Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock seems to be doing well at this point. However, I would have no interest in purchasing this stock again. The current ratios seem quite low. For example, the 10 year high P/E Ratio is 8.66. Generally, P/E Ratios below 10 is considered cheap and expensive above 20. But currently my testing is implying that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I do not own this stock of AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF) but I used to. I bought this stock several times starting in 2001. If I had kept it over that 24 year period to the end of 2025, I would have lost 1.96% per year or have a total loss of my purchase of 38%. I got out of this stock in 2008 and had a total return of 2.08% per year because of dividends.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the people who bought and held this stock for the last 15, 20 or 25 years did not make a very good return. The Total Return for the last 15, 20 and 25 years is 2.06%, 1.89% and 1.27%. You can see from the Total Return paragraph below that people who held this stock between 15 and 25 years, earned very little and what they did earn was in dividends. For other periods, you got a good return.
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,003.60 you would have bought 193 shares at $5.20 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $715.07 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,142.04. Your total return would have been $3,857.11. This would be a total return of 16.47% per year with 12.09% from capital gain and 4.38% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5.20 | $1,003.60 | 193 | 10 | $715.07 | $3,142.04 | $3,857.11 |
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth currently moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.75%. The 5 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate at 4.92% an4.71%. The 10 year median dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.14%. The dividend growth the for last 5 years is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 8.9% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 8.7%. Dividend increases have been inconsistent and dividends are down for the people who bought this stock between 10 and 20 years ago. See Total Return paragraph below.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 26% with 5 year coverage at 34%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 25% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 29% with 5 year coverage high at 38%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow MS (FCF) is good at 29% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow Company (FCF) is good at 27% with 5 year coverage at 31%. There are several sources for FCF and they are all similar.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 25.65% | 34.06% |
| AEPS | 25.39% | 32.19% |
| CFPS | 20.78% | 25.09% |
| FCF MS | 29.16% | 38.45% |
| FCF Comp | 26.54% | 31.36% |
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.07 and currently at 0.06. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is low at 1.00 and 1.00 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.64 and currently at 1.63. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 3.42 and 3.42 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are good at 1.44 and 0.41 and currently at 1.41 and 0.41.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Intang/GW | 1.15 | 0.90 |
| Liquidity | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.64 | 1.63 |
| Debt Ratio | 3.42 | 3.42 |
| Leverage | 1.44 | 1.41 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.41 | 0.41 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 8.90% | 26.50% | 21.77% | 4.73% |
| 2015 | 10 | -0.40% | 16.47% | 12.09% | 4.38% |
| 2010 | 15 | -4.83% | 2.06% | -1.20% | 3.26% |
| 2005 | 20 | -0.67% | 1.89% | -1.56% | 3.45% |
| 2000 | 25 | 4.09% | 1.27% | -1.62% | 2.89% |
| 1995 | 30 | 4.66% | 12.72% | 5.56% | 7.16% |
| 1990 | 34 | 6.18% | 16.31% | 7.66% | 8.65% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.04, 7.41, and 6.39. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.61, 7.24 and 8.86. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.04, 12.79 and 15.65. The current ratio is 9.23 based on a stock price of $18.15 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $1.97. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The P/E Ratios are quite low where generally a ratio of 10 or lower is consider low.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 4.89, 6.14, 7.60. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.92, 8.09 and 9.34. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.65, 11.32 and 14.21. The current ratio is 8.64 based on a stock price of $18.15 and AEPS estimate for 2026 of $2.10. This ratio is between the median and the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. The P/AEPS Ratios are quite low where generally a ratio of 10 or lower is consider low.
I get a Graham Price of $30.13. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.32, 0.39 and 0.49. The current ratio is 0.60 based on a stock price of $18.15. The current ratio is above the high ratio for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. These ratios are quite low. Generally good ratios are between 0.85 and 1.20.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.47. The current ratio is 0.94 based on a Book Value of $1,235M, Book Value per Share of $19.22 and a stock price of $18.15. The current ratio is 100% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The P/E Ratios are quite low where generally a ratio of 1.50 is considered a good normal ratio.
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $20.19. This implies a ratio of 0.90 based on a stock price of $18.15 and Book Value of $1,298M. This ratio is 91% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.82. The current P/CF Ratio is 10.16 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $114.9M, Cash per Share of $1.79 and a stock price of $18.15. The current ratio is 49% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.71%. The current dividend yield is 2.75% based on a stock price of $18.15 and Dividends of $0.50. The current ratio is 42% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.14%. The current dividend yield is 2.75% based on a stock price of $18.15 and Dividends of $0.50. The current ratio is 42% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.07. The current ratio is 1.85 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $631.7M, Revenue per Share of $9.83 and a stock price of $18.15. The current ratio is 72% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side. The dividend yield tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the other tests, but the P/B Ratio test says that the stock is expensive. The P/B Ratio test says it is reasonable but above the median. The ratios on this stock is generally quite low.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (2) and Hold (3). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $19.54 with a high of $22.00 and a low of $16.50. The consensus stock price of $19.54 implies a total return of 10.41% with 7.66% from capital gains and 2.75% from dividends based on a current stock price of $18.15.
In 2025 the only recommendation on Stock Chase is Do Not Buy. Says company is a shadow of itself. In 2024 the only recommendation was Sell. Says dividend rising too fast and earnings not quality. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool says the company is showing strong growth momentum. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool in 2025 said that this was a dividend stock to consider. The company put out a Press Release about their 2025annual results.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and says that the fair value has edged up from $16.29 to $16.54. Simply Wall Street has one warning on this stock of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 8.5% per year for the next 3 years.
AGF Management is a Canadian-based independent asset manager. AGF Management's funds are weighted toward equities with roughly three-quarters of the firm's retail AUM tied to equities. Its web site is here AGF Management Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was EQB Inc (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) ... learn more on Monday, February 9 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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