Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do like this company and I have done well with it. However, you do have to be careful about paying too much for a company. With this stock I would be in the Hold category. The last dividend increase was much lower than for the last 7 years. However, there is also the possibility that the stock does not go any lower in the future. My inclination for this stock is a Hold, but I could be wrong.
I own this stock of TFI International Inc (TSX-TFII, OTC-TFIFF). I read a report called "6 Canadian Dividend Stocks That Fly Under the Radar" by John Heinzl in April of 2013. This is one of the stocks mentioned. There was also a good review of this stock by Advice Hotline by MPL Communications.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have made a total return of 25.07% per year with 22.66% from capital gains and 2.41% from dividends. I have had this stock for 8.8 years and I am making a dividend yield in 9.7% on my original investment. This is why I like lower dividends, but good dividend increases.
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,015.23 you would have bought 43 shares at $23.61 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $581.73 in dividends. The stock would be worth $6,100.41. Your total return would have been $6,682.14. This would be a total return of 21.99% per year with 19.64% from capital gain and 2.35% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23.61 | $1,015.23 | 43 | 10 | $581.73 | $6,100.41 | $6,682.14 |
The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth good. The dividends are paid in US$ (since 2021). The current dividend is low (below 2%) at 1.85%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also low 1.17% and 1.88%. This historical median dividend is moderate (2% to 4%) at 2.51%. The last increase was in 2026 and it was for 4.4%. Last year increase was for 12.5%. The last time the increase was below 10% was in 2018 when increase was 4.4%. Over the last 23 dividends have gone up 19 times and down 4 times.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine, but higher this year. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is high for this company at 48% with 5 year coverage good at 22%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is high for this company at 41% with 5 year coverage good at 25%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 13% with 5 year coverage at 9%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 27% with 5 year coverage at 15%. FCF varies from $ $550 .00 to $1,140.73 and I am using $550.00 consistent with other years.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 48.39% | 22.31% |
| AEPS | 41.19% | 24.54% |
| CFPS | 13.35% | 9.45% |
| FCF | 27.47% | 14.87% |
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.28 and currently at 0.28. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is low at 1.03 and 1.03 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.74 and currently at 1.69. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 1.55 and 1.55 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are fine at 2.80 and 1.80 and currently at 2.80 and 1.80.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Intang/GW | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Liquidity | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.74 | 1.69 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| Leverage | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.80 | 1.80 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2025 CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 18.86% | 18.70% | 16.71% | 2.00% |
| 2015 | 10 | 13.75% | 21.99% | 19.64% | 2.35% |
| 2010 | 15 | 12.90% | 20.02% | 17.54% | 2.48% |
| 2005 | 20 | 3.34% | 13.86% | 11.17% | 2.68% |
| 2000 | 25 | 3.41% | 48.98% | 19.36% | 29.63% |
| 1995 | 30 | 30.31% | 18.56% | 11.74% | |
| 1990 | 35 | 18.37% | 14.25% | 4.12% |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2025 US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 17.12% | 16.85% | 14.91% | 1.94% |
| 2015 | 10 | 13.87% | 22.03% | 19.61% | 2.43% |
| 2010 | 15 | 10.51% | 17.29% | 15.01% | 2.29% |
| 2005 | 20 | 2.51% | 13.12% | 10.24% | 2.88% |
| 2002 | 23 | 4.05% | 23.66% | 14.01% | 9.66% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.63, 21.00, and 24.37. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.07, 12.12 and 17.31. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.87, 12.09 and 14.94. The current ratio is 25.73 based EPS estimate for 2026 of $5.55 ($4.05 US$) and a Stock Price of $142.81. This ratio is above the high ratio for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.11, 19.18 and 22.98. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.61, 13.97 and 17.29. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.23, 12.24 and 16.20. The current ratio is 22.42 based AEPS estimate for 2026 of $4.64 and a Stock Price of $104.04. This ratio is above the high ratio for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.
I get a Graham Price of $80. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.97, 1.20 and 1.47. The current ratio is 1.78 based on a stock price of $142.81. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.64. The current ratio is 3.19 based on a Book Value of $3,673M, Book Value per Share of $44.71 and a stock price of $142.81. The current ratio is 21% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.
I also have Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $45.18 ($32.94 US$). This implies a ratio of 3.16 and Book Value of $3,712M. This ratio is 19.8% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in CDN$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.21. The current ratio is 9.31 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $11.17, Cash Flow of $917.6M and a stock price of $104.04. The current ratio is 14% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.47%. The current dividend yield is 1.81% based on $2.58 ($1.88 US$) dividends and a stock price of $142.81. The current ratio is 27% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.88%. The current dividend yield is 1.81% based on $2.58 ($1.88 US$) dividends and a stock price of $142.81. The current ratio is 4% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in CDN$.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.89. The current P/S Ratio is 1.08 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $7,928M, Revenue per Share of $96.51 and a stock price of $104.04. The current ratio is 21% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be expensive, but certainly above the median. The 10 year dividend yield test says it is above the median but only by 4%. However, the P/S Ratio test says the stock price is relatively expensive. All the rest of the testing is saying either the price is reasonable but above the median or expensive. The chart is showing the stock off the highs of 2024 and just off the recent highs of 2026.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (7), Buy (5) and Hold (7). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $163.14 ($118.94 US$) with a high of $196.14 ($143.00 US$) and low of $116.23 ($84.74 US$). The consensus stock price implies a total return of 15.66% with 13.85% from capital gains and 1.81% from dividends based on a stock price of $142.81.
There are two analysts’ remarks for 2026 on Stock Chase and they are both Buys. There were more mixed reviews in 2025 from Do Not Buy to Top Buy and lots in between. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says to pick Canadian stocks with real assets, steady demand, and managers who treat costs like it is their own money. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool says TFI is a magnificent Canadian Dividend Stock to Buy and hold for decades. The company put out a press release via Global Newswire about its fourth quarter of 2025 results.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and gives both a bull and bear perspectives. Simply Wall Street gives two risks on this stock of unstable dividend track record; and has a high level of debt. I disagree with the unstable dividend track record. This company changed dividend currency recently from CDN$ to US$ which could seem to people getting the dividends that the dividends are unstable.
TFI International Inc is involved in the provision of transportation and logistics services across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company's reportable segments are; Less-Than-Truckload, which derives maximum revenue, Truckload, and Logistics. Geographically, the company generates maximum revenue from the United States. Its web site is here TFI International Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC) ... learn more on Wednesday, March 25, 2026 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about TFI International Inc on In the Money.... learn more on Tuesday, March 24, 2026 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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