Toromont Industries Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Toromont Industries Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Why I do like dividend growth stocks like this one? After holding this stock for 17 years from 2008, I have a dividend yield of 10.58% on my original stock purchase. It is because having such stocks in my portfolio that my dividends grow higher than the rate of inflation. My testing is showing that the stock price is probably reasonable.

I own this stock of Toromont Industries Ltd (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list. I bought a number of stocks recommended by Mike Higgs who was an early blogger.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have had this stock for 17 years and I have made a total return of 12.76% per year with 10.91% from capital gains and 1.85% from dividends to end of January 2025.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,026.36 you would have bought 36 shares at $28.51 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $418.68 in dividends. The stock would be worth $4,091.04. Your total return would have been $4.504.72. This would be a total return of 16.89% per year with 14.83% from capital gain and 2.07% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$28.51	$1,026.36	36	10	$418.68	$4,091.04	$4,509.72

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. The dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.56%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 1.52%, 1.53% and 1.68%. The dividend increases are moderate at 12.5% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 11.6%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 31% with 5 year coverage at 30%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 23% with 5 year coverage at 22%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 22% with 5 year coverage at 22%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 37% with 5 year coverage at 35%. There is not agreement on what the FCF is.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	30.51%	30.19%
AEPS	22.92%	21.99%
CFPS	21.83%	21.54%
FCF	37.45%	34.85%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.0.05 and currently at 0.05. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.37 and 2.37 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.54 and 2.54 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.65 and 0.65 and currently at 1.65 and 0.64.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.05	0.05
Intang/GW	0.05	0.05
Liquidity	2.37	2.37
Liq. + CF	2.54	2.85
Debt Ratio	2.54	2.54
Leverage	1.65	1.65
D/E Ratio	0.65	0.65

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	12.45%	11.75%	9.99%	1.75%
2013	10	12.42%	16.89%	14.83%	2.07%
2008	15	11.58%	15.49%	13.49%	2.00%
2003	20	13.11%	13.33%	11.58%	1.75%
1998	25	13.12%	15.35%	13.33%	2.03%
1993	30	15.55%	16.62%	14.32%	2.30%
1990	34	14.56%	22.18%	17.88%	4.30%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share are 17.64, 20.09 and 22.59. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.28, 19.74 and 22.12. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.62, 15.50 and 26.14. The current P/E Ratio is 16.71 based on a stock price of $123.01 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $7.36. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share are 12.79, 15.08 and 16.53. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.95, 15.44 and 17.52. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 19.49 based on a stock price of $123.01 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $6.31. This is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $71.84. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.58 and 1.80. The current ratio is 1.71 based on a stock price of $123.01. The current ratio is between the median and high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.49. The current P/B Ratio is 3.38 based on a stock price of $123.01, Book Value of $2,955M, and Book Value per Share of $36.35. The current ratio is 3% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 19.67. The current P/CF Ratio is 13.40 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $9.18, Cash Flow of $746.34 and a stock price of $123.01. The current ratio is 32% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. (Although I wonder about the Cash Flow per Share estimate as it seems way out of line with past Cash Flows per Shares.)

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.68%. The current dividend yield is 1.56% based on dividends of $1.92 and a stock price of $123.01. The current dividend yield is 7% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.53%. The current dividend yield is 1.56% based on dividends of $1.92 and a stock price of $123.01. The current dividend yield is 2% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.73. The current ratio is 1.93 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $5,185M, Revenue per Share of $63.78 and a stock price of $123.01. The current ratio is 11% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The 10 year dividend yield test says that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio test shows that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. The rest of the testing shows the stock price from cheap to expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (3) and Hold (3). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $137.17 with a high of $150.00 and a low of $130.00. The consensus stock price of $137.17 implies a total return of 13.07% with 11.51% from capital gains and 1.56% from dividends based on a current stock price of $123.01.

Analyst advise ended last year on Stock Chase with a couple of Hold, but this year, so far, there is two buys. Analyst think that if you have this stock, you should add to it. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool say that you should buy and hold forever this magnificent Canadian stock. Motley Fool says that it flies under the radar because of its low dividend, but it makes up for that in growth potential. The company put out a press release via Newswire about its fourth quarter results for 2024.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talks about this company’s dividends. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5. They have one warning of shares are highly illiquid.

Toromont Industries Ltd is a Canadian industrial company. The company operates two business segments: Equipment Group and CIMCO. The company operates majorly in Canada and derives a smaller portion of sales from the United States of America and other regions. Its web site is here Toromont Industries Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was IGM Financial Inc (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF) ... learn more on Friday, February 21, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Build Canada .... learn more on Thursday, February 20, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book How the World Made the West by Josephine Quinn learn more...

IGM Financial Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable but above the median. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high still. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth non-existent. See my spreadsheet on IGM Financial Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock has a good dividend over 5%. Some people think that investing in high dividend stocks, especially for people needing income is a good idea. Personally, I do like dividend growth stocks but when you hold stocks for long times, the companies do go through a number of changes. It is interesting that this stock has been rather cyclical and is coming off it last high. If you like this stock, I would be cautious because even though it is testing as reasonable, it is still above the median.

I do not own this stock of IGM Financial Inc (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF). I am following this stock because I used to own this stock. The stock was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks and on the other Dividend lists at that time. I owned this stock from 2006 to 2011. I sold because I decided to rationalizing my portfolio. Selling ones that did not make it into my core and buying ones that did of the same type. My son still owns this stock. Also, I own Power Corp which in turn owns IGM.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that people who held this stock for the past 10 years have done better to the end of 2024, than to the end of 2023. See the results below of holding this stock for 10 years to the end of 2024 and 2023. For those holding the stock for 10 years to the end of 2023 there was a capital loss and for those holding the stock for 10 years to 2024 there is a capital gain.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,032.75 you would have bought 25 shares at $41.31 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $562.50 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,147.75. Your total return would have been $1,710.25. This would be a total return of 6.28% per year with 1.06% from capital gain and 5.22% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$41.31	$1,032.75	25	10	$562.50	$1,147.75	$1,710.25

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,009.62 you would have bought 18 shares at $56.09 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $403.18 in dividends. The stock would be worth $630.18. Your total return would have been $1,033.38. This would be a total return of 0.28% per year with 4.60% from capital loss and 4.89% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$56.09	$1,009.62	18	10	$403.20	$630.18	$1,033.38

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.07%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also good at 6% and 5.97%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.37%. The last dividend increase was in 2015. I have data for 34 years and of those years the dividends were raised in 21 years, mostly before 2012.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high still. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 57% with 5 year coverage at 57%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is too high at 57% with 5 year coverage at 62%. The DPR for EPS and AEPS is better in the 40% range. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is too high at 54% with 5 year coverage at 63%. The DPR for CFPS is better at 40% or less. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 62% with 5 year coverage at 74%. There is no agreement on what the FCF is.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	57.25%	57.19%
AEPS	56.96%	62.04%
CFPS	54.46%	63.58%
FCF	62.26%	73.96%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.22 and currently at 0.23. However, we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2024 which is good at 0.64 and currently at 0.64 because this is a more important one for a Financial. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.43 and 2.43 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.61 and 1.61 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are fine at 2.63 and 1.63 and currently at 2.63 and 1.63.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.22	0.23
Lg Term R A	0.64	0.64
Intang/GW	0.36	0.37
Liquidity	2.43	2.43
Liq. + CF	3.00	2.68
Debt Ratio	1.61	1.61
Leverage	2.63	2.63
D/E Ratio	1.63	1.63

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	0.00%	9.85%	4.26%	5.59%
2014	10	0.46%	6.28%	1.06%	5.22%
2009	15	0.62%	5.54%	0.53%	5.01%
2004	20	3.41%	6.18%	1.13%	5.04%
1999	25	6.29%	8.92%	3.26%	5.66%
1994	30	9.21%	12.26%	5.71%	6.56%
1990	34	9.59%	16.25%	8.16%	8.10%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.31, 9.58 and 12.17. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.43, 11.24 and 12.69. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.54, 14.90 and 17.39. The current P/E Ratio is 10.27 based on a stock price of $44.40 and EPS estimate for 2025 of 4.33. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.43, 10.27 and 12.61. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.27, 11.20 and 12.88. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 10.14 based on a stock price of $44.40 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $4.38. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $57.10. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.77, 0.93 and 1.07. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.78 based on a stock price of $44.40. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.71. The current P/B Ratio is 1.34 based on a Book Value of $7,870M, Book Value per Share of $33.09 and a stock price of $44.40. The current ratio is 22% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $34.45. This implies a ratio of 1.29 based on a stock price of $44.40 and Book Value of $8,195M. This ratio is 24% below the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 11.64. The current P/CF Ratio is 13.14 based on a stock price of $44.40, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $3.38 and Cash Flow of $804M. The current ratio is 13% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.37%. The current dividend yield is 5.07% based on a stock price of $44.40 and Dividends of $2.25. The current dividend yield is 16% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. However, this test does work better on dividend growth stocks and the dividend on this stock has been flat for some time.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.97%. The current dividend yield is 5.07% based on a stock price of $44.40 and Dividends of $2.25. The current dividend yield is 15% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. However, this test does work better on dividend growth stocks and the dividend on this stock has been flat for some time.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.81. The current P/S Ratio is 2.91 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $6,634M, Revenue per Share of $15.28 and stock price of $44.40. The current ratio is 3% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable but above the median. The 10 year median dividend yield tests says that the price is reasonable but above the median. The problem is that this test is best when dividend increases and not flat like for this stock. The P/S Ratio tests says that the stock price is reasonable and above the median. This is a good test. Most of the rest of the testing is saying that the stock price is reasonable and below the median, with one test saying it is cheap and another reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (1) and Hold (4). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $51.14 with a high of $56.00 and low of $47.00. The consensus stock price of $51.14 implies a total return of 20.25% with 15.18% from capital gains and 5.07% from dividends.

There is only one entry on Stock Chase for this stock in 2024 and the analysts says Do Not Buy, with best stock of POW, GWO and IGM being GWO. Note that POW owns GWO and IGM. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. In 2023, there were more entries and a mix to Buy, Hold and Do Not Buy. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks you should buy this stock for passive income as the dividend is reliable.. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool thinks this is also a good passive income stock. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their fourth quarter for 2024.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talks about the 2024 earnings being in line with analysts’ expectations. Simply Wall Street has no warnings out on this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5.

IGM Financial is the largest non-bank-affiliated asset manager in Canada. The firm is part of the Power Financial group of companies, which holds a 62% equity stake in IGM Financial as well as stakes in Great-West Life, London Life, and Canada Life. IGM has two main operating divisions of asset management and wealth management that provide investment management products and services. Its web site is here IGM Financial Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Toromont Industries Ltd (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 19, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Best Dividends Stocks 2025.... learn more on Tuesday, February 18, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

ARC Resources Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Resource. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be reasonable judging by the P/S Ratio test. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth now increasing. See my spreadsheet on ARC Resources Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a resource stock and therefore has a tendency to be cyclical. It has not yet reach past peaks of June 2008 and June 2014, but it is fairly high for the current cycle. Personally, for cyclical stocks I like to see them relatively closer to their lows than their highs. Most of the tests say that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This is probably accurate.

I do not own this stock of ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF). When TFSA first came out, this stock was recommended for this account as it was an income trust at that point and most of the distributions were taxable. This stock is no longer an income trust and the distributions are now dividends and taxed as normal Canadian dividends.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock used to be an income trust. These stocks have had a hard time getting dividends right. Since changing from an Income Trust in 2011, they did a lot of dividend decreases. In 2021 they started to raise dividends. Dividends are now higher than they were 5 years ago. You probably need to be careful about timing any investment in the company. Look at the returns for 5 and 10 years below.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,006.40 you would have bought 40 shares at $37.44 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $237.84. in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,042.80. Your total return would have been $1,280.64. This would be a total return of 2.72% per year with 0.36% from capital gain and 2.37% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$25.16	$1,006.40	40	10	$237.84	$1,042.80	$1,280.64

However, if you had invested in this company in December 2019, for $1,006.14 you would have bought 123 shares at $8.18 per share. In December 2024, after 5 years you would have received $276.26 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,206.61. Your total return would have been $3,482.87. This would be a total return of 29.26% per year with 26.09% from capital gain and 3.17% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$8.18	$1,006.14	123	5	$276.26	$3,206.61	$3,482.87

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth now increasing. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.86%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also moderate at 2.92% and 3.46%. The historical median dividend yield is high (7% and above) at 7.57%. This company used to be an income trust, which can have high payouts.

All the old income trusts are having a hard time getting their dividend policies right after the switch to corporations. The dividend increase over the past 5 years is 2.5%, but includes a lot of high changes as dividend changes over the past 5 years are from 2020 are -60.00%, 2.50%, 78.86%, 45.45%, and 6.25%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 36% with 5 year coverage at 29%. The DPR for 2024 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is good at 16% with 5 year coverage at 11%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Funds Flow (FFF) is high at 65% with 5 year coverage good at 25%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 16% with 5 year coverage at 11%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 63% with 5 year coverage good at 24%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	36.17%	29.32%
FFO	16.39%	11.34%
FFF	64.76%	25.41%
CFPS	16.22%	11.25%
FCF	63.39%	24.69%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.09 and currently at 0.09. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is low at 1.14 and 1.14 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are good at 3.35 and currently at 4.56. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.54 and 2.54 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.65 and 0.65 and currently at 1.65 and 0.65.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.09	0.09
Intang/GW	0.02	0.02
Liquidity	1.14	1.14
Liq. + CF	3.35	4.56
Debt Ratio	2.54	2.54
Leverage	1.65	1.65
D/E Ratio	0.65	0.65

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	2.53%	29.26%	26.09%	3.17%
2014	10	-5.52%	2.72%	0.36%	2.37%
2009	15	-4.23%	5.71%	1.81%	3.90%
2004	20	-4.75%	9.01%	1.92%	7.09%
1999	25	-2.71%	21.43%	4.42%	17.02%
1996	28	-3.05%	12.92%	2.56%	10.36%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 4.73, 7.25 and 8.98. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.12, 7.44 and 9.75. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.69, 11.99 and 14.30. The current P/E Ratio is 9.07 based on a stock price of $26.57 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $2.93. The current ratio is between the median and high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 2.12, 3.04 and 4.37. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 3.35, 4.72 and 5.96. The current ratio is 4.50 based on a stock price of $26.57 and FFO estimate for 2025 of $5.90. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Free Funds Flow (FFF) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Free Funds Flow Ratios are 3.47, 5.93 and 8.98. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.66, 22.17 and 25.69. The current ratio is 23.30 based on a stock price of $26.57 and FFF for the last 12 months of 1.05. The current ratio is between the median and high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $29.82. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.59, 0.84 and 1.00. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.89 based on a stock price of $26.57. The current ratio is between the median and high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.55. The current P/B Ratio is 1.97 based on a Book Value of $7,948M, Book Value per Share of $13.48 and a stock price of $26.57. The current ratio is 27% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $14.93. This implies a ratio of 1.78 and Book Value of $8,803M with a stock price of $26.57. This ratio is 15% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.75. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.52 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $5.87, Cash Flow of $3,464M and a stock price of $26.57. The current ratio is 4.9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.57%. The current dividend yield is 2.86% based on a stock price of $26.57 and dividends of $0.76. The current dividend yield is 62% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem with this test is that is works for when dividends are increasing not decreasing.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.46%. The current dividend yield is 2.86% based on a stock price of $26.57 and dividends of $0.76. The current dividend yield is 17% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. As I said above, this test works best with increased dividends and not decreasing dividends.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.91. The current P/S Ratio is 2.73 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $5,744M, Revenue per Share of $9.74 and a stock price of $26.57. The current ratio is 6.28% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be reasonable judging by the P/S Ratio test. The dividend yield tests are not good because dividends have mostly been decreasing and this testing works best for increasing dividends. The P/S Ratio test says the stock is relatively reasonable. However, a lot of the testing is saying that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. This is probably the correct answer.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (11), Buy (6). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $33.18 with a high of $37.00 and low of $29.00. The consensus stock price of $33.18 implies a total return of 27.74% with 24.88% from capital gains and 2.86% from dividends.

There are a number of entries on Stock Chase for 2025 and they are all buys. Analysts think it is a well-managed company. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says ARC’s record production levels indicate a solid foundation for future operations. Sneha Nahata on Motley Fool thinks this is a stock to buy and hold. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their fourth quarter results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and they say they are a little wary of this company going forward. They have one warning of unstable dividend track record. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.

ARC Resources Ltd is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of conventional oil and natural gas in Western Canada. The company produces light, medium, and heavy crude, condensate, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Its web site is here ARC Resources Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be IGM Financial Inc (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) ... learn more on Monday, February 17, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. I would give this stock a pass on Debt Ratios but they do have a lot of debt. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are probably too high. The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The problem with this REIT is that they have invested in office real estate. It would seem that currently companies are making efforts to get their staff back into the office. It is hard to say how successful this will be. I remember in the 1990’s people talked about a future time when people would all work from home. I do not think it quite worked out as imagined. This REIT is certainly cheap and the dividend is very high at 10.6%.

I do not own this stock of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF). Since several stocks that I followed in 2015 were deleted from the stock exchange, I was looking for other stocks to follow. I am sure that I got this from a Canadian Dividend site called Think Dividends, but I cannot find it at present.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they have earning losses because of Fair Value Loss on Investment Properties and Investments Properties held for Sale. This stock seems to have hit a high in February 2020 ($60.00) and has gone downhill ever since.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,010.88 you would have bought 27 shares at $37.44 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $450.58 in dividends. The stock would be worth $463.05. Your total return would have been $913.63. This would be a total loss of 1.26% per year with 7.51% from capital loss and 6.25% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$37.44	$1,010.88	27	10	$450.58	$463.05	$913.63

The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is High (7% or higher) at 10.60%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.74% and 4.10%. The historical median dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.20%. The dividend yields only got really high in 2023. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 2.4% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 2.9%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are probably too high. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is not calculable because of earnings losses with 5 year coverage too high at 190%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is fine at 92% with 5 year coverage at 87%. The DPR for 2024 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is fine at 83% with 5 year coverage at 77%. The DPR for AFFO and FFO test to be high. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is too high at 106% with 5 year coverage at 62%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 139% with 5 year coverage at 81%. There is not agreement on what the FCF is.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	-86.91%	190.01%
AFFO	92.02%	86.76%
FFO	82.95%	77.13%
CFPS	105.59%	62.13%
FCF	139.18%	80.63%

I would give this stock a pass on Debt Ratios but they do have a lot of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is fine at 1.56 and currently at 1.57 for a REIT. That is because we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2024 which is good at 0.35 and currently at 0.35 because this is a more important one for a REIT. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is too low at 0.45 and 0.45 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still too low at 0.37 and currently at 0.40. If you add back in the current debt, the Liquidity Ratio fine at 1.01 and currently at 1.08, but it is low as they have a lot of debt. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.10 and 2.10 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.91 and 0.91 and currently at 1.91 and 0.91.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R A	0.35	0.35
Lg Term R	1.56	1.57
Intang/GW	0.00	0.00
Liquidity	0.45	0.45
Liq. + CF	0.37	0.40
Liq. + CF +Dd	1.01	1.08
Debt Ratio	2.10	2.10
Leverage	1.91	1.91
D/E Ratio	0.91	0.91

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	2.43%	-14.31%	-19.92%	5.61%
2014	10	2.47%	-1.26%	-7.51%	6.25%
2009	15	2.09%	13.08%	7.37%	8.17%
2004	20	2.78%	11.17%	10.39%	9.30%
2003	21	3.79%	11.17%	10.88%	9.49%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.94, 11.43, 13.24. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.85, 9.03 and 10.13. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.95, 11.23 and 12.92. The current P/E Ratio is 9.70 based on a stock price of $16.98 and EPS estimate for 20256 of $1.75. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios are 11.52, 16.94 and 22.04. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.87, 19.75 and 22.64. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 9.82 based on a stock price of $16.98 and AFFO estimate for 2025 of $1.73. The current ratio is below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Funds from Operations Ratios are 10.28, 15.12 and 19.16. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.08, 16.81 and 19.50. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 8.12 based on a stock price of $16.98 and AFFO estimate for 2025 of $2.09. The current ratio is below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $41.37. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.53, 0.64 and 0.71. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.41 based on a stock price of $16.98. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.96. The current P/B Ratio is 0.39 based on a stock price of $16.98, Book Value of $4,563M and Book Value per Share of $43.47. The current P/B Ratio is 59% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 16.10. The current ratio is 14.70 based on a stock price of $16.98, Cash Flow per Share for last 12 month of $1.16 and Cash Flow of $148M. The current ratio is 8.7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.20%. The current dividend yield is 10.60% based on dividends of $1.80 and a stock price of $16.98. The current dividend yield is 104% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.10%. The current dividend yield is 10.60% based on dividends of $1.80 and a stock price of $16.98. The current dividend yield is 159% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 8.72. The current P/S Ratio is 3.48 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $624, Revenue per Share of $4.87 and a stock price of $16.98. The current ratio is 60% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield testing is saying that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. A number of the other tests are saying that the stock price is relatively cheap with one saying it is reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (1), and Hold (6). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus would be $19.03 with a high of $22.50 and a low of $17.50. The consensus stock price of $19.03. This implies a total return of 22.67% with 12.07% from capital gains and 10.60% from dividends.

For the current year there are three analysts on Stock Chase talking about this stock with recommendations of Wait, Do Not Buy and Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. One analyst likes the high yield and another thinks fundamentals are difficult and yet another thinks that it stock price would go lower for a better price to buy. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says buy for the high yield and the company’s stellar dividend history. Brian Paradza on Motley Fool likes the high yield and a bet on the return to the office. The company put out a press release via Global Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2024 results.

Simply Wall Street looks at this stock viaYahoo Finance and thinks it is undervalued. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5. They give out 2 warnings of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; and dividend of 10.47% is not well covered by free cash flows.

Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust engaged in the development, management, and ownership of primarily urban office environments across Canada's major cities. Most of the total square footage in the company's real estate portfolio is located in Toronto and Montreal. Its web site is here Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... learn more on Friday, February 14, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Quick Market Update.... learn more on Thursday, February 13, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side, but it could be reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth stopped. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do not buy companies with dividend yields less than 1% as it takes too long for them to pay a good dividend yield on your original stock price. Not only is the dividend yield below 1%, the company has not increased the dividend since 2021. At this point I am personally glad that I went with CNR rather than this this stock. However, the total return on this stock has been good over the years. My stock testing is putting this stock price as expensive, however, the P/S Ratio test does say it is reasonable, but above the median.

I do not own this stock of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP). It is a stock I held from 1987 to 1999 so I am following it. I also held it 2006 to 2011. I decided in 2011 to have only one railway stock and chose CNR as my railway stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they have not increased their dividends since 2021 and the dividend yield is very low at just 0.66%.

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth stopped. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 0.66%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also low at 0.81%, 0.89% and 1.21%. The dividend growth has stopped in 2021. However, analysts expect the dividends to increase this year.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,029.25 you would have bought 23 shares at $44.75 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $134.55 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,393.84. Your total return would have been $2,528.39. This would be a total return of 9.66% per year with 8.81% from capital gain and 0.85% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$44.75	$1,029.25	23	10	$134.55	$2,393.84	$2,528.39

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 19% with 5 year coverage at 19%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 18% with 5 year coverage at 20%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 13% with 5 year coverage at 17%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF 1) is good at 29% with 5 year coverage at 29%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF 2, given by the company) is good at 26% with 5 year coverage at 29%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	19.10%	18.89%
AEPS	17.88%	19.50%
CFPS	13.49%	16.76%
FCF 1	29.01%	29.01%
FCF 2	26.38%	29.43%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.20 and currently at 0.18. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is too low at 0.60 and 0.60 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still low at 1.40 and currently fine at 1.62. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.26 and 2.26 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.83 and 0.81 and currently at 1.83 and 0.81.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.20	0.18
Intang/GW	0.23	0.21
Liquidity	0.60	0.60
Liq. + CF	1.40	1.62
Debt Ratio	2.26	2.26
Leverage	1.83	1.83
D/E Ratio	0.81	0.81

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 36 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	5.12%	10.41%	9.47%	0.95%
2014	10	10.50%	9.66%	8.81%	0.85%
2009	15	9.38%	17.28%	15.91%	1.37%
2004	20	10.46%	14.83%	13.58%	1.26%
1999	25	11.00%	16.23%	14.67%	1.57%
1994	30	11.14%	15.40%	13.92%	1.48%
1989	35	6.50%	12.32%	11.22%	1.11%
1984	36	6.93%	12.83%	11.54%	1.28%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 22.53, 24.53 and 26.52. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.00, 20.82 and 24.17. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.06, 16.55 and 17.37. The current P/E Ratio is 22.91 based on a stock price of $110.58 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $4.94. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.21, 24.95 and 26.76. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.47, 22.16 and 25.68. The current P/AEPS estimate for 2025 is 22.38 based on AEPS for 2025 of $4.94 and a stock price of $110.58. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $75.51. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.62, 1.85 and 2.07. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.46 based on a stock price of $110.58. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 5.05. The current P/B Ratio is 2.16 based on a Book Value of $47,892M, Book Value per Share of $51.30 and a stock price of $110.58. The current ratio is 57% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $53.60. This estimate implies a ratio of 2.06 and a Book Value of $50,036M with a stock price of $110.58. This ratio is 59% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 15.42. The current P/CF Ratio is 15.96 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $6.93, Cash Flow of $6,468M and a stock price of $110.58. The current ratio is 3.5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.21%. The current dividend yield is 0.69% based on a dividend of $0.76 and stock price of $110.58. The current dividend yield is 43% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.89%. The current dividend yield is 0.69% based on a dividend of $0.76 and stock price of $110.58. The current dividend yield is 23% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.25. The current P/S Ratio is 6.55 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $15,749M, Revenue per Share of $16.87 and a stock price of $110.58. The current ratio is 4.9% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side, but it could be reasonable. The dividend yield tests say that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, this test is not a particularly good one when dividends are flat. On the other hand, when a company stops raising their dividends, that is not a good sign. The P/S Ratio test says it is reasonable, but above the median. The rest of the testing go from cheap to reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (16), Buy (7), Hold (8) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $123.50 with a high of $138.00 and low of $70.00. The consensus 12 month stock price of $12.50 implies a total return of 12.37% with 11.68% from capital gains and 0.69% from dividends.

All the analysts’ recommendations on Stock Chase in 2025 are a buy. Stock Chase gives this company 5 stars out of 5. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool reviews both CNR and CP and says the choice between the two depend on your investment goals. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool thinks this is a blue chip stock for long term investors. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2024.

There is an article Zacks via Yahoo Finance.

Canadian Pacific Kansas City is a Class-1 railroad operating on track that spans across most of Canada and into parts of the Midwestern and Northeastern United States and down through Texas, the Gulf of Mexico, and into Mexico. Its web site is here Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. There is also an article about this company at Insider Money via Yahoo Finance. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5. They list one warning of has a high level of debt.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 12, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Melanie Phillips.... learn more on Tuesday, February 11, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian National Railway

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median, but maybe cheap. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Canadian National Railway.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I believe if you like a stock and would like to hold for a long period of time, the time to buy is when it is reasonable or cheap. In a portfolio, it is probably a good idea to have either this stock or Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd, but not both. I went with CNR personally. I think this is a stock to hold for the long term. Currently the price is reasonable. However, it might be cheap as the dividend yield tests are showing.

I own this stock of Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI). In 2005 I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met by criteria. This is a dividend growth company with a good record of dividend increases. I brought some more in 2009.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done well with this investment. I have had this stock since 2005 and made a second investment in 2009. I have a total return of $14.26% per year with 11.56% from capital gains and 2.70% from dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,040.26 you would have bought 13 shares at $80.02 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $293.80 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,897.61. Your total return would have been $2,191.41. This would be a total return of 8.25% per year with 6.20% from capital gain and 2.06% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$80.02	$1,040.26	13	10	$293.80	$1,897.61	$2,191.41

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.45%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.89%, 1.87% and 1.67%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% per year) at 9.5% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 5.03%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 48% with 5 year coverage at 40%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 48% with 5 year coverage at 43%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 29%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 69% with 5 year coverage at 52%. There is no agreement on what the FCF is, but they are relatively close.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	48.22%	40.81%
AEPS	47.61%	43.16%
CFPS	33.38%	29.39%
FCF	69.15%	52.62%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.22 and currently at 0.21. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is too low at 0.66 and 0.66 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.81 and currently at 1.81. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.58 and 1.58 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are fine at 2.71 and 1.71 and currently at 2.71 and 1.71.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.22	0.21
Intang/GW	0.01	0.00
Liquidity	0.66	0.66
Liq. + CF	1.81	1.81
Debt Ratio	1.58	1.58
Leverage	2.71	2.71
D/E Ratio	1.71	1.71

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	9.47%	6.64%	4.44%	2.20%
2014	10	12.95%	8.25%	6.20%	2.06%
2009	15	13.51%	13.92%	11.46%	2.46%
2004	20	15.33%	13.05%	10.88%	2.17%
1999	25	15.12%	15.73%	13.25%	2.47%
1996	28	15.05%	15.61%	13.24%	2.37%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.67, 21.28 and 24.31. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.92, 18.85 and 21.00. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.32, 14.67 and 17.34. The current P/E Ratio is 18.15 based on a stock price of $145.02 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $7.99. The current ratio us between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.80, 22.85 and 25.30. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.02, 20.34 and 22.54. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 18.06 based on a stock price of $145.02 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $8.03. The current ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $77.83. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.75, 2.04 and 2.28. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.86 based on a stock price of $145.02. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.43. The current ratio is 4.33 based on a stock price of $145.02, Book Value of $21,051M and Book Value per Share of $33.53. The current ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $32.72. This implies a ratio of 4.43 with a stock price of $145.02 and Book Value of $20,534M. This is the same ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.81. The current P/CF Ratio is 12.069 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $11.43, Cash Flow of $7,177M and a stock price of $145.02. The current ratio is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.67%. The current dividend yield is 2.45% based on dividends of $3.31 and a stock price of $145.02. The current dividend yield is 47% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.83%. The current dividend yield is 2.45% based on dividends of $3.31 and a stock price of $145.02. The current dividend yield is 31% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.81. The current P/S Ratio is 5.06 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $17,979M, Revenue per Share of $28.63 and a stock price of $145.02. The current ratio is 13% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median, but maybe cheap. The dividend yield testing is saying that the stock price is relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio testing is saying it is reasonable, but below the median. All the rest of the testing is saying that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (9), Buy (8), Hold (14), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $167.90 with a high of $200.00 and low of $123.00. The consensus stock price of $167.90 implies a total return of 18.23% with 15.78% from capital gains and 2.45% from dividends.

The year starts off for Analysts on Stock Chase as a Buy and turns into Do Not Buy. Some analysts like CP better and some are worried about the US Tariffs. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Sneha Nahata on Motley Fool thinks this is the smartest dividend stock to buy for future dividend payouts. Tony Dong on Motley Fool like CNR better than CP as it does more business across Canada than into the US. The company put out a press release via Global Newswire about their results for the fourth quarter of 2024.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. They have one warning of has a high level of debt. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.

Canadian National's railway spans Canada from coast to coast and extends through Chicago to the Gulf of Mexico. Its web site is here Canadian National Railway.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP) ... learn more on Monday, February 10, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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