I was down at the Money Show at the Toronto Convention center again today. I again went to a number of their education presentation and some of their product presentations.
One of the first speakers I heard was Ian McAvity. He again was interesting. He said that ABS’s (asset backed securities) are now dead for the simple reason that no one will buy them. He thinks we are back to 1938, which had lower highs and lower lows. He feels that the global banking system is not healthy. He feels that the US not only killed its stock market, but it has also killed its house market. Apparently, this is a first. He sees no future bull market because of the aging population. Aging populations have a tendency to save and not spend. Also, he said a lot of money is leaving US and a lot of money is coming into Canada. Our stock market is healthier than the US ones. This is nice to hear.
The next presentation was a product presentation. It was by www.YourInvestmentMall.com. This is an American company, and probably not bad, if you want to trade in US stocks. However, their presentation was an American one. You would think if they wanted to sell to Canadians, they could at least look up some Canadian statistics. I did not take any notes on this, so I do not have much to say about it. However, the concept sounds interesting, where you can get investment education, help with investing and investing all on one site.
The next presentation I went to was by Tom Busby of DTI Trader. The talk was to be on “Don’t fight the Trend: Strategies for Trading in a Bull or Bear Market”. Since they could not find the presentation on their laptop, Tom just winged it. I have few notes again, but he did say some interesting things. First, if the index is going up, it is probable that 75% to 80% of the stocks of the index are probably going up. He looks for market trends by looking at opening prices. First, he looks at monthly trends, then weekly trends and then finally daily trends. Is the market going up or down is basically his question, whether he is looking at a stock or an index.
The next speaker was Bill Hubard of MIG Investments. This guy was very good and gave an excellent presentation. First, he said that markets are not a great system, but are better than anything else we have tried. (Yes, he was paraphrasing Winston Churchill.) He said you do not want to invest when there is too much greed. This is when stock market bubbles occur. The better market is when there is too much fear. Markets will be low and it is here that it is best to invest. According to him, the stock market has calmed down a lot and we are in better shape than last year. He feels that markets do work. They are open today and they will be open tomorrow. Currently, he feels that a lot of company’s earnings are being upgraded for this year and that stock volumes are up. He feels that we risk deflation rather than inflations. To him, when the 10 year government bond has a 3½% interest rate, we are not going to inflation anytime soon. He believes that people are basically optimistic, that we feel if today is bad, tomorrow will be better. So, our economy and our stock market will recover.
The next talk I heard was also very interesting. This was by Brendan Caldwell of Caldwell Investments Management Inc. The talk was “The Equity Markets: Past, Present and Future”. People right away asked him about the future. He said that he feels that we can make money in a stock market rise over the next 3 to 6 months and then all bets are off. He does not know what will happen after 3 to 6 months. He also said that the best stocks would be in the Tech sector. According to him, we got into this mess because we got rid of the rules put in place after the great depression. In the US, they had the Glass-Steagall Act and we in Canada had the 4 pillars. The 4 pillars were banking, insurance, trust and investment companies and they were separate and companies could not operate in more than one area. Another rule we got rid of is that short selling could only occur on an up-tick. This stopped bear raids. We got rid of this rule and then got bear raids. Another problem he saw was that in the US buying a house was like buying an option. People put zero down and they would win if the house price went up and they would walk away if it went down.
The last presentation I want to talk about is the one by Warren MacKenzie of Second Opinion Investor Services Inc, with a web site of www.secondopinion.ca. He said that a lot of investors are becoming the DIY type. He feels that this is because the traditional sources of information no longer justify the fees required to be paid, that investors are questioning the wisdom of experts and that too many experts they contact have conflicts of interest. He feels that many people are still shocked about the losses they have suffered and this is after they listened to their advisors. Many people now believe that they could not do worse then their advisors, even novice investors feel this way. The most important point he made was to make a written plan for investing and stick to it. They charge by the hour for their services, and will look over what investments you and advise if the plan you have in place at present is good for you.
I plan to go back to the Money Show tomorrow.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
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