Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I can see that drinking habits are changing among people of all ages. Mocktails are very popular as is fruity beers and also zero percent alcoholic drinks of beer and wine. This company has in a number of time frames not delivered at least 8% per year including capital gains and dividends. The company had a big run up in stock price in 2016 and has not done much since.
I do not own this stock of Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP). In 2008 I did a spreadsheet on this stock as it has recently been recommended and generally, beer companies can make good money. Labatt’s was one of the original companies that I purchased and I did very well with it before it was bought out. Molson Coors was formed in 2005 through the merger of Molson of Canada, and Coors of the United States.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that some growth is slowing down. For example, Revenue growth over the past 10 years was 10.8% per year but over the past 5 years was just 1.9%. Cash Flow growth over the past 10 years was 4.2% but over the past 5 years was 0.1% per year. Stock Price has not done will over the past 5 and 10 years and was down over the past 10 years by 2.6%, and is up just 1.24% over the past 5 years.
In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the second quarter in 2025 and expected growth over this year.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Growth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth US$ | 9.90% | 1.91% | -2.96% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | AEPS Growth | 31.28% | 5.59% | -5.37% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | 364.38% | 35.95% | -7.58% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | 0.69% | 0.14% | -13.98% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | -10.20% | -2.13% | 6.82% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | 6.35% | 1.24% | -19.80% | <-12 mths |
| 10 | Revenue Growth US$ | 180.42% | 10.86% | -3.19% | <-this year |
| 10 | AEPS Growth | -17.31% | -1.88% | -9.06% | <-this year |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | 118.37% | 8.12% | -2.35% | <-this year |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | 50.11% | 4.15% | -1.33% | <-this year |
| 10 | Dividend Growth | 18.92% | 1.75% | 6.93% | <-this year |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | -23.08% | -2.59% | -6.96% | <-this year |
If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,044.00 you would have bought 12 shares at $87.00 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $233.37 in dividends. The stock would be worth $993.84. Your total return would have been $1,227.21. This would be a total return of 1.74% per year with 0.49% from capital loss and 2.23% from dividends. This is in CDN$.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $87.00 | $1,044.00 | 12 | 10 | $233.37 | $993.84 | $1,227.21 |
If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,043.28 you would have bought 14 shares at $74.52 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $205.66 in dividends. The stock would be worth $802.48. Your total return would have been $1008.14. This would be a total loss of 0.38% per year with 2.59% from capital loss and 2.21% from dividends. This is in US$.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $74.52 | $1,043.28 | 14 | 10 | $205.66 | $802.48 | $1,008.14 |
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth re-started. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.09%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also moderate 2.74% and 2.19%. The historical median dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.88%. The dividends were cut by around 70% in 2020. Since then, there has been dividend increases. The dividend is still 4% below the 2019 dividend. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 6.8%. This is in US$ as dividends are paid in US$.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are currently good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage to high at 67%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 30% with 5 year coverage at 26%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 14% with 5 year coverage at 12%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 30% with 5 year coverage at 23%. The FCF in 2024 varied from $1,326M to $1,410M. This is in US$ as dividends are paid in US$ and statements are in US$.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 32.90% | 67.43% |
| AEPS | 29.53% | 25.55% |
| CFPS | 14.13% | 11.90% |
| FCF | 29.87% | 23.45% |
Some Debt Ratios should be improved. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is fine at 0.52 and currently at 0.69. A lot of analysts like to see this ratio at 0.50 or less. The Intangible and Goodwill Ratios are much too high at 1.56 and currently higher still at 1.97. These should definitely be much lower than 1.00. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is low at 0.94 and 0.87 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are low at 1.45 and currently at 1.30. These ratios should be 1.50 or high. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.07 and 2.06 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.99 and 0.96 and currently at 2.00 and 0.97.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| Intang/GW | 1.56 | 1.97 |
| Liquidity | 0.94 | 0.87 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.45 | 1.30 |
| Debt Ratio | 2.07 | 2.06 |
| Leverage | 1.99 | 2.00 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.96 | 0.97 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2024 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | -0.10% | 4.86% | 2.85% | 2.01% |
| 2013 | 10 | 3.96% | 1.74% | -0.49% | 2.23% |
| 2008 | 15 | 6.66% | 6.60% | 3.84% | 2.76% |
| 2003 | 20 | 6.08% | 6.89% | 3.11% | 3.78% |
| 1998 | 25 | 6.70% | 13.03% | 7.17% | 5.86% |
| 1995 | 29 | 5.56% | 10.04% | 6.11% | 3.93% |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2024 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | -2.13% | 3.43% | 1.24% | 2.19% |
| 2013 | 10 | 1.75% | -0.38% | -2.59% | 2.21% |
| 2008 | 15 | 4.42% | 4.48% | 1.68% | 2.80% |
| 2003 | 20 | 7.56% | 4.66% | 2.09% | 2.57% |
| 1998 | 25 | 7.02% | 5.72% | 3.19% | 2.52% |
| 1993 | 30 | 6.72% | 10.27% | 6.62% | 3.65% |
| 1990 | 34 | 5.91% | 8.03% | 5.19% | 2.84% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.26, 10.97 and 12.67. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.05, 12.45 and 14.35. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.76, 13.72 and 18.23. The current P/E Ratio is 8.34 based on a stock price of $45.97 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $5.52. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.20, 12.13 and 13.75. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.23, 13.05 and 15.43. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.55, 12.24 and 13.90. The current P/E Ratio is 8.51 based on a stock price of $45.97 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $7.59. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.
I get a Graham Price of $91.05. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.64, 0.74 and 0.84. The current ratio is 0.50 based on a stock price of $45.97. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.97. The current P/B Ratio is 0.68 based on a stock price of $45.97, Book Value of $13,440.7M, and Book Value per Share of $67.99. The current P/B Ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.06. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.82 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $9.53, Cash Flow of $1,885M and a stock price of $45.97. The current ratio is 32% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.88%. The current dividend yield is 4.09% based on dividends of $1.88 and a stock price of $45.97. The current dividend yield is 118% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.19%. The current dividend yield is 4.09% based on dividends of $1.88 and a stock price of $45.97. The current dividend yield is 87% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.17. The current P/S Ratio is 0.81 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $11,256M, Revenue per Share of $56.93 and a stock price of $45.97. The current ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield testing is saying this. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the rest of the testing is saying that the stock price is relatively cheap. I did the testing in US$ because that is the dominate currency for this stock.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (2), Hold (13), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $74.66 ($53.33 US$) with a high of $100.80 ($72.00 US$) and low of $58.80($42.00 US$). The consensus stock price of 74.66 implies a total return of $19.72% with 15.65% from capital gains and 4.08% from dividends based on a current stock price of $64.56 CDN$. The US$ consensus stock price of 53.33 implies a total return of 20.10% with 16.01% from capital gains and 4.09% from dividends based on a current stock price of $45.97. (Difference would be because of the exchange rate.)
There is only one entry on Stock Chase for 2025 and it is a Do Not Buy. Analyst says that the beer market is tough and has not great growth. Tony Dong in 2022 on Motley Fool says he likes Warren Buffett type companies but this company has fundamentals that look too shaky and it is not a buy. The company put out a press release via Business Wire about their fourth quarter of 2024 results. The company put out a press release via Business Wire about their second quarter of 2025.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance had a positive view of this company in February 2025. Simply Wall Street has 2 warnings out on this stock of unstable dividend track record; has a high level of debt.
Molson Coors Canada Inc is a large brewer and distributor of beer and other malt beverages. Its breweries are located across the U.S., Canada, and Europe, with the majority of the company's revenue generated in the Americas. Its web site is here Molson Coors Canada.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Pason Systems Inc (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Brookfield Corp (TSX-BN, NYSE-BN) ... learn more on Friday, October 17, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Art of Doing Less.... learn more on Thursday, October 16, 2025 around 5 pm.
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