Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Some people think that Senior Living places will do well because of our demographics, but I am not so sure about that. The company has a lot of debt. It is certainly seem expensive at this point in time.
I do not own this stock of Sienna Senior Living Inc (TSX-SIA, OTC-LWSCF). When I looked in Stock Chase about Chartwell, Greg Newman; Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Management said he liked Sienna Senior Living Better, so I investigated it.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that it has been growing its revenue by 5.9% and 6.9% over the past 5 and 10 years. However, Revenue per Share for the past 5 and 10 year is 1.5% and a negative 1.5%. This company also has a lot of debt.
If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,007.28 you would have bought 72 shares at $19.88 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $663.12 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,124.64. Your total return would have been $1,787.76. This would be a total return of 7.39% per year with 1.11% from capital gain and 6.28% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.99 | $1,007.28 | 72 | 10 | $663.12 | $1,124.64 | $1,787.76 |
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth flat. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.52%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are good (5% and 6% ranges) at 6.54%, 5.96% and 6.54%. The dividend growth for the past 5 years is 0.26%. The dividends have been flat since 2020.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are probably fine. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is far too high at 187% with 5 year coverage at 679%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is good at 69% with 5 year coverage fine at 87%. The DPR for 2024 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is good at 67% with 5 year coverage fine at 87%. The DPR for 2024 for Operating Funds from Operations (OFFO) is good at 62% with 5 year coverage fine at 83%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is high at 48% with 5 year coverage good at 37%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is negative at 197% with 5 year coverage high at 86%. FCF varies in 2024 from a negative $35M to a positive $12M. I am using the $12M value in my calculations.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 187.20% | 679.25% |
| AFFO | 69.18% | 87.15% |
| FFO | 67.19% | 86.89% |
| OFFO | 61.50% | 82.86% |
| CFPS | 48.44% | 37.36% |
| FCF | -197.54% | 86.26% |
Debt Ratios show there is a problem with Liquidity and the company has a lot of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is fine at 0.73. and currently at 0.66. However, we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2024 which is good at 0.83 and currently at 0.70 because this is a more important ratio when we are dealing with real estate. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is far too low at 0.42 and 0.34 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still far too low at 0.69 and currently at 0.41. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is fine but low at 1.35 and 1.36 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are too high at 3.87 and 2.84 and currently at 3.76 and 2.76.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| Lg Term R A | 0.83 | 0.70 |
| Intang/GW | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| Liquidity | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| Liq. + CF | 0.69 | 0.41 |
| Liq. + CF +D | 0.84 | 0.60 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.35 | 1.36 |
| Leverage | 3.87 | 3.76 |
| D/E Ratio | 2.87 | 2.76 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 15 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | 0.26% | 6.55% | 0.47% | 6.08% |
| 2014 | 10 | 0.39% | 7.39% | 1.11% | 6.28% |
| 2009 | 15 | 1.60% | 11.01% | 3.32% | 7.69% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 41.84, 48.02 and 54.19. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 61.81, 69.97 and 78.13. The corresponding historical ratios are 37.98, 39.87 and 41.76. The current ratio is 43.17 based on a stock price of $20.72 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $0.48. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, these ratios are very high.
I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios are 9.72, 13.72 and 15.48. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.49, 11.93 and 13.10. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.72, 11.11 and 12.66. The current ratio is 17.41 based on a stock price of $20.72 and AFFO estimate for 2025 of $1.19. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Funds from Operations Ratios are 9.60, 10.84, 12.56. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.56, 13.39 and 14.67. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.64, 13.28 and 14.50. The current ratio is 15.82 based on a stock price of $20.72 and FFO estimate for 2025 of $1.31. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I also have Operating Funds from Operations (OFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Operating Funds from Operations Ratios are 8.90, 12.97 and 14.63. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.13, 13.01 and 14.23. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.06, 12.45 and 13.54. The current ratio is 15.82 based on a stock price of $20.72 and OFFO estimate for 2025 of $1.31. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $9.03. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.35, 2.77 and 3.14. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.29 based on a stock price of $20.72. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.34. The current ratio is 2.74 based on a stock price of $20.72, Book Value of $624.6M and Book Value per Share of $7.56. The current ratio is 17% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 12.82. The current P/CF ratio is 26.14 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $65.5M, Cash Flow per Share of $0.79 and a stock price of $20.72. The current ratio is 104% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.54%. The current dividend yield is 4.52% based on dividends of $0.936 and a stock price of $20.72. The current dividend yield is 31% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.96%. The current dividend yield is 4.52% based on dividends of $0.936 and a stock price of $20.72. The current dividend yield is 24% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.47. The current P/S Ratio is 1.69 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $1,014M, Revenue per Share of $12.27 and a stock price of $20.72. The current ratio is 15% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. The dividend yield tests say this. It is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test, but that test says the stock price is reasonable but above the median. Almost all the testing is saying that the stock price is expensive or if reasonable, above the median.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (4), and Hold (1). The consensus is a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $22.56 with a high of $23.00 and low of $22.00. The consensus stock price of $22.56 implies a total return of 13.40% with 8.88% from capital gains and 1.52% from dividends based on a current stock price of $20.72.
Some analysts like this stock on Stock Chase because of aging demographics tailwind. One analyst does not like this sector at all. Chris MacDonald on Motley Fool calls this stock a REIT and says it is in the defensive area of real estate. Rajiv Nanjapla on Motley Fool likes this stock because of the monthly cash flow. The company put out a Press Release about their annual results for 2024. The company put out a press release via Yahoo Finance about their third quarter of 2025.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. They say that it is hard to get excited about this company at the moment because of the debt. Simply Wall Street has two warnings on this stock of Dividend of 4.52% is not well covered by earnings or free cash flows; and interest payments are not well covered by earnings.
Sienna Senior Living Inc is an owner of seniors' housing, a licensed long-term care operator in Ontario, and a provider of services across the full continuum of care. The firm operates solely within Canada. Its web site is Sienna Senior Living Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Chartwell Retirement Residences (TSX-CSH.UN, OTC-CWSRF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bird Construction Inc (TSX-BDT, OTC-BIRDF) ... learn more on Wednesday, December 10, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Make the Most of Your Compensation.... learn more on Tuesday, December 9, 2025 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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