Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It is always a good sign when a company starts or restarts dividend payments. Looking at this company’s chart, it has not really down well since its last highs in 2014. However, it seems to be better over the last 5 years. Since it supplies services to the oil and gas industry it will be volatile. Positives are that they can afford their dividends and the debt ratios are very good. The stock price testing I can do is not great and the stock price is probably relatively expensive. Even if reasonable, you have to be careful because it is connected to the oil and gas industry and therefore volatile.
I do not own this stock of Trican Well Service Ltd (TSX-TCW, OTC-TOLWF). I was following Canyon Services Group Inc. and Trican Well Services Ltd. had a plan of arrangement with Canyon Shareholders (2016). My spreadsheet is showing data from Canyon Services Group Inc. (2016) to Trican Well Services Ltd.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock has grown better over the past 5 years that the past 10. In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the second quarter in 2024 and expected growth over this year.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Gwth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth | 54.20% | 9.05% | -1.11% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | EPS Growth | $3.08 | 32.45% | 5.56% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | 249.04% | 28.40% | -5.52% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | 440.89% | 40.16% | 40.14% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16.67% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | 350.00% | 35.10% | 11.70% | <-12 mths |
| 10 | Revenue Growth | 65.96% | 5.20% | 9.09% | <-this year |
| 10 | EPS Growth | $0.24 | 2.18% | 9.26% | <-this year |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | $1.23 | 8.35% | 7.14% | <-this year |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | $0.89 | 6.59% | 43.23% | <-this year |
| 10 | Dividend Growth | -$0.49 | -6.51% | 16.67% | <-this year |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | -$0.03 | -0.30% | 11.70% | <-this year |
If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,002.60 you would have bought 180 shares at $5.57 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $61.20 in dividends. The stock would be worth $923.40. Your total return would have been $984.60. This would be a total loss of 0.18% per year with 0.82% from capital loss and 0.64% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5.57 | $1,002.60 | 180 | 10 | $61.20 | $923.40 | $984.60 |
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth good over the past two years. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.84%. Since dividends just restarted in 2023, the 5 and 10 median dividend yields are 0%. The historical median dividend yield is 1.40% but lots of years had 0% in dividends. Dividends were mostly in the 4% range (around 4.10%) when paid. Dividends went up 12.5% between 2023 and 2024 and up 16.7% between 2024 and 2025. We need a few more years to dividends to see what dividends would be like. However, when they did pay dividends between 2006 and 2010, the dividends were mainly flat with a couple of big dividend increases.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage fine at 58% because the company had earnings losses to 2000. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 15% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) provided by the company is good at 13% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 43% with 5 year coverage at 18%. FCF for 2024 goes from $80M to $137M from different sources excluding the company. The company’s FCF is $137M.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 33.33% | 57.63% |
| CFPS | 15.17% | 9.77% |
| FCF Comp. | 13.06% | 37.82% |
| FCF | 43.05% | 18.28% |
Debt Ratios are currently very good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.00 and currently at 0.00. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.94 and 2.07 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 3.51 and 3.93 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.40 and 0.40 and currently at 1.34 and 0.34.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Intang/GW | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Liquidity | 1.94 | 2.07 |
| Liq. + CF | 3.35 | 3.74 |
| Debt Ratio | 3.51 | 3.93 |
| Leverage | 1.40 | 1.34 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.40 | 0.34 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2024 to TCW. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | 0.00% | 37.14% | 35.10% | 2.04% |
| 2014 | 10 | -4.98% | -0.18% | -0.82% | 0.64% |
| 2009 | 15 | 4.00% | -5.48% | -6.50% | 1.02% |
| 2004 | 20 | 7.38% | -2.98% | -4.09% | 1.11% |
| 1999 | 20 | 8.69% | 5.95% | 2.74% | |
| 1996 | 28 | 11.72% | 8.52% | 3.20% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.33, 8.46 and 9.59. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 2.42, 3.12 and 3.82. These are low due to a number of years of earnings losses. The corresponding historical ratios are 2.58, 7.43 and 9.53. The current ratio is 9.71 based on a stock price of $5.73 and EPS estimate for 2025 of 0.59. This ratio is higher than the high ratios of the 10 year ratios, but not the 5 year ratios. Therefore, I am suggesting that this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I also have Free Cash Flow (FCF) data from the company. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.23, 6.82 and 7.73. Note none of my sources for FCF agree consistently on what the FCF is each year. For the FCF from the company, I only have 5 year data. The current ratio is 7.85 based on a stock price of $5.73 and FCF per Share of $0.73. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 5 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $5.46. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.56, 0.78 and 1.06. The current ratio is 1.05 based on a stock price of $5.73. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.28. The current ratio is 2.55 based on a Book Value of $476.5M, Book Value per Share of $2.25 and a stock price of $5.73. The current ratio is 100% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem is that the book value is going down, normally you would hope it would go up.
I also have Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $3.49. This implies a Book Value of $741M and a ratio of 1.64 with a stock price of $5.73. This ratio is 29% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. I do wonder about this estimate as it is 35% above the BVPS for 2024.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.79. The current ratio is 5.73 based on a stock price of $5.73, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $1.05 and Cash Flow of $221.8M. The current ratio is 16% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The dividend yield testing is not easy as I really do not have a historical or 10 year dividend yield. The best I got is the median dividend yield when dividends were actually paid and that yield is 4.10%. The current yield is 3.84% based on a stock price of $5.73 and dividends of $0.22. The current yield is 6% below this median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.94. The current ratio is 1.14 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $1,070M, Revenue per Share of $5.04 and a stock price of $5.73. The current ratio is 21% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive, but could be reasonable. The best test I can do for dividend yield says that the stock price is reasonable, but above the median. The P/S Ratio test, which is a good test, says that the stock price is relatively expensive. A number of the tests say that the stock price is expensive, but results ranges from reasonable to expensive.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (2) and Hold (3). The current consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $6.64 with a high of $8.00 and low of $6.00. The consensus stock price of $6.64 implies a total return of 19.72% with 15.88% from capital gains and 3.84% from dividends.
There are only two entries on Stock Chase for 2025 they are both positive and feel that things are changing in Canadian oil fields. Motley Fool has no entries on this stock for 2024 or 2025. It would seem that Christopher Liew is the only one following this stock on Motley Fool. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says this stock is his top pick for 2023 and beyond. The company put out a press release via Energy Now about their fourth quarter result for 2024. The company put out a press release via Newsfile about their second quarter of 2025. .
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. It is mostly positive. Simply Wall Street has one warning of unstable dividend track record. This is because dividend was recently started.
Trican Well Service Ltd is an equipment services company. It provides products, equipment, services, and technology for use in the drilling, completion, stimulation, and reworking of oil and gas wells through its continuing pressure pumping operations in Canada. The company offers these services to customers in Canada from operating bases located across the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). Its web site is here Trican Well Service Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Telus Corp (TSX-T, NYSE-TU) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Wajax Corp (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF) ... learn more on Monday, September 22, 2025 around 5 pm.
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