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider selling I find $0.5M of insider selling and $0.5M of net insider selling. All the selling is by the CFO and as a result of this sale, the CFO has no more shares in the company. The CFO has not changed so this sale tells of nothing as people sell shares for all sorts of reasons.
There is some insider ownership with the Chairman owing shares worth around $6.4M, the another director having shares worth around $8.9M and the CEO having shares worth around $1.4M
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.31, 11.77 and 14.14. The current P/E Ratio is 14.12. The current P/E is based on a stock price of $31.20 and 2014 EPS estimates of $2.21. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is still reasonable, but it is at the top end of the reasonable range.
I get a Graham Price of $25.58. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.79, 0.95 and 1.12. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.17. This stock price test suggests that the current stock price is high.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share is 1.75. The current P/B Ratio is 2.18 based on a BVPS of $14.21 and a current stock price of $31.20. The current P/B Ratio is some 24% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price test suggests that the current stock price is high.
Because dividends were cut in the change from an income trust to a corporation, any stock price test based on dividend yield is not valid. I can say that it was expected that old income trusts were expected to end up with a dividend yield between 4 and 5% by a combination of stock price increases and dividend decreases and this is where this stock has end up. The current Dividend Yield is 4.1%.
Looking at the Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratios, the 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 7.10 and the current P/CF Ratio is 17.63 based on a stock price of $31.20 and 2014 CFPS estimate of $2.36. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high. (Analysts do not expect much growth in CFPS for 2014 as the 2014 CFPS estimates is almost 25% lower than the CFPS for 2013.)
If you look at the Price/Sales Ratio, the 10 year medina P/S Ratio is 2.30 and the current P/S Ratio is 2.26 a value almost 2% lower. The current P/S Ratio is based on a stock price of $31.20 and Revenue per Share at $13.80 or Revenue at $1,114.00. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable. (Analysts seem to be expecting a big increase (around 33%) in Revenues for 2014.)
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold, and the consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month target stock price is $31.80. This implies a total return of 6.03% with 1.92% from capital gains and 4.1% from dividends. The 12 total returns are consistent with the recommendations and with my stock price testing.
There is an article in the Financial Postabout the Harland Financial Services purchases being a transformational deal for D&H. The blogger Passive Income Earner did a review of this stock last year. This company was a January 2014 buy for the fund Dynamic Aurion Canadian Equity Fund.
Most of my stock price testing suggests that the stock price is rather high. See my spreadsheet at dh.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, April 16, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Davis & Henderson is a leading solutions provider to the financial services marketplace. Founded in 1875, the company today provides innovative programs, technology products and technology based business services to customers who offer chequing accounts, credit card accounts and personal, commercial, and other lending and leasing products. Its web site is here Davis & Henderson.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Davis & Henderson Corp.
On my other blog I am today writing about OAS and Immigrants continue...
I own this stock of Davis & Henderson Corp. (TSX-DH, OTC-DHIFF). This stock has been recommended a number of times by MPL Communications. So I looked into it and bought some. At that time this company was an income trust. Dividend yield was good and they had a history of dividend increases.
This is another dividend growth company. This one has rather high dividends and rather lower increases. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth tells us nothing as this used to be an income trust and when it converted to a corporation, it cut its dividends by almost 35%.
As an income trust it had rather high dividend yield with a median dividend yield of around 9% and a median increase of around 3.3%. Currently the dividend is around 4% and the latest dividend increase, for 2013 was for 3.2%. Although the 5 year median dividend yield is still up around 8.4% I doubt it will go there again. I would expect that the dividends would be in the 4 to 5% range.
They have not yet got the Dividend Payout Ratios under control with the 5 year median DPR for earnings at 119% and the DPR for Cash Flow at 68%. Last year 2013 was not a great year for this company and the DPR for earnings was at 197% and for Cash Flow was at 68%. The DPR for earnings is expected by analysts to be much better in 2014 at below 60%.
I have done very well with this stock as I bought it while it was still an income trust company. My total return is 26.77% per year with 18.85% per year from capital gains and 7.92% per year from dividends (or distributions.)
The 5 and 10 year total return to date is at 19.77% and 9.30% per year. The dividend portion of this return is at 6.75% and 6.07% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The capital gains portion of this return is at 13.02% and 3.23% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The thing is that there has not been much increase in the stock price until fairly recently. The stock peaked in 2005 at $23.84 and then wandered around until 2012.
The outstanding shares have increased by 12.9% and 7.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Because of the increasing number of shares, the "per share" become quite important. Revenues have been increasing nicely. Last year was not a good year for earnings or cash flow so they are down. However, for both earnings and cash flow, the 5 year running averages are better than the 5 and 10 year growth figures.
Revenue is up by 17.9% and 12.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share is up by 4.4% and 4.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Earnings are down by 18.4% and 6.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, if you look at the 5 year running averages for the last 5 and 7 years, the decreases is at 3.6% and 0% per year.
Cash Flow is up by 5.9% and 8.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is down by 6.3% per year over the past 5 years and up by 0% per year over the past 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, cash flow per share is up by 2.1% and 3.8% per year over the past 5 and 7 years.
Until 2012, the Return on Equity was above 10%. For 2013 the ROE is low at 3.8% and it has a 5 year median value of 12.7%. The ROE on comprehensive income was somewhat better than that on net income coming in at 6.2%. The 5 year median is also a bit high at 14%.
The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is just 0.71. It means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. The company relies on cash flow to cover current liabilities. If you include cash flows after dividends, the Liquidity Ratio becomes 1.07. Not great but adequate. The Liquidity Ratios are usually better than the current ones as the 5 year median Liquidity Ratio is 0.88 and the Liquidity Ratio with cash flow after dividends is 1.13.
The Debt Ratio is much better with a value of 2013 of 1.65. The 5 year median Debt Ratio is 2.24. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are currently a little high at 2.54 and 1.54. The 5 year median values are much better at 1.56 and 0.56.
This is a company probably best known for providing cheque stock to banks. They are moving towards providing more technological services to banks and other financial institutions. Technology is always disruptive. They are also expanding into the US market.
I am pleased with my investment in this company and I continue to hold this stock. I think that total returns are going to lower in the future, but I see this company as a solid addition to my portfolio. See my spreadsheet at dh.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, April 17, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Davis & Henderson is a leading solutions provider to the financial services marketplace. Founded in 1875, the company today provides innovative programs, technology products and technology based business services to customers who offer chequing accounts, credit card accounts and personal, commercial, and other lending and leasing products. Its web site is here Davis & Henderson.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Davis & Henderson Corp. (TSX-DH, OTC-DHIFF). This stock has been recommended a number of times by MPL Communications. So I looked into it and bought some. At that time this company was an income trust. Dividend yield was good and they had a history of dividend increases.
This is another dividend growth company. This one has rather high dividends and rather lower increases. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth tells us nothing as this used to be an income trust and when it converted to a corporation, it cut its dividends by almost 35%.
As an income trust it had rather high dividend yield with a median dividend yield of around 9% and a median increase of around 3.3%. Currently the dividend is around 4% and the latest dividend increase, for 2013 was for 3.2%. Although the 5 year median dividend yield is still up around 8.4% I doubt it will go there again. I would expect that the dividends would be in the 4 to 5% range.
They have not yet got the Dividend Payout Ratios under control with the 5 year median DPR for earnings at 119% and the DPR for Cash Flow at 68%. Last year 2013 was not a great year for this company and the DPR for earnings was at 197% and for Cash Flow was at 68%. The DPR for earnings is expected by analysts to be much better in 2014 at below 60%.
I have done very well with this stock as I bought it while it was still an income trust company. My total return is 26.77% per year with 18.85% per year from capital gains and 7.92% per year from dividends (or distributions.)
The 5 and 10 year total return to date is at 19.77% and 9.30% per year. The dividend portion of this return is at 6.75% and 6.07% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The capital gains portion of this return is at 13.02% and 3.23% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The thing is that there has not been much increase in the stock price until fairly recently. The stock peaked in 2005 at $23.84 and then wandered around until 2012.
The outstanding shares have increased by 12.9% and 7.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Because of the increasing number of shares, the "per share" become quite important. Revenues have been increasing nicely. Last year was not a good year for earnings or cash flow so they are down. However, for both earnings and cash flow, the 5 year running averages are better than the 5 and 10 year growth figures.
Revenue is up by 17.9% and 12.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share is up by 4.4% and 4.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Earnings are down by 18.4% and 6.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, if you look at the 5 year running averages for the last 5 and 7 years, the decreases is at 3.6% and 0% per year.
Cash Flow is up by 5.9% and 8.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is down by 6.3% per year over the past 5 years and up by 0% per year over the past 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, cash flow per share is up by 2.1% and 3.8% per year over the past 5 and 7 years.
Until 2012, the Return on Equity was above 10%. For 2013 the ROE is low at 3.8% and it has a 5 year median value of 12.7%. The ROE on comprehensive income was somewhat better than that on net income coming in at 6.2%. The 5 year median is also a bit high at 14%.
The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is just 0.71. It means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. The company relies on cash flow to cover current liabilities. If you include cash flows after dividends, the Liquidity Ratio becomes 1.07. Not great but adequate. The Liquidity Ratios are usually better than the current ones as the 5 year median Liquidity Ratio is 0.88 and the Liquidity Ratio with cash flow after dividends is 1.13.
The Debt Ratio is much better with a value of 2013 of 1.65. The 5 year median Debt Ratio is 2.24. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are currently a little high at 2.54 and 1.54. The 5 year median values are much better at 1.56 and 0.56.
This is a company probably best known for providing cheque stock to banks. They are moving towards providing more technological services to banks and other financial institutions. Technology is always disruptive. They are also expanding into the US market.
I am pleased with my investment in this company and I continue to hold this stock. I think that total returns are going to lower in the future, but I see this company as a solid addition to my portfolio. See my spreadsheet at dh.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, April 17, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Davis & Henderson is a leading solutions provider to the financial services marketplace. Founded in 1875, the company today provides innovative programs, technology products and technology based business services to customers who offer chequing accounts, credit card accounts and personal, commercial, and other lending and leasing products. Its web site is here Davis & Henderson.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
Toromont Industries Ltd. 2
I own this stock of Toromont Industries Ltd. (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF). This is one of the stocks I bought after selling Loblaws in 2008. This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list. I bought more in 2008 after selling Onex and AGF Management.
The insider trading report shows that there was insider selling of $2.4M and net insider selling of $2.4M. There was a very small amount of insider buying. This is less than 1% (0.08%) of the market cap of this stock. Insiders not only option but other option like vehicles called Rights Deferred Share Units. (See my site for information on Insider Trading.)
Outstanding shares were increase by 443,000 shares in 2013 with a book value of $8.3M and this numbers of shares was worth $11.8 at the end of 2013. Also, this number of shares was less than 1% (0.58%) of the outstanding shares at the end 2013.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.31, 14.15 and 16.15. The current P/E Ratio is 15.39 based on a stock price of $25.85 and 2014 earnings estimate of $0.58. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is reasonable, although it is at the higher end of the reasonable range. (See my site for information on Price/Earnings Ratio.)
I get a Graham Price of $16.84. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 12.0, 1.40 and 1.60. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.53. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable, although it is at the higher end of the reasonable range. (See my blog for information on the Graham Price.)
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.74 and the current P/B Ratio is 3.45. The current ratio is based on a Book Value per Share of $7.50 and a stock price of $25.85. The current P/B Ratio is some 26% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is high. (However, the 5 year median P/B Ratio is higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio at 3.23 and the current P/B Ratio is only 6% higher than the 5 year median ratio.) (See my blog for information Book Values.)
The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.23% and the current dividend yield is 4% higher at 2.32%. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable. If you look at historical dividend yields, the average is 2.3% which is only 1% lower than the current dividend yield and the median is 1.84% which is 26% lower than the current dividend yield. On an historical basis, the stock price would appear to be reasonable to cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The Hold recommendation is the most common and it is the consensus recommendation. The 12 month target stock price is $27.30. This implies a 12 month total return of 7.93% with 2.32% from dividends and 5.61% from capital gains. (See my blog for information on analyst ratings .)
The blogger Dividend Blogger has this stock and recently talked about the dividend increase.
This is a dividend growth stock and most of my stock tests suggest that the stock price is reasonable. This is especially so of the historical dividend yield test. I note that most analysts have no enthusiasm for this stock. See my spreadsheet at tih.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, April 14, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
There are two sections to this company. The Equipment Group is for Caterpillar dealerships. CIMCO is a market leader in the design, engineering, fabrication and installation of industrial and recreational refrigeration systems. Its web site is here Toromont Industries.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
The insider trading report shows that there was insider selling of $2.4M and net insider selling of $2.4M. There was a very small amount of insider buying. This is less than 1% (0.08%) of the market cap of this stock. Insiders not only option but other option like vehicles called Rights Deferred Share Units. (See my site for information on Insider Trading.)
Outstanding shares were increase by 443,000 shares in 2013 with a book value of $8.3M and this numbers of shares was worth $11.8 at the end of 2013. Also, this number of shares was less than 1% (0.58%) of the outstanding shares at the end 2013.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.31, 14.15 and 16.15. The current P/E Ratio is 15.39 based on a stock price of $25.85 and 2014 earnings estimate of $0.58. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is reasonable, although it is at the higher end of the reasonable range. (See my site for information on Price/Earnings Ratio.)
I get a Graham Price of $16.84. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 12.0, 1.40 and 1.60. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.53. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable, although it is at the higher end of the reasonable range. (See my blog for information on the Graham Price.)
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.74 and the current P/B Ratio is 3.45. The current ratio is based on a Book Value per Share of $7.50 and a stock price of $25.85. The current P/B Ratio is some 26% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is high. (However, the 5 year median P/B Ratio is higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio at 3.23 and the current P/B Ratio is only 6% higher than the 5 year median ratio.) (See my blog for information Book Values.)
The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.23% and the current dividend yield is 4% higher at 2.32%. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable. If you look at historical dividend yields, the average is 2.3% which is only 1% lower than the current dividend yield and the median is 1.84% which is 26% lower than the current dividend yield. On an historical basis, the stock price would appear to be reasonable to cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The Hold recommendation is the most common and it is the consensus recommendation. The 12 month target stock price is $27.30. This implies a 12 month total return of 7.93% with 2.32% from dividends and 5.61% from capital gains. (See my blog for information on analyst ratings .)
The blogger Dividend Blogger has this stock and recently talked about the dividend increase.
This is a dividend growth stock and most of my stock tests suggest that the stock price is reasonable. This is especially so of the historical dividend yield test. I note that most analysts have no enthusiasm for this stock. See my spreadsheet at tih.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, April 14, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
There are two sections to this company. The Equipment Group is for Caterpillar dealerships. CIMCO is a market leader in the design, engineering, fabrication and installation of industrial and recreational refrigeration systems. Its web site is here Toromont Industries.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, April 14, 2014
Toromont Industries Ltd.
On my other blog I am today writing about what is in my portfolio continue...
I own this stock of Toromont Industries Ltd. (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF). This is one of the stocks I bought after selling Loblaws in 2008. This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list. I bought more in 2008 after selling Onex and AGF Management.
This stock is a dividend growth stock with a moderate dividend and generally good dividend growth. The dividend was cut in 2011 to account for the dividend that went with the Enerflex spin off. So this was not really a dividend cut.
The 10 year dividend growth, which includes the cut in 2008, is at 9.3% per year. This does really reflect the increases under this stock. In 2013, dividends were raised by 8.3% and for 2014 dividends are already up by 15.4%. The median dividend increase over the past 10 years is at 12.6%. So it comes down to decent dividend and decent growth.
The Dividend Payout Ratio are good on this stock with the 5 year median DPR for EPS at 32% and for CFPS at 22%. The DPR for 2013 is the same at 32% for EPS and 22% for CFPS.
The only way to value this stock's performance is to include the Enerflex (TSX-EFX) spin off. The problem was that this spin off was valued at $12.95 but it was not long before the price fell. I sold these shares at around $10.25 and felt lucky to have done so. I have made a total return of 7.34% per year with 5.46% from capital gains and 1.88% from dividends.
If you substitute what I actually got for my Enerflex stock in calculating total return over the past 5 and 10 years, the total return is at 8.74% and 8.33% per year. This would include a capital loss of 1.44% over the past 5 years and a capital gain of 2.24% per year over the past 10 years. The dividends portion of this return is at 10.18% per and 6.09% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. None of this is a great showing, but it is acceptable.
The higher dividends in these calculations are because the spin-off of Enerflex is considered to be a dividend. The dividends would be closer to what I got on my stock at 1.88%, although total return would be the same as shown above.
Outstanding shares have increased by 3.5% and 1.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. I did not exclude Enerflex from revenue, cash flow or earnings. The problem is that Enerflex was just purchased in 2010 and then sold in 2011. It did affect these values in these two years, but not the values before or after.
The 10 year values for Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow growth is better than that for the last 5 years. Also, exactly 5 and 10 years ago were good years for this company, so the 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years are better than the values for the past 5 and 10 years. Also there has been growth over the past couple of years.
Revenue per Share is down by 8.8% per year over the past 5 years. Revenues per Share are flat for the past 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, the Revenue per Share is down just 3.3% per year over the past 5 years and is up by 4% per year over the past 10 years. Revenue per share has grown over the past couple of years.
EPS is down by 5.9% per year over the past 5 years and up by 5.7% per year per the past 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, the EPS is down less than 1% per year over the past 5 years and is up by 8.7% per year over the past 10 years. EPS has grown over the past couple of years.
CFPS is down by 3% and up by 4.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, CFPS is down by less than 1% per year over the past 5 years is up by 7.5% per year over the past 10 years. CFPS is up by almost 10% between 2012 and 2013.
Over the past 10 years, Return on Equity was lower than 10% for only one year and that year was 2010. The ROE for 2013 was 21.3% and the 5 year median ROE is at 21.3%. The ROE on comprehensive income is similar with an ROE for 2013 at 22.8% and with a 5 year median at 22.8%.
The debt ratios for this stock are very good. The Liquidity Ratio is 2.18. The Debt Ratio is 2.27 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are at 1.79 and 0.79. This company has a strong balance sheet.
I like the strong balance sheet for this industrial stock. I think that there will be good dividend increases in the future. To me it is still a dividend growth stock. However, their purchase and spin off of Enerflex seems to make little sense. This stock has good Dividend Payout Ratios. See my spreadsheet at tih.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, April 15, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
There are two sections to this company. The Equipment Group is for Caterpillar dealerships. CIMCO is a market leader in the design, engineering, fabrication and installation of industrial and recreational refrigeration systems. Its web site is here Toromont Industries.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Toromont Industries Ltd. (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF). This is one of the stocks I bought after selling Loblaws in 2008. This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list. I bought more in 2008 after selling Onex and AGF Management.
This stock is a dividend growth stock with a moderate dividend and generally good dividend growth. The dividend was cut in 2011 to account for the dividend that went with the Enerflex spin off. So this was not really a dividend cut.
The 10 year dividend growth, which includes the cut in 2008, is at 9.3% per year. This does really reflect the increases under this stock. In 2013, dividends were raised by 8.3% and for 2014 dividends are already up by 15.4%. The median dividend increase over the past 10 years is at 12.6%. So it comes down to decent dividend and decent growth.
The Dividend Payout Ratio are good on this stock with the 5 year median DPR for EPS at 32% and for CFPS at 22%. The DPR for 2013 is the same at 32% for EPS and 22% for CFPS.
The only way to value this stock's performance is to include the Enerflex (TSX-EFX) spin off. The problem was that this spin off was valued at $12.95 but it was not long before the price fell. I sold these shares at around $10.25 and felt lucky to have done so. I have made a total return of 7.34% per year with 5.46% from capital gains and 1.88% from dividends.
If you substitute what I actually got for my Enerflex stock in calculating total return over the past 5 and 10 years, the total return is at 8.74% and 8.33% per year. This would include a capital loss of 1.44% over the past 5 years and a capital gain of 2.24% per year over the past 10 years. The dividends portion of this return is at 10.18% per and 6.09% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. None of this is a great showing, but it is acceptable.
The higher dividends in these calculations are because the spin-off of Enerflex is considered to be a dividend. The dividends would be closer to what I got on my stock at 1.88%, although total return would be the same as shown above.
Outstanding shares have increased by 3.5% and 1.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. I did not exclude Enerflex from revenue, cash flow or earnings. The problem is that Enerflex was just purchased in 2010 and then sold in 2011. It did affect these values in these two years, but not the values before or after.
The 10 year values for Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow growth is better than that for the last 5 years. Also, exactly 5 and 10 years ago were good years for this company, so the 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years are better than the values for the past 5 and 10 years. Also there has been growth over the past couple of years.
Revenue per Share is down by 8.8% per year over the past 5 years. Revenues per Share are flat for the past 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, the Revenue per Share is down just 3.3% per year over the past 5 years and is up by 4% per year over the past 10 years. Revenue per share has grown over the past couple of years.
EPS is down by 5.9% per year over the past 5 years and up by 5.7% per year per the past 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, the EPS is down less than 1% per year over the past 5 years and is up by 8.7% per year over the past 10 years. EPS has grown over the past couple of years.
CFPS is down by 3% and up by 4.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, CFPS is down by less than 1% per year over the past 5 years is up by 7.5% per year over the past 10 years. CFPS is up by almost 10% between 2012 and 2013.
Over the past 10 years, Return on Equity was lower than 10% for only one year and that year was 2010. The ROE for 2013 was 21.3% and the 5 year median ROE is at 21.3%. The ROE on comprehensive income is similar with an ROE for 2013 at 22.8% and with a 5 year median at 22.8%.
The debt ratios for this stock are very good. The Liquidity Ratio is 2.18. The Debt Ratio is 2.27 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are at 1.79 and 0.79. This company has a strong balance sheet.
I like the strong balance sheet for this industrial stock. I think that there will be good dividend increases in the future. To me it is still a dividend growth stock. However, their purchase and spin off of Enerflex seems to make little sense. This stock has good Dividend Payout Ratios. See my spreadsheet at tih.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, April 15, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
There are two sections to this company. The Equipment Group is for Caterpillar dealerships. CIMCO is a market leader in the design, engineering, fabrication and installation of industrial and recreational refrigeration systems. Its web site is here Toromont Industries.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, April 11, 2014
Barclays PLC ADR 2
I own this stock of Barclays PLC ADR (UK-BARC, NYSE-BCS). I bought this stock when Barrett took over in 2000. Barrett used to run Bank of Montreal in Canada. At that time Barclays Bank was a good dividend paying stock and I thought it would give me some geographical diversifications.
I do not find it easy to get insider trading information for non-Canadian companies. A site I went to called Stockopedia only talked about insider trading for directors. In the past year insider selling for directors was at $30.8M US$ and net insider selling was at $30.7M US$. There was a small amount of insider buying at $0.1M US$.
Outstanding shares were increased by 257M for stock options in 2013. These shares have a book value of $1,309M US$. This number of shares were worth around $1,154.7M US$ at the end of 2013. Outstanding shares have increased by leaps and bounds over the past few years with 2010 outstanding shares increase by 12M and $54.6M US$, with 2011 outstanding shares increased by 17M shares and $63.7M and with 2012 outstanding shares increased by 44M and $157.7M US$. This involves a rather lot of money.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.73, 10.12 and 12.87. These ratios have been moving down recently as the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios are 7.72, 9.79 and 11.63. The current P/E Ratios is 10.37 based on a US$ stock price of $16.32 with $1.57 US$ 2014 EPS estimates for 2014. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $32.58 US$. The 10 year low, median and high median P/GP Ratios are 0.59, 0.784 and 0.89, The current P/GP Ratio is 0.50 based on a stock price of $16.32 US$. This stock price test suggests that the stock is cheap.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.75. The current P/B Ratio is 0.55. The current ratio is some 73% of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.26% and the current dividend yield is 2.62% a value some 16% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is rather cheap. However, if you look at historical dividend yields, the average is 3.72% and the median is 3.44%. These are 30% and 24% higher than the current dividend yield. On an historical basis, the stock price is expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell. There is only one recommendation each in the last two categories. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price target on this stock is UK£2.95. This implies a total return of 18.88%, with 2.62% from dividends and 21.50% from capital gains. A UK£2.95 price would translate into a $19.58 US$ price.
The Motley Fool site has Alan Oscroft saying that Barclays PLC is his pick of the banks. He thinks that it is cheap and will raise dividends nicely this year and next. I hope he is right. The site WKRB talks about this bank getting both Sell and Buy ratings.
I do not like how much is going to staff incentive plans. At the moment I have no plans to sell this stock however, I am keeping my eye on it. I still hope it will do better. See my spreadsheet at bcs.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, April 10, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
One of the largest financial services groups in the United Kingdom, Barclays is engaged in banking, investment banking and asset management worldwide. Its web site is here Barclays.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not find it easy to get insider trading information for non-Canadian companies. A site I went to called Stockopedia only talked about insider trading for directors. In the past year insider selling for directors was at $30.8M US$ and net insider selling was at $30.7M US$. There was a small amount of insider buying at $0.1M US$.
Outstanding shares were increased by 257M for stock options in 2013. These shares have a book value of $1,309M US$. This number of shares were worth around $1,154.7M US$ at the end of 2013. Outstanding shares have increased by leaps and bounds over the past few years with 2010 outstanding shares increase by 12M and $54.6M US$, with 2011 outstanding shares increased by 17M shares and $63.7M and with 2012 outstanding shares increased by 44M and $157.7M US$. This involves a rather lot of money.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.73, 10.12 and 12.87. These ratios have been moving down recently as the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios are 7.72, 9.79 and 11.63. The current P/E Ratios is 10.37 based on a US$ stock price of $16.32 with $1.57 US$ 2014 EPS estimates for 2014. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $32.58 US$. The 10 year low, median and high median P/GP Ratios are 0.59, 0.784 and 0.89, The current P/GP Ratio is 0.50 based on a stock price of $16.32 US$. This stock price test suggests that the stock is cheap.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.75. The current P/B Ratio is 0.55. The current ratio is some 73% of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.26% and the current dividend yield is 2.62% a value some 16% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is rather cheap. However, if you look at historical dividend yields, the average is 3.72% and the median is 3.44%. These are 30% and 24% higher than the current dividend yield. On an historical basis, the stock price is expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell. There is only one recommendation each in the last two categories. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price target on this stock is UK£2.95. This implies a total return of 18.88%, with 2.62% from dividends and 21.50% from capital gains. A UK£2.95 price would translate into a $19.58 US$ price.
The Motley Fool site has Alan Oscroft saying that Barclays PLC is his pick of the banks. He thinks that it is cheap and will raise dividends nicely this year and next. I hope he is right. The site WKRB talks about this bank getting both Sell and Buy ratings.
I do not like how much is going to staff incentive plans. At the moment I have no plans to sell this stock however, I am keeping my eye on it. I still hope it will do better. See my spreadsheet at bcs.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, April 10, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
One of the largest financial services groups in the United Kingdom, Barclays is engaged in banking, investment banking and asset management worldwide. Its web site is here Barclays.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Barclays PLC ADR
I own this stock of Barclays PLC ADR (UK-BARC, NYSE-BCS). I bought this stock when Barrett took over in 2000. Barrett used to run Bank of Montreal in Canada. At that time it was a good dividend paying stock and I thought it would give me some geographical diversifications.
Although this bank has been in trouble since 2008, you can see the value of investing in dividend paying stocks. I have gained 3% per year on this investment. Not great mind you. However, I have not lost and I expect the bank to recover. Most banks outside Canada were hit a lot harder than Canadian banks were.
Dividends are paid in UK pounds, so dividends I get for my ADR shares, valued in US$ can vary because of currency exchange. Dividends are not paid like we get for most Canadian companies, including banks. For this bank you get one big dividend at the beginning of the year and then 3 small interim dividends. (This bank prior to 2008 used to pay one big dividend at the first of the year and then one small one at the end of the year.)
Because of the 2008 crisis, the dividends were decreased by 97% for 2009. They were raised by 350% in 2010, but that just means they were some 87% below the 2008 dividends. There were good increases in 2011 and 2012 of 22% and 18%, but then increases stopped. Dividends are still 81% lower than what they were in 2008 and it does not seem that they will catch up to 2008 dividends anytime soon.
This company had an EPS loss in 2012. For the financial year of 2013, the dividends paid were 175% of ESP. In 2013 the CFPS was negative. None of this gives me confidence of a dividend hike anytime soon.
Analysts seem to be expecting that dividends would go in in 2013 and now in 2014. However, the dividends did not change in 2013 from that paid in 2012. So far in 2014, the first dividend, which is always the largest paid in the year is that same as for 2012 and 2013.
The 5 and 10 years total return is very low at 0.73 per year for last 5 years and a loss of 6.57% per year for the past 10 years. The capital loss for the last 5 and 10 years is at 1.5% and 9.78% per year. The dividend portion of the total return is 2.23% and 3.21% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Outstanding shares have increased by 7.9% and 6.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Most of these increases occurred in 2008 and 2009 at the rate of 27% and 36%. The shares have increased due to stock options, Share Issues and Conversion of Notes. It is the last two that have caused the considerable increases in 2008 and 2009. Revenues are up over the past 5 and 10 years, but not so much Revenue per Share, although if you use the 5 year running figures for Revenue they are somewhat better. Net Income and EPS are both down and Cash Flow is negative for 2013.
Revenue is up by 4% and 8.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is down by 5.6% and up by 2.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share is better using the 5 year running averages with RPS down by 3.4% and up by 4.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
EPS is down by 61.9% and 56.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Using the EPS 5 year running averages, the values are not so bad with EPS down by 15.4% and by 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Net Income is down by 36.6% and 15% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages net income is down by 4.2% and up by 4.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
However, what is not good is that although net income was positive for 2013, comprehensive income was negative. This is not a good sign. When the net income and comprehensive income are so different it calls question the quality of the earnings.
The Return on Equity for 2013 is very low at just 0.8%. The 5 year median ROE is also very low at 2.9%. As I said earlier the comprehensive income is negative so we do not have an ROE on it.
The Debt Ratio at 1.05 is generally where this ratio is for Banks. However, I have noticed that Canadian Banks have increased their Debt Ratios to 1.06. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2013 are 20.52 and 19.52. This is lower than they have been traditionally, but here again I see that the Canadian Banks are lowering these ratios into the 17.00 and 16.00 ranges. The better Canadian Ratios probably means that the Canadian banks are still more solid than this bank is.
This bank still seems to be struggling although analysts are still expecting better things from it this year. See my spreadsheet at bcs.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, April 11, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
One of the largest financial services groups in the United Kingdom, Barclays is engaged in banking, investment banking and asset management worldwide. Its web site is here Barclays.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Although this bank has been in trouble since 2008, you can see the value of investing in dividend paying stocks. I have gained 3% per year on this investment. Not great mind you. However, I have not lost and I expect the bank to recover. Most banks outside Canada were hit a lot harder than Canadian banks were.
Dividends are paid in UK pounds, so dividends I get for my ADR shares, valued in US$ can vary because of currency exchange. Dividends are not paid like we get for most Canadian companies, including banks. For this bank you get one big dividend at the beginning of the year and then 3 small interim dividends. (This bank prior to 2008 used to pay one big dividend at the first of the year and then one small one at the end of the year.)
Because of the 2008 crisis, the dividends were decreased by 97% for 2009. They were raised by 350% in 2010, but that just means they were some 87% below the 2008 dividends. There were good increases in 2011 and 2012 of 22% and 18%, but then increases stopped. Dividends are still 81% lower than what they were in 2008 and it does not seem that they will catch up to 2008 dividends anytime soon.
This company had an EPS loss in 2012. For the financial year of 2013, the dividends paid were 175% of ESP. In 2013 the CFPS was negative. None of this gives me confidence of a dividend hike anytime soon.
Analysts seem to be expecting that dividends would go in in 2013 and now in 2014. However, the dividends did not change in 2013 from that paid in 2012. So far in 2014, the first dividend, which is always the largest paid in the year is that same as for 2012 and 2013.
The 5 and 10 years total return is very low at 0.73 per year for last 5 years and a loss of 6.57% per year for the past 10 years. The capital loss for the last 5 and 10 years is at 1.5% and 9.78% per year. The dividend portion of the total return is 2.23% and 3.21% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Outstanding shares have increased by 7.9% and 6.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Most of these increases occurred in 2008 and 2009 at the rate of 27% and 36%. The shares have increased due to stock options, Share Issues and Conversion of Notes. It is the last two that have caused the considerable increases in 2008 and 2009. Revenues are up over the past 5 and 10 years, but not so much Revenue per Share, although if you use the 5 year running figures for Revenue they are somewhat better. Net Income and EPS are both down and Cash Flow is negative for 2013.
Revenue is up by 4% and 8.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is down by 5.6% and up by 2.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share is better using the 5 year running averages with RPS down by 3.4% and up by 4.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
EPS is down by 61.9% and 56.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Using the EPS 5 year running averages, the values are not so bad with EPS down by 15.4% and by 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Net Income is down by 36.6% and 15% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages net income is down by 4.2% and up by 4.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
However, what is not good is that although net income was positive for 2013, comprehensive income was negative. This is not a good sign. When the net income and comprehensive income are so different it calls question the quality of the earnings.
The Return on Equity for 2013 is very low at just 0.8%. The 5 year median ROE is also very low at 2.9%. As I said earlier the comprehensive income is negative so we do not have an ROE on it.
The Debt Ratio at 1.05 is generally where this ratio is for Banks. However, I have noticed that Canadian Banks have increased their Debt Ratios to 1.06. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2013 are 20.52 and 19.52. This is lower than they have been traditionally, but here again I see that the Canadian Banks are lowering these ratios into the 17.00 and 16.00 ranges. The better Canadian Ratios probably means that the Canadian banks are still more solid than this bank is.
This bank still seems to be struggling although analysts are still expecting better things from it this year. See my spreadsheet at bcs.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, April 11, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
One of the largest financial services groups in the United Kingdom, Barclays is engaged in banking, investment banking and asset management worldwide. Its web site is here Barclays.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, April 9, 2014
Sun Life Financial Inc. 2
On my other blog I am today writing about March 2014 Dividends continue...
I own this stock of Sun Life Financial Inc. (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF). I own this stock of Sun Life Financial Inc. (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF). After I sold my CIBC bond I had money to buy some stocks so I made a hit list and looked for ones on this list selling at a reasonable price. This stock was selling at a reasonable price.
When I look at insider trading, I find insider selling of $40.5M and net insider selling at $40.2M. This is a lot. Insiders not only have stock options, but also have other option like vehicles called Deferred Share Units, Units Performance Share Units, Units Restricted Share Units, Units Sun Shares, Units Stock Fund Units and Units Incentive Share Units. So there are lots of ways that insiders are rewarded.
In 2013, outstanding shares were increase by 3M shares for stock options with a book value of $120M and this amount of shares were worth $112M at the end of 2013. This is reason enough to vote negative on questions of say on pay on the proxy. This is the highest increase in outstanding shares in the last few years as other years recently outstanding shares were increased by 1M to 2M shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios were 8.75, 10.40 and 11.90. This are a fair bit lower than the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios which were 11.90, 13.28 and 14.57. The current P/E Ratio is 13.26 based on a stock price of $36.59 and 2014 EPS estimates of $2.76. This stock price test says that the stock price is high.
I get a Graham Price of $37.82. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.76, 0.99 and 1.10. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.97 based on a stock price of $36.59. This stock price test says that the stock price is reasonable and below a median price.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.35. The current P/B Ratio is 1.59 based on a share price of $36.59 and a BVPS of $23.03. The current P/B Ratio is 18% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but towards to high end of the reasonable range.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 5.44% and the current dividend yield is 3.94% a value almost 28% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high. The historical average dividend yield is 4.49% a value some 12% higher than the current dividend yield. The historical median dividend yield is 2.5% a value some 57.4% lower than the current dividend yield. Here again there is mixed signals on reasonableness of the stock price. On an historical basis, the stock price would at least appear to be reasonable.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The most recommendations are in the Hold category and the consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $40.30. This implies a total return of 14.07% with 3.95% from dividends and 10.14% from capital gains.
You have to wonder about a Hold consensus and a total return expected of 14%. Rather a high expected return for a Hold recommendation. The problem is that there is a huge range of for the 12 month stock price consensus from $37.00 to $43.00, which comes to a 5% to a 22% total return.
A recent article in Forbes talks about this stock hitting oversold territory. By the way, this is a bullish sign. The blogger Dividend Growth Investing and Retirement explains why he has recently sold his shares in this company. He is right, of course, that this company is no longer a dividend growth company. However, I feel that it will be one again, I just do not know when. The blogger Passive Income Earner has a slightly different take on this stock.
The stock price is probably still at a reasonable level. This is certainly the case on a long term basis. However, this company has yet to really recover from 2008. The thing is we are in a time with extremely low historical interest rates. This is one big problem for insurance companies. I think that you got to consider insurance companies to be of high risk than they normally are considered to be. At this point, I will not be adding stock to any insurance company I currently hold, although on the other hand, I am not selling my shares either. See my spreadsheet at slf.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, April 8, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Sun Life Financial is a leading international financial services organization providing a diverse range of protection and wealth accumulation products and services to individuals and corporate customers. Chartered in 1865, Sun Life Financial and its partners today have operations in key markets worldwide, including Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, India, China and Bermuda. Its web site is here Sun Life.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Sun Life Financial Inc. (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF). I own this stock of Sun Life Financial Inc. (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF). After I sold my CIBC bond I had money to buy some stocks so I made a hit list and looked for ones on this list selling at a reasonable price. This stock was selling at a reasonable price.
When I look at insider trading, I find insider selling of $40.5M and net insider selling at $40.2M. This is a lot. Insiders not only have stock options, but also have other option like vehicles called Deferred Share Units, Units Performance Share Units, Units Restricted Share Units, Units Sun Shares, Units Stock Fund Units and Units Incentive Share Units. So there are lots of ways that insiders are rewarded.
In 2013, outstanding shares were increase by 3M shares for stock options with a book value of $120M and this amount of shares were worth $112M at the end of 2013. This is reason enough to vote negative on questions of say on pay on the proxy. This is the highest increase in outstanding shares in the last few years as other years recently outstanding shares were increased by 1M to 2M shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios were 8.75, 10.40 and 11.90. This are a fair bit lower than the 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios which were 11.90, 13.28 and 14.57. The current P/E Ratio is 13.26 based on a stock price of $36.59 and 2014 EPS estimates of $2.76. This stock price test says that the stock price is high.
I get a Graham Price of $37.82. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.76, 0.99 and 1.10. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.97 based on a stock price of $36.59. This stock price test says that the stock price is reasonable and below a median price.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.35. The current P/B Ratio is 1.59 based on a share price of $36.59 and a BVPS of $23.03. The current P/B Ratio is 18% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but towards to high end of the reasonable range.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 5.44% and the current dividend yield is 3.94% a value almost 28% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high. The historical average dividend yield is 4.49% a value some 12% higher than the current dividend yield. The historical median dividend yield is 2.5% a value some 57.4% lower than the current dividend yield. Here again there is mixed signals on reasonableness of the stock price. On an historical basis, the stock price would at least appear to be reasonable.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The most recommendations are in the Hold category and the consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $40.30. This implies a total return of 14.07% with 3.95% from dividends and 10.14% from capital gains.
You have to wonder about a Hold consensus and a total return expected of 14%. Rather a high expected return for a Hold recommendation. The problem is that there is a huge range of for the 12 month stock price consensus from $37.00 to $43.00, which comes to a 5% to a 22% total return.
A recent article in Forbes talks about this stock hitting oversold territory. By the way, this is a bullish sign. The blogger Dividend Growth Investing and Retirement explains why he has recently sold his shares in this company. He is right, of course, that this company is no longer a dividend growth company. However, I feel that it will be one again, I just do not know when. The blogger Passive Income Earner has a slightly different take on this stock.
The stock price is probably still at a reasonable level. This is certainly the case on a long term basis. However, this company has yet to really recover from 2008. The thing is we are in a time with extremely low historical interest rates. This is one big problem for insurance companies. I think that you got to consider insurance companies to be of high risk than they normally are considered to be. At this point, I will not be adding stock to any insurance company I currently hold, although on the other hand, I am not selling my shares either. See my spreadsheet at slf.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, April 8, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Sun Life Financial is a leading international financial services organization providing a diverse range of protection and wealth accumulation products and services to individuals and corporate customers. Chartered in 1865, Sun Life Financial and its partners today have operations in key markets worldwide, including Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, India, China and Bermuda. Its web site is here Sun Life.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, April 8, 2014
Sun Life Financial Inc.
I own this stock of Sun Life Financial Inc. (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF). After I sold my CIBC bond I had money to buy some stocks so I made a hit list and looked for ones on this list selling at a reasonable price. This stock was selling at a reasonable price.
Insurance companies are still having a hard time. This will continue until interest rates go to a more normal level and it is hard to say when that will be. For my investment in this company I have made a return of 6.13% with 3.83% from dividends and 2.3% from capital gains.
As with other insurance companies, this company has not raised their dividends since 2008. The dividend payout ratios are reasonable at 55.6% for EPS and 31.2% for CFPS.
The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock has not been much with the 5 and 10 year total returns at 7.22% and 2.31% per year. The portion of these returns from dividends is 3.34% and 3.24% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The portion of these returns from capital gains is at 3.88% per year over the past 5 years and a loss of 0.92% per year over the past 10 years. Note that over the past two years, the stock price has increased by over 42% each year.
Of course the beauty of dividend paying stock is that you tend not to lose much over the longer timer because of the dividends.
The outstanding shares have increased marginally over the past 5 and 10 years at 1.7% and 0% per year. Revenues, earnings and cash flows are all down over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts last year thought 2013 would be a better year for this stock. Now they think that 2014 will be a better year.
Revenue per Share is down by 3.9% and 4.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings are up by 2.5% per year over the past 5 years, but down by 3.22% per year over the past 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is down by 20% and 15% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity is also low, coming in at just 6.1% for 2013 and with a 5 year median ROE of 6.1%. A brighter story is that the comprehensive income was better than net income and has an ROE or 10.7% for 2013 with a 5 year median value of 8.2%.
The Liquidity Ratio at 1.97 for 2013 is good and this ratio has always been good. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.10, but this is better than a lot of finance companies. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 11.50 and 10.50 are normal for this company and lower than some other financial companies.
I believe that this stock will recover and again become a dividend growth stock. I just do not know when this will occur. See my spreadsheet at slf.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, April 9, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Sun Life Financial is a leading international financial services organization providing a diverse range of protection and wealth accumulation products and services to individuals and corporate customers. Chartered in 1865, Sun Life Financial and its partners today have operations in key markets worldwide, including Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, India, China and Bermuda. Its web site is here Sun Life.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Insurance companies are still having a hard time. This will continue until interest rates go to a more normal level and it is hard to say when that will be. For my investment in this company I have made a return of 6.13% with 3.83% from dividends and 2.3% from capital gains.
As with other insurance companies, this company has not raised their dividends since 2008. The dividend payout ratios are reasonable at 55.6% for EPS and 31.2% for CFPS.
The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock has not been much with the 5 and 10 year total returns at 7.22% and 2.31% per year. The portion of these returns from dividends is 3.34% and 3.24% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The portion of these returns from capital gains is at 3.88% per year over the past 5 years and a loss of 0.92% per year over the past 10 years. Note that over the past two years, the stock price has increased by over 42% each year.
Of course the beauty of dividend paying stock is that you tend not to lose much over the longer timer because of the dividends.
The outstanding shares have increased marginally over the past 5 and 10 years at 1.7% and 0% per year. Revenues, earnings and cash flows are all down over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts last year thought 2013 would be a better year for this stock. Now they think that 2014 will be a better year.
Revenue per Share is down by 3.9% and 4.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings are up by 2.5% per year over the past 5 years, but down by 3.22% per year over the past 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is down by 20% and 15% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity is also low, coming in at just 6.1% for 2013 and with a 5 year median ROE of 6.1%. A brighter story is that the comprehensive income was better than net income and has an ROE or 10.7% for 2013 with a 5 year median value of 8.2%.
The Liquidity Ratio at 1.97 for 2013 is good and this ratio has always been good. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.10, but this is better than a lot of finance companies. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 11.50 and 10.50 are normal for this company and lower than some other financial companies.
I believe that this stock will recover and again become a dividend growth stock. I just do not know when this will occur. See my spreadsheet at slf.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, April 9, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Sun Life Financial is a leading international financial services organization providing a diverse range of protection and wealth accumulation products and services to individuals and corporate customers. Chartered in 1865, Sun Life Financial and its partners today have operations in key markets worldwide, including Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, India, China and Bermuda. Its web site is here Sun Life.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, April 7, 2014
Melcor Developments Inc. 2
On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks to buy continue...
I own this stock of Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF). This was one of the stocks on Mike Higgs' list of good dividend growth stocks. So I looked into it and bought it. I bought this stock first in 2008 and then some more in 2009. It is a little followed real estate company from Western Canada.
When I look at insider trading, I find insider selling at $5.3M and no insider buying. There is insider ownership, the most notable is that of the Chairman who owns shares worth around $35.5M. There is some other insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $1.2M, an officer having shares worth around $2.0M and a director with shares worth around $2.7M.
For 2013 the outstanding shares were increased by 547,000 for stock options with a book value of $7.8M. This number of shares was worth $11M at the end of 2013. This number of shares is also 1.8% of the outstanding shares. I looked at the increase in outstanding shares for 2010 to 2012 and they were all under 1%.
When I look at the increase in the number of shares for stock options for 2013, I think that an increase of 1.8% is rather high. Most companies increase their outstanding shares for stock options at a lower percentage of the outstanding shares. Take TransCanada Corp which I recently reviewed where the share option book value was $80M, a much higher value than for this stock. However, the increase in actual shares for TransCanada Corp only was at 0.3% of the outstanding shares of the company.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.23, 6.07 and 6.79. The current P/E Ratio is 10.17 based on a stock price of $21.56 and a 2014 EPS estimate of $2.12. This stock test suggests that the stock is rather high. However, the P/E Ratios on this stock are very low.
I get a Graham Price of $21.56. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.39, 0.61 and 0.78. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.57 based on a stock price of $21.56. This stock test suggests that the stock is in the reasonable price range.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.02. The current P/B Ratio is 0.86 a value just 84% of the 10 year ratio. This is based on a stock price of $21.56 and a BVPS of $25.03. This stock test suggests that the stock is in the reasonable price range. Also, when the P/B Ratio is below 1.00 a stock is generally considered to be cheap.
I get a 5 year median dividend yield of 2.92% and the current dividend yield is 2.32%, a value some 21% lower. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively rather high. However, if you look at historical average and median dividend yields of 2.83% and 2.77%, the current dividend yield is from 16% to 18% lower. This stock test suggests that the stock is in the reasonable price range, but it might be towards to top end of this range.
As far as I can see, there seems to be only one analyst following this stock and the analyst's recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $29.50. This implies a total return of $39.15% with 2.32% from dividends and $36.83% from capital gains.
This company is based on Edmonton and the Edmonton Journal has a positive article on this company and its good showing in 2013. There is a second article in the Edmonton Journal talking about the chairman who says that Melcor is a public company with a family-company flavor.
This is a small real estate company from Western Canada. It is a rather risky stock to own although I have done just fine on it. You would buy it for diversification. See my spreadsheet at mrd.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, April 04, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This company is primarily engaged in the acquisition of land for development and sale of residential communities, multi-family sites and commercial sites. It operates western Canada and the US. The company also develops, owns and manages commercial income properties, as well as four golf courses. Its web site is here Melcor.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF). This was one of the stocks on Mike Higgs' list of good dividend growth stocks. So I looked into it and bought it. I bought this stock first in 2008 and then some more in 2009. It is a little followed real estate company from Western Canada.
When I look at insider trading, I find insider selling at $5.3M and no insider buying. There is insider ownership, the most notable is that of the Chairman who owns shares worth around $35.5M. There is some other insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $1.2M, an officer having shares worth around $2.0M and a director with shares worth around $2.7M.
For 2013 the outstanding shares were increased by 547,000 for stock options with a book value of $7.8M. This number of shares was worth $11M at the end of 2013. This number of shares is also 1.8% of the outstanding shares. I looked at the increase in outstanding shares for 2010 to 2012 and they were all under 1%.
When I look at the increase in the number of shares for stock options for 2013, I think that an increase of 1.8% is rather high. Most companies increase their outstanding shares for stock options at a lower percentage of the outstanding shares. Take TransCanada Corp which I recently reviewed where the share option book value was $80M, a much higher value than for this stock. However, the increase in actual shares for TransCanada Corp only was at 0.3% of the outstanding shares of the company.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.23, 6.07 and 6.79. The current P/E Ratio is 10.17 based on a stock price of $21.56 and a 2014 EPS estimate of $2.12. This stock test suggests that the stock is rather high. However, the P/E Ratios on this stock are very low.
I get a Graham Price of $21.56. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.39, 0.61 and 0.78. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.57 based on a stock price of $21.56. This stock test suggests that the stock is in the reasonable price range.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.02. The current P/B Ratio is 0.86 a value just 84% of the 10 year ratio. This is based on a stock price of $21.56 and a BVPS of $25.03. This stock test suggests that the stock is in the reasonable price range. Also, when the P/B Ratio is below 1.00 a stock is generally considered to be cheap.
I get a 5 year median dividend yield of 2.92% and the current dividend yield is 2.32%, a value some 21% lower. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively rather high. However, if you look at historical average and median dividend yields of 2.83% and 2.77%, the current dividend yield is from 16% to 18% lower. This stock test suggests that the stock is in the reasonable price range, but it might be towards to top end of this range.
As far as I can see, there seems to be only one analyst following this stock and the analyst's recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $29.50. This implies a total return of $39.15% with 2.32% from dividends and $36.83% from capital gains.
This company is based on Edmonton and the Edmonton Journal has a positive article on this company and its good showing in 2013. There is a second article in the Edmonton Journal talking about the chairman who says that Melcor is a public company with a family-company flavor.
This is a small real estate company from Western Canada. It is a rather risky stock to own although I have done just fine on it. You would buy it for diversification. See my spreadsheet at mrd.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, April 04, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This company is primarily engaged in the acquisition of land for development and sale of residential communities, multi-family sites and commercial sites. It operates western Canada and the US. The company also develops, owns and manages commercial income properties, as well as four golf courses. Its web site is here Melcor.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, April 4, 2014
Melcor Developments Inc.
I own this stock of Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF). This was one of the stocks on Mike Higgs' list of good dividend growth stocks. So I looked into it and bought it. I bought this stock first in 2008 and then some more in 2009.
This is a real estate company that pays dividends twice a year. You really do not know what the dividends will be until they are declared. In most years the dividends go up, but sometimes they also go down. The company has also paid special dividends. Dividends have grown at the rate of 3.6% and 16.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The last dividend decrease was in 2008, when the dividends decreased some 40% between 2008 and 2009. The most recent increase was in 2013 and it was for 8.7%. The company also paid a special dividend in 2013 that was equal to the full year's dividend. The dividend yield on this stock is moderate with the current dividend at 2.3% and the 5 year median dividend yield at 2.9%.
The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS is 23.7% and for CFPS is 52.6%. The DPR for 2013 was at 33% for EPS and 62% for CFPS. This brings up another point in that the EPS has been higher than the CFPS over the past 3 years. Companies that have higher EPS than CFPS tend to not do as well as companies that have higher CFPS than EPS. (This is a tendency not an absolute.)
I have earned a 14.89% per year total return on this company with 11.84% from capital gains and 3.05% from dividends. The 5 and 10 years total returns on this stock is at 17.17% and 19.83% per year with 13.61% and 15.51% per year from capital gains and 3.56% and 4.33% per year from dividends.
Outstanding shares have basically not changed over the past 5 and 10 years. The outstanding shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to buy backs. Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow have all increased nicely over the past 5 and 10 years.
Revenue per Share is up by 22 % and 14.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages, they are good, but not quite so good at 8.3% and 11.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is because exactly 5 and 10 years ago, the company hits lows in revenues.
The EPS is up by 18.4% and 17.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Here again the 5 year running averages show lower increases at 9.5% and 16.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Cash Flow per Share is up by 27.1% and 8.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running averages over the past 5 years is lower at 7.94% per year increase.
The return on equity has been above 10% over the past 5 and 10 years. The ROE for 2013 is at 12.8% and the 5 year median is at 15.1%. The ROE on comprehensive income is similar with the ROE for 2013 at 13.6% and the 5 year median at 13.6%.
The Liquidity Ratio is very good at 3.18 and with a 5 year median at 3.18. The Debt Ratio is also very good at 1.80 and with a 5 year median at 1.86. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are typical for a real estate company at 2.25 and 1.25.
Although this is a small company and not followed by many analysts, I have been pleased with my investment in this company. I do not currently hold that much of this stock. See my spreadsheet at mrd.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, April 7, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This company is primarily engaged in the acquisition of land for development and sale of residential communities, multi-family sites and commercial sites. It operates western Canada and the US. The company also develops, owns and manages commercial income properties, as well as four golf courses. Its web site is here Melcor.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This is a real estate company that pays dividends twice a year. You really do not know what the dividends will be until they are declared. In most years the dividends go up, but sometimes they also go down. The company has also paid special dividends. Dividends have grown at the rate of 3.6% and 16.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The last dividend decrease was in 2008, when the dividends decreased some 40% between 2008 and 2009. The most recent increase was in 2013 and it was for 8.7%. The company also paid a special dividend in 2013 that was equal to the full year's dividend. The dividend yield on this stock is moderate with the current dividend at 2.3% and the 5 year median dividend yield at 2.9%.
The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS is 23.7% and for CFPS is 52.6%. The DPR for 2013 was at 33% for EPS and 62% for CFPS. This brings up another point in that the EPS has been higher than the CFPS over the past 3 years. Companies that have higher EPS than CFPS tend to not do as well as companies that have higher CFPS than EPS. (This is a tendency not an absolute.)
I have earned a 14.89% per year total return on this company with 11.84% from capital gains and 3.05% from dividends. The 5 and 10 years total returns on this stock is at 17.17% and 19.83% per year with 13.61% and 15.51% per year from capital gains and 3.56% and 4.33% per year from dividends.
Outstanding shares have basically not changed over the past 5 and 10 years. The outstanding shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to buy backs. Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow have all increased nicely over the past 5 and 10 years.
Revenue per Share is up by 22 % and 14.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages, they are good, but not quite so good at 8.3% and 11.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is because exactly 5 and 10 years ago, the company hits lows in revenues.
The EPS is up by 18.4% and 17.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Here again the 5 year running averages show lower increases at 9.5% and 16.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Cash Flow per Share is up by 27.1% and 8.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running averages over the past 5 years is lower at 7.94% per year increase.
The return on equity has been above 10% over the past 5 and 10 years. The ROE for 2013 is at 12.8% and the 5 year median is at 15.1%. The ROE on comprehensive income is similar with the ROE for 2013 at 13.6% and the 5 year median at 13.6%.
The Liquidity Ratio is very good at 3.18 and with a 5 year median at 3.18. The Debt Ratio is also very good at 1.80 and with a 5 year median at 1.86. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are typical for a real estate company at 2.25 and 1.25.
Although this is a small company and not followed by many analysts, I have been pleased with my investment in this company. I do not currently hold that much of this stock. See my spreadsheet at mrd.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, April 7, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This company is primarily engaged in the acquisition of land for development and sale of residential communities, multi-family sites and commercial sites. It operates western Canada and the US. The company also develops, owns and manages commercial income properties, as well as four golf courses. Its web site is here Melcor.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, April 3, 2014
BCE Inc. 2
I own this stock of BCE Inc. (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE). This is one of first stocks I bought, which was in 1982. At that time is was called an orphan and widow stock. It is not easy to figure out what I have earned on this stock because it has spun off shares for Nortel and Bell Aliant. The annoying thing with their spin offs is you always end up with an odd number of shares.
When I look at insider trading report, I find $21.5M of insider selling and $20.4M of net insider selling with $1.2M of insider buying. Insiders not only have stock options, but also other stock option type vehicles called Performance-based Restricted Share Units, Restricted Share Units and Deferred Share Units.
There is some insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $2.3M, the CFO having shares worth around $0.3M and a director having shares worth around $1M. In 2013 outstanding shares were increase by 421,000 shares with a book value of $14M and this number of shares being worth $19.4M at the end of 2013. In 2012 outstanding shares were increased by 1.3M with a book value of $43M and this number of shares being worth some $55.3M at the end of 2012.
Although I must admit that taken together the increase in outstanding shares for 2013 and 2012 total less than one quarter of one percent of the company's market cap, however, the value of these shares do total up to some serious money.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.64, 12.47 and 13.74. The current P/E Ratio is 15.20 based on a stock price of $47.89 and 2014 earnings estimate of $3.15. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.
I get a Graham Price of $32.57. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.04, 1.21 and 1.32. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.47 based on a stock price $47.89. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.03 and a current P/B Ratio of 3.20. The current P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $47.89 and a BVPS of $14.97. The current P/B Ratio is some 58% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratios. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.
I get a 5 year median dividend yield of 5.31%. The current dividend yield is 5.16%, a higher value but only higher by 3%. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable. I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.38% and the current dividend yield is only 4% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $48.40. This implies a total return of 6.22% with 5.16% from dividends and 1.06% from capital gains. For a Buy recommendation, the 12 month stock price consensus does not give much in the way of a total return, especially from capital gains.
A Motley Fool article by Benjamin Sinclair talks about the telecoms being a good investment currently, but things could change. The blogger called The Dividend Engineer gives his view of this stock. The blogger Sunny does not like BCE and she explains why. Sunny always has a unique way to view investing. The blogger at How to Invest Online also has a unique point of view on stocks.
By a number of standard tests the stock price is rather high. However, using the 5 year median dividend yield and an historical median dividend yield, the stock price is in the reasonable range for price. I think that there might be volatility in the telecoms market because the government is pushing for better pricing. It is hard to see how this will end. Therefore you have to wonder if cost and rewards are lining up for this stock. See my spreadsheet at bce.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, April 02, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
BCE is Canada's largest communications company, providing the most comprehensive and innovative suite of communication services to residential and business customers in Canada. Operating under the Bell and Bell Aliant brands, the Company's services include Bell Home phone local and long distance services, Bell Mobility, Virgin Mobile and Solo Mobile wireless, high-speed Bell Internet, Bell TV direct-to-home satellite and VDSL television, IP-broadband services and information and communications technology (ICT) services. Its web site is here BCE.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading report, I find $21.5M of insider selling and $20.4M of net insider selling with $1.2M of insider buying. Insiders not only have stock options, but also other stock option type vehicles called Performance-based Restricted Share Units, Restricted Share Units and Deferred Share Units.
There is some insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $2.3M, the CFO having shares worth around $0.3M and a director having shares worth around $1M. In 2013 outstanding shares were increase by 421,000 shares with a book value of $14M and this number of shares being worth $19.4M at the end of 2013. In 2012 outstanding shares were increased by 1.3M with a book value of $43M and this number of shares being worth some $55.3M at the end of 2012.
Although I must admit that taken together the increase in outstanding shares for 2013 and 2012 total less than one quarter of one percent of the company's market cap, however, the value of these shares do total up to some serious money.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.64, 12.47 and 13.74. The current P/E Ratio is 15.20 based on a stock price of $47.89 and 2014 earnings estimate of $3.15. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.
I get a Graham Price of $32.57. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.04, 1.21 and 1.32. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.47 based on a stock price $47.89. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.03 and a current P/B Ratio of 3.20. The current P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $47.89 and a BVPS of $14.97. The current P/B Ratio is some 58% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratios. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.
I get a 5 year median dividend yield of 5.31%. The current dividend yield is 5.16%, a higher value but only higher by 3%. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable. I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.38% and the current dividend yield is only 4% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $48.40. This implies a total return of 6.22% with 5.16% from dividends and 1.06% from capital gains. For a Buy recommendation, the 12 month stock price consensus does not give much in the way of a total return, especially from capital gains.
A Motley Fool article by Benjamin Sinclair talks about the telecoms being a good investment currently, but things could change. The blogger called The Dividend Engineer gives his view of this stock. The blogger Sunny does not like BCE and she explains why. Sunny always has a unique way to view investing. The blogger at How to Invest Online also has a unique point of view on stocks.
By a number of standard tests the stock price is rather high. However, using the 5 year median dividend yield and an historical median dividend yield, the stock price is in the reasonable range for price. I think that there might be volatility in the telecoms market because the government is pushing for better pricing. It is hard to see how this will end. Therefore you have to wonder if cost and rewards are lining up for this stock. See my spreadsheet at bce.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, April 02, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
BCE is Canada's largest communications company, providing the most comprehensive and innovative suite of communication services to residential and business customers in Canada. Operating under the Bell and Bell Aliant brands, the Company's services include Bell Home phone local and long distance services, Bell Mobility, Virgin Mobile and Solo Mobile wireless, high-speed Bell Internet, Bell TV direct-to-home satellite and VDSL television, IP-broadband services and information and communications technology (ICT) services. Its web site is here BCE.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
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