I am reviewing this stock (TSX-CCL.B) because I started a spreadsheet on it. I did this as I read a favorable report on this stock. I had also heard of this stock before. This is also a dividend paying stock and it is on is on the Dividend Achievers list at Dividend Achievers. I do not own any of the stock of this company.
This company has some good growth indicators. The dividend, cash flow and the 5 year Book Value shows health growth. The Revenue has negative growth for both the 5 year and 10 year periods. This is because they sold its North American Custom Manufacturing Division in 2005 and this caused a decline in their revenues from 2005. Their earnings growth is not great for the last 5 and 10 year periods. They had very good growth for 2005 and 2007. However, 2008 was not a good year. All the analysts seem to feel that 2009 and 2010 will be better years for earnings growth.
The Liquidity and Asset/Debt ratios are good at 1.47 and 1.74 respectively. This means that the company can cover both their current and long term debts well. When looking at Return on Equity (ROE), this company’s 5 year average of 15.8% is very good. However, the ROE for 2008 is only 6.5% and this is very mediocre, at best. The Accrual Ratio is not bad at 3.5%, but when we add in the Financial Cash Flow, it comes down to 1.25%
This stock has not preformed well as far as growth in the stock price, but this will change when we get out of this current bear market. They have already raised their dividend 7% for this year, so the company seems to feel that they will do fine for 2009. I will talk about what the analysts say about this stock currently, tomorrow.
CCL Industries Inc. provides state-of-the-art specialty packaging solutions to some of the world’s largest producers of consumer brands in personal care, cosmetic, healthcare, household and specialty food and beverage products. CCL is the world’s largest supplier of innovative and secure labeling solutions to leading global companies in the consumer product and healthcare sectors and supplies aluminum containers and plastic tubes for major consumer brands of personal care, household products and specialty food and beverages. With headquarters in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, CCL Industries operates production facilities in North America, Europe, Latin America, Asia and Australia. Its web site is www.cclind.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ccl.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
What I Have Been Doing
Today I am going to talk about three stocks, Pembina Pipelines (TSX-PIF.UN), Metro Inc (TSX-MRU.A) and TD Bank (TSX-TD). I have been doing some buying and some selling.
First, I will talk about what I sold. I sold ½ of the shares of Metro Inc. I did this because this stock got to be 10% of my portfolio. I do not like any one stock to be such a high percentage of my portfolio. I do not think that Metro is a bad stock. I only sold ½ of what I owned. It got to be such a larger percentage of my portfolio because of two things. First, this stock is now worth double what I paid for it. Second, Metro has been rising since March 2008. Since my portfolio is down a lot because of this recent bear market, this stock is worth a higher percentage of my portfolio.
I have looked at analyst recommendations on this stock. There are still Buys recommendations on this stock, but there a growing number of Holds and even some Underperform or Reduce calls on this stock. All the usual indicators are good on this stock. It has good growth in Revenue, Earnings, Book Value and Cash Flow. The only negative is that the current stock price is some 15% above the Graham Price.
What I replaced Metro with was TD Bank. As with all other Canadian Banks, this bank has been beaten up recently. The current yield at over 5% is above historical highs. The stock price is still below the Graham price by some 30%. This stock has good growth in Earnings, Book Value and Dividends. The growth in Revenues is not bad either. The percentage of my portfolio in financials has fallen recently. All financials have been hard hit by this current bear market. This will rebalance by portfolio for the sectors in which I invest. When the financials recover, I will probably have too much in this sector and will probably sell this stock or the stock of some other bank I hold.
The last stock to talk about is Pembina Pipelines. This is a unit trust stock and as such will be affected by the recent change in law for unit trust stock. This company will be changing to a corporation. However, they have stated that they plan to keep the current distribution of $1.56 per share for the next 5 years. This is, of course, no guarantee that this will happen, but we do know what they intend to do. I had some spare money to invest, so I invested some in this company. This company has had good growth in Revenues, Earnings and Cash Flow. It has not done badly in increasing the dividends in the past.
Currently the dividend is at an 11% yield and this is good compared to past yields. There has also been a lot of insider buying on this stock recently. However, all the estimates for this stock have been lowered since I last looked at this stock on March 6, 2009. Also, the stock recommendation has also moved to having majority at hold and some at reduced. So, according to these recommendations, I am taking a risk in investing at this time in this stock.
See my spreadsheets for these stocks at Pembina,
Metro and TD Bank.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
First, I will talk about what I sold. I sold ½ of the shares of Metro Inc. I did this because this stock got to be 10% of my portfolio. I do not like any one stock to be such a high percentage of my portfolio. I do not think that Metro is a bad stock. I only sold ½ of what I owned. It got to be such a larger percentage of my portfolio because of two things. First, this stock is now worth double what I paid for it. Second, Metro has been rising since March 2008. Since my portfolio is down a lot because of this recent bear market, this stock is worth a higher percentage of my portfolio.
I have looked at analyst recommendations on this stock. There are still Buys recommendations on this stock, but there a growing number of Holds and even some Underperform or Reduce calls on this stock. All the usual indicators are good on this stock. It has good growth in Revenue, Earnings, Book Value and Cash Flow. The only negative is that the current stock price is some 15% above the Graham Price.
What I replaced Metro with was TD Bank. As with all other Canadian Banks, this bank has been beaten up recently. The current yield at over 5% is above historical highs. The stock price is still below the Graham price by some 30%. This stock has good growth in Earnings, Book Value and Dividends. The growth in Revenues is not bad either. The percentage of my portfolio in financials has fallen recently. All financials have been hard hit by this current bear market. This will rebalance by portfolio for the sectors in which I invest. When the financials recover, I will probably have too much in this sector and will probably sell this stock or the stock of some other bank I hold.
The last stock to talk about is Pembina Pipelines. This is a unit trust stock and as such will be affected by the recent change in law for unit trust stock. This company will be changing to a corporation. However, they have stated that they plan to keep the current distribution of $1.56 per share for the next 5 years. This is, of course, no guarantee that this will happen, but we do know what they intend to do. I had some spare money to invest, so I invested some in this company. This company has had good growth in Revenues, Earnings and Cash Flow. It has not done badly in increasing the dividends in the past.
Currently the dividend is at an 11% yield and this is good compared to past yields. There has also been a lot of insider buying on this stock recently. However, all the estimates for this stock have been lowered since I last looked at this stock on March 6, 2009. Also, the stock recommendation has also moved to having majority at hold and some at reduced. So, according to these recommendations, I am taking a risk in investing at this time in this stock.
See my spreadsheets for these stocks at Pembina,
Metro and TD Bank.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Teck Resources Ltd 2
I am continuing my review this stock (TSX-TCK.B) from yesterday. (Note that this company used to be Teck Cominco Ltd until this month when the name was changed.) If you look at Insider Buying and Selling over the past year, there is net selling, however, most of the selling took place in the mid part of 2008 when this stock was around $50. The buying has occurred most recently and this has occurred mostly around $5.
The one big buy signal is that this stock is over 50% lower than the Graham Price. The P/E is not particularly low for this stock, but the Price/Cash Flow and Price/Book Value is. Of, course the problem with this stock is that it has too much debt because it bought Fording Coal at the wrong time. This is the reason for its fall and also for the cancelling of the dividends.
When you look at the analyst recommendations, there are lots of Buys and lots of Holds and few in other categories, but no Sells. For those that think this company is a Buy, they think it is high risk or speculative Buy.
When you look at the charts on this stock, you will find that it did much better than the TSX or the Material Sub-Index until its recent fall. Over the last 5 and 10 years, it has done as well as the TSX and this is after its current dramatic fall. Personally, I do not often buy resource stocks and I will sell my 100 share shortly.
Teck is a diversified resource company involved in mining and mineral development with major business units focused on copper, metallurgical coal, zinc, gold and energy. This company has interests in several oil sands developments. The company explores for resources in the Americas, the Asia Pacific Region, Europe and Africa. Its web site is www.teck.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/tck.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
The one big buy signal is that this stock is over 50% lower than the Graham Price. The P/E is not particularly low for this stock, but the Price/Cash Flow and Price/Book Value is. Of, course the problem with this stock is that it has too much debt because it bought Fording Coal at the wrong time. This is the reason for its fall and also for the cancelling of the dividends.
When you look at the analyst recommendations, there are lots of Buys and lots of Holds and few in other categories, but no Sells. For those that think this company is a Buy, they think it is high risk or speculative Buy.
When you look at the charts on this stock, you will find that it did much better than the TSX or the Material Sub-Index until its recent fall. Over the last 5 and 10 years, it has done as well as the TSX and this is after its current dramatic fall. Personally, I do not often buy resource stocks and I will sell my 100 share shortly.
Teck is a diversified resource company involved in mining and mineral development with major business units focused on copper, metallurgical coal, zinc, gold and energy. This company has interests in several oil sands developments. The company explores for resources in the Americas, the Asia Pacific Region, Europe and Africa. Its web site is www.teck.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/tck.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Teck Resources Ltd
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-TCK.B) as I received the annual report on this stock. I had bought 100 shares because the price got so low. When it moves up a bit more, I will sell. I know that there is a bear market and a recession, but one must also have some fun. (Note that this company used to be Teck Cominco Ltd until this month when the name was changed.)
If you look at the growth figures to the annual statement, then Revenue, Earnings, Book Value and Cash Flow all have very strong growth. What got this company in trouble is their short term debt. They bought Fording Coal at the wrong time. For every move they make to improve their balance sheet situation, the price for this stock has gone up. They have also stopped their dividend payments.
Since I last updated my spreadsheet on April 11th, 2009 for the annual report, the earnings expected for 2009 has gone down slightly and the earnings expected for 2010 have gone up slightly. I am just catching up in my blog for all the annual statement updates I have been making lately. Unfortunately, most of the financial statements come at the same time, so it takes time to process them and update my blog.
The Return on Equity (ROE) was low at 6% and quite a bit below the recent ROEs. The Accrual Ratio is high, but when you consider the Financial Cash Flow, the Accruals become negative. I do not usually buy resource stocks or I buy them for a short period of time. I know that the TSX has lots of resource stocks, but I personally find them too risky for a long term investment. I only bought into this one because the price when far lower than I thought it should for the problems they have.
Teck is a diversified resource company involved in mining and mineral development with major business units focused on copper, metallurgical coal, zinc, gold and energy. This company has interests in several oil sands developments. The company explores for resources in the Americas, the Asia Pacific Region, Europe and Africa. Its web site is www.teck.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/tck.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
If you look at the growth figures to the annual statement, then Revenue, Earnings, Book Value and Cash Flow all have very strong growth. What got this company in trouble is their short term debt. They bought Fording Coal at the wrong time. For every move they make to improve their balance sheet situation, the price for this stock has gone up. They have also stopped their dividend payments.
Since I last updated my spreadsheet on April 11th, 2009 for the annual report, the earnings expected for 2009 has gone down slightly and the earnings expected for 2010 have gone up slightly. I am just catching up in my blog for all the annual statement updates I have been making lately. Unfortunately, most of the financial statements come at the same time, so it takes time to process them and update my blog.
The Return on Equity (ROE) was low at 6% and quite a bit below the recent ROEs. The Accrual Ratio is high, but when you consider the Financial Cash Flow, the Accruals become negative. I do not usually buy resource stocks or I buy them for a short period of time. I know that the TSX has lots of resource stocks, but I personally find them too risky for a long term investment. I only bought into this one because the price when far lower than I thought it should for the problems they have.
Teck is a diversified resource company involved in mining and mineral development with major business units focused on copper, metallurgical coal, zinc, gold and energy. This company has interests in several oil sands developments. The company explores for resources in the Americas, the Asia Pacific Region, Europe and Africa. Its web site is www.teck.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/tck.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Friday, April 24, 2009
First Service Corp 2
I am continuing the reviewing of this stock (TSX-FSV) from yesterday. This stock is also traded in the US (NASDAQ-RSRV). The comments on Insider Buying and Selling I stated in March still hold. I see lots of buying last summer, lots of selling at the end of 2008, and most recently a bit of buying at under $10 per share. The net effect of this buying and selling is that the CEO and the CFO both have slightly less shares and other officers slightly more shares. The net of the past year is a net to insider selling.
This stock is still quite a bit below the Graham Price. The current P/E is around 9 and this is much lower than the 5 year average of 19. Also, the current Price/Cash Flow (P/CF) and Price/Book Value (P/BV) ratios are lower than the 5 year average for these ratios. However, the Leverage or Asset/Book Value Ratio is about the same as the 5 year average. The other good think is the negative Accrual Ratio.
In March, the consensus recommendations were broad because then all the ratings were present, but the consensus ending up a buy. The consensus is still a buy, but there are lots more Strong Buys and no more sell ratings. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
If you look at the charts, you will find that this stock is still underperforming the TSX, but it has recovered a bit lately moving from the $10 range into the $12 range. I will continue to my stock in this company.
This company is a global diversified leader in the rapidly growing real estate services sector, providing services in the following three areas: commercial real estate, residential property management and property services. This is an international company, having business in North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Its web site is www.firstservice.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fsv.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
This stock is still quite a bit below the Graham Price. The current P/E is around 9 and this is much lower than the 5 year average of 19. Also, the current Price/Cash Flow (P/CF) and Price/Book Value (P/BV) ratios are lower than the 5 year average for these ratios. However, the Leverage or Asset/Book Value Ratio is about the same as the 5 year average. The other good think is the negative Accrual Ratio.
In March, the consensus recommendations were broad because then all the ratings were present, but the consensus ending up a buy. The consensus is still a buy, but there are lots more Strong Buys and no more sell ratings. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
If you look at the charts, you will find that this stock is still underperforming the TSX, but it has recovered a bit lately moving from the $10 range into the $12 range. I will continue to my stock in this company.
This company is a global diversified leader in the rapidly growing real estate services sector, providing services in the following three areas: commercial real estate, residential property management and property services. This is an international company, having business in North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Its web site is www.firstservice.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fsv.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
First Service Corp
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-FSV) as I received the annual report on this stock. They have just changed their annual report’s date from March 31 each year to December 31 each year. The unfortunate part of the annual report for December 31, 2008 is that they only showed the figures for the 9 months ending at this date. What I did on my spreadsheet was show 12 months ending at December 31, 2008. In order to do this I used Globe Investor site and various quarterly statements.
I last reviewed this stock on March 17th and March 18th of this year. At that time, I stated that I bought this stock in 2002 and I have so far have lost some 10% per year on it. The stock price has since improved so that that now I have just lost some 8.8% per year. I stated in my last report that I will looking, perhaps, to buy some more. I decided not too and basically because this is not a dividend paying stock.
The 12 month period to December 2008 was much better than the 12 month period to March 2008. However, I note that the expected earnings for 2009 have declined. The earnings for December 2009 is expected by all the analyst I looked at to be lower than that to December 2008. However, they all seem to expect the earnings for 2010 to improve again.
When looking at this stock for the 5 and 10 years periods to December 2008, you will see that the Revenues, Earnings, Cash Flow and Book Value are all up quite nicely. If you look at the stock growth, you will see that this is not good. However, if you look at the 10 year growth figure for the stock, it is up some 5.4% annually. This is not bad considering we are in a bear market.
This stock still has a strong balance sheet in that the Asset/Liability Ratios is over 1.50. The Liquidity Ratio at 1.20 is a little low, but you still have more Current Assets than Current Liabilities. The Return on Equity (ROE) is a healthy figure on this stock. Another thing that is good is that the Accrual Ratio is negative.
This company is a global diversified leader in the rapidly growing real estate services sector, providing services in the following three areas: commercial real estate, residential property management and property services. This is an international company, having business in North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Its web site is www.firstservice.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fsv.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
I last reviewed this stock on March 17th and March 18th of this year. At that time, I stated that I bought this stock in 2002 and I have so far have lost some 10% per year on it. The stock price has since improved so that that now I have just lost some 8.8% per year. I stated in my last report that I will looking, perhaps, to buy some more. I decided not too and basically because this is not a dividend paying stock.
The 12 month period to December 2008 was much better than the 12 month period to March 2008. However, I note that the expected earnings for 2009 have declined. The earnings for December 2009 is expected by all the analyst I looked at to be lower than that to December 2008. However, they all seem to expect the earnings for 2010 to improve again.
When looking at this stock for the 5 and 10 years periods to December 2008, you will see that the Revenues, Earnings, Cash Flow and Book Value are all up quite nicely. If you look at the stock growth, you will see that this is not good. However, if you look at the 10 year growth figure for the stock, it is up some 5.4% annually. This is not bad considering we are in a bear market.
This stock still has a strong balance sheet in that the Asset/Liability Ratios is over 1.50. The Liquidity Ratio at 1.20 is a little low, but you still have more Current Assets than Current Liabilities. The Return on Equity (ROE) is a healthy figure on this stock. Another thing that is good is that the Accrual Ratio is negative.
This company is a global diversified leader in the rapidly growing real estate services sector, providing services in the following three areas: commercial real estate, residential property management and property services. This is an international company, having business in North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Its web site is www.firstservice.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fsv.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Andrew Peller 2
I am continuing my review this stock (TSX-ADW.A) today. First, I looked at Insider Buying and Selling. There is a bit of both going on, so this does not tell us anything.
When looking at the spreadsheet ratios, I find that the P/E for 2008 was 12, compared to a 5 year average of 15. However, the P/E has recently gone up because of much lower earnings. The earnings for last 12 months were $.27. On my spreadsheet, I was using the 3rd quarter figures, upped ¼ to cover 1 year for comparison purposes. This gives me an earnings figure of $.29. These earnings compare unfavorably with the earnings for 2008 of $.78. Problem is that there was a 3rd quarter earnings loss for this stock.
If you look at the yield for this stock, it is now around 4.7% and this is higher than the 5 year average of 2.6%. There was an increase in dividends by 10% for this year. This is the third year in a row that this stock has raised their dividends. If you look at the Graham Price, this stock, if the earnings are around the $.27 to $.29 is close to the current price. Since the Graham Price is affected by earnings, the Graham Price has come down from the $11 that it was at the end of the last financial year at March 2008.
The good things about the 3rd quarterly report are that revenue has increased and the Accrual Ratio has come down a lot. The bad things that I see are that the cash flow has fallen a lot and the book value has come down a bit. However, I must admit that the current price of $7.00 is quite close to the book value $6.79.
This is a small, little traded company, so I can find few analyst reports. I found none that gives estimates for this company. I have found 3 over the past year and they all think that this stock is a buy. Only one, from the Investment Report, remarks about the fact that they should do something about the cash flow. The three reviews I looked at all see the raise in dividends as a good sign.
Andrew Peller Limited (the “Company”) is a leading producer and marketer of quality wines in Canada. With wineries in British Columbia, Ontario and Nova Scotia, the Company markets wines produced from grapes grown in Ontario’s Niagara Peninsula, British Columbia’s Okanagan and Similkameen Valleys and vineyards around the world. As a result of the acquisition of Cascadia Brands Inc., the Company also markets craft beer under the Granville Island brand. The Company produces and markets consumer-made wine kit products through Winexpert and Vineco International Products. The Company’s products are sold predominantly in Canada. Its web site is www.andrewpeller.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/adw.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
When looking at the spreadsheet ratios, I find that the P/E for 2008 was 12, compared to a 5 year average of 15. However, the P/E has recently gone up because of much lower earnings. The earnings for last 12 months were $.27. On my spreadsheet, I was using the 3rd quarter figures, upped ¼ to cover 1 year for comparison purposes. This gives me an earnings figure of $.29. These earnings compare unfavorably with the earnings for 2008 of $.78. Problem is that there was a 3rd quarter earnings loss for this stock.
If you look at the yield for this stock, it is now around 4.7% and this is higher than the 5 year average of 2.6%. There was an increase in dividends by 10% for this year. This is the third year in a row that this stock has raised their dividends. If you look at the Graham Price, this stock, if the earnings are around the $.27 to $.29 is close to the current price. Since the Graham Price is affected by earnings, the Graham Price has come down from the $11 that it was at the end of the last financial year at March 2008.
The good things about the 3rd quarterly report are that revenue has increased and the Accrual Ratio has come down a lot. The bad things that I see are that the cash flow has fallen a lot and the book value has come down a bit. However, I must admit that the current price of $7.00 is quite close to the book value $6.79.
This is a small, little traded company, so I can find few analyst reports. I found none that gives estimates for this company. I have found 3 over the past year and they all think that this stock is a buy. Only one, from the Investment Report, remarks about the fact that they should do something about the cash flow. The three reviews I looked at all see the raise in dividends as a good sign.
Andrew Peller Limited (the “Company”) is a leading producer and marketer of quality wines in Canada. With wineries in British Columbia, Ontario and Nova Scotia, the Company markets wines produced from grapes grown in Ontario’s Niagara Peninsula, British Columbia’s Okanagan and Similkameen Valleys and vineyards around the world. As a result of the acquisition of Cascadia Brands Inc., the Company also markets craft beer under the Granville Island brand. The Company produces and markets consumer-made wine kit products through Winexpert and Vineco International Products. The Company’s products are sold predominantly in Canada. Its web site is www.andrewpeller.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/adw.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Andrew Peller
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-ADW.A) today as I read a positive review on this stock, which suggested that it was a good buy. I am always on the look out for good stocks to buy, so I did a spreadsheet on this stock. First, I will talk about what the positive review said and then what my concerns are. Perhaps, the other first thing to mention is that this stock is on Mike Higgs’ list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm. This is the only list it is on.
In the positive review, it was said that the market they are in, the Canadian Wine market, is expanding. It was also said that their profit margins are expanding. Certainly, the operational profit margin (OPM) at 3.7% for 2008 is better than the 2% of 2007. However, the OPM for 2008 is less than the 5 year average of 4.3%. It was said that the debt to equity ratio was improving. I look at the Asset to Book Value and this ratio is 2.53 is better than the 5 year average of 2.24.
The review mentions raising revenue, net income, increasing dividends and lower P/E. It also mentions that the stock is trading close to its Book Value. All the above items are true. Also, this stock is mentioned favorably by the Investment Reporter.
However, what bothers me about this stock is the lack of any increase in its Operational Cash Flow. Unless this cash flow is improved, I do not see how the dividends can increase much in the future. It is not just that 2008 was a bad year for Cash Flow and so the growth in Cash Flow is negative. I have looked at the Cash Flow going back to 1996 and it has its ups and downs, but that is all. There is no overall improvement in it. The Book Value has increased over the last 5 to 10 years by about 6%. This is not bad, but it is not great either.
Andrew Peller Limited (the “Company”) is a leading producer and marketer of quality wines in Canada. With wineries in British Columbia, Ontario and Nova Scotia, the Company markets wines produced from grapes grown in Ontario’s Niagara Peninsula, British Columbia’s Okanagan and Similkameen Valleys and vineyards around the world. As a result of the acquisition of Cascadia Brands Inc., the Company also markets craft beer under the Granville Island brand. The Company produces and markets consumer-made wine kit products through Winexpert and Vineco International Products. The Company’s products are sold predominantly in Canada. Its web site is www.andrewpeller.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/adw.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
In the positive review, it was said that the market they are in, the Canadian Wine market, is expanding. It was also said that their profit margins are expanding. Certainly, the operational profit margin (OPM) at 3.7% for 2008 is better than the 2% of 2007. However, the OPM for 2008 is less than the 5 year average of 4.3%. It was said that the debt to equity ratio was improving. I look at the Asset to Book Value and this ratio is 2.53 is better than the 5 year average of 2.24.
The review mentions raising revenue, net income, increasing dividends and lower P/E. It also mentions that the stock is trading close to its Book Value. All the above items are true. Also, this stock is mentioned favorably by the Investment Reporter.
However, what bothers me about this stock is the lack of any increase in its Operational Cash Flow. Unless this cash flow is improved, I do not see how the dividends can increase much in the future. It is not just that 2008 was a bad year for Cash Flow and so the growth in Cash Flow is negative. I have looked at the Cash Flow going back to 1996 and it has its ups and downs, but that is all. There is no overall improvement in it. The Book Value has increased over the last 5 to 10 years by about 6%. This is not bad, but it is not great either.
Andrew Peller Limited (the “Company”) is a leading producer and marketer of quality wines in Canada. With wineries in British Columbia, Ontario and Nova Scotia, the Company markets wines produced from grapes grown in Ontario’s Niagara Peninsula, British Columbia’s Okanagan and Similkameen Valleys and vineyards around the world. As a result of the acquisition of Cascadia Brands Inc., the Company also markets craft beer under the Granville Island brand. The Company produces and markets consumer-made wine kit products through Winexpert and Vineco International Products. The Company’s products are sold predominantly in Canada. Its web site is www.andrewpeller.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/adw.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Lords of Finance, Liaquat Ahamed
The full title of this book is Lords of Finance, The Bankers who Broke the World, by Liaquat Ahamed. This is yet another book on the causes and cures of the Great Depression. This book is very readable and it shows you another aspect of the events around the Great Depression that are not usually discussed.
If you think that the people who are trying to resolve our current crisis know what they are doing, think again. If they are still arguing about the causes and cures of the Great Depression, how can anyone think that it is clear what should be done today. Although, as with any past economic crisis, the problems must be addressed by politicians and bankers in order for the economies involved to move on.
There have been a number of books about the Great Depression and Roosevelt. Conrad Black wrote a book about how Roosevelt saved capitalism. What ever else you might think about Conrad Black, he is a terrific writer. Of course, others have written about how Roosevelt prolonged the recession. The two main legacies from Roosevelt are the Glass-Steagall Act and the farm support policies. People still debate their merits; and passed and current helpfulness today.
In this book, Ahamed takes a different approach and concentrates on what would be Federal Reserve bankers today. He talks about mainly about Montagu Norman of the Bank of England, Emile Moreau of the Banque de France, Hjalmar Schacht of the Reichsbank and Benjamin Strong of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The book is great history, if nothing else.
One of the things he brings up is the relationship between Germany and France prior to the 2nd World War. France really did not suffer in the Great Depression and Germany was in great economic turmoil from the end of the 1st World War. France was determined to get reparations from Germany because of the 1st World War. There were many Germans who begged France to help Germany recover economically, but France ignored all their pleas. The Germans felt if there was no help coming for them, then there would be some sort of revolution in Germany with bad results. How right they were.
There is a review of this book at New York Times. See an article by Ahmed at Blogs and Stories. Also, see some questions and answers at The New Yorker. To see an interview with Ahmed, see YouTube.
This book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at www.spbrunner.com/books.html. Also on my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Ahmed.
If you think that the people who are trying to resolve our current crisis know what they are doing, think again. If they are still arguing about the causes and cures of the Great Depression, how can anyone think that it is clear what should be done today. Although, as with any past economic crisis, the problems must be addressed by politicians and bankers in order for the economies involved to move on.
There have been a number of books about the Great Depression and Roosevelt. Conrad Black wrote a book about how Roosevelt saved capitalism. What ever else you might think about Conrad Black, he is a terrific writer. Of course, others have written about how Roosevelt prolonged the recession. The two main legacies from Roosevelt are the Glass-Steagall Act and the farm support policies. People still debate their merits; and passed and current helpfulness today.
In this book, Ahamed takes a different approach and concentrates on what would be Federal Reserve bankers today. He talks about mainly about Montagu Norman of the Bank of England, Emile Moreau of the Banque de France, Hjalmar Schacht of the Reichsbank and Benjamin Strong of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The book is great history, if nothing else.
One of the things he brings up is the relationship between Germany and France prior to the 2nd World War. France really did not suffer in the Great Depression and Germany was in great economic turmoil from the end of the 1st World War. France was determined to get reparations from Germany because of the 1st World War. There were many Germans who begged France to help Germany recover economically, but France ignored all their pleas. The Germans felt if there was no help coming for them, then there would be some sort of revolution in Germany with bad results. How right they were.
There is a review of this book at New York Times. See an article by Ahmed at Blogs and Stories. Also, see some questions and answers at The New Yorker. To see an interview with Ahmed, see YouTube.
This book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at www.spbrunner.com/books.html. Also on my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Ahmed.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Manulife Financial 2
I am continuing my review of this stock (TSX-MFC) today. The first thing I looked at was Insider Selling and Buying. There is lot of insider selling and this occurred at the end of 2008, before this stock dropped heavily and it was mostly done by the CEO. This is probably because Dominic D'Alessandro is stepping down as CEO of this company. I do not think this gives us useful information.
Is this stock at a good price when looking at the spreadsheet ratios? First, I will look at the dividend yield. This yield is currently over 5% and the 5 year average is just over 2%. Looking at Mike Higgs’ report at www.dividendgrowth.org , he shows that this stock is cheap when compared to the historical average yield and the historical high yield.
When looking at the P/E ratio, the current one is around 10 and the 5 year average is over 15. So this shows that the price of this stock is relatively low. The other thing to look at is the Graham Price. The Graham Price was low in 2008 because of the fall in earnings. However, if earnings this year are at least $1.00, then the current price is at the Graham Price. If the estimate of $1.90 is close, then the current price is some 28% lower than the Graham Price.
First, I note that the Globe Investor site gives this stock a 3 star rating (out of possible 5 stars). Next, the recommendations on this stock go from Strong Buy to Hold. There are lots of Strong Buys and lots of Holds and a small number of Buys. The consensus rating is Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
When looking at the charts, this stock has done worse than both the TSX and the Financial Sub-Index for the periods of YTD, 3 years and 5 years. It is not until you look at the last 10 years that this stock has done as well as the Financial Sub-Index and better than the TSX. This stock has been particularly hard hit by this latest bear market. This stock fell really hard in September 2008.
Part of the problem with this is company is the guarantees they offered for their variable annuities and segregated funds. This gives them a big exposure to the stock market. They did not fully hedge these guarantees, and hedging such guarantees is usually what is done. As I understand it, these guarantees are against the stock market being lower at the end of any 10 year period. However, the chance of this happening is very small. I have discussed this before and you can see my comments at Stock Market Returns Long Term.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. They are an international company, selling in Canada, US and Asia. This company is listed on Canadian, US, Hong Kong and Philippines Stock Exchanges. Its web site is www.manulife.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/mfc.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Is this stock at a good price when looking at the spreadsheet ratios? First, I will look at the dividend yield. This yield is currently over 5% and the 5 year average is just over 2%. Looking at Mike Higgs’ report at www.dividendgrowth.org , he shows that this stock is cheap when compared to the historical average yield and the historical high yield.
When looking at the P/E ratio, the current one is around 10 and the 5 year average is over 15. So this shows that the price of this stock is relatively low. The other thing to look at is the Graham Price. The Graham Price was low in 2008 because of the fall in earnings. However, if earnings this year are at least $1.00, then the current price is at the Graham Price. If the estimate of $1.90 is close, then the current price is some 28% lower than the Graham Price.
First, I note that the Globe Investor site gives this stock a 3 star rating (out of possible 5 stars). Next, the recommendations on this stock go from Strong Buy to Hold. There are lots of Strong Buys and lots of Holds and a small number of Buys. The consensus rating is Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
When looking at the charts, this stock has done worse than both the TSX and the Financial Sub-Index for the periods of YTD, 3 years and 5 years. It is not until you look at the last 10 years that this stock has done as well as the Financial Sub-Index and better than the TSX. This stock has been particularly hard hit by this latest bear market. This stock fell really hard in September 2008.
Part of the problem with this is company is the guarantees they offered for their variable annuities and segregated funds. This gives them a big exposure to the stock market. They did not fully hedge these guarantees, and hedging such guarantees is usually what is done. As I understand it, these guarantees are against the stock market being lower at the end of any 10 year period. However, the chance of this happening is very small. I have discussed this before and you can see my comments at Stock Market Returns Long Term.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. They are an international company, selling in Canada, US and Asia. This company is listed on Canadian, US, Hong Kong and Philippines Stock Exchanges. Its web site is www.manulife.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/mfc.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Manulife Financial
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-MFC) today as I have received its annual report for December 2008. I bought shares in this company in 2005 and 2006. I have lost some 18% per annum on this stock. However, I do expect it to bounce back, so I am not selling. In fact, I am considering buying some more.
The first thing to mention is that this stock is on everyone’s great dividend paying stock lists. This stock is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com, the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices) and also on Mike Higgs’ list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm.
In reviewing the spreadsheet I see that this company is getting some important things right. They have a good increase in revenue and they have a decent cash flow. I realize the earnings are way down, but being able to keep up revenue and cash flow is much more important in tough markets. Low earnings are, of course, a negative, but they will pick up when the economy improves.
I can see why this is on everyone’s list as this stock has had great growth in dividends. In good times, the dividend tended to be a yield of around, or less than 2%, but growth is just under 20% per year over the last 5 years. However, it did slow last year to a 13.6% increase. We do not yet know what sort of increase will occur this year.
The Asset/Liability Ratio at 1.14 is not bad for an insurance company. This is just below the 5 year average of 1.15 and is at the 10 year average of 1.14. Not surprisingly, the Return on Equity (ROE) is low this year as they make little money. One good thing to point out is the Accrual Ratio is negative. The actual ratio is not that negative at only -.1%, but it is negative.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. They are an international company, selling in Canada, US and Asia. This company is listed on Canadian, US, Hong Kong and Philippines Stock Exchanges. Its web site is www.manulife.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/mfc.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
The first thing to mention is that this stock is on everyone’s great dividend paying stock lists. This stock is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com, the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices) and also on Mike Higgs’ list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm.
In reviewing the spreadsheet I see that this company is getting some important things right. They have a good increase in revenue and they have a decent cash flow. I realize the earnings are way down, but being able to keep up revenue and cash flow is much more important in tough markets. Low earnings are, of course, a negative, but they will pick up when the economy improves.
I can see why this is on everyone’s list as this stock has had great growth in dividends. In good times, the dividend tended to be a yield of around, or less than 2%, but growth is just under 20% per year over the last 5 years. However, it did slow last year to a 13.6% increase. We do not yet know what sort of increase will occur this year.
The Asset/Liability Ratio at 1.14 is not bad for an insurance company. This is just below the 5 year average of 1.15 and is at the 10 year average of 1.14. Not surprisingly, the Return on Equity (ROE) is low this year as they make little money. One good thing to point out is the Accrual Ratio is negative. The actual ratio is not that negative at only -.1%, but it is negative.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. They are an international company, selling in Canada, US and Asia. This company is listed on Canadian, US, Hong Kong and Philippines Stock Exchanges. Its web site is www.manulife.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/mfc.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Husky Energy 2
I am continuing my reviewing of this stock (TSX-HSE) today. I am sorry, but yesterday I said this was on Mike Higgs list, but I was mistaken. This stock is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com. I have gone over the dividends again on this stock. The dividend I received in January on this stock was at $.50 a share and the next one will be for $.30 a share for a 40% decrease.
However, this company has a habit of increasing and decreasing dividends over a year and they also have a habit of issuing special dividends. If the dividends declared this year does not change, the actual change for this year will be a decrease in dividends by only 10.3%. Dividends received in 2008 were for $1.56 (.33, .33, .40, and .50). Dividends potential for 2009 could be $1.40 (.50, .30, .30, and .30). However, the year is not over yet, so it is hard to tell what the final results will be.
In regards to insider buying and insider selling, there appears to be little of anything going on, except some very minor buying at the end of May in 2008. This tells us nothing. The current yield at 4.1% is slightly higher than the 5 year average of 3.5%. The P/E is hard to judge. If you take current price and last year’s earnings, you get a P/E of less than 7. If you consider what the earnings is expected to be in 2009, which is around $1.40 or so, then, the P/E is around 20. If you consider what the estimate earnings are for 2010, when they are expected to revive a bit, the P/E is about 11, which is about the same as the 5 year average to the last annual report of 2008.
If you look at what the analysts are saying about this stock, it has recommendations from Strong Buy to Sell, the whole gamut. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) It’s really a toss-up between a Buy and a Hold for a consensus. A thing to mention is that the Globe investor site gives this stock a 5 star rating. This basically means it is best in its class. As far as I can see, nothing really stands out in this stock. It seems neither to be a bad stock, nor one at a good price. I will hold my small amount of this stock for now.
This company is one of Canada's largest energy and energy-related companies. The Company's operations include the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas. Husky works in Western Canada, in off-shore Eastern Canada and in off-shore China and Indonesia. Its web site is www.huskyenergy.ca. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/hse.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
However, this company has a habit of increasing and decreasing dividends over a year and they also have a habit of issuing special dividends. If the dividends declared this year does not change, the actual change for this year will be a decrease in dividends by only 10.3%. Dividends received in 2008 were for $1.56 (.33, .33, .40, and .50). Dividends potential for 2009 could be $1.40 (.50, .30, .30, and .30). However, the year is not over yet, so it is hard to tell what the final results will be.
In regards to insider buying and insider selling, there appears to be little of anything going on, except some very minor buying at the end of May in 2008. This tells us nothing. The current yield at 4.1% is slightly higher than the 5 year average of 3.5%. The P/E is hard to judge. If you take current price and last year’s earnings, you get a P/E of less than 7. If you consider what the earnings is expected to be in 2009, which is around $1.40 or so, then, the P/E is around 20. If you consider what the estimate earnings are for 2010, when they are expected to revive a bit, the P/E is about 11, which is about the same as the 5 year average to the last annual report of 2008.
If you look at what the analysts are saying about this stock, it has recommendations from Strong Buy to Sell, the whole gamut. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) It’s really a toss-up between a Buy and a Hold for a consensus. A thing to mention is that the Globe investor site gives this stock a 5 star rating. This basically means it is best in its class. As far as I can see, nothing really stands out in this stock. It seems neither to be a bad stock, nor one at a good price. I will hold my small amount of this stock for now.
This company is one of Canada's largest energy and energy-related companies. The Company's operations include the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas. Husky works in Western Canada, in off-shore Eastern Canada and in off-shore China and Indonesia. Its web site is www.huskyenergy.ca. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/hse.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Husky Energy
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-HSE) today as I have received its annual report for December 2008. I have a very small position in this company as it is into oil and gas. Since our TSX has a high number of energy companies, I like to keep tabs on what they are doing. This is a stock that is on Mike Higgs’ list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm.
I only bought this stock in 2008 and it has gone down ever since. The company has announced that the dividend is being reduced. This is not surprising as oil prices have fallen. When I last reviewed this stock in July 2008, I got an earnings estimate of $5.00 for 2008. The earnings for this stock came in at $4.42. Since my July review, the earnings estimates were lower at the end of March. Since that time, new estimates have come in even lower and this company is expected to earn less than $2.00 in 2009. The cash flow estimates are also quite low.
For this stock all the growth figures for Revenues, Cash Flow, dividend increases, earnings and Book Value are all quite good to December 2008 annual report. However, this company obviously had problems in the 4th quarter of 2008. They only made $.27 a share in this quarter compared with $1.26 a share in the same quarter the previous year. They were affected by commodity price declines. Because of this, they reduced their dividend by 40%. They also shelved some oil sands projects.
Tomorrow I will look at what the analyst say.
This company is one of Canada's largest energy and energy-related companies. The Company's operations include the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas. Husky works in Western Canada, in off-shore Eastern Canada and in off-shore China and Indonesia. Its web site is www.huskyenergy.ca. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/hse.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
I only bought this stock in 2008 and it has gone down ever since. The company has announced that the dividend is being reduced. This is not surprising as oil prices have fallen. When I last reviewed this stock in July 2008, I got an earnings estimate of $5.00 for 2008. The earnings for this stock came in at $4.42. Since my July review, the earnings estimates were lower at the end of March. Since that time, new estimates have come in even lower and this company is expected to earn less than $2.00 in 2009. The cash flow estimates are also quite low.
For this stock all the growth figures for Revenues, Cash Flow, dividend increases, earnings and Book Value are all quite good to December 2008 annual report. However, this company obviously had problems in the 4th quarter of 2008. They only made $.27 a share in this quarter compared with $1.26 a share in the same quarter the previous year. They were affected by commodity price declines. Because of this, they reduced their dividend by 40%. They also shelved some oil sands projects.
Tomorrow I will look at what the analyst say.
This company is one of Canada's largest energy and energy-related companies. The Company's operations include the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas. Husky works in Western Canada, in off-shore Eastern Canada and in off-shore China and Indonesia. Its web site is www.huskyenergy.ca. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/hse.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Blink by Malcolm Gladwell
The full title of this book is Blink, The Power of Thinking Without Thinking, by Malcolm Gladwell. Gladwell had also written two other books that I have read called The Tipping Point and the Outliers. His books are very easy reads and you always learn something. Usually, we find out something very interesting about us humans.
One thing you might find interesting is Chapter 6, The Delicate Art of Mind Reading. It gives the science behind the new TV show, Lie to Me. He talks about Silvan Tomkins and Paul Ekman classifying facial expressions. They also talk about what all these expression mean. These are facial expressions that cross all racial and ethnic groups. There are times when people can be very good at picking up on facial expressions and time when they are not. It is basically when we are under stress, when our adrenalin is flowing that we can be particularly bad at this. So, you can learn to be cautious about the time when you can be bad about picking up on facial expressions. Another interesting thing is that you can also learn to be better at picking up on facial expressions.
This book is also about decision making. Sometimes we are better off going with our gut instincts or our unconscious mind than putting a lot of effort into thinking about what we want or want to do. It is ironic that we are better off doing a lot of thinking about the small decisions than with the big decisions. The small things may be buying kitchen accessories. The big things may be buying furniture or deciding where to live.
Malcolm Gladwell also points out that often what people say they want and what they actually want can be very different. When people at a speed dating session were asked what they wanted in a date and asked to fill out a questionnaire on this, they had no problems in filling it out. However, who they really turned out to like was very different that what they said. Speed dating can work because people can tell very quickly if they like a person or not.
He also talks about the Pepsi challenge. Apparently, if people take a sip of a drink, they like the sweeter one. This is why Pepsi wins the Pepsi challenge. Pepsi is sweeter than Coke. The problem is people will have a different opinion about the drinks of Pepsi and Coke if they drink a whole can. This is why the new coke, which was sweeter than regular coke, failed so badly.
You can find reviews on this book on Wikipedia at en.wikipedia.org You can see a discussion on this book and its topic at homerdixon.com. There is another review at about.com.
Malcolm Gladwell has his own site at www.gladwell.com. On this site, he talks about his three books of The Tipping Point, Outliers, and Blink. Also on this site, he has his New Yorker magazine articles, his Blog, and his biography. Wikipedia has an article on him at en.wikipedia.org and he is at TED at www.ted.com. He is also on YouTube.
This book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at www.spbrunner.com/books.html. Also on my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See gladwell2.
One thing you might find interesting is Chapter 6, The Delicate Art of Mind Reading. It gives the science behind the new TV show, Lie to Me. He talks about Silvan Tomkins and Paul Ekman classifying facial expressions. They also talk about what all these expression mean. These are facial expressions that cross all racial and ethnic groups. There are times when people can be very good at picking up on facial expressions and time when they are not. It is basically when we are under stress, when our adrenalin is flowing that we can be particularly bad at this. So, you can learn to be cautious about the time when you can be bad about picking up on facial expressions. Another interesting thing is that you can also learn to be better at picking up on facial expressions.
This book is also about decision making. Sometimes we are better off going with our gut instincts or our unconscious mind than putting a lot of effort into thinking about what we want or want to do. It is ironic that we are better off doing a lot of thinking about the small decisions than with the big decisions. The small things may be buying kitchen accessories. The big things may be buying furniture or deciding where to live.
Malcolm Gladwell also points out that often what people say they want and what they actually want can be very different. When people at a speed dating session were asked what they wanted in a date and asked to fill out a questionnaire on this, they had no problems in filling it out. However, who they really turned out to like was very different that what they said. Speed dating can work because people can tell very quickly if they like a person or not.
He also talks about the Pepsi challenge. Apparently, if people take a sip of a drink, they like the sweeter one. This is why Pepsi wins the Pepsi challenge. Pepsi is sweeter than Coke. The problem is people will have a different opinion about the drinks of Pepsi and Coke if they drink a whole can. This is why the new coke, which was sweeter than regular coke, failed so badly.
You can find reviews on this book on Wikipedia at en.wikipedia.org You can see a discussion on this book and its topic at homerdixon.com. There is another review at about.com.
Malcolm Gladwell has his own site at www.gladwell.com. On this site, he talks about his three books of The Tipping Point, Outliers, and Blink. Also on this site, he has his New Yorker magazine articles, his Blog, and his biography. Wikipedia has an article on him at en.wikipedia.org and he is at TED at www.ted.com. He is also on YouTube.
This book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at www.spbrunner.com/books.html. Also on my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See gladwell2.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
TransCanada Corp 2
I am completing my review of this stock (TSX-TRP) today. This stock is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com and also on Mike Higgs’ list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm. There appears to lots of insider selling on this stock in the past year. Currently, stock options issued are being sold also. This is not a good sign.
According to Globeinvestor, this is a 5 star company. There are ratings on this stock from Strong Buy to Hold. There are a lot of Strong Buys, but the consensus rating is a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) No one seems to expect this company to make as much in 2009 as it did in 2008, both in terms of earnings and in terms of cash flow. Things are expected to turn up in 2010. However, no one expected the earnings of $2.52 in 2008 either.
Next, I will look at the ratios of the spreadsheet. The yield is now 5% and the 5 year average is 3.6%, so this is good. Along with this yield, I show payout ratios and they are in line for expected earnings and cash flow for 2009 and 2010. This means that there should be no problem with dividend payments for this stock. The P/E ratios for 2009 and 2010 are expected to be 13 and 11.6, and these are lower than the 5 year average of 15.6. The trailing P/E for 2009 and 2010 are also lower than the 5 year averages for trailing P/E ratios.
The other indicator to look at to see if the current price is good is the Graham Price. The current price of this stock is almost 14% lower than the Graham Price for 2008. The current price is also lower than the potential Graham Price for 2009. The only real concern I have is that the Asset/Liability Ratio is lower than the 5 or 10 year average for this stock.
Looking at the charts, this stock has done better than the TSX and the Utilities Indexes for the periods of 3, 5 and 10 years. The Utilities Index has also done better than the TSX also over these periods. For the 1 year period, this stock is between these indexes and the Utilities Index has done the best. If you look at this stock in the YTD charts, it is between these indexes, but the TSX Index has done the best. If you look at the technical analysis, the stock price has moved lower than the 200 day moving average. This is a long term bearish move.
TransCanada Corp has two business sections of pipelines and energy. It has pipelines are in Canada, the United States and Mexico. Power operations, natural gas storage and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the energy part of their business. They also have an interest in nuclear power plants (Bruce) in Ontario. Its web site is www.transcanada.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/trp.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
According to Globeinvestor, this is a 5 star company. There are ratings on this stock from Strong Buy to Hold. There are a lot of Strong Buys, but the consensus rating is a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) No one seems to expect this company to make as much in 2009 as it did in 2008, both in terms of earnings and in terms of cash flow. Things are expected to turn up in 2010. However, no one expected the earnings of $2.52 in 2008 either.
Next, I will look at the ratios of the spreadsheet. The yield is now 5% and the 5 year average is 3.6%, so this is good. Along with this yield, I show payout ratios and they are in line for expected earnings and cash flow for 2009 and 2010. This means that there should be no problem with dividend payments for this stock. The P/E ratios for 2009 and 2010 are expected to be 13 and 11.6, and these are lower than the 5 year average of 15.6. The trailing P/E for 2009 and 2010 are also lower than the 5 year averages for trailing P/E ratios.
The other indicator to look at to see if the current price is good is the Graham Price. The current price of this stock is almost 14% lower than the Graham Price for 2008. The current price is also lower than the potential Graham Price for 2009. The only real concern I have is that the Asset/Liability Ratio is lower than the 5 or 10 year average for this stock.
Looking at the charts, this stock has done better than the TSX and the Utilities Indexes for the periods of 3, 5 and 10 years. The Utilities Index has also done better than the TSX also over these periods. For the 1 year period, this stock is between these indexes and the Utilities Index has done the best. If you look at this stock in the YTD charts, it is between these indexes, but the TSX Index has done the best. If you look at the technical analysis, the stock price has moved lower than the 200 day moving average. This is a long term bearish move.
TransCanada Corp has two business sections of pipelines and energy. It has pipelines are in Canada, the United States and Mexico. Power operations, natural gas storage and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the energy part of their business. They also have an interest in nuclear power plants (Bruce) in Ontario. Its web site is www.transcanada.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/trp.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
TransCanada Corp
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-TRP) today as I have received its annual report for December 2008. I first bought this stock in 2000 for my Trading Account. I bought some more in 2006. To date I have made a return of 11.4% per year. I also bought this stock for my RRSP Accounts in 2006. Since the price of this stock is back to where it was in 2006, I have not make any money on this stock in those accounts. This is not surprising as we are in a severe bear market.
The first thing to mention is that this stock is on a couple of the dividend paying stock lists I talk about. This stock is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com and also on Mike Higgs’ list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm.
This is one of my favorite stocks and it comprises almost 5% of my portfolio. When I looked at last in July 2008, the EPS estimate for 2008 was given as $2.25. The Earnings came in at $2.52. I note that the earnings estimates are still low for 2009 and 2010. This stock will probably not pick up in value until earnings estimates are higher.
I consider this stock one of my solid utility stocks and I expect over the long term to make about 8% per year on it. The dividend on this stock has already been raised by 5.6% this year, which is in line with the 5 year average of 5.9% per year. Both the revenue and the earnings have been increasing, but not strongly. What is of some concern is that the cash flow decreased for the year ending in 2008 and the lower than average Asset/Liability Ratio. However, this ratio at 1.11 is still above 1.00, that means that the Assets and cover the Liabilities.
The Return on Equity (ROE) is not bad for either 2008 and the 5 year average. These figures are, respectively, 11.2% and 12.7%. The Accrual Ratio is rather high at over 13%, however, if you also include the Financial Cash Flow is comes down to a more reasonable 1.9%. Tomorrow, I will look and see what the analysts are saying about this stock.
TransCanada Corp have two business sections of pipelines and energy. TransCanada's pipelines are in Canada, the United States and Mexico. Power operations, natural gas storage and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the energy part of their business. They have an interest in nuclear power plants (Bruce) in Ontario. Its web site is www.transcanada.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/trp.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
The first thing to mention is that this stock is on a couple of the dividend paying stock lists I talk about. This stock is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com and also on Mike Higgs’ list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm.
This is one of my favorite stocks and it comprises almost 5% of my portfolio. When I looked at last in July 2008, the EPS estimate for 2008 was given as $2.25. The Earnings came in at $2.52. I note that the earnings estimates are still low for 2009 and 2010. This stock will probably not pick up in value until earnings estimates are higher.
I consider this stock one of my solid utility stocks and I expect over the long term to make about 8% per year on it. The dividend on this stock has already been raised by 5.6% this year, which is in line with the 5 year average of 5.9% per year. Both the revenue and the earnings have been increasing, but not strongly. What is of some concern is that the cash flow decreased for the year ending in 2008 and the lower than average Asset/Liability Ratio. However, this ratio at 1.11 is still above 1.00, that means that the Assets and cover the Liabilities.
The Return on Equity (ROE) is not bad for either 2008 and the 5 year average. These figures are, respectively, 11.2% and 12.7%. The Accrual Ratio is rather high at over 13%, however, if you also include the Financial Cash Flow is comes down to a more reasonable 1.9%. Tomorrow, I will look and see what the analysts are saying about this stock.
TransCanada Corp have two business sections of pipelines and energy. TransCanada's pipelines are in Canada, the United States and Mexico. Power operations, natural gas storage and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the energy part of their business. They have an interest in nuclear power plants (Bruce) in Ontario. Its web site is www.transcanada.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/trp.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
State Of Dividends 1st Quarter 2009 Part 2
Yesterday, I put up a spreadsheet (see dividend income spreadsheet) showing two things about my dividend income for the 1st quarter of 2009. The first column called “Div Q1” and the second is called “09”. Under “Div Q1”, I have recorded the dividend increase for that particular stock for 2009 compared to 2008. In the second column of “09”, I have recorded if the company actually declared a dividend increase during the 1st Quarter of 2009. I had left in the dividend increase information for 2008. I have now included dividend information for 2007.
As I understand, this current bear market started in October 2007. When I looked at dividend increases in 2008, the first year of this bear market, some stopped their increases, some slowed down their increases, and other carried on as before. We are now in the 2nd year of this bear market and you start to see companies that decrease or eliminate their dividends. I talked yesterday about the companies I have that decreased their dividends.
There are few companies that are carrying on as before. They particularly stand out and they are Enbridge Inc (TSX-ENB); Metro Inc (TSX-MRU.A); SNC-Lavalin (TSX-SNC); and Thompson Reuters Corp (TSX-TRI). If you look at the figures for these three years and the 5 year averages, both Enbridge Inc’s and Thompson Reuters Corp’s dividend increases seemed to have picked up in 2008. Of course, the year has just begun and some companies increase their dividends more than once during a year.
Others, like Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR) have not done badly. They have raised their dividends by almost 10% for each of the last two years. Companies like Power Financial (TSX-PWF) usually raise their dividends more than once in a year, so their first increase at 5% may not be the whole story for 2009. Others like Fortis (TSX-FTS), usually raise their dividends only once in a year. Their increase at 4% is below their 5 year average of 10%. However, they raised their dividends by over 20% in both 2007 and 2008. So they have not done badly either.
The sort of thing I am discussing with dividends paying companies is rather normal for a bear market. For companies that usually increase their dividends, their increases will slow down and if the bear market goes on long enough, they will stop increasing their dividends. Some will have to decrease, or temporarily halt their dividends. Most dividend paying companies do not like to halt or decrease their dividends. It can have an awful affect on their stock price. Companies that are on such lists as the Dividend Aristocrat or Dividend Achievers lists that I have discussed before, would be reluctant to stop increases to their dividends so they can stay on such lists.
However, companies may have no choice. If their balance sheet become weak or do not have the cash flow, they may have to do the prudent thing. After all, it is the companies that survive that will be able to deliver to the shareholders good dividends in the future. After the next quarter is finished, I will review these dividend increases and decreases again.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
As I understand, this current bear market started in October 2007. When I looked at dividend increases in 2008, the first year of this bear market, some stopped their increases, some slowed down their increases, and other carried on as before. We are now in the 2nd year of this bear market and you start to see companies that decrease or eliminate their dividends. I talked yesterday about the companies I have that decreased their dividends.
There are few companies that are carrying on as before. They particularly stand out and they are Enbridge Inc (TSX-ENB); Metro Inc (TSX-MRU.A); SNC-Lavalin (TSX-SNC); and Thompson Reuters Corp (TSX-TRI). If you look at the figures for these three years and the 5 year averages, both Enbridge Inc’s and Thompson Reuters Corp’s dividend increases seemed to have picked up in 2008. Of course, the year has just begun and some companies increase their dividends more than once during a year.
Others, like Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR) have not done badly. They have raised their dividends by almost 10% for each of the last two years. Companies like Power Financial (TSX-PWF) usually raise their dividends more than once in a year, so their first increase at 5% may not be the whole story for 2009. Others like Fortis (TSX-FTS), usually raise their dividends only once in a year. Their increase at 4% is below their 5 year average of 10%. However, they raised their dividends by over 20% in both 2007 and 2008. So they have not done badly either.
The sort of thing I am discussing with dividends paying companies is rather normal for a bear market. For companies that usually increase their dividends, their increases will slow down and if the bear market goes on long enough, they will stop increasing their dividends. Some will have to decrease, or temporarily halt their dividends. Most dividend paying companies do not like to halt or decrease their dividends. It can have an awful affect on their stock price. Companies that are on such lists as the Dividend Aristocrat or Dividend Achievers lists that I have discussed before, would be reluctant to stop increases to their dividends so they can stay on such lists.
However, companies may have no choice. If their balance sheet become weak or do not have the cash flow, they may have to do the prudent thing. After all, it is the companies that survive that will be able to deliver to the shareholders good dividends in the future. After the next quarter is finished, I will review these dividend increases and decreases again.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.
Monday, April 6, 2009
State Of Dividends 1st Quarter 2009
Today, I am putting up a spreadsheet (see dividend income spreadsheet) showing two things about my dividend income for the 1st quarter of 2009. The first column called “Div Q1” and the second is called “09”. Under “Div Q1”, I have recorded the dividend increase for that particular stock for 2009 compared to 2008. In the second column of “09”, I have recorded if the company actually declared a dividend increase during the 1st Quarter of 2009. I have left in the dividend increase information for 2008.
The “Div Q1” column probably needs some explanation. First, take the company Emera (TSX-EMA). My dividend from them was 4.7% higher in 2009 then in 2008. However, Emera have not yet declared a dividend increase for 2009. They did declare a dividend increase in November 2008. So the dividends I will receive in 2009 were those declared as of November 2008. So while I will get more money in dividends from them in 2009, they have not actually yet declared a dividend increase for 2009.
In 2008, I got dividends from them in February, May, August and November at the per share rate of $.2375, $.2375, $.2375, and $.2525 for a total of $.965 per share. In 2009, I have gotten 1 dividend from then in February of $.2525 per share and if this continues for 2009, I will get from them a total of $1.01 per share in dividends. Going from $.965 per share to $1.01 per share for year gives me an increase in dividends of 4.7%.
On my list, I have 9 companies that have increased their dividends already in 2009. I also have 5 companies that have decreased their dividends. The rest have not yet made changes, but I do know that at least a further of 2 of my companies have already declared dividend increases for 2009. On an annual basis, if I still have the same portfolio now as I did in 2008, my dividends have increased overall by 1.9%. My total projected income for 2009 has gone up 7.25%. I have been buying stocks over the last 3 months with the cash I have for investing. Currently, dividends are higher than interest rates and this is why my total income for 2009 has gone up 7.25%.
I am showing 5 dividends decreases, so let’s talk about them. The first one is Barclays bank (NYSE-BCS). This is the only foreign stock I own and it is an ADR. Barclays has been giving out dividends twice a year, in April and October. When they gave out dividends, they gave a much bigger dividend in April than in October. They were hard to plan for, as you never knew exactly what you would get. However, the dividends tended to increase each year. Barclays has announced that it will not be paying a dividend in April of 2009. However, this is a temporary measure, and they will resume dividends in the 2nd half of 2009, but on a quarterly basis. There is no indication of what the dividends will be.
The next to talk about is BFI Canada (TSX-BFC). This company has gone from a unit trust to a stock company. The dividend has gone down from $1.82 a share per year, paid monthly, to dividend of $.50 a share per year paid quarterly. This sort of thing will probably occur to any company that stops being a unit trust.
The next company is Melcor Development (TSX-MRD). This company has a long history of yearly increases to their dividends. They pay dividends semi-annually in June and December. Last year they paid $.25 a share in June, but only $.17 a share in December. However, this meant that they increased their dividends from $.40 a share in 2007 to $.42 a share in 2008. Since the company has not stated yet what they will do for dividends this year, it is being assumed that the June dividend will be at $.17. However, since they are on dividend achiever’s lists, they might just increase their dividends this year, or at least not decrease them. At the moment, I do not know.
The next company is Penn West Energy (TSX-PWT.UN). This company is an oil and gas producer. Prices for these products have come down, so it is no surprise the dividends have decreased. Dividends on this company have always changed with the prices of oil and gas. Dividends on oil and gas company tend to fluctuate.
The last one to talk about is Russel Metals (TSX-RUS). This company has reduced dividends because of the current economic recession. It is being prudent. This is not a bad decision for the stockholders. After all, we will not get much if a company does not survive a recession. It is the companies that survive than live to pay us further dividends. This stock was on the Dividend Achiever’s list, I just checked, and it is still there. However, I doubt if it will stay. This company only started to pay dividends in 2000 and over the last 5 years has raised it dividends by over 40% annually up to 2008. If you look at the last 5 years and the 2009 dividend, then for the last 5 years it has been raising it dividend by just over 7% annually. This is not a particularity bad figure. I bought this company to diversify away from financials and utility companies. I will continue to hold it for now.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
The “Div Q1” column probably needs some explanation. First, take the company Emera (TSX-EMA). My dividend from them was 4.7% higher in 2009 then in 2008. However, Emera have not yet declared a dividend increase for 2009. They did declare a dividend increase in November 2008. So the dividends I will receive in 2009 were those declared as of November 2008. So while I will get more money in dividends from them in 2009, they have not actually yet declared a dividend increase for 2009.
In 2008, I got dividends from them in February, May, August and November at the per share rate of $.2375, $.2375, $.2375, and $.2525 for a total of $.965 per share. In 2009, I have gotten 1 dividend from then in February of $.2525 per share and if this continues for 2009, I will get from them a total of $1.01 per share in dividends. Going from $.965 per share to $1.01 per share for year gives me an increase in dividends of 4.7%.
On my list, I have 9 companies that have increased their dividends already in 2009. I also have 5 companies that have decreased their dividends. The rest have not yet made changes, but I do know that at least a further of 2 of my companies have already declared dividend increases for 2009. On an annual basis, if I still have the same portfolio now as I did in 2008, my dividends have increased overall by 1.9%. My total projected income for 2009 has gone up 7.25%. I have been buying stocks over the last 3 months with the cash I have for investing. Currently, dividends are higher than interest rates and this is why my total income for 2009 has gone up 7.25%.
I am showing 5 dividends decreases, so let’s talk about them. The first one is Barclays bank (NYSE-BCS). This is the only foreign stock I own and it is an ADR. Barclays has been giving out dividends twice a year, in April and October. When they gave out dividends, they gave a much bigger dividend in April than in October. They were hard to plan for, as you never knew exactly what you would get. However, the dividends tended to increase each year. Barclays has announced that it will not be paying a dividend in April of 2009. However, this is a temporary measure, and they will resume dividends in the 2nd half of 2009, but on a quarterly basis. There is no indication of what the dividends will be.
The next to talk about is BFI Canada (TSX-BFC). This company has gone from a unit trust to a stock company. The dividend has gone down from $1.82 a share per year, paid monthly, to dividend of $.50 a share per year paid quarterly. This sort of thing will probably occur to any company that stops being a unit trust.
The next company is Melcor Development (TSX-MRD). This company has a long history of yearly increases to their dividends. They pay dividends semi-annually in June and December. Last year they paid $.25 a share in June, but only $.17 a share in December. However, this meant that they increased their dividends from $.40 a share in 2007 to $.42 a share in 2008. Since the company has not stated yet what they will do for dividends this year, it is being assumed that the June dividend will be at $.17. However, since they are on dividend achiever’s lists, they might just increase their dividends this year, or at least not decrease them. At the moment, I do not know.
The next company is Penn West Energy (TSX-PWT.UN). This company is an oil and gas producer. Prices for these products have come down, so it is no surprise the dividends have decreased. Dividends on this company have always changed with the prices of oil and gas. Dividends on oil and gas company tend to fluctuate.
The last one to talk about is Russel Metals (TSX-RUS). This company has reduced dividends because of the current economic recession. It is being prudent. This is not a bad decision for the stockholders. After all, we will not get much if a company does not survive a recession. It is the companies that survive than live to pay us further dividends. This stock was on the Dividend Achiever’s list, I just checked, and it is still there. However, I doubt if it will stay. This company only started to pay dividends in 2000 and over the last 5 years has raised it dividends by over 40% annually up to 2008. If you look at the last 5 years and the 2009 dividend, then for the last 5 years it has been raising it dividend by just over 7% annually. This is not a particularity bad figure. I bought this company to diversify away from financials and utility companies. I will continue to hold it for now.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Friday, April 3, 2009
IGM Financial 2
I am continuing my review of this stock (TSX-IGM) today. The first thing to deal with is Insider Buying and Selling. There has been no insider buying during the past year. There has been lots of insider selling. In the main, this insider selling has been by Canada Life and Great West Life companies. These companies are controlled by Power Corp, the same as IGM is. The one insider selling that is more worrisome is that done by the CFO. He sold at the low point in March.
Is this stock at a good price when you look at the ratios? First, I will look at the yield ratio. The current yield is over 6% and the 5 year average is 3.6%. This yield points to the stock price as being at a good price. The next ratio I looked was at the P/E. The current P/E is about 14 and the 5 year average is 15. This is not a really low P/E, but it is lower than the 5 year average. Also, the trailing P/E of 12 is lower than the 5 year average of 17. The trailing P/E is a more accurate figure, as the current P/E is just based on last year’s earnings, this years estimate earnings, or last 12 months earnings.
The next thing to deal with is the Graham Price. This stock is usually quite a bit higher than the Graham Price is. However, with the recent bear market, the stock price has become quite close to the Graham Price. Since one of the things the Graham Price depends on is the earnings, if the earnings fall, then the Graham Price will fall also. The earnings estimates show that they are expected to fall.
The next thing I want to note is that the Globe Investor site gives this stock a 4 star rating out of a possible 5 stars. In looking at the ratings for this stock, they range from Strong Buy to Sell, with most of the ratings from Strong Buy to Hold. However, the consensus rating is a Buy that is very close to a Hold. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
When looking at the charts, this company is between the TSX and the TSX Financial indexes, with the TSX being on top for the year to date, 3 year and 5 year periods. If you look at 10 years, then it is between these indexes, with the TSX Financial being on top. However, over the past year, this stock beats both these indexes. What this seems to tell you is that you will probably do as well as the TSX over the long term. Plus, you will get dividends that run just over 3% a year.
As I said yesterday, the only negative thing I found was a high Accrual Ratio. It was 5.5% and anything over 5 is high. I was reading an analyst yesterday who said that he makes it a rule never to buy any stock where there is insider selling and there is lots of insider selling on this stock. I do not know the reason for it, but there is a lot. The other thing is that the current price is not that great for this stock. Because most analysts seem to feel that the earnings will go down over the next two years, the stock price will tend not to do well. The stock price will probably pick up when analysts feel that the earnings will improve. So, if you like this stock, it may not be the time yet to buy.
This is a premier mutual fund, managed asset and personal financial services company. The company has three operating units, Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation and Investment Planning Counsel Inc. Its web site is www.igmfinancial.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/igm.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Is this stock at a good price when you look at the ratios? First, I will look at the yield ratio. The current yield is over 6% and the 5 year average is 3.6%. This yield points to the stock price as being at a good price. The next ratio I looked was at the P/E. The current P/E is about 14 and the 5 year average is 15. This is not a really low P/E, but it is lower than the 5 year average. Also, the trailing P/E of 12 is lower than the 5 year average of 17. The trailing P/E is a more accurate figure, as the current P/E is just based on last year’s earnings, this years estimate earnings, or last 12 months earnings.
The next thing to deal with is the Graham Price. This stock is usually quite a bit higher than the Graham Price is. However, with the recent bear market, the stock price has become quite close to the Graham Price. Since one of the things the Graham Price depends on is the earnings, if the earnings fall, then the Graham Price will fall also. The earnings estimates show that they are expected to fall.
The next thing I want to note is that the Globe Investor site gives this stock a 4 star rating out of a possible 5 stars. In looking at the ratings for this stock, they range from Strong Buy to Sell, with most of the ratings from Strong Buy to Hold. However, the consensus rating is a Buy that is very close to a Hold. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)
When looking at the charts, this company is between the TSX and the TSX Financial indexes, with the TSX being on top for the year to date, 3 year and 5 year periods. If you look at 10 years, then it is between these indexes, with the TSX Financial being on top. However, over the past year, this stock beats both these indexes. What this seems to tell you is that you will probably do as well as the TSX over the long term. Plus, you will get dividends that run just over 3% a year.
As I said yesterday, the only negative thing I found was a high Accrual Ratio. It was 5.5% and anything over 5 is high. I was reading an analyst yesterday who said that he makes it a rule never to buy any stock where there is insider selling and there is lots of insider selling on this stock. I do not know the reason for it, but there is a lot. The other thing is that the current price is not that great for this stock. Because most analysts seem to feel that the earnings will go down over the next two years, the stock price will tend not to do well. The stock price will probably pick up when analysts feel that the earnings will improve. So, if you like this stock, it may not be the time yet to buy.
This is a premier mutual fund, managed asset and personal financial services company. The company has three operating units, Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation and Investment Planning Counsel Inc. Its web site is www.igmfinancial.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/igm.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
IGM Financial
I am reviewing this stock (TSX-IGM) today as I have just received its annual report. I bought this stock in 2006, and so far, I have only lost money on it. This is not surprising as our market is back to prices that were last seen in about 2004. When I last look at this stock in August 2008, I got earnings estimates of around $3.25. The earnings come in lower at $2.78 undiluted. Earnings estimates are coming in at a lower level for 2009 and 2010. The stock price will not really pick up until analysts start to think that the earnings will pick up.
The first thing to mention is that this stock is on everyone’s great dividend paying stock lists. This stock is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com, the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices) and also on Mike Higgs’ list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm. This is because the dividends have been growing at just over 15% per year for the last 5 years. Also, the yield on this stock has been good, as it has been averaging around 3% per year.
A lot of the growth figures on this stock are good, but very few are great, especially for the last 5 years. What has been good is the growth in dividends, the Asset/Liabilities Ratio (which is at 2.01) and the Return on Equity (ROE). When we are in a bear market, the Asset/Liabilities Ratio is very important and anything over 1.50 is good. This stock has this ratio at 2.01. This means that they have twice the assets needed to pay off the liabilities. What this means is that this company will very much survive the current bear market. The ROE for 2008 was 17.7% and the 5 year average was 19.6%. These are also good figures.
The only real negative thing that I see is the Accrual Ratio is high at 5.57%. The problem is that the cash flow from operations is lower than the net income. What you want to see is the opposite. I lot of people have very much liked this stock over the years. It is part of the Power Corp group of companies and their companies tend to be run well. I am certainly going to hold on to my stock at the present.
This is a premier mutual fund, managed asset and personal financial services company. The company has three operating units, Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation and Investment Planning Counsel Inc. Its web site is www.igmfinancial.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/igm.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
The first thing to mention is that this stock is on everyone’s great dividend paying stock lists. This stock is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com, the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices) and also on Mike Higgs’ list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm. This is because the dividends have been growing at just over 15% per year for the last 5 years. Also, the yield on this stock has been good, as it has been averaging around 3% per year.
A lot of the growth figures on this stock are good, but very few are great, especially for the last 5 years. What has been good is the growth in dividends, the Asset/Liabilities Ratio (which is at 2.01) and the Return on Equity (ROE). When we are in a bear market, the Asset/Liabilities Ratio is very important and anything over 1.50 is good. This stock has this ratio at 2.01. This means that they have twice the assets needed to pay off the liabilities. What this means is that this company will very much survive the current bear market. The ROE for 2008 was 17.7% and the 5 year average was 19.6%. These are also good figures.
The only real negative thing that I see is the Accrual Ratio is high at 5.57%. The problem is that the cash flow from operations is lower than the net income. What you want to see is the opposite. I lot of people have very much liked this stock over the years. It is part of the Power Corp group of companies and their companies tend to be run well. I am certainly going to hold on to my stock at the present.
This is a premier mutual fund, managed asset and personal financial services company. The company has three operating units, Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation and Investment Planning Counsel Inc. Its web site is www.igmfinancial.com. See my spreadsheet on this company at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/igm.htm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Wars, Guns and Votes by Paul Collier
The full title of this book is Wars, Guns, and Votes - Democracy in Dangerous Places. Collier had also written another book that I have read called The Bottom Billion. I also wrote a review of the book, the Bottom Billion.
One of the things Paul Collier talks about is that in places that are very poor and violent, having the international community or the US come in and force a vote solves nothing. The place will still be poor and violent. Well, duh! I would have thought that being a Brit, Paul Collier would know, at least some of British history and not assume places will be fixed with a free vote.
I can understand where the Americans are coming from. They had their revolution, elected their own government, and thought they had found freedom and democracy for themselves. They did not realize what else they had. Britain had the concept of the rights and responsibilities of their citizen, and more important had concept of the rule of law. The British system was not perfect, but it by and large, functioned well. This is why, when they got what we consider democracy, where all citizens had the right to vote, things went smoothly.
Now, in the Americans, the 13 colonies already had such things as the rule of law. They also had experience voting, as there were local voted-in governments. Now, when they kicked out their British rulers, they had no problems. They did not realize what a debt their owned their British forefathers, for without individual rights and responsibilities, and the rule of law, I cannot see how just voting will give anyone decent government. This is, of course, what Paul Collier found out by studying what happen in poor violent countries that got a vote. They did not get decent government. They did not get problems solved.
As with the other book of Paul Collier’s, this book is a very easy read. He does a lot of research and presents the research and possible solutions in a manner this is easy to understand. He talks about more than just democracy and voting. If you want to read a regular review, see timesonline.co.uk. If you want to see his book from an economic perspective, see oxonomics. Paul Collier is also on www.ted.com. If you do a search for Paul Collier, you will find him. He is also very easy to listen to.
This book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at www.spbrunner.com/books.html. Also on my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Wars, Guns, Votes by Paul Collier.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
One of the things Paul Collier talks about is that in places that are very poor and violent, having the international community or the US come in and force a vote solves nothing. The place will still be poor and violent. Well, duh! I would have thought that being a Brit, Paul Collier would know, at least some of British history and not assume places will be fixed with a free vote.
I can understand where the Americans are coming from. They had their revolution, elected their own government, and thought they had found freedom and democracy for themselves. They did not realize what else they had. Britain had the concept of the rights and responsibilities of their citizen, and more important had concept of the rule of law. The British system was not perfect, but it by and large, functioned well. This is why, when they got what we consider democracy, where all citizens had the right to vote, things went smoothly.
Now, in the Americans, the 13 colonies already had such things as the rule of law. They also had experience voting, as there were local voted-in governments. Now, when they kicked out their British rulers, they had no problems. They did not realize what a debt their owned their British forefathers, for without individual rights and responsibilities, and the rule of law, I cannot see how just voting will give anyone decent government. This is, of course, what Paul Collier found out by studying what happen in poor violent countries that got a vote. They did not get decent government. They did not get problems solved.
As with the other book of Paul Collier’s, this book is a very easy read. He does a lot of research and presents the research and possible solutions in a manner this is easy to understand. He talks about more than just democracy and voting. If you want to read a regular review, see timesonline.co.uk. If you want to see his book from an economic perspective, see oxonomics. Paul Collier is also on www.ted.com. If you do a search for Paul Collier, you will find him. He is also very easy to listen to.
This book review and other books I have reviewed are on my website at www.spbrunner.com/books.html. Also on my website is how to find this book on Amazon if you care to purchase it. See Wars, Guns, Votes by Paul Collier.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets on my web site.
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