I never owned this stock (TSX-ACO.X). This is a Canadian Utility stock. It is the sort of stock that is for conservative investors and a great one to start off a dividend paying stock portfolio. The reason I do not own this particular one is that I have other conservative utility stock that have the same dividend characteristics.
Of course, the reason I think it is a good stock, is that my present game plan is to own dividend paying stock and collect my dividends until times improve. We are in a recession and it is hard to know how long it will last. We certain have problems.
Take Greece for an example. I do not see how lending more money to a country drowning in debt is going to help. I think we need an orderly way for counties to go bankrupt or default on their sovereign bonds. I think that the sooner Greece does this, the better for all concern. However, who am I to say what Greece should do. But I can see that Greece is a problem and we do not yet know the outcome of their problems.
For this particular company, I find that there has been a bit insider buying over the past year and some $1.3M insider selling. Of course, this being a $2B company, insider selling is a small percentage of 1% of the outstanding shares. Also, ATCO Ltd has been buying back Class I non-voting shares for cancellation. However, there is no real useful information in the Insider Trading report.
When I look at the 5 year low median P/E ratio, I get one of 10 and the 5 year high median P/E ratio is 14.6. This means that the current P/E ratio of 10.6 is a good one, both on a relative and an absolute basis. This P/E ratio is based on earnings estimates. I get a Graham Price of $62.22. The current stock price of $50.19 is some 24% below this. This shows a good current price, however, the stock price on this stock is often below the Graham Price.
When I look at the Price/Book Value Ratio, I get a current one of 1.39 and a 10 year average of 1.55. The current one is just over 90% lower than the 10 year average. This shows a good, but not great price for this stock. When I look at the dividend yield, I get a current one of 2.1%. The 5 year average is 2.1%. There is a 10 year average low of 2.7%. So, this shows a reasonable stock price.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I see a lot of Hold recommendations, a few Buy, one Strong Buy, and one Sell recommendations. The consensus recommendations would be a Hold. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) It is not that people dislike this company, but most of the Hold recommendations come with a 12 month stock price not much different from the current price.
No one says anything bad about this company. No one sees any reason why the company will not increase their dividends again in 2012. However, since the dividend yield is just 2% on this utility, the dividend rate is lower than is general for most Canadian utility stocks. Analysts just seem to feel that you will not make much more from this stock than dividend over the next 12 months.
ATCO LTD. is a management holding company with operating subsidiaries in electric and natural gas utility operations, independent power operations, production, storage, processing, gathering, delivery of natural gas, technical facilities management for the industrial, defense and transportation sectors, the manufacture, sale and leasing of industrial shelters and industrial noise abatement technologies. ATCO has a 52% stake in Canadian Utilities Ltd. The company utilizes a dual share structure and it is effectively controlled by R.D. Southern. Ronald D. Southern owns 83%. The Southern family of Alberta made its wealth by doing a fine job of managing the company and its subsidiaries. Company has two classes of shares voting and non-voting. Its web site is here ATCO. See my spreadsheet at aco.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Monday, August 30, 2010
ATCO Ltd
I never owned this stock (TSX-ACO.X). This is a Canadian Utility stock. It is the sort of stock that is for conservative investors and a great one to start off a dividend paying stock portfolio. The reason I do not own this particular one is that I have other conservative utility stock that have the same dividend characteristics. However, this is still a very good utility stock.
You would buy this stock for growth and dividend income. If you held this stock, using average prices over the last 5 and 10 years, your total return would be 11.5% and 10% per year, respectively. You are getting about 2% of your returns are in dividends each year. Considering that we are in a recession, the 5 year return is very good. This is the value of utility stocks. They tend to be very stable.
This stock increases their dividends each year and for the past 5 and 10 years, the growth in dividends is at 7.4% and 9.6% per year, respectively. This stock is, of course on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices). This is a good example of a stock on these lists that deserves to be there.
For this stock, the last 5 and 10 year growth in revenues and cash flow has not been that good. In fact there really hasn’t been much growth in revenues. The growth in cash flow has been better. These are the lowest growth figures for this stock. However, the dividends and their yearly growth are quite safe as the company pays out a low and very sustainable percentage of the cash flow.
The next thing to talk about is the great balance sheet. This stock’s Liquidity and Asset/Liability Ratios are consistently high. As of the end of 2009, they were 2.29 and 1.68 respectively. For these ratios, you want to see them at 1.50 or above. Perhaps the last thing to talk about is the Return on Equity. The 5 year average ROE for 2009 was 14.3% and the ROE for 2009 was 14.1%. The ROE for the first half of this year is again good at 14.4%. The Leverage (Asset/Book Value) is a little high at over 5, but most utilities carry debt and this is not unusual.
In summary, this is a great utility stock. For a utility stock, the yield is a little low, but it is a well managed company. The other thing to mention is the dual stock under this company. The ACO.X stock is a non-voting stock. The Southern family effectively controls this stock.
ATCO LTD. is a management holding company with operating subsidiaries in electric and natural gas utility operations, independent power operations, production, storage, processing, gathering, delivery of natural gas, technical facilities management for the industrial, defense and transportation sectors, the manufacture, sale and leasing of industrial shelters and industrial noise abatement technologies. ATCO has a 52% stake in Canadian Utilities Ltd. The company utilizes a dual share structure and it is effectively controlled by R.D. Southern. Ronald D. Southern owns 83%. The Southern family of Alberta made its wealth by doing a fine job of managing the company and its subsidiaries. Company has two classes of shares voting and non-voting. Its web site is here ATCO. See my spreadsheet at aco.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
You would buy this stock for growth and dividend income. If you held this stock, using average prices over the last 5 and 10 years, your total return would be 11.5% and 10% per year, respectively. You are getting about 2% of your returns are in dividends each year. Considering that we are in a recession, the 5 year return is very good. This is the value of utility stocks. They tend to be very stable.
This stock increases their dividends each year and for the past 5 and 10 years, the growth in dividends is at 7.4% and 9.6% per year, respectively. This stock is, of course on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices). This is a good example of a stock on these lists that deserves to be there.
For this stock, the last 5 and 10 year growth in revenues and cash flow has not been that good. In fact there really hasn’t been much growth in revenues. The growth in cash flow has been better. These are the lowest growth figures for this stock. However, the dividends and their yearly growth are quite safe as the company pays out a low and very sustainable percentage of the cash flow.
The next thing to talk about is the great balance sheet. This stock’s Liquidity and Asset/Liability Ratios are consistently high. As of the end of 2009, they were 2.29 and 1.68 respectively. For these ratios, you want to see them at 1.50 or above. Perhaps the last thing to talk about is the Return on Equity. The 5 year average ROE for 2009 was 14.3% and the ROE for 2009 was 14.1%. The ROE for the first half of this year is again good at 14.4%. The Leverage (Asset/Book Value) is a little high at over 5, but most utilities carry debt and this is not unusual.
In summary, this is a great utility stock. For a utility stock, the yield is a little low, but it is a well managed company. The other thing to mention is the dual stock under this company. The ACO.X stock is a non-voting stock. The Southern family effectively controls this stock.
ATCO LTD. is a management holding company with operating subsidiaries in electric and natural gas utility operations, independent power operations, production, storage, processing, gathering, delivery of natural gas, technical facilities management for the industrial, defense and transportation sectors, the manufacture, sale and leasing of industrial shelters and industrial noise abatement technologies. ATCO has a 52% stake in Canadian Utilities Ltd. The company utilizes a dual share structure and it is effectively controlled by R.D. Southern. Ronald D. Southern owns 83%. The Southern family of Alberta made its wealth by doing a fine job of managing the company and its subsidiaries. Company has two classes of shares voting and non-voting. Its web site is here ATCO. See my spreadsheet at aco.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Astral Media Inc 2
I never owned this stock (TSX-ACM.A). This is a Canadian Media company that people buy for growth and some dividend income. They have raised their dividends in the past, but generally infrequently and they keep it to a low percentage of their cash flow. If you want to diversity your portfolio into consumer type stock, this stock may be what you are looking for.
Over the past year, there has been some $10M insider selling. This is about ½ of 1% of the outstanding shares. Except for directors, insiders have more stock options than actual shares in the company. Not what I like to see, but it is quite common nowadays.
The 5 year low median P/E ratio is 12.9 and the 5 year high median P/E ratio is 16.6. This puts the current P/E ratio at 12.2 in a good light. Also, I get a current Graham Price of $39.20, so the current stock price of $35.91 looks good as it over 8% lower. The other thing pointing to a good current price is Price/Book Value Ratio. The 10 year average is 1.88 and the current P/B ratio is over 80% lower at 1.55. The last item to look at, which also shows a good current stock price is the dividend yield. The current yield of 1.4% is greater than the 5 year average of 1.2% and the 10 year average low, also at 1.2%.
There are a number of analysts following this stock. It is felt that the company has strong management and a strong balance. When I look at recommendations, I find lots of Strong Buy and lots of Hold, and a few Buy recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
Although this stock is not on the dividend lists that I follow, it does have a habit of raising their dividends as they can afford to do so. The reason they are not on dividend lists is because they do not consistently raise their dividends. This does stop this stock from being recognized by analysts as a good dividend paying stock. If you want to diversity into any consumer type stocks, you might want to consider this one as the price is currently very good on a number of measures.
Astral Media is a leading Canadian media company, reaching people through a combination of highly targeted media properties in television, radio, outdoor advertising, and interactive media. The company operates some 20 TV channels and 83 ratio stations across 8 provinces and 100 websites. They focus on specialty and pay television radio, outdoor advertising and interactive media. Ownership: 63% by Greenberg family. Substantial shares owned by Paul Bronfman. Its web site is here Astral Media. See my spreadsheet at acm.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Over the past year, there has been some $10M insider selling. This is about ½ of 1% of the outstanding shares. Except for directors, insiders have more stock options than actual shares in the company. Not what I like to see, but it is quite common nowadays.
The 5 year low median P/E ratio is 12.9 and the 5 year high median P/E ratio is 16.6. This puts the current P/E ratio at 12.2 in a good light. Also, I get a current Graham Price of $39.20, so the current stock price of $35.91 looks good as it over 8% lower. The other thing pointing to a good current price is Price/Book Value Ratio. The 10 year average is 1.88 and the current P/B ratio is over 80% lower at 1.55. The last item to look at, which also shows a good current stock price is the dividend yield. The current yield of 1.4% is greater than the 5 year average of 1.2% and the 10 year average low, also at 1.2%.
There are a number of analysts following this stock. It is felt that the company has strong management and a strong balance. When I look at recommendations, I find lots of Strong Buy and lots of Hold, and a few Buy recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
Although this stock is not on the dividend lists that I follow, it does have a habit of raising their dividends as they can afford to do so. The reason they are not on dividend lists is because they do not consistently raise their dividends. This does stop this stock from being recognized by analysts as a good dividend paying stock. If you want to diversity into any consumer type stocks, you might want to consider this one as the price is currently very good on a number of measures.
Astral Media is a leading Canadian media company, reaching people through a combination of highly targeted media properties in television, radio, outdoor advertising, and interactive media. The company operates some 20 TV channels and 83 ratio stations across 8 provinces and 100 websites. They focus on specialty and pay television radio, outdoor advertising and interactive media. Ownership: 63% by Greenberg family. Substantial shares owned by Paul Bronfman. Its web site is here Astral Media. See my spreadsheet at acm.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Astral Media Inc
I never owned this stock (TSX-ACM.A). This is a Canadian Media company that people buy for growth and some dividend income. They have raised their dividends in the past, but generally infrequently and they keep it to a low percentage of their cash flow. Their dividend growth is much better over the last 5 years at 27% average per year, compared to the last 10 years, which is at an average of 13% per year.
However, this stock has not raised their dividends since 2008 and they have not announced any increases for this financial year. (The company’s financial year end at 31 August each year.) Their yield is low, currently at 1.4% and has a 5 year average yield of just 1.2%. Dividend increases are substantial when they occur, in the 25% to 33% range.
In total returns, you can expect between 8% and 10% per year on a long term average. The 10 year average total return on this stock is just over 10%. This is a realistic and normal return for dividend paying stocks. The total returns on this stock tend to have more growth than dividends, as the dividends only make up about 1.2% of the annual return. You want to have a mix in your dividend portfolio of stocks that pay higher dividends, but increase them at lower levels and stock that pay lower dividends and give bigger increases. Please note that the 5 year total return is much lower, but this is common in today’s market.
This stock has had good growth in revenues and cash flows. The balance sheet is quite strong with the Asset/Liability Ratio current at 2.17 and an average of 2.67 over the last 5 years. The Liquidity ratio is a bit lower at 1.60 current and with a 5 year average of 1.53. The Return on Equity is also very good at 20.7% for last year, a current one at 14.9% and a 5 year average of 14.8%. The Leverage ratio is generally under 2.00, with a current one of 1.86 and this is also good. Leverage Ratio is Assets over Book Value.
I am following this stock, as it is one recommended by MPL Communications. I do not have it as I already have other consumer stock with the same dividend characteristics. However, I follow other stock because you never know when one you have can falter and you need a replacement.
Astral Media is a leading Canadian media company, reaching people through a combination of highly targeted media properties in television, radio, outdoor advertising, and interactive media. The company operates some 20 TV channels and 83 ratio stations across 8 provinces and 100 websites. They focus on specialty and pay television radio, outdoor advertising and interactive media. Ownership: 63% by Greenberg family. Substantial shares owned by Paul Bronfman. Its web site is here Astral Media. See my spreadsheet at acm.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
However, this stock has not raised their dividends since 2008 and they have not announced any increases for this financial year. (The company’s financial year end at 31 August each year.) Their yield is low, currently at 1.4% and has a 5 year average yield of just 1.2%. Dividend increases are substantial when they occur, in the 25% to 33% range.
In total returns, you can expect between 8% and 10% per year on a long term average. The 10 year average total return on this stock is just over 10%. This is a realistic and normal return for dividend paying stocks. The total returns on this stock tend to have more growth than dividends, as the dividends only make up about 1.2% of the annual return. You want to have a mix in your dividend portfolio of stocks that pay higher dividends, but increase them at lower levels and stock that pay lower dividends and give bigger increases. Please note that the 5 year total return is much lower, but this is common in today’s market.
This stock has had good growth in revenues and cash flows. The balance sheet is quite strong with the Asset/Liability Ratio current at 2.17 and an average of 2.67 over the last 5 years. The Liquidity ratio is a bit lower at 1.60 current and with a 5 year average of 1.53. The Return on Equity is also very good at 20.7% for last year, a current one at 14.9% and a 5 year average of 14.8%. The Leverage ratio is generally under 2.00, with a current one of 1.86 and this is also good. Leverage Ratio is Assets over Book Value.
I am following this stock, as it is one recommended by MPL Communications. I do not have it as I already have other consumer stock with the same dividend characteristics. However, I follow other stock because you never know when one you have can falter and you need a replacement.
Astral Media is a leading Canadian media company, reaching people through a combination of highly targeted media properties in television, radio, outdoor advertising, and interactive media. The company operates some 20 TV channels and 83 ratio stations across 8 provinces and 100 websites. They focus on specialty and pay television radio, outdoor advertising and interactive media. Ownership: 63% by Greenberg family. Substantial shares owned by Paul Bronfman. Its web site is here Astral Media. See my spreadsheet at acm.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Arc Energy Trust 2
Yesterday, I talked about this oil and gas stock (TSX-AET.UN). It is a Canadian oil and gas stock, which pays distributions based on commodity prices. It pays good dividends over the long haul, but dividends do fluctuate according to commodity prices. It will stop being an income trust in 2011. Dividends will continue to fluctuate based on commodity prices. It is one of the income trust companies that is well thought of.
When I look at the P/E ratio, I get a 5 year low median ratio of 8.8 and a 5 year high median ratio of 13.6. The current P/E ratio, based on estimated earnings is 16, which is rather high for this stock. This is because earnings are expected to be lower this year than in the past. However, the earnings are higher at $1.18 than last year’s earnings that were $.96.
I get a Graham Price of $16.65 for 2010 and the current price is higher than this by just over 12%. For most years in the past, the stock price has been at or below the Graham Price at some time. The current Price/Book Value ratio is 1.83 and the 10 year average is 2.04. The current P/B ratio is about 90% of the 10 year and this shows a good, but not great current stock price.
The current dividend yield at 6.3% is not a bad yield, but the 5 year average is 9.7%. However, last year this stock paid out some 61% of its cash flow. This year it is estimated to payout 46% of its cash flow. It might be expected that the company may yet want to pay out a smaller percentage of the cash flow. Corporations cannot afford to payout as high a percentage of its cash flow that unit trust companies can.
The best thing to say about this company is that there is about $1.3M of insider buying over the past year, with most of the buying by officers of this company. This is very different from a lot of other companies I have been reviewing lately.
When I look at what the analysts are saying, I find that there are lots of Strong Buy recommendations, some Buy recommendations and a very few Hold recommendations. The consensus would be a Strong Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) Even the analysts with the Hold recommendations like the company, but it is just felt that the price will go lower before picking up again. The difference between the Buy and Strong Buy recommendations is the expected stock price within the next 12 months. This ranges from $22 to $24.
I can see why this stock is liked. Most analysts consider this company to be well managed. It has recently moved into getting gas from the Montney Shale formation. You certainly cannot complain about the current dividend yield of over 6%. The ratios that I look at show that the while the stock is not expensive, neither is it particularly cheap. It is a very positive sign that there is insider buying.
Financial Aid, a site about dividends, stocks and splits, tells why Mason Granger, a portfolio manager with Sentry Select Capital Corp, likes this stock. At Alacra Pulse a report by Analyst by Richard Wyman of Canaccord Adams is highlighted.
Arc Energy Trust acquires and develops long-life low declining oil and gas properties in Western Canada. Its web site is here Arc Energy. See my spreadsheet at aet.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
When I look at the P/E ratio, I get a 5 year low median ratio of 8.8 and a 5 year high median ratio of 13.6. The current P/E ratio, based on estimated earnings is 16, which is rather high for this stock. This is because earnings are expected to be lower this year than in the past. However, the earnings are higher at $1.18 than last year’s earnings that were $.96.
I get a Graham Price of $16.65 for 2010 and the current price is higher than this by just over 12%. For most years in the past, the stock price has been at or below the Graham Price at some time. The current Price/Book Value ratio is 1.83 and the 10 year average is 2.04. The current P/B ratio is about 90% of the 10 year and this shows a good, but not great current stock price.
The current dividend yield at 6.3% is not a bad yield, but the 5 year average is 9.7%. However, last year this stock paid out some 61% of its cash flow. This year it is estimated to payout 46% of its cash flow. It might be expected that the company may yet want to pay out a smaller percentage of the cash flow. Corporations cannot afford to payout as high a percentage of its cash flow that unit trust companies can.
The best thing to say about this company is that there is about $1.3M of insider buying over the past year, with most of the buying by officers of this company. This is very different from a lot of other companies I have been reviewing lately.
When I look at what the analysts are saying, I find that there are lots of Strong Buy recommendations, some Buy recommendations and a very few Hold recommendations. The consensus would be a Strong Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) Even the analysts with the Hold recommendations like the company, but it is just felt that the price will go lower before picking up again. The difference between the Buy and Strong Buy recommendations is the expected stock price within the next 12 months. This ranges from $22 to $24.
I can see why this stock is liked. Most analysts consider this company to be well managed. It has recently moved into getting gas from the Montney Shale formation. You certainly cannot complain about the current dividend yield of over 6%. The ratios that I look at show that the while the stock is not expensive, neither is it particularly cheap. It is a very positive sign that there is insider buying.
Financial Aid, a site about dividends, stocks and splits, tells why Mason Granger, a portfolio manager with Sentry Select Capital Corp, likes this stock. At Alacra Pulse a report by Analyst by Richard Wyman of Canaccord Adams is highlighted.
Arc Energy Trust acquires and develops long-life low declining oil and gas properties in Western Canada. Its web site is here Arc Energy. See my spreadsheet at aet.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Arc Energy Trust
I never owned this stock (TSX-AET.UN. It is a Canadian oil and gas stock, which pays distributions based on commodity prices. This sort of stock can pay very good dividends when the prices of commodities are high. The problem is that dividends will fluctuate. If you cannot take a fluctuating income, this may not be a stock for you. However, if you can live with the fluctuations, you can do very well in dividend income.
Last year was a decidedly bad year for this company. Most of the growth figures are low as the company suffered a 43% decline in revenues and a 52% decline in cash flow. Distributions also suffered the same decline as the cash flow. Although, this company has are some very good growth figures. The best growth is in total returns, which for the past 5 and 10 years, are 14% and 26% per year, respectively. The portion of this return that is dividends is 12% and 17.7% per year for these periods, respectively.
The book value growth is so so, but the Return on Equity, expect for 2009 has been good. The 5 year average is 19.6% a very good figure indeed. When looking at the Liquidity Ratio, it is usually low and currently is at 0.93. However, the Asset/Liability Ratio is always strong and is currently at 2.94. This also is very good.
I will look at what the analysts say about this stock tomorrow. At this point, I would like to repeat that it is a good stock for you only if you can stand for the fluctuations in dividends. Also, the number of shares increases each year due to their dividend reinvestment program. This is a program where you can use your dividends to acquire shares. (This is not the only reason for increasing shares, but it is a significant one.)
Arc Energy Trust acquires and develops long-life low declining oil and gas properties in Western Canada. Its web site is here Arc Energy. See my spreadsheet at aet.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Last year was a decidedly bad year for this company. Most of the growth figures are low as the company suffered a 43% decline in revenues and a 52% decline in cash flow. Distributions also suffered the same decline as the cash flow. Although, this company has are some very good growth figures. The best growth is in total returns, which for the past 5 and 10 years, are 14% and 26% per year, respectively. The portion of this return that is dividends is 12% and 17.7% per year for these periods, respectively.
The book value growth is so so, but the Return on Equity, expect for 2009 has been good. The 5 year average is 19.6% a very good figure indeed. When looking at the Liquidity Ratio, it is usually low and currently is at 0.93. However, the Asset/Liability Ratio is always strong and is currently at 2.94. This also is very good.
I will look at what the analysts say about this stock tomorrow. At this point, I would like to repeat that it is a good stock for you only if you can stand for the fluctuations in dividends. Also, the number of shares increases each year due to their dividend reinvestment program. This is a program where you can use your dividends to acquire shares. (This is not the only reason for increasing shares, but it is a significant one.)
Arc Energy Trust acquires and develops long-life low declining oil and gas properties in Western Canada. Its web site is here Arc Energy. See my spreadsheet at aet.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Monday, August 23, 2010
So You Think Bonds Are Safe
Over the week end I was looking at what one of my favorite authors, Niall Ferguson, was saying recently and came across this chart on Sovereign Debt. This is just another term for government bonds. In this chart, the ex ante is what people expected to receive in their investment in a sovereign bond. The ex post is what they received. This chart covers a number of time periods. The usual is an unhappy story. I do not know why people think government bonds are safe.
Currently, most countries are suffering from massive debt loads. Ferguson feels that, although there are 6 possible ways out from under this debt load, there are currently only 3 available at present. See ways out from government debt. He thinks most will inflate their way out or default. Currently, he thinks that the sooner Greece defaults, the better things will be.
For the full video speech, see The Peterson Institute for International Economics site. Neill Ferguson is always a very interesting speaker. You might want to skip about the first 10 minutes, as it is an introduction to Neill Ferguson’s speech. There is also a separate video of the Q and A period.
One thing he mentions is a book called “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. The point being is that it is never different this time. A number of European countries have gone bankrupt before and they will probably do so again (think Spain and Greece). For an interesting interview with Carmen Reinhart by the Financial Times, see Princeton University Press site.
Of course, there is also Richard Koo, the chief economist from Nomura Research Institute, who testified before Congress’ Committee on Financial Services. He thinks it is different this time. See his speech on new economic thinking.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Currently, most countries are suffering from massive debt loads. Ferguson feels that, although there are 6 possible ways out from under this debt load, there are currently only 3 available at present. See ways out from government debt. He thinks most will inflate their way out or default. Currently, he thinks that the sooner Greece defaults, the better things will be.
For the full video speech, see The Peterson Institute for International Economics site. Neill Ferguson is always a very interesting speaker. You might want to skip about the first 10 minutes, as it is an introduction to Neill Ferguson’s speech. There is also a separate video of the Q and A period.
One thing he mentions is a book called “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. The point being is that it is never different this time. A number of European countries have gone bankrupt before and they will probably do so again (think Spain and Greece). For an interesting interview with Carmen Reinhart by the Financial Times, see Princeton University Press site.
Of course, there is also Richard Koo, the chief economist from Nomura Research Institute, who testified before Congress’ Committee on Financial Services. He thinks it is different this time. See his speech on new economic thinking.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Andrew Peller Ltd 2
I owned this stock (TSX-ADW.A) at one time. I held it from October 1996 to August 2000. I sold it because the company was having some difficulties and I did not think there would be a dividend increase anytime soon. In any event, the dividends were flat between 1998 and 2006. They increased dividends in 2007, 2008 and 2009 and then they have again been flat.
In looking at the insider trading report, I find minimal insider selling (a few thousand dollars). I also find that insiders are keeping their stock grants. This is a positive thing. There is no insider buying. Sometimes this report does tell you something. In this case, it was something positive, such as insider retaining their stock grants. This is one a good reason to always look at this report.
Is the stock price good? First, I looked at the P/E ratio, which is currently at 13 based on last 12 months of earnings. This is not a bad P/E, but an absolutely good P/E is 10 or below. The 5 year median low P/E is 11 and the 5 year median high P/E is 15. So I find that the current one of 13 is not especially high or low. I get Graham Price of $11.02. This is 21% above the current stock price of $8.69, so this points to a good current price.
The 10 year average Price/Book Value ratio is 1.25 and the current one is 1.11; about 90% of 10 year one. This shows a relatively good price, but a very good price would be if the current P/B ratio were 80% of the 10 year one. The last thing is the dividend yield. The current one is 3.8% and the 5 year average is 3.1%. This also shows a relatively good stock price, but great one would be closer to 5%, where the stock has been before.
I can find no analysts that follow this stock. However, Just Drinks mentions this company. I found one review of this stock from 2000 to 2010 at Value Investigator.
Andrew Peller Limited (the “Company”) is a leading producer and marketer of quality wines in Canada. With wineries in British Columbia, Ontario and Nova Scotia, the Company markets wines produced from grapes grown in Ontario’s Niagara Peninsula, British Columbia’s Okanagan and Similkameen Valleys and vineyards around the world. They also market craft beer under the Granville Island brand. The Company produces and markets consumer-made wine kit products through Winexpert and Vineco International Products. The Company’s products are sold predominantly in Canada. Class A shares are non-voting. Its web site is here Peller. See my spreadsheet at adw.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
In looking at the insider trading report, I find minimal insider selling (a few thousand dollars). I also find that insiders are keeping their stock grants. This is a positive thing. There is no insider buying. Sometimes this report does tell you something. In this case, it was something positive, such as insider retaining their stock grants. This is one a good reason to always look at this report.
Is the stock price good? First, I looked at the P/E ratio, which is currently at 13 based on last 12 months of earnings. This is not a bad P/E, but an absolutely good P/E is 10 or below. The 5 year median low P/E is 11 and the 5 year median high P/E is 15. So I find that the current one of 13 is not especially high or low. I get Graham Price of $11.02. This is 21% above the current stock price of $8.69, so this points to a good current price.
The 10 year average Price/Book Value ratio is 1.25 and the current one is 1.11; about 90% of 10 year one. This shows a relatively good price, but a very good price would be if the current P/B ratio were 80% of the 10 year one. The last thing is the dividend yield. The current one is 3.8% and the 5 year average is 3.1%. This also shows a relatively good stock price, but great one would be closer to 5%, where the stock has been before.
I can find no analysts that follow this stock. However, Just Drinks mentions this company. I found one review of this stock from 2000 to 2010 at Value Investigator.
Andrew Peller Limited (the “Company”) is a leading producer and marketer of quality wines in Canada. With wineries in British Columbia, Ontario and Nova Scotia, the Company markets wines produced from grapes grown in Ontario’s Niagara Peninsula, British Columbia’s Okanagan and Similkameen Valleys and vineyards around the world. They also market craft beer under the Granville Island brand. The Company produces and markets consumer-made wine kit products through Winexpert and Vineco International Products. The Company’s products are sold predominantly in Canada. Class A shares are non-voting. Its web site is here Peller. See my spreadsheet at adw.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Andrew Peller Ltd
I owned this stock (TSX-ADW.A) at one time. I held it from October 1996 to August 2000. I sold it because the company was having some difficulties and I did not think there would be a dividend increase anytime soon. I made a return of 5.4% (of which most was in dividend income). In any event, the dividends were flat between 1998 and 2006. They just started to increase their dividends again in 2007. However, dividends have again been flat since March 2009.
Looking dividend growth, the last 5 years has been the best it has ever had with a growth of almost 9% per year. All this growth took place in March 2007 and March 2009. The annual statements are dated in March of each year. Total return over the last 10 years is quite good at almost 12%. However, total return over the last 5 years is at 1.3% per year. This is because the stock price is basically back to where it was in 2004. Dividends account for between 3 and 4% of total returns.
Growth in revenue goes from ok over the past 10 years to good over the past 5 years. There is a problem with cash flow in that when you look at cash flow excluding non cash items, you have a 5 year growth of just 2% a year. Growth in book value is also not something to write home about as it is just over 5 % per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Liquidity Ratio is better for the 1st quarter of 2011 at 1.42 and up from a 5 year average of 1.32. The Asset/Liability has improved from that of last year, as it is now 1.76 rather than 1.49 of last year. I like to see this ratio at 1.50 at minimum. The 5 year average of 1.65 is fine.
I started to follow this stock as a newsletter I like has recommended this stock a number of times. I have no interest in buying it presently, but I will continue to follow it.
Andrew Peller Limited (the “Company”) is a leading producer and marketer of quality wines in Canada. With wineries in British Columbia, Ontario and Nova Scotia, the Company markets wines produced from grapes grown in Ontario’s Niagara Peninsula, British Columbia’s Okanagan and Similkameen Valleys and vineyards around the world. They also market craft beer under the Granville Island brand. The Company produces and markets consumer-made wine kit products through Winexpert and Vineco International Products. The Company’s products are sold predominantly in Canada. Class A shares are non-voting. Its web site is here Peller. See my spreadsheet at adw.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Looking dividend growth, the last 5 years has been the best it has ever had with a growth of almost 9% per year. All this growth took place in March 2007 and March 2009. The annual statements are dated in March of each year. Total return over the last 10 years is quite good at almost 12%. However, total return over the last 5 years is at 1.3% per year. This is because the stock price is basically back to where it was in 2004. Dividends account for between 3 and 4% of total returns.
Growth in revenue goes from ok over the past 10 years to good over the past 5 years. There is a problem with cash flow in that when you look at cash flow excluding non cash items, you have a 5 year growth of just 2% a year. Growth in book value is also not something to write home about as it is just over 5 % per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Liquidity Ratio is better for the 1st quarter of 2011 at 1.42 and up from a 5 year average of 1.32. The Asset/Liability has improved from that of last year, as it is now 1.76 rather than 1.49 of last year. I like to see this ratio at 1.50 at minimum. The 5 year average of 1.65 is fine.
I started to follow this stock as a newsletter I like has recommended this stock a number of times. I have no interest in buying it presently, but I will continue to follow it.
Andrew Peller Limited (the “Company”) is a leading producer and marketer of quality wines in Canada. With wineries in British Columbia, Ontario and Nova Scotia, the Company markets wines produced from grapes grown in Ontario’s Niagara Peninsula, British Columbia’s Okanagan and Similkameen Valleys and vineyards around the world. They also market craft beer under the Granville Island brand. The Company produces and markets consumer-made wine kit products through Winexpert and Vineco International Products. The Company’s products are sold predominantly in Canada. Class A shares are non-voting. Its web site is here Peller. See my spreadsheet at adw.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Alliance Grain Traders Inc 2
I started to follow this company (TSX-AGT) last year, as it was an Income Trust that converted to a corporation. It was one that different people thought would do very well after conversion. The dividends were kept at the rate established when it was an Income Trust. The company used to be called Agtech Income Fund and it converted to a corporation in September 2009.
With depressing regularity, I see that there is insider selling going on under this stock. Over the past year, there has only been insider selling and no insider buying. Insider selling totals $2.6M, but this is about ½ of 1% of the market cap for this stock. Insiders do not even seem to be holding on to stock options granted. This all may be depressing, but it does not tell us much.
Is the stock a good relative price? 5 year average low and high P/E is 10 and 14, so a current P/E of 10 is low, both relatively and absolutely. The current stock is of $30.03 is some 15% below the current Graham Price of $35.29, so this also shows a good stock price.
However, the 5 year average Price/Book Value ratio is 1.47 compared to the current one of 1.63 and this shows a relatively average stock price. The last item is the yield and at 1.8% it is below almost all the Dividend yields prior to this and this shows that the stock price is relatively high. However, dividends have not increased since 2008 and this will partially account for the low dividend yield.
There are not many analysts following this stock. Most ratings are for Strong Buy, with some Buy ratings and one Hold rating. The consensus recommendation would be a Strong Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The analysts I looked at really liked this stock and thought it still could go much higher over the long term. They also mention that they thought it had a strong management team. Another blog called Investing Thesis has also covered this stock.
I am going to keep an eye on this stock. However, at this point, I will wait until the fall to decide what stocks I will purchase for this year.
Alliance Grain Traders Inc through its subsidiaries, Alliance Pulse Processors Inc. ("Alliance") and Arbel Group ("Arbel"), is engaged in the business of sourcing and processing (cleaning, splitting, sorting and bagging) specialty crops, primarily for export markets. Alliance and its subsidiaries in Canada, U.S., Australia and Turkey handle the full range of pulses and specialty crops including lentils, peas, chickpeas, beans and canary seed through six processing plants. The company recent bought the Arbel Group of Mersin, Turkey. Its web site is here Alliance Grain . See my spreadsheet at agt.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
With depressing regularity, I see that there is insider selling going on under this stock. Over the past year, there has only been insider selling and no insider buying. Insider selling totals $2.6M, but this is about ½ of 1% of the market cap for this stock. Insiders do not even seem to be holding on to stock options granted. This all may be depressing, but it does not tell us much.
Is the stock a good relative price? 5 year average low and high P/E is 10 and 14, so a current P/E of 10 is low, both relatively and absolutely. The current stock is of $30.03 is some 15% below the current Graham Price of $35.29, so this also shows a good stock price.
However, the 5 year average Price/Book Value ratio is 1.47 compared to the current one of 1.63 and this shows a relatively average stock price. The last item is the yield and at 1.8% it is below almost all the Dividend yields prior to this and this shows that the stock price is relatively high. However, dividends have not increased since 2008 and this will partially account for the low dividend yield.
There are not many analysts following this stock. Most ratings are for Strong Buy, with some Buy ratings and one Hold rating. The consensus recommendation would be a Strong Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The analysts I looked at really liked this stock and thought it still could go much higher over the long term. They also mention that they thought it had a strong management team. Another blog called Investing Thesis has also covered this stock.
I am going to keep an eye on this stock. However, at this point, I will wait until the fall to decide what stocks I will purchase for this year.
Alliance Grain Traders Inc through its subsidiaries, Alliance Pulse Processors Inc. ("Alliance") and Arbel Group ("Arbel"), is engaged in the business of sourcing and processing (cleaning, splitting, sorting and bagging) specialty crops, primarily for export markets. Alliance and its subsidiaries in Canada, U.S., Australia and Turkey handle the full range of pulses and specialty crops including lentils, peas, chickpeas, beans and canary seed through six processing plants. The company recent bought the Arbel Group of Mersin, Turkey. Its web site is here Alliance Grain . See my spreadsheet at agt.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Alliance Grain Traders Inc
I started to follow this company (TSX-AGT) last year, as it was an Income Trust that converted to a corporation. It was one that different people thought would do very well after conversion. The dividends were kept at the rate established when it was an Income Trust. The company used to be called Agtech Income Fund and it converted to a corporation in September 2009.
Since the time this company converted to a corporation, its dividends have remained level, but the stock price has come up significantly. When it first established as an Income trust the dividend yield was over 7%. When it converted to a corporation in 2009, dividend yield was about 2.8%. The current yield is just 1.8%. However, cash flow for the last 3 months is up significantly, so perhaps this company will restart dividend increases. However, I can find no place where the company says what they intend to do with dividends. It would make this a more interesting investment if they restart dividend increases.
This company, since it went public in 2004, has had great growth in revenues, earnings, total return, cash flows and book value. The lowest 5 year growth is in cash flow with a growth of 16% per year. However, as mentioned above this 2nd quarter of 2010 shows a great growth in cash flows, of over 200%. Probably the best growth in the last 5 years was in earnings and this company’s earnings have grown some 95% per year.
When looking at the Liquidity and Asset/Liability Ratios, I see nothing but a strong balance sheet. The liquidity Ratio for 2009 was 1.63 and now stands at 2.44. The Asset/Liability Ratio for 2009 was 2.34 and it is now 3.42. For these ratios, anything over 1.50 is good. The last thing to remark on is that, although the earnings have grown from those of the first 6 months of 2009, they have not grown in line with the cash flow. The Return on Equity for the first 6 months of 2010 is just 8% and the lowest ROE this company has yet shown. The 5 year average ROE is 15.4%.
Tomorrow I will look at what the analysts have to say about this company. I will continue to track this company as it could turn out to be a great company.
Alliance Grain Traders Inc through its subsidiaries, Alliance Pulse Processors Inc. ("Alliance") and Arbel Group ("Arbel"), is engaged in the business of sourcing and processing (cleaning, splitting, sorting and bagging) specialty crops, primarily for export markets. Alliance and its subsidiaries in Canada, U.S., Australia and Turkey handle the full range of pulses and specialty crops including lentils, peas, chickpeas, beans and canary seed through six processing plants. The company recent bought the Arbel Group of Mersin, Turkey. Its web site is here Alliance Grain . See my spreadsheet at agt.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Since the time this company converted to a corporation, its dividends have remained level, but the stock price has come up significantly. When it first established as an Income trust the dividend yield was over 7%. When it converted to a corporation in 2009, dividend yield was about 2.8%. The current yield is just 1.8%. However, cash flow for the last 3 months is up significantly, so perhaps this company will restart dividend increases. However, I can find no place where the company says what they intend to do with dividends. It would make this a more interesting investment if they restart dividend increases.
This company, since it went public in 2004, has had great growth in revenues, earnings, total return, cash flows and book value. The lowest 5 year growth is in cash flow with a growth of 16% per year. However, as mentioned above this 2nd quarter of 2010 shows a great growth in cash flows, of over 200%. Probably the best growth in the last 5 years was in earnings and this company’s earnings have grown some 95% per year.
When looking at the Liquidity and Asset/Liability Ratios, I see nothing but a strong balance sheet. The liquidity Ratio for 2009 was 1.63 and now stands at 2.44. The Asset/Liability Ratio for 2009 was 2.34 and it is now 3.42. For these ratios, anything over 1.50 is good. The last thing to remark on is that, although the earnings have grown from those of the first 6 months of 2009, they have not grown in line with the cash flow. The Return on Equity for the first 6 months of 2010 is just 8% and the lowest ROE this company has yet shown. The 5 year average ROE is 15.4%.
Tomorrow I will look at what the analysts have to say about this company. I will continue to track this company as it could turn out to be a great company.
Alliance Grain Traders Inc through its subsidiaries, Alliance Pulse Processors Inc. ("Alliance") and Arbel Group ("Arbel"), is engaged in the business of sourcing and processing (cleaning, splitting, sorting and bagging) specialty crops, primarily for export markets. Alliance and its subsidiaries in Canada, U.S., Australia and Turkey handle the full range of pulses and specialty crops including lentils, peas, chickpeas, beans and canary seed through six processing plants. The company recent bought the Arbel Group of Mersin, Turkey. Its web site is here Alliance Grain . See my spreadsheet at agt.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Monday, August 16, 2010
AGF Management Ltd 2
I owned this stock (TSX-AGF) at one time. I bought it in 2001 and sold stock in 2006 and 2008. I made a return of just over 2% per year. I sold it because the company was having problems and I could not see that they would get any better anytime soon. This company is on the dividend lists I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices). But note that not all companies on these dividend achievers lists are great investments.
As usual, the first thing I always look at is insider trading, and for this stock over the past year there was some $1.5M selling and just under $.4M of buying. I do not think we learn anything from this report. The selling is less than .2% of this stock’s market capitalization.
Most of the analysts’ recommendations on this stock are a Hold. I also I find Buy and Underperform recommendations and one Sell recommendation. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) Since I looked at this stock after the November 2009 annual report came in, analysts have been lowering the expected earnings for this company for 2010 and 2011. Analysts also mention that they prefer other Mutual Fund companies to this one.
There is always one analyst that remarks that you can make more money in investing in a Mutual Fund company than investing in Mutual Funds. Also mentioned is the fact that since the 2008 crash, a lot of money is in Money Market Funds and bond funds. This means that a lot of money is sitting on the sidelines because of nervous investors. This sort of thing happens after everyone market crash. Analysts’ also remark that this company is cheap, but not a good buy.
When I look at the P/E ratio, I get a 5 year average low of 11 and a 5 year average high of 20.4. The current P/E ratio, based on earnings estimates is 10.6. I also track the trailing P/E Ratio. A trailing P/E ratio is when you use the current price and last year’s earnings. When I look at the trailing P/E ratio, I get a 5 year average low of 13.3 and a 5 year average high of 22.7. Using the current stock price, I get a Trailing P/E ratio of 13.3. So on this basis, the stock looks cheap. (Note that Trailing P/E ratios tend to be a bit higher than P/E ratios.)
Based on current earning estimates, I get a Graham Price of $19.75. This is also 27% higher than the current stock price of $14.47. In recent years the stock price low have been just over 60% lower than the Graham Price. So, this stock has had recent much lower relative stock prices.
The dividend yield on this stock is also good compared to the past. The current yield is 7.1% and the 5 year average is 4.3%. However, the dividend yield has reached levels over 12% over the past 2 years. I guess the last thing to look at is the Price/Book Value Ratio. The 10 year average is 2.11 and the current P/B ratio is just 1.14. So the current P/B ratio is just over 50% lower than the 10 year average.
So, looking over the pricing ratios that I follow, this stock does look relatively cheap. However, I agree with analysts that think this company is not a good buy. I would like to see it increase its cash flow and revenues before I would even consider buying it again. I would also like to see it pay out a small portion of the cash flow in dividends. If cash flows do not increase, I do not see how it can continue to increase the dividend payments into the future. Currently I am not interested in this stock, but I will continue to follow it.
AGF is a Mutual Fund company. It owns AGF Trust Company. The company has a diversified group of products designed to meet a variety of investment objectives including GICs, term deposits, real estate secured loans, investment loans and home equity lines of credits. They sell their products in Canada. There are multiple voting shares with the major shareholder being the Goldring family. Controlling shareholder is Charles Warren Golding. He has 10.7% of the shares, but has 80% voting control. The class B shares are non-voting. Its web site is here AGF. See my spreadsheet at agf.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
As usual, the first thing I always look at is insider trading, and for this stock over the past year there was some $1.5M selling and just under $.4M of buying. I do not think we learn anything from this report. The selling is less than .2% of this stock’s market capitalization.
Most of the analysts’ recommendations on this stock are a Hold. I also I find Buy and Underperform recommendations and one Sell recommendation. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) Since I looked at this stock after the November 2009 annual report came in, analysts have been lowering the expected earnings for this company for 2010 and 2011. Analysts also mention that they prefer other Mutual Fund companies to this one.
There is always one analyst that remarks that you can make more money in investing in a Mutual Fund company than investing in Mutual Funds. Also mentioned is the fact that since the 2008 crash, a lot of money is in Money Market Funds and bond funds. This means that a lot of money is sitting on the sidelines because of nervous investors. This sort of thing happens after everyone market crash. Analysts’ also remark that this company is cheap, but not a good buy.
When I look at the P/E ratio, I get a 5 year average low of 11 and a 5 year average high of 20.4. The current P/E ratio, based on earnings estimates is 10.6. I also track the trailing P/E Ratio. A trailing P/E ratio is when you use the current price and last year’s earnings. When I look at the trailing P/E ratio, I get a 5 year average low of 13.3 and a 5 year average high of 22.7. Using the current stock price, I get a Trailing P/E ratio of 13.3. So on this basis, the stock looks cheap. (Note that Trailing P/E ratios tend to be a bit higher than P/E ratios.)
Based on current earning estimates, I get a Graham Price of $19.75. This is also 27% higher than the current stock price of $14.47. In recent years the stock price low have been just over 60% lower than the Graham Price. So, this stock has had recent much lower relative stock prices.
The dividend yield on this stock is also good compared to the past. The current yield is 7.1% and the 5 year average is 4.3%. However, the dividend yield has reached levels over 12% over the past 2 years. I guess the last thing to look at is the Price/Book Value Ratio. The 10 year average is 2.11 and the current P/B ratio is just 1.14. So the current P/B ratio is just over 50% lower than the 10 year average.
So, looking over the pricing ratios that I follow, this stock does look relatively cheap. However, I agree with analysts that think this company is not a good buy. I would like to see it increase its cash flow and revenues before I would even consider buying it again. I would also like to see it pay out a small portion of the cash flow in dividends. If cash flows do not increase, I do not see how it can continue to increase the dividend payments into the future. Currently I am not interested in this stock, but I will continue to follow it.
AGF is a Mutual Fund company. It owns AGF Trust Company. The company has a diversified group of products designed to meet a variety of investment objectives including GICs, term deposits, real estate secured loans, investment loans and home equity lines of credits. They sell their products in Canada. There are multiple voting shares with the major shareholder being the Goldring family. Controlling shareholder is Charles Warren Golding. He has 10.7% of the shares, but has 80% voting control. The class B shares are non-voting. Its web site is here AGF. See my spreadsheet at agf.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Friday, August 13, 2010
AGF Management Ltd
I owned this stock (TSX-AGF) at one time. I bought it in 2001 and sold stock in 2006 and 2008. I made a return of just over 2% per year. I sold it because the company was having problems and I could not see that they would get any better anytime soon. Still, I sold at a better price that I could get today. It seems to me that this company did not recover well from the last recession and then it got hit with the current one. Since it is a Mutual Fund company, you would expect a recession to hit it hard, but you also expect to see it recover when a recession is over.
This company is on the dividend lists I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices). But note that not all companies on these dividend achievers lists are great investments. To continue to increase their dividends, this company is paying a higher and higher proportion of their cash flow. It is now approaching almost 50% of the cash flow. I do not think this is a good idea. They might have been better off maintaining the dividend or decreasing it and getting the company into a better shape.
The company’s year end is in November, and if you use their year end stock prices, the total return on this company is just over 6% per year for the past 5 and 10 years. Of this total return, dividend payments have produced almost 5% per year of the return over the last 5 years and about 3% per year of the return over the last 10 years. Considering this company is probably a medium risk to high risk, this is not very good. Also, the current stock price is back to what it was in 1999.
The other thing I do not like is that the cash flow fluctuations around, but has not really grown over the last 10 years. The Revenues also have not grown much over the past 10 years. The 5 and 10 year growth figures are -1.4% per year and 3.7% per year, respectively. Their Liquidity and Asset/Liability Ratios are low, but they have no trouble getting loans.
Probably the best thing you can say about this stock is that over the past 5 and 10 years the dividends have been increasing at the rate of 20% per year. My problem is that I do not think this is sustainable unless they start to earn some money. I know that their earnings grew over the last 5 and 10 year periods at the rate of 5% per year and 3.7% per year respectively. However, I like looking at cash flow because I feel you can judge the profitability of a company better using cash flows than using earnings.
This is obviously not a very upbeat report on this company. On Monday, I will look at what the analysts say about it.
AGF is a Mutual Fund company. It owns AGF Trust Company. The company has a diversified group of products designed to meet a variety of investment objectives including GICs, term deposits, real estate secured loans, investment loans and home equity lines of credits. They sell their products in Canada. There are multiple voting shares with the major shareholder being the Goldring family. Controlling shareholder is Charles Warren Golding. He has 10.7% of the shares, but has 80% voting control. The class B shares are non-voting. Its web site is here AGF. See my spreadsheet at agf.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
This company is on the dividend lists I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices). But note that not all companies on these dividend achievers lists are great investments. To continue to increase their dividends, this company is paying a higher and higher proportion of their cash flow. It is now approaching almost 50% of the cash flow. I do not think this is a good idea. They might have been better off maintaining the dividend or decreasing it and getting the company into a better shape.
The company’s year end is in November, and if you use their year end stock prices, the total return on this company is just over 6% per year for the past 5 and 10 years. Of this total return, dividend payments have produced almost 5% per year of the return over the last 5 years and about 3% per year of the return over the last 10 years. Considering this company is probably a medium risk to high risk, this is not very good. Also, the current stock price is back to what it was in 1999.
The other thing I do not like is that the cash flow fluctuations around, but has not really grown over the last 10 years. The Revenues also have not grown much over the past 10 years. The 5 and 10 year growth figures are -1.4% per year and 3.7% per year, respectively. Their Liquidity and Asset/Liability Ratios are low, but they have no trouble getting loans.
Probably the best thing you can say about this stock is that over the past 5 and 10 years the dividends have been increasing at the rate of 20% per year. My problem is that I do not think this is sustainable unless they start to earn some money. I know that their earnings grew over the last 5 and 10 year periods at the rate of 5% per year and 3.7% per year respectively. However, I like looking at cash flow because I feel you can judge the profitability of a company better using cash flows than using earnings.
This is obviously not a very upbeat report on this company. On Monday, I will look at what the analysts say about it.
AGF is a Mutual Fund company. It owns AGF Trust Company. The company has a diversified group of products designed to meet a variety of investment objectives including GICs, term deposits, real estate secured loans, investment loans and home equity lines of credits. They sell their products in Canada. There are multiple voting shares with the major shareholder being the Goldring family. Controlling shareholder is Charles Warren Golding. He has 10.7% of the shares, but has 80% voting control. The class B shares are non-voting. Its web site is here AGF. See my spreadsheet at agf.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Ag Growth International 2
This stock (TSX-AFN) is on one of the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers . This company started to pay dividends in June 2004, when it started trading as a Unit Trust company. It changed to a corporation in June 2009, but there has been no dividend increase since July 2008. Unit Trust can afford to payout more in dividends than corporations can.
I first like to look at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling report. What I found was net selling of $1.3M, with the majority of this selling occurring at the first of this year. There has been some recent insider buying of $.2M, which is small but encouraging. Officers of this company have all increased their shares during this year. The company has also been buying back shares for cancellations.
When I look at the 5 year average P/E low I get a ratio of 8.7 and for the 5 year average P/E high, I get a ratio of 16.7. Using the estimated earnings for 2010, I get a P/E ratio of 13.7. This ratio points to an OK stock price. I get a current Graham Price of $28.45, which is 27% lower than the stock price. The Graham Price for 2009 was $32.47. The reason for the decline is that this company is not expected to earn as much this year as last year. It is expected that earnings for 2011 will be $2.65 compared to 2009 earnings of $3.45. This would be 23% drop.
Earnings for the 1st quarter of 2010 came in at $.49 compared to 1st quarter of 2009, where earnings were $.79. This is a 38% drop in earnings. The earnings estimates for 2010 and 2011 where lowered after the 1st quarterly statements were published. However, this company’s revenue only fell 6.6% in the first quarter, which is a good showing.
The other ratios I look at show the stock price is relatively high. The Price/Book Value Ratio for the last 5 years has an average of 1.92 and the current ratio is higher at 2.67. What you want to see is a current lower P/B ratio. The other ratio is the dividend yield. The current dividend yield is 5.6% and the 5 year average is 8.3%. What you usually look for is a better current dividend yield.
However, Unit Trust companies that convert to corporations are expected to go to yields between 2.5% and 4.5%, which is down significantly from what you expect from Unit Trusts companies. The drop in yields is expected to be cause by lower dividends and/or higher stock prices. This company plans to maintain their dividend rate, so you would expect a rise in stock price over the next few years.
When I look at the analysts recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The main difference in the recommendations seems to be what the stock price will be in the next 12 month period. Analysts seem to think this is a good company and that the dividends are safe.
I think that this is an interest dividend paying stock and I will continue to track it.
Ag Growth is a leading North American manufacturer of portable grain handling equipment, consisting of augers, belt conveyors, grain drying, fencing, post hole augers, and other ancillary grain handling accessories. This company has 1,400 dealers and distributors in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Ag Growth. See my spreadsheet at afn.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
I first like to look at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling report. What I found was net selling of $1.3M, with the majority of this selling occurring at the first of this year. There has been some recent insider buying of $.2M, which is small but encouraging. Officers of this company have all increased their shares during this year. The company has also been buying back shares for cancellations.
When I look at the 5 year average P/E low I get a ratio of 8.7 and for the 5 year average P/E high, I get a ratio of 16.7. Using the estimated earnings for 2010, I get a P/E ratio of 13.7. This ratio points to an OK stock price. I get a current Graham Price of $28.45, which is 27% lower than the stock price. The Graham Price for 2009 was $32.47. The reason for the decline is that this company is not expected to earn as much this year as last year. It is expected that earnings for 2011 will be $2.65 compared to 2009 earnings of $3.45. This would be 23% drop.
Earnings for the 1st quarter of 2010 came in at $.49 compared to 1st quarter of 2009, where earnings were $.79. This is a 38% drop in earnings. The earnings estimates for 2010 and 2011 where lowered after the 1st quarterly statements were published. However, this company’s revenue only fell 6.6% in the first quarter, which is a good showing.
The other ratios I look at show the stock price is relatively high. The Price/Book Value Ratio for the last 5 years has an average of 1.92 and the current ratio is higher at 2.67. What you want to see is a current lower P/B ratio. The other ratio is the dividend yield. The current dividend yield is 5.6% and the 5 year average is 8.3%. What you usually look for is a better current dividend yield.
However, Unit Trust companies that convert to corporations are expected to go to yields between 2.5% and 4.5%, which is down significantly from what you expect from Unit Trusts companies. The drop in yields is expected to be cause by lower dividends and/or higher stock prices. This company plans to maintain their dividend rate, so you would expect a rise in stock price over the next few years.
When I look at the analysts recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) The main difference in the recommendations seems to be what the stock price will be in the next 12 month period. Analysts seem to think this is a good company and that the dividends are safe.
I think that this is an interest dividend paying stock and I will continue to track it.
Ag Growth is a leading North American manufacturer of portable grain handling equipment, consisting of augers, belt conveyors, grain drying, fencing, post hole augers, and other ancillary grain handling accessories. This company has 1,400 dealers and distributors in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Ag Growth. See my spreadsheet at afn.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Ag Growth International
I am continuing covering some of the stocks I follow, up do not own. This stock (TSX-AFN) is on one of the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers . This company started to pay dividends in 2004, and since then the dividends have grown some 21% per year. This is very good, considering that the yield on this stock is 5.6%, the 5 year average yield is 8.3%, and this stock is considered to be of average risk.
This stock used to be a Unit Trust and successfully converted to a corporation in June of 2009. It was made a public company in 2004 and I cannot find any financial statements prior to 2004. This means that I have only 5 years of data on this stock. The only data I can find prior to 2004 was for the company’s revenue.
The only growth figure that I find a little low is that for Book Value and it has grown at the rate of 7.8% over the last 5 years. The thing to keep in mind is that Unit Trust companies tended not to grow their book values. The main reason for this was that they paid out a lot of their cash flow. This company has reduced their payout of cash flow to just 50% for the year ending in 2009.
On this stock both the earnings and cash flow figures for 2010 and 2011 has been reduced since I looked at this stock after the 2009 annual report was issued. The payout ratio for cash value is expected to be increased in 2010 to almost 60%. The dividends have not yet been increased this year. Dividends are paid out monthly and they have declared the dividends for the months up to and including October 2010, with no increase.
The stock price is holding up quite well for this stock currently. The 5 year total return on this stock is 33% with 10% of this in dividend payments. The other very good thing about this stock is the Liquidity Ratio and the Asset/Liability Ratio. Both these ratios, at 5.34 and 1.80 respectively, are above what I like to see of 1.50, so this is great. The Return on Equity is also quite good, with a 5 year average to 2009 of 17.5% and a current one for the 1st quarter of 14.5%.
Sales and earnings for the 1st quarter are down from those of 2009. However, a lot of companies are currently having a hard time in these uncertain times. I will continue to track this stock as I feel that this is a good dividend paying stock. Tomorrow, I will look at what the analysts are saying about it.
Ag Growth is a leading North American manufacturer of portable grain handling equipment, consisting of augers, belt conveyors, grain drying, fencing, post hole augers, and other ancillary grain handling accessories. This company has 1,400 dealers and distributors in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Ag Growth. See my spreadsheet at afn.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
This stock used to be a Unit Trust and successfully converted to a corporation in June of 2009. It was made a public company in 2004 and I cannot find any financial statements prior to 2004. This means that I have only 5 years of data on this stock. The only data I can find prior to 2004 was for the company’s revenue.
The only growth figure that I find a little low is that for Book Value and it has grown at the rate of 7.8% over the last 5 years. The thing to keep in mind is that Unit Trust companies tended not to grow their book values. The main reason for this was that they paid out a lot of their cash flow. This company has reduced their payout of cash flow to just 50% for the year ending in 2009.
On this stock both the earnings and cash flow figures for 2010 and 2011 has been reduced since I looked at this stock after the 2009 annual report was issued. The payout ratio for cash value is expected to be increased in 2010 to almost 60%. The dividends have not yet been increased this year. Dividends are paid out monthly and they have declared the dividends for the months up to and including October 2010, with no increase.
The stock price is holding up quite well for this stock currently. The 5 year total return on this stock is 33% with 10% of this in dividend payments. The other very good thing about this stock is the Liquidity Ratio and the Asset/Liability Ratio. Both these ratios, at 5.34 and 1.80 respectively, are above what I like to see of 1.50, so this is great. The Return on Equity is also quite good, with a 5 year average to 2009 of 17.5% and a current one for the 1st quarter of 14.5%.
Sales and earnings for the 1st quarter are down from those of 2009. However, a lot of companies are currently having a hard time in these uncertain times. I will continue to track this stock as I feel that this is a good dividend paying stock. Tomorrow, I will look at what the analysts are saying about it.
Ag Growth is a leading North American manufacturer of portable grain handling equipment, consisting of augers, belt conveyors, grain drying, fencing, post hole augers, and other ancillary grain handling accessories. This company has 1,400 dealers and distributors in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Ag Growth. See my spreadsheet at afn.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Canadian Natural Resources 2
Even though this stock (TSX-CNQ) is on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices) I do not consider it to be a good dividend stock. Dividend yield is very low, although they consistently raise them. If I buy resource stock, I rather get one with the fluctuating dividends as you get a much higher percentage of your return from dividends.
When I look at Insider Buying and Insider Selling, I find that there is a net of selling of $38.2M, with selling at $40.7M and buying at $2.5M. Most of the selling occurred in March and April of this year and in August of 2009. The problem with Insider Selling is that you never know why people are selling. Most of the insiders have been increasing their holding recently.
The 5 year average low P/E is 10 and the 5 year average high P/E is 20. The current P/E, based on earnings estimates for 2010, is not bad at 14. The earnings were low for 2009 and they are expected to increase significantly for 2010. Earnings for 2009 were $1.46 and they are expected to be $2.56 in 2010. I get a Graham Price of $32.81 for 2010 and the current stock price of $36.83 is 12% higher. In most years, the stock price has been much closer to or lower than the Graham Price at some time.
The 10 year Price/Book Value ratio is 2.08 and the current ratio is 1.97, just 5% less. Points to a relative good price by the measure, but a great price would be if the current ratio were 20% below the 10 year average. The 5 year average yield is just .6% and the current yield is better at .8% and this also points to a relatively good stock price.
The next thing is what do the analysts say? There are lots of analysts following this stock and most feel that it is a Strong Buy or Buy. There are a few that rate it a hold. The Buys come with a 12 month strong growth in the stock price. The consensus recommendation is a toss up between Strong Buy and Buy, but probably just into the Buy area. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
Analysts seem to like the management of this company. They also like the fact that this company is moving from a gas play to a more balanced play of oil and gas. Most feel this company is a long term hold.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is a senior oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. The Company's operations are focused in Western Canada, in the U.K. sector of the North Sea and in offshore West Africa. Its web site is here CDN Natural Resources. See my spreadsheet at cnq.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
When I look at Insider Buying and Insider Selling, I find that there is a net of selling of $38.2M, with selling at $40.7M and buying at $2.5M. Most of the selling occurred in March and April of this year and in August of 2009. The problem with Insider Selling is that you never know why people are selling. Most of the insiders have been increasing their holding recently.
The 5 year average low P/E is 10 and the 5 year average high P/E is 20. The current P/E, based on earnings estimates for 2010, is not bad at 14. The earnings were low for 2009 and they are expected to increase significantly for 2010. Earnings for 2009 were $1.46 and they are expected to be $2.56 in 2010. I get a Graham Price of $32.81 for 2010 and the current stock price of $36.83 is 12% higher. In most years, the stock price has been much closer to or lower than the Graham Price at some time.
The 10 year Price/Book Value ratio is 2.08 and the current ratio is 1.97, just 5% less. Points to a relative good price by the measure, but a great price would be if the current ratio were 20% below the 10 year average. The 5 year average yield is just .6% and the current yield is better at .8% and this also points to a relatively good stock price.
The next thing is what do the analysts say? There are lots of analysts following this stock and most feel that it is a Strong Buy or Buy. There are a few that rate it a hold. The Buys come with a 12 month strong growth in the stock price. The consensus recommendation is a toss up between Strong Buy and Buy, but probably just into the Buy area. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
Analysts seem to like the management of this company. They also like the fact that this company is moving from a gas play to a more balanced play of oil and gas. Most feel this company is a long term hold.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is a senior oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. The Company's operations are focused in Western Canada, in the U.K. sector of the North Sea and in offshore West Africa. Its web site is here CDN Natural Resources. See my spreadsheet at cnq.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
Monday, August 9, 2010
Canadian Natural Resources
This is a stock (TSX-CNQ) I follow, but do not own. It is a resource stock that pays dividends. However, this one is different from most resource stocks that pay dividends. The dividends paid do not fluctuate with the price of the underlying commodity. The dividend on this stock is at a very low yield and they have raised their dividends on a consistent basis.
The growth figures on this stock are mostly very good, but it is obvious that 2009 was not a good year for this stock. The growth for dividends, my favorite subject, is good with the 5 and 10 year growth rates being at 16% and 19.7% per year, respectively. The worse growth figures are for earnings and the 5 and 10 year growth rates are 2.4% and 19.7% per year respectively. The reason for the low growth over the last 5 years is that the earnings decreased between 2008 and 2009 by about 70%.
One of the best growth rates occurred for total return. The growth for total return over the last 5 and 10 years are around 25% per year for each period. However, most of the return is in stock price appreciation, as dividends barely add 1% to the total return. So, if you are looking to buy a stock for dividends, this is probably not one you would consider.
When you look at the Liquidity Ratio, this is consistently a low ratio; however, the Asset/Liability Ratio is always quite high. At the end of 2009, the A/L Ratio was 1.90 where anything over 1.50 is good. Another ratio that is usually quite good is the Return on Equity. The ROE for 2009 was lower than usual at just 8.1%, but the 5 year average was still 18%. Also, the ROE for the 1st quarter is also good at 17%. The Accrual Ratio is unremarkable at 2.6%, with a cash flow from operations higher than the net income, which is what you would want to see.
This stock is on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices) as they consistently increase their dividends. However, as I stated before, the yield is so low that it barely affects the total return for this stock. I feel that this stock is a good one, but one I will probably not buy because of the low dividends. I will continue to follow it as it is on the dividend achievers type lists.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is a senior oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. The Company's operations are focused in Western Canada, in the U.K. sector of the North Sea and in offshore West Africa. Its web site is here CDN Natural Resources. See my spreadsheet at cnq.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
The growth figures on this stock are mostly very good, but it is obvious that 2009 was not a good year for this stock. The growth for dividends, my favorite subject, is good with the 5 and 10 year growth rates being at 16% and 19.7% per year, respectively. The worse growth figures are for earnings and the 5 and 10 year growth rates are 2.4% and 19.7% per year respectively. The reason for the low growth over the last 5 years is that the earnings decreased between 2008 and 2009 by about 70%.
One of the best growth rates occurred for total return. The growth for total return over the last 5 and 10 years are around 25% per year for each period. However, most of the return is in stock price appreciation, as dividends barely add 1% to the total return. So, if you are looking to buy a stock for dividends, this is probably not one you would consider.
When you look at the Liquidity Ratio, this is consistently a low ratio; however, the Asset/Liability Ratio is always quite high. At the end of 2009, the A/L Ratio was 1.90 where anything over 1.50 is good. Another ratio that is usually quite good is the Return on Equity. The ROE for 2009 was lower than usual at just 8.1%, but the 5 year average was still 18%. Also, the ROE for the 1st quarter is also good at 17%. The Accrual Ratio is unremarkable at 2.6%, with a cash flow from operations higher than the net income, which is what you would want to see.
This stock is on the dividend lists that I follow of Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats (see indices) as they consistently increase their dividends. However, as I stated before, the yield is so low that it barely affects the total return for this stock. I feel that this stock is a good one, but one I will probably not buy because of the low dividends. I will continue to follow it as it is on the dividend achievers type lists.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is a senior oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. The Company's operations are focused in Western Canada, in the U.K. sector of the North Sea and in offshore West Africa. Its web site is here CDN Natural Resources. See my spreadsheet at cnq.htm
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.
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