Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I can see the attraction for this stock. It pays a good dividend yield. If you look at total return, the stock has done quite well for shareholders over time. You might want to buy for not only the dividends but for diversification reasons. The stock is testing as reasonable, but quite a number of my tests, that are good tests, say that the stock price is cheap. See, for example, the P/AEPS Ratio test.
I do not own this stock of Rogers Sugar Inc (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF). This stock was brought to my attention by Dividend Ninja. This company used to be an Income Trust (TSX-RSI.UN) but it has been converted to a corporation. On its change to a corporation, it lowered its dividend.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that Rogers has had a good year. EPS is up 20%, Cash Flow is up 52%, Net Income is up 20%. However Adjusted EPS is down 1%.
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,000.64 you would have bought 236 shares at $4.24 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $849.60 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1404.20. Your total return would have been $2,253.80. This would be a total return of 10.91% per year with 3.45% from capital gain and 7.47% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.24 | $1,000.64 | 236 | 10 | $849.60 | $1,404.20 | $2,253.80 |
The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.93%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are good at 6.16% and 6.24%. The historical median dividend yield is high (7% or higher) at 7.68%. The dividends have been flat since 2013. This stock used to be an income trust company before changing to a corporation. Income Trusts have very high dividend yields as they can have much higher yields than corporations. Analysts do not see any change in the dividend yield in the near future.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are high but are declining. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is high at 73% with 5 year coverage at 111%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is high at 68% with 5 year coverage at 95%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 31% with 5 year coverage at 34%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 141% with 5 year coverage at 208%. I get two FCF values of $104M and $46.1M. I am using the $46.1M because I used the FCF from WSJ before. This does not mean that I think it is correct. I do not like FCF because people cannot agree on what the value is, but I include it because it seems to be popular.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 73.47% | 111.11% |
| AEPS | 68.48% | 95.42% |
| CFPS | 31.36% | 34.00% |
| FCF | 140.75% | 207.59% |
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.20 and currently at 0.22. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is good at 1.78 and 1.78 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 1.65 and 1.65 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are fine at 2.54 and 1.55 and currently at 2.54 and 1.55.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| Intang/GW | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| Liquidity | 1.78 | 1.78 |
| Liq. + CF | 2.09 | 2.07 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.65 | 1.65 |
| Leverage | 2.54 | 2.54 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.55 | 1.55 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 0.00% | 7.46% | 1.18% | 6.28% |
| 2015 | 10 | 0.00% | 10.91% | 3.45% | 7.47% |
| 2010 | 15 | -1.62% | 7.69% | 0.72% | 6.97% |
| 2005 | 20 | -0.54% | 12.02% | 2.40% | 9.61% |
| 2000 | 25 | -3.07% | 10.34% | 1.21% | 9.12% |
| 1997 | 28 | -2.43% | 7.13% | -0.58% | 7.71% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.75, 12.11 and 13.48. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.07, 12.72 and 13.98. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.71, 11.92 and 13.12. The current ratio is 11.45 based on a stock price of $6.07 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $0.53. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.83, 15.18, 16.53. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.02, 14.60 and 16.49. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.70, 13.20 and 14.72. The current ratio is 11.67 based on a stock price of $6.07 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $0.52. The current ratio is below the low median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $6.43. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.03, 1.14 and 1.27. The current ratio is 0.94 based on a stock price of $6.07. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.87. The current ratio is 1.72 based on a stock price of $6.07, Book Value of $453.4M and Book Value per Share of $3.54. The current ratio is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.73. The current P/CF Ratio is 6.59 based on Cash Flow estimate for 2026 of $118M, Cash Flow per Share of $0.92 and a stock price of $6.07. The current ratio is 32% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.68%. The current dividend yield is 5.93% based on dividends of $0.36 and a stock price of $6.07. The current dividend yield is 23% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is not a good test for this stock because the stock is not a dividend growth stock.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.24%. The current dividend yield is 5.93% based on dividends of $0.36 and a stock price of $6.07. The current dividend yield is 5% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This is not a good test for this stock because the stock is not a dividend growth stock.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.62. The current P/S Ratio is 0.62 based on a stock price of $6.07, Revenue estimate for 2026 of $1,249M and Revenue per Share of $9.74. The current ratio is at the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but at the median.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield testing is not good test on stocks that do not raise their dividends. The P/S Ratio test is saying that the stock is at a reasonable price. However, a lot of the testing is pointing to a cheap stock price.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only Hold (4). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $6.88 with a high of $7.00 and a low of $6.50. The 12 month stock price consensus of $6.88 implies a total return of 19.28% with 13.34% from capital gains and 5.93% from dividends based on a current stock price of $6.07.
There were two analysts remarks on Stock Chase with a hold and a buy. One thought that stagflation or inflations will hurt the stock and the other thought the stock boring. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool likes this stock. He says it is simple, he likes the dividend, and says Rogers Sugar has been around for more than 135 years. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says Rogers Sugar is consistent. She says you should buy it for its dividends and steady growth. The company put out a press release via Global Newswire about the company’s fourth quarter of 2025 results.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and finds it undervalued by 48.7% and worth $10.92 a share. Simply Wall Street gives this stock two and one half stars out of 5 and gives two warnings of dividend of 6.05% is not well covered by free cash flows; and has a high level of debt.
Rogers Sugar Inc is a Canada-based sugar-producing company. Along with its subsidiaries, it offers products like Brown sugar, Yellow sugar, Icing sugar, and other related sugar products. The company operates in the following reportable segments: Sugar and Maple. Geographically, the company derives a majority of its revenue from its customers in Canada and the rest from the United States, Europe, and other regions. Its web site is here Rogers Sugar Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Calian Group Ltd (TSX-CGY, OTC-CLNFF) ... learn more on Monday, January 12, 2025 around 5 pm. T
his blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
No comments:
Post a Comment