Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price could be cheap. Certainly by estimates, analysts expect this stock to do better, but are mostly giving it a Hold. Perhaps they do not believe in buying stocks when they are cheap. See my spreadsheet on AltaGas Ltd.
I own this stock of AltaGas Ltd. (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF). When I bought this stock in 2009 it was on many dividend growth stock lists. In 2009, I saw that this stock also had good growth in Revenues, Earnings, Dividends and Stock Prices over the last 5 and 10 years. I took a small position in this stock, and planned to wait and see how things go with this stock before buying more. I bought more in 2010 and 2012.
This company used to be an income trust. They cut their dividends by almost 39% when they became a corporation. They were raising their dividends prior to this and after cutting the dividends in 2010 they began raising them again. The last dividend increase was for 3.1% in 2015 but this was the second raise for 2015. The dividends paid in 2015 were 11.8% higher than those paid in 2014. Dividends are still 8% lower than the going rate in 2010 before the dividend cut.
As far as Dividend Payout Ratios goes, there are a number of things to consider. Currently they are paying out more in dividends than EPS, but this is expected by analysts to be corrected by 2017. They DPR for EPS for 2015 was over 2000%. It is expected to be 116% then 92% in 2016 and 2017.
This company puts out Normalized EPS which is basically getting rid of unusual or one-time costs. A lot of analysts follow Normalized EPS. Even at that they are paying out more than EPS. The DPR for Normalized EPS for 2015 was 183% and for 2016 is expected to be 105%. Other analysts are looking a DPR re FFO and AFFO. The DPR for FFO for 2015 was 55% and is expected to be 53% in 2016. The DPR for AFFO was 63% for 2015 and is expected to be 53% in 2016.
It would seem that no analyst expect dividends to be cut. Rather they all expect that the dividends paid by this company will continue to rise.
How have I done? I first bought this stock in 2009 and did later purchases also. My total return is 14.93% per year with 7.83% from capital gains and 7.10% from dividends. I have received $8.29 in dividends per share and with a cost of $22.16 per share some 37.4% of my original cost has been paid by dividends.
The current dividend yield is rather high at 6.11%% based on dividends of $1.98 and a stock price of $32.38. On the stock I bought in 2009, I am earning a dividend yield of 12.4% on my original cost. On the stock I bought in 2010, I am earning a dividend yield of 10.9% on my original cost. On the stock I bought in 2012, I am earning 6.5% dividend yield on my original cost.
This stock hit a high in 2014 ($52.59 in August) and the price was dropping in until the first part of 2016 ($28.27 in January) when it started to increase again and is presently at $32.38.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 26.32, 29.31 and 33.13. These are a lot higher than the corresponding 10 year ratios of 17.86, 20.29 and 22.72. Also the historical ratios are still lower at 12.74, 15.60 and 18.61. These ratios seem high to me for a utility except for the historical values. The current P/E Ratio is 19.05 based on a stock price of $32.38 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.70. I would suggest that the current P/E Ratio points to a reasonable stock price.
I get a Graham price of $28.85. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.22, 1.38 and 1.57. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.12 based on a stock price of $32.38. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
You do not get any different results using AFFO, FFO or Normalized EPS. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 8.59 compared to a 5 year median P/AFFO Ratio of 12.63. The current P/FFO Ratio is 8.63 compared to the 5 year median P/AFFO Ratio of 10.66 or the 10 year median P/AFFO Ratio of 9.63. The current P/NEPS Ratio is 17.23 compared to the 5 year median P/AFFO Ratio of 27.01 or the 10 year median P/AFFO Ratio of 18.81. From all this it is clear analysts expect the company to better in this year relative to the past few years.
By the way, the historical dividend yield is 4.96%. The current dividend yield is 6.11% a value some 23% higher. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
This expectation of the stock doing well in 2016 does not show in analysts' recommendations, where I find recommendations of Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. Most of the recommendations are a Hold, but the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month target price is $34.72. This implies a total return of 13.34% with 7.23% from capital gains and 6.11% from dividends.
There is an article by Geoffrey Morgan in Financial Post about AltaGas shelving the Douglas Channel LNG project due to adverse economic conditions and worsening global energy prices.. Inzkeeper on Seeking Alpha really likes this stock and she explains why. David Hannula on Business Standard Tribute talks about how analysts feel about this stock. Most seem to feel negative and a lot have downgraded this stock. Jonathan Ratner in the Financial Post thinks that this company is being dragged down by negative market sentiment. He is talking about information from Aubrey Hearn, of Sentry Small/Mid Cap Income Fund,
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was TransCanada Corp. (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP)... learn more. The next stock I will write about is BCE Inc. (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE)... learn more on Friday, April 1, 2016 around 5 pm.
AltaGas operates physical assets and provides essential services to customers who produce and consume natural gas and power. Their gas business provides gathering, processing, transportation, storage and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids. Their power business generates and delivers power in Alberta and British Columbia and is developing a significant portfolio of renewable power projects. Its web site is here AltaGas Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Friday, March 25, 2016
TransCanada Corp.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price probably reasonable. One analyst I read said to wait until dividend is at least 5%. However, this stock was seldom there (only twice) over the past 10 years. That may not be very realistic. I prefer to buy when the price is reasonable, but below the median. It is there if you just look at dividend yield. The P/E Ratio just needs to be between 17.00 and 19.50 on a forward basis for the P/E Ratio to show that the stock is below the median. That would be a price around $49.45 which is very possible. See my spreadsheet on TransCanada Corp.
I own this stock of TransCanada Corp. (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP). I bought the stock in 2000 at an opportune time. The company had been cutting their dividend payments in order to re-organize and get the company into shape for long term profitability. This company's stock fell hard because of this. People who depend on dividends for their income can be an unforgiving lot, and get really upset at company when a trusted company cuts dividends.
The main reason for an earnings loss is that they took a hit with an asset impairment charge. Other expenses were also a bit higher than last year.
The dividend yield on this stock is good and the dividend growth is low. The current dividend yield is 4.52% based on dividends of $2.26 and a stock price of $49.98. The historical median dividend yield is 4.30% and the 5 year median dividend yield 3.94%. I think any dividend over 4% is good. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 5.2% and 5.3%. I think any growth under 10% is low.
If you buy this stock at a reasonable price below the median, you are likely to have 25%, 50% and 100% of your purchase price paid for in 5, 10 and 15 years. Also, at such a price you are like to have a dividend yield of 5.5%, 7% or 10% after 5, 10 or 15 years. These can vary because the stock price can be rather high or rather low for years at a time.
For the stock I bought in 2000 I have a current dividend yield of 18.8% on my original purchase price after 15 years. This is the stock that I bought when the company had problems and had to cut dividends. For the stock I bought in 2006, after 9 years I am earning 6.8% dividend yield on my original stock cost.
This stock has not done well when you look at earnings. Even using the adjusted EPS (that is without the one-time asset impairment charge), which is $2.48, that just gives a total growth in EPS over the past 10 years of 0.4%. I have been collecting AFFO values over the past 4 years and the growth in AFFO is just 2.1% per year.
Analysts do not suggest that 2016 will be a great year either. They suggest that AFFO will go down by some 5% and EPS will be higher than the above adjusted EPS by only 2.4%. They expect a somewhat better performance in 2017 with EPS up by 12.2% and AFFO up by 16.5%.
On the plus side, dividends increased in 2016 by some 8.7%. Also, analysts expect that the Dividend Payout Ratio for 2016 will be around 89% for EPS and 47% for AFFO. If you bought this stock today at $49.98, in 5, 1 and 15 years you would be earning 5.8%, 7.5% or 9.7% in dividend yield on your original stock price if dividend continue to increase at 5.2% per year.
However, the company has said that they anticipate increasing their dividends between 8 and 10% in the future. If they increase them by 8.7% per year which is the increase for 2016, then if you bought this stock today at $49.98, in 5, 1 and 15 years you would be earning 6.9%, 10.4% or 15.8% in dividend yield on your original stock price.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.18, 19.58 and 20.99. The 10 year values are lower at 16.07, 17.67 and 19.54. The current P/E Ratio is 19.68 based on a stock price of $49.98 and 2016 EPS estimate of $2.54. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $33.67. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.15, 1.24 and 1.38. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.48 based on a stock price of 49.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.
Where the price is showing up as reasonable and below the median is using the dividend yield. The current dividend yield is 4.52% based on dividends of $2.26 and a stock price of $49.98. Since the historical median dividend at 4.30% is some 5% lower, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. Most the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus would be a Buy recommendation. The 12 month stock price target is $55.73. This implies a total return of 16.03% with 4.52% from dividends and 11.50% from capital gains.
This article from Bloomberg News in the Financial Post talks about this company using J. P. Morgan to sell some of its assets to raise money for the Columbia Pipeline takeover. This article by Benjamin Sinclair of Motley Fools gives three reasons why TransCanada is buying Columbia Pipeline. Jean Anderson at the Los Angeles Mirror talks about institutional buying of this company.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here andhere.
The last stock I wrote about was TransAlta Corp. (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC)... learn more. The next stock I will write about is AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF)... learn more on Wednesday, March 30, 2016 around 5 pm. I am taking Easter Monday off as I never had a chance to take it off when I was working. Also on each Easter Monday I had to find a babysitter for my child. All working parents can relate to that.
TransCanada is a leader in energy infrastructure. Their network of pipeline taps into virtually all major gas supply basins in North America. TransCanada is one of the continent's largest providers of gas storage and related services. It is a growing independent power producer. Its web site is here TransCanada Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of TransCanada Corp. (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP). I bought the stock in 2000 at an opportune time. The company had been cutting their dividend payments in order to re-organize and get the company into shape for long term profitability. This company's stock fell hard because of this. People who depend on dividends for their income can be an unforgiving lot, and get really upset at company when a trusted company cuts dividends.
The main reason for an earnings loss is that they took a hit with an asset impairment charge. Other expenses were also a bit higher than last year.
The dividend yield on this stock is good and the dividend growth is low. The current dividend yield is 4.52% based on dividends of $2.26 and a stock price of $49.98. The historical median dividend yield is 4.30% and the 5 year median dividend yield 3.94%. I think any dividend over 4% is good. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 5.2% and 5.3%. I think any growth under 10% is low.
If you buy this stock at a reasonable price below the median, you are likely to have 25%, 50% and 100% of your purchase price paid for in 5, 10 and 15 years. Also, at such a price you are like to have a dividend yield of 5.5%, 7% or 10% after 5, 10 or 15 years. These can vary because the stock price can be rather high or rather low for years at a time.
For the stock I bought in 2000 I have a current dividend yield of 18.8% on my original purchase price after 15 years. This is the stock that I bought when the company had problems and had to cut dividends. For the stock I bought in 2006, after 9 years I am earning 6.8% dividend yield on my original stock cost.
This stock has not done well when you look at earnings. Even using the adjusted EPS (that is without the one-time asset impairment charge), which is $2.48, that just gives a total growth in EPS over the past 10 years of 0.4%. I have been collecting AFFO values over the past 4 years and the growth in AFFO is just 2.1% per year.
Analysts do not suggest that 2016 will be a great year either. They suggest that AFFO will go down by some 5% and EPS will be higher than the above adjusted EPS by only 2.4%. They expect a somewhat better performance in 2017 with EPS up by 12.2% and AFFO up by 16.5%.
On the plus side, dividends increased in 2016 by some 8.7%. Also, analysts expect that the Dividend Payout Ratio for 2016 will be around 89% for EPS and 47% for AFFO. If you bought this stock today at $49.98, in 5, 1 and 15 years you would be earning 5.8%, 7.5% or 9.7% in dividend yield on your original stock price if dividend continue to increase at 5.2% per year.
However, the company has said that they anticipate increasing their dividends between 8 and 10% in the future. If they increase them by 8.7% per year which is the increase for 2016, then if you bought this stock today at $49.98, in 5, 1 and 15 years you would be earning 6.9%, 10.4% or 15.8% in dividend yield on your original stock price.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.18, 19.58 and 20.99. The 10 year values are lower at 16.07, 17.67 and 19.54. The current P/E Ratio is 19.68 based on a stock price of $49.98 and 2016 EPS estimate of $2.54. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $33.67. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.15, 1.24 and 1.38. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.48 based on a stock price of 49.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.
Where the price is showing up as reasonable and below the median is using the dividend yield. The current dividend yield is 4.52% based on dividends of $2.26 and a stock price of $49.98. Since the historical median dividend at 4.30% is some 5% lower, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. Most the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus would be a Buy recommendation. The 12 month stock price target is $55.73. This implies a total return of 16.03% with 4.52% from dividends and 11.50% from capital gains.
This article from Bloomberg News in the Financial Post talks about this company using J. P. Morgan to sell some of its assets to raise money for the Columbia Pipeline takeover. This article by Benjamin Sinclair of Motley Fools gives three reasons why TransCanada is buying Columbia Pipeline. Jean Anderson at the Los Angeles Mirror talks about institutional buying of this company.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here andhere.
The last stock I wrote about was TransAlta Corp. (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC)... learn more. The next stock I will write about is AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF)... learn more on Wednesday, March 30, 2016 around 5 pm. I am taking Easter Monday off as I never had a chance to take it off when I was working. Also on each Easter Monday I had to find a babysitter for my child. All working parents can relate to that.
TransCanada is a leader in energy infrastructure. Their network of pipeline taps into virtually all major gas supply basins in North America. TransCanada is one of the continent's largest providers of gas storage and related services. It is a growing independent power producer. Its web site is here TransCanada Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
TransAlta Corp.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is Cheap. At the moment I am holding on to my shares because I am betting that the company will recover rather than go bankrupt. I guess we shall see. See my spreadsheet on TransAlta Corp.
I own this stock of TransAlta Corp. (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC). I bought this stock in 1987. It was a utility stock and utility stocks were considered to be good investments.
There is some good news. The company for the first time in a very long while has a Liquidity Ratio above 1.00. Even with adding in cash flow after dividends it did not often get to 1.00. The problem with a low Liquidity Ratio is that it leaves a company vulnerable in bad times. When the Liquidity Ratio is below 1.00, it means that current assets do not cover current liabilities. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 1.36. It is not up to the 1.50 I like, but it is above 1.00. This is a positive development.
It is also interesting that last year the Net Insider Selling was a negative 0.06%. That is insiders were mostly buying shares. Over the past year the NIS is at 0.43%. This is relatively a lot of selling. The median NIS on the stocks that I follow is 0.03%, with 75% at 0.11% or less. So this is a negative.
I also find it interesting that although TD Securities issued a Buy recommendation on this stock that it qualified it by giving it a risk level of High. Most utilities have a risk level of Low. I note that in July 2014 the Investment Report removed this stock from it list of investments and advised its readers to sell this stock. They thought at that time there would be a further dividend decrease. They were correct on that point.
I did do some buying and selling this stock since my initial purchase in 1987. I have earned a total return of 5.91% per year with capital loss of 5.62% per year and dividend s at 11.53% per year. My dividends have covered more than the cost of this stock. My ACB is $16.89 per share. I have earned dividends of $27.02 per share. However, when I look at my spreadsheet all I see is red. Everything is declining from Revenues to Earnings to Cash Flow.
Since there have been a few years of earnings losses, the Price/Earnings per Share Ratios for the last 5 and 10 years make no sense. However, I have historical values as I have information back to 1987. My historical low, median and high median P/E Ratios are 14.85, 16.60 and 21.19. These are not out of line with other Power type Utilities stocks. The current P/E Ratio is 15.61 based on a stock price of $5.62 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.36. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $8.31. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.15, 1.38 and 1.62. These are rather high for a utility stock. However, the current P/GP Ratio is 0.68 based on a stock price of $5.62. Normally a P/GP Ratio of less than 1.00 says that the stock price is cheap.
This stock has a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio 1.82. The current P/B Ratio is 0.66 based on a stock price of $5.62 and BVPS of $8.52. The current P/B Ratio is 64% below the 10 year P/B Ratio. Also a ratio below 1.00 says that the stock is selling below its breakup price. In any event, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I cannot do valid testing on the dividend yield, but testing with P/S and P/CF Ratios suggest that the stock price is cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $6.13. This implies a total return of 11.92% with 9.07% from capital gains and 2.85% from dividends based on a current price of $5.62.
Nelson Smith of Motley Fool in this article talks about why he is long TransAlta. He believes that investors should give the company time to work through its troubles. However, he thinks this turnaround will not come soon. It may take a while. Interestingly, this article by Dan Healing in the Calgary Sun talks about the company shutting down a wind power site in Alberta. This article on Business Standard Tribute talks about recent Hold ratings given for this stock. There is also a recent article on Wall Street Org about this company being possible underpriced.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see these reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF)...learn more. The next stock I will write about is TransCanada Corp. (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP)... learn more on Friday, March 25, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Happiness Advantage by Shawn Achor. learn more...
TransAlta Corp. is Canada's largest investor-owned, unregulated power generation and energy-marketing company. The company owns and operates power plants in North America and Australia. Its web site is here TransAlta Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of TransAlta Corp. (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC). I bought this stock in 1987. It was a utility stock and utility stocks were considered to be good investments.
There is some good news. The company for the first time in a very long while has a Liquidity Ratio above 1.00. Even with adding in cash flow after dividends it did not often get to 1.00. The problem with a low Liquidity Ratio is that it leaves a company vulnerable in bad times. When the Liquidity Ratio is below 1.00, it means that current assets do not cover current liabilities. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 1.36. It is not up to the 1.50 I like, but it is above 1.00. This is a positive development.
It is also interesting that last year the Net Insider Selling was a negative 0.06%. That is insiders were mostly buying shares. Over the past year the NIS is at 0.43%. This is relatively a lot of selling. The median NIS on the stocks that I follow is 0.03%, with 75% at 0.11% or less. So this is a negative.
I also find it interesting that although TD Securities issued a Buy recommendation on this stock that it qualified it by giving it a risk level of High. Most utilities have a risk level of Low. I note that in July 2014 the Investment Report removed this stock from it list of investments and advised its readers to sell this stock. They thought at that time there would be a further dividend decrease. They were correct on that point.
I did do some buying and selling this stock since my initial purchase in 1987. I have earned a total return of 5.91% per year with capital loss of 5.62% per year and dividend s at 11.53% per year. My dividends have covered more than the cost of this stock. My ACB is $16.89 per share. I have earned dividends of $27.02 per share. However, when I look at my spreadsheet all I see is red. Everything is declining from Revenues to Earnings to Cash Flow.
Since there have been a few years of earnings losses, the Price/Earnings per Share Ratios for the last 5 and 10 years make no sense. However, I have historical values as I have information back to 1987. My historical low, median and high median P/E Ratios are 14.85, 16.60 and 21.19. These are not out of line with other Power type Utilities stocks. The current P/E Ratio is 15.61 based on a stock price of $5.62 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.36. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $8.31. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.15, 1.38 and 1.62. These are rather high for a utility stock. However, the current P/GP Ratio is 0.68 based on a stock price of $5.62. Normally a P/GP Ratio of less than 1.00 says that the stock price is cheap.
This stock has a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio 1.82. The current P/B Ratio is 0.66 based on a stock price of $5.62 and BVPS of $8.52. The current P/B Ratio is 64% below the 10 year P/B Ratio. Also a ratio below 1.00 says that the stock is selling below its breakup price. In any event, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I cannot do valid testing on the dividend yield, but testing with P/S and P/CF Ratios suggest that the stock price is cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $6.13. This implies a total return of 11.92% with 9.07% from capital gains and 2.85% from dividends based on a current price of $5.62.
Nelson Smith of Motley Fool in this article talks about why he is long TransAlta. He believes that investors should give the company time to work through its troubles. However, he thinks this turnaround will not come soon. It may take a while. Interestingly, this article by Dan Healing in the Calgary Sun talks about the company shutting down a wind power site in Alberta. This article on Business Standard Tribute talks about recent Hold ratings given for this stock. There is also a recent article on Wall Street Org about this company being possible underpriced.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see these reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF)...learn more. The next stock I will write about is TransCanada Corp. (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP)... learn more on Friday, March 25, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Happiness Advantage by Shawn Achor. learn more...
TransAlta Corp. is Canada's largest investor-owned, unregulated power generation and energy-marketing company. The company owns and operates power plants in North America and Australia. Its web site is here TransAlta Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, March 21, 2016
Melcor Developments Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is Reasonable. It is hard to say if the stock price will go lower. Oil has recently been going up, but will this continue. People are optimistic, but cautious about this being the beginning of a recovery. I will certainly buy more if it goes below $10.00. See my spreadsheet on Melcor Developments Inc.
I own this stock of Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF). This was one of the stocks on Mike Higgs' list of good dividend growth stocks. So I looked into it and bought it. I bought this stock first in 2008 and then some more in 2009. It is a little followed real estate company from Western Canada.
This stock just lowered their dividends by some 20%. Dividends on this stock have gone up as well as down. The stock has often increased their dividends. The growth in dividends to the end of 2015 over the past 5 and 10 years is at 11.4% and 14.9% per year. However, the recent decrease in 2016 lowers dividend growth considerable to 3.7% and 4.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
I think that the company is being prudent by cutting their dividends. This company operates out west and times are not the best in this area of Canada at the present time. I will hold on to my shares as times will get better, but, of course, no one knows when.
I am doing well over all on this stock because I bought some stock in 2009 when the stock tanked. I am earning 4.42% on my original costs. After 7 years, the dividends have covered some 35% of the cost of my stock.
I still consider this stock a dividend growth stocks, but the dividends do fluctuate. They will probably continue to fluctuate. Alberta and Western Canada as a whole tends to have boom and bust times. When you are dependent on resources, this can happen.
The company has very good debt ratios. This is also prudent on their part. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 was 5.36. The Debt Ratio for 2015 was at 2.07. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio for 2015 are 1.93 and 0.93.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.36, 6.07 and 6.79. The 10 year ratios are higher at 5.38, 8.10 and 9.33. The historical median P/E Ratio is 7.08. The current P/E Ratio is 8.64 based on a stock price of $13.82 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $32.55. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.36, 0.56 and 0.68. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.42 based on a stock price of $13.82. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
The current dividend yield is 3.47% based on the new dividend of $0.48 and a stock price of $13.82. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.92% and the historical median dividend yield is 2.73%. These dividend yields are some 19% and 27% lower than the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
This is a little covered stock. There are only two analysts covering it and both give it a Hold recommendation. The 12 month stock price target is $15.75. This implies a total return of 17.44% with 3.47% from dividends and 13.97% from capital gains.
This is a news release by Melcor on Stockhouse about their 2015 financial year. It was not great year and they are decreasing their dividends by 20% for the first dividend of 2016. This Real Estate company operates mostly in Alberta. This article on CBC talks about MRD shelfing plans for land near Regina because the costs do not work. Item on MRD is a little over half way down the page. This article by Doug Madison on FMN talks about Laurentian Bank downgrading this stock from a Buy to a Hold and lowering their target price.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TransAlta Corp. (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC)... learn more on Wednesday, March 23, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book A New History of Life by Ward & Kirschvink learn more...
This company is primarily engaged in the acquisition of land for development and sale of residential communities, multi-family sites and commercial sites. It operates western Canada and the US. The company also develops, owns and manages commercial income properties, as well as four golf courses. Its web site is here Melcor Developments Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF). This was one of the stocks on Mike Higgs' list of good dividend growth stocks. So I looked into it and bought it. I bought this stock first in 2008 and then some more in 2009. It is a little followed real estate company from Western Canada.
This stock just lowered their dividends by some 20%. Dividends on this stock have gone up as well as down. The stock has often increased their dividends. The growth in dividends to the end of 2015 over the past 5 and 10 years is at 11.4% and 14.9% per year. However, the recent decrease in 2016 lowers dividend growth considerable to 3.7% and 4.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
I think that the company is being prudent by cutting their dividends. This company operates out west and times are not the best in this area of Canada at the present time. I will hold on to my shares as times will get better, but, of course, no one knows when.
I am doing well over all on this stock because I bought some stock in 2009 when the stock tanked. I am earning 4.42% on my original costs. After 7 years, the dividends have covered some 35% of the cost of my stock.
I still consider this stock a dividend growth stocks, but the dividends do fluctuate. They will probably continue to fluctuate. Alberta and Western Canada as a whole tends to have boom and bust times. When you are dependent on resources, this can happen.
The company has very good debt ratios. This is also prudent on their part. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 was 5.36. The Debt Ratio for 2015 was at 2.07. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio for 2015 are 1.93 and 0.93.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.36, 6.07 and 6.79. The 10 year ratios are higher at 5.38, 8.10 and 9.33. The historical median P/E Ratio is 7.08. The current P/E Ratio is 8.64 based on a stock price of $13.82 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $32.55. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.36, 0.56 and 0.68. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.42 based on a stock price of $13.82. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
The current dividend yield is 3.47% based on the new dividend of $0.48 and a stock price of $13.82. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.92% and the historical median dividend yield is 2.73%. These dividend yields are some 19% and 27% lower than the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
This is a little covered stock. There are only two analysts covering it and both give it a Hold recommendation. The 12 month stock price target is $15.75. This implies a total return of 17.44% with 3.47% from dividends and 13.97% from capital gains.
This is a news release by Melcor on Stockhouse about their 2015 financial year. It was not great year and they are decreasing their dividends by 20% for the first dividend of 2016. This Real Estate company operates mostly in Alberta. This article on CBC talks about MRD shelfing plans for land near Regina because the costs do not work. Item on MRD is a little over half way down the page. This article by Doug Madison on FMN talks about Laurentian Bank downgrading this stock from a Buy to a Hold and lowering their target price.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TransAlta Corp. (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC)... learn more on Wednesday, March 23, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book A New History of Life by Ward & Kirschvink learn more...
This company is primarily engaged in the acquisition of land for development and sale of residential communities, multi-family sites and commercial sites. It operates western Canada and the US. The company also develops, owns and manages commercial income properties, as well as four golf courses. Its web site is here Melcor Developments Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, March 18, 2016
Enbridge Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Could still be cheap. With long term dividend growth companies, I think that testing the stock price using dividend yield is probably the best. I still do not like the low Liquidity Ratio on this company. See my spreadsheet on Enbridge Inc.
I own this stock of Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB). I first bought this stock in 2005 and then bought more in 2008 and 2009. This stock was on the Dividend Achievers, the Dividend Aristocrats list and also on Mike Higgs' list of Canadian Dividend Growth stocks. Enbridge is considered to be a low risk stock.
The first thing to say is that their site is awful. I am rather focused on what I want to find, I know. However, the site is confusing and has unnecessary pages. There was a separate page for each director for no good reason. There was not that much information on any director and no picture. You have to go through a lot of garbage to get what you want. The page looks like Windows 10 so others may find it appealing.
I must admit that I have done well with this stock. My total return is 15.21% per year with the portion of this total return attributable to capital gains at 11.35%T and the portion of this total return attributable to dividends at 3.86%.
I have had this stock for just over 10 years and I have received $9.29 of dividends per share. The percentage of my original cost paid by dividends is 47.6%. I am making a dividend yield of 11.8% on my original purchase and 10.9% on all my shares.
The above is the good news. What I have not liked about this stock and why it took me until 2005 to purchase it was because of the Liquidity Ratio. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 0.70. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is 0.98. If you add back in current debt and cash flow after dividends you get 1.08.
A ratio of less than 1.00 says that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. Desirable ratio is 1.50 and above. A low ratio makes a company vulnerable in bad times. It also says something, but not anything good, about the company when I had to muck around with it so much to get the ratio above 1.00.
This company had an earnings loss in 2015, but it is not expected to reoccur. Analysts expect the EPS to be $2.34 in 2016. This is in contrast to the EPS of $1.37 in 2014. The company gave an Adjusted EPS of $2.20. Part of the reason for the loss is Goodwill impairment, but other costs were up as well in 2015. The Diluted EPS based on comprehensive income is $2.37 for 2015 (and $1.57 for 2014). Looking at Adjusted EPS and comprehensive income shows that analysts might be right about the EPS for 2016.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 33.47, 38.65 and 43.82. The corresponding 10 years ratios are a lot lower at 17.95, 20.36 and 22.77. The historical median P/E Ratio 16.66. This tells you that the P/E Ratios have been climbing a lot lately. The current ratio is 21.38 based on a stock $50.03 and 2016 EPS estimate of $2.34. This testing suggests that the stock price might be reasonable, but above the median.
The 5 year P/E Ratios are far too high for a utility. The 10 years ratios are much more reasonable. When ratios are far too high for a stock of a certainly class, you wonder how trustworthy it is basing a stock price on such ratios.
I get a Graham Price of $29.68. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.49, 1.75 and 1.69. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.69 based on a stock price of $50.03. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price might be relatively reasonable.
The stock price testing based on dividends might be the best test. The current dividend yield is 4.24% based on dividends on $2.12 and a stock price of $50.03. The historical median dividend yield is 3.48%. This yield is some 22% below the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price relatively reasonable if not relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The vast majority of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month target price is $55.09. This implies a total return of 14.35% with 4.24% from dividends and 10.11% from capital gains based on a current price of $50.03.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and a here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Canadian Banks learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF)...learn more on Monday, March 21, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Rise to Greatness by Conrad Black learn more...
Enbridge is focused on three core businesses of crude oil and liquids pipelines, natural gas pipelines, and natural gas distribution. They operate in Canada and US. Its web site is here Enbridge Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB). I first bought this stock in 2005 and then bought more in 2008 and 2009. This stock was on the Dividend Achievers, the Dividend Aristocrats list and also on Mike Higgs' list of Canadian Dividend Growth stocks. Enbridge is considered to be a low risk stock.
The first thing to say is that their site is awful. I am rather focused on what I want to find, I know. However, the site is confusing and has unnecessary pages. There was a separate page for each director for no good reason. There was not that much information on any director and no picture. You have to go through a lot of garbage to get what you want. The page looks like Windows 10 so others may find it appealing.
I must admit that I have done well with this stock. My total return is 15.21% per year with the portion of this total return attributable to capital gains at 11.35%T and the portion of this total return attributable to dividends at 3.86%.
I have had this stock for just over 10 years and I have received $9.29 of dividends per share. The percentage of my original cost paid by dividends is 47.6%. I am making a dividend yield of 11.8% on my original purchase and 10.9% on all my shares.
The above is the good news. What I have not liked about this stock and why it took me until 2005 to purchase it was because of the Liquidity Ratio. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 0.70. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is 0.98. If you add back in current debt and cash flow after dividends you get 1.08.
A ratio of less than 1.00 says that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. Desirable ratio is 1.50 and above. A low ratio makes a company vulnerable in bad times. It also says something, but not anything good, about the company when I had to muck around with it so much to get the ratio above 1.00.
This company had an earnings loss in 2015, but it is not expected to reoccur. Analysts expect the EPS to be $2.34 in 2016. This is in contrast to the EPS of $1.37 in 2014. The company gave an Adjusted EPS of $2.20. Part of the reason for the loss is Goodwill impairment, but other costs were up as well in 2015. The Diluted EPS based on comprehensive income is $2.37 for 2015 (and $1.57 for 2014). Looking at Adjusted EPS and comprehensive income shows that analysts might be right about the EPS for 2016.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 33.47, 38.65 and 43.82. The corresponding 10 years ratios are a lot lower at 17.95, 20.36 and 22.77. The historical median P/E Ratio 16.66. This tells you that the P/E Ratios have been climbing a lot lately. The current ratio is 21.38 based on a stock $50.03 and 2016 EPS estimate of $2.34. This testing suggests that the stock price might be reasonable, but above the median.
The 5 year P/E Ratios are far too high for a utility. The 10 years ratios are much more reasonable. When ratios are far too high for a stock of a certainly class, you wonder how trustworthy it is basing a stock price on such ratios.
I get a Graham Price of $29.68. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.49, 1.75 and 1.69. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.69 based on a stock price of $50.03. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price might be relatively reasonable.
The stock price testing based on dividends might be the best test. The current dividend yield is 4.24% based on dividends on $2.12 and a stock price of $50.03. The historical median dividend yield is 3.48%. This yield is some 22% below the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price relatively reasonable if not relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The vast majority of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month target price is $55.09. This implies a total return of 14.35% with 4.24% from dividends and 10.11% from capital gains based on a current price of $50.03.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and a here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Canadian Banks learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF)...learn more on Monday, March 21, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Rise to Greatness by Conrad Black learn more...
Enbridge is focused on three core businesses of crude oil and liquids pipelines, natural gas pipelines, and natural gas distribution. They operate in Canada and US. Its web site is here Enbridge Inc.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
Richelieu Hardware Ltd
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is current a bit high. I would not buy until dividend yield goes above 1%. Insiders are also selling. Maybe they think price is rather high too? See my spreadsheet on Richelieu Hardware Ltd.
I own this stock of Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF). I initially bought this stock in 2007 because it was recommend by the Investment Reporter. It is not on any of the dividend lists, probably because they only started to pay dividends in 2000. This stock would be considered to be a dividend paying growth stock. This stock has been much recommended by MPL Communications.
Dividends are low, but the dividend growth is to me moderate. This stock often pays dividends above 1%. The current dividend yield is 0.93% based on dividends of $0.21 and a stock price of $22.99. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.29% and historical median is 1.18%. The dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is 10.8% and 11.6% per year.
I discuss the implications of dividend yield and dividend growth in a blog posting I did in July 2015. See that report here and the accompanying spreadsheet is here. Personally, I do not buy any stock when the yield is below 1%.
When I bought this stock I was earning 1.74% in dividend yield. Today, after 7 years, my dividend yield on my original purchase price is 3.48%. This is slightly better than if the stock was bought some 5 or 10 years ago at a median price. In these cases the dividend yield on original purchase would be at 2.30% and 2.78%.
For the stock, the outstanding shares have been declining over the past 5 and 10 years at 1.6% and 1.7% per year. This would tend to make per share values look a bit better than they actually are. To illustrate this is I looked at revenue. The growth is revenue over the past 5 and 10 years is 10.9% and 7.9% per year. The growth in revenue per share over the past 5 and 10 years is 12.6% and 9.7% per year.
This company has a strong balance sheet. This is important as the company is in a cyclical business. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 4.40. The Debt Ratio for 2015 is 5.42. For these ratios I look for values of 1.50 and higher.
I have 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 15.46, 18.11 and 20.76. These are higher than the corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios of 14.03, 15.47 and 16.94. The historical median P/E Ratios is even lower at 14.49. The current P/E Ratio is 21.29. This is based on a stock price of $22.99 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.08. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
I get a Graham Price of $12.26. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.16, 1.29 and 1.43. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.87 based on a stock price of $22.99. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
If you look at dividend yields, the answer on the stock price is the same. The current dividend yield is 0.93% based on dividends of $0.21 and a stock price of $22.99. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.29% and the historical median dividend yield is 1.18%. These values are some 28% and 21% higher than the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find that 3 analysts are following this stock and they all give a stock recommendation of Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $25.17. This implies a total return of 10.41% with 9.48% from capital gains and 0.93% from dividends.
When I look at insider selling over the past year, I find Net Insider selling is at 0.34% of market cap. Last year it was at 0.07% of market cap. Insider selling is rather high for the past year as the median Net Insider Selling for the stocks I follow is 0.03% and 75% of the stocks have NIS at 0.11% or less.
Jane Larson on Hilltop News talk about recent earnings estimates from Scotiabank for this stock. Kay Ng of Motley Fool likes this stock. (Please note that you may have to use your arrow on your browser to exit and go back into this article to get the full article. This is the way Motley Fool articles work.) In this Newswire release, Richelieu Hardware announces its recent 3 for 1 split.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about the TFSA account learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB)... learn more on Friday, March 18, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Almost Nearly Perfect People by Michael Booth learn more...
This company is a distributor, importer and manufacturer of specialty hardware and complementary products. Its products are kitchen and bathroom cabinets, furniture, and window and door. It is also involved with residential and commercial woodworking industry. It has a large customer base of hardware retailers. Its web site is here Richelieu Hardware Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF). I initially bought this stock in 2007 because it was recommend by the Investment Reporter. It is not on any of the dividend lists, probably because they only started to pay dividends in 2000. This stock would be considered to be a dividend paying growth stock. This stock has been much recommended by MPL Communications.
Dividends are low, but the dividend growth is to me moderate. This stock often pays dividends above 1%. The current dividend yield is 0.93% based on dividends of $0.21 and a stock price of $22.99. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.29% and historical median is 1.18%. The dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is 10.8% and 11.6% per year.
I discuss the implications of dividend yield and dividend growth in a blog posting I did in July 2015. See that report here and the accompanying spreadsheet is here. Personally, I do not buy any stock when the yield is below 1%.
When I bought this stock I was earning 1.74% in dividend yield. Today, after 7 years, my dividend yield on my original purchase price is 3.48%. This is slightly better than if the stock was bought some 5 or 10 years ago at a median price. In these cases the dividend yield on original purchase would be at 2.30% and 2.78%.
For the stock, the outstanding shares have been declining over the past 5 and 10 years at 1.6% and 1.7% per year. This would tend to make per share values look a bit better than they actually are. To illustrate this is I looked at revenue. The growth is revenue over the past 5 and 10 years is 10.9% and 7.9% per year. The growth in revenue per share over the past 5 and 10 years is 12.6% and 9.7% per year.
This company has a strong balance sheet. This is important as the company is in a cyclical business. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 4.40. The Debt Ratio for 2015 is 5.42. For these ratios I look for values of 1.50 and higher.
I have 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 15.46, 18.11 and 20.76. These are higher than the corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios of 14.03, 15.47 and 16.94. The historical median P/E Ratios is even lower at 14.49. The current P/E Ratio is 21.29. This is based on a stock price of $22.99 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.08. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
I get a Graham Price of $12.26. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.16, 1.29 and 1.43. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.87 based on a stock price of $22.99. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
If you look at dividend yields, the answer on the stock price is the same. The current dividend yield is 0.93% based on dividends of $0.21 and a stock price of $22.99. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.29% and the historical median dividend yield is 1.18%. These values are some 28% and 21% higher than the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find that 3 analysts are following this stock and they all give a stock recommendation of Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $25.17. This implies a total return of 10.41% with 9.48% from capital gains and 0.93% from dividends.
When I look at insider selling over the past year, I find Net Insider selling is at 0.34% of market cap. Last year it was at 0.07% of market cap. Insider selling is rather high for the past year as the median Net Insider Selling for the stocks I follow is 0.03% and 75% of the stocks have NIS at 0.11% or less.
Jane Larson on Hilltop News talk about recent earnings estimates from Scotiabank for this stock. Kay Ng of Motley Fool likes this stock. (Please note that you may have to use your arrow on your browser to exit and go back into this article to get the full article. This is the way Motley Fool articles work.) In this Newswire release, Richelieu Hardware announces its recent 3 for 1 split.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about the TFSA account learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB)... learn more on Friday, March 18, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Almost Nearly Perfect People by Michael Booth learn more...
This company is a distributor, importer and manufacturer of specialty hardware and complementary products. Its products are kitchen and bathroom cabinets, furniture, and window and door. It is also involved with residential and commercial woodworking industry. It has a large customer base of hardware retailers. Its web site is here Richelieu Hardware Ltd.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, March 14, 2016
Canadian Tire Corp.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price Reasonable to Expensive. Insiders are buying shares with Net Insider Buying at 0.03% of market cap. This is, relatively speaking, a lot. Based on dividend yield, the price is good. Based on P/E Ratios or P/GP Ratios, the stock price is just over the line as expensive. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Tire Corp.
I own this stock of Canadian Tire Corp. (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF). In 2000 when I first bought this stock, it was on the Investment Reporter's list of conservative Canadian stocks. I bought stock for my trading account in 2009 because I have done well with it in my Pension Account and it was a consumer stock.
In my Trading Account since 2009 I have earned 16.02% per year with 1.67% per year attributed to dividends and 14.35% per year attributed to capital gains. I have sold off most in my pension account because when I have had to sell stocks in my Pension Account because of necessary withdrawals, I have sold off the stocks with the lowest dividend yields.
However, this is a better stock for when you are accumulating stocks or for a Trading Account. The dividend yield is low but the dividend increases are good. High dividend increases on some stock in a trading account will help to push up your overall dividend growth.
The current dividend yield is 1.70% based on dividends of $2.30 and a stock price of $135.45. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.71%. The dividends have grown 20.1% and 13.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was in 2016 and it was for 9.5%.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $146.69. This implies a total return of 10% with 1.70% from dividends and 8.30% from capital gains.
There is a great article in Canadian Business by John Lorinc on how this company is adapting to digital marketing. Benjamin Sinclair of Motley Fool likes this stock. A number of analysts seem to feel the stock is overpriced at Stock Chase.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.07, 12.15 and 14.56. The 10 years corresponding ratios are similar at 10.00, 12.07 and 15.11. The current P/E Ratio is 15.55 based on a stock price of $135.45 and 2016 EPS estimate of $8.71. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $114.96. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.68, 0.83 and 1.04. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.18 based on a stock price of $135.45. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The current dividend yield is 1.70% based on dividends of $2.30 and a stock price of $135.45. The historical median dividend yield is 1.68%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF) learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF)... learn more on Wednesday, March 16, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Political Order and Political Decay by Francis Fukuyama learn more...
Canadian Tire operates several retail businesses that offer everyday products and services through a network of over 1,700 locations across the country. The key banners that the company operates under include Canadian Tire Retail, FGL Sports, Mark's, Petroleum, Part Source, and Financial Services. Its web site is here Canadian Tire Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Canadian Tire Corp. (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF). In 2000 when I first bought this stock, it was on the Investment Reporter's list of conservative Canadian stocks. I bought stock for my trading account in 2009 because I have done well with it in my Pension Account and it was a consumer stock.
In my Trading Account since 2009 I have earned 16.02% per year with 1.67% per year attributed to dividends and 14.35% per year attributed to capital gains. I have sold off most in my pension account because when I have had to sell stocks in my Pension Account because of necessary withdrawals, I have sold off the stocks with the lowest dividend yields.
However, this is a better stock for when you are accumulating stocks or for a Trading Account. The dividend yield is low but the dividend increases are good. High dividend increases on some stock in a trading account will help to push up your overall dividend growth.
The current dividend yield is 1.70% based on dividends of $2.30 and a stock price of $135.45. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.71%. The dividends have grown 20.1% and 13.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was in 2016 and it was for 9.5%.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $146.69. This implies a total return of 10% with 1.70% from dividends and 8.30% from capital gains.
There is a great article in Canadian Business by John Lorinc on how this company is adapting to digital marketing. Benjamin Sinclair of Motley Fool likes this stock. A number of analysts seem to feel the stock is overpriced at Stock Chase.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.07, 12.15 and 14.56. The 10 years corresponding ratios are similar at 10.00, 12.07 and 15.11. The current P/E Ratio is 15.55 based on a stock price of $135.45 and 2016 EPS estimate of $8.71. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $114.96. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.68, 0.83 and 1.04. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.18 based on a stock price of $135.45. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The current dividend yield is 1.70% based on dividends of $2.30 and a stock price of $135.45. The historical median dividend yield is 1.68%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
The last stock I wrote about was H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF) learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF)... learn more on Wednesday, March 16, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Political Order and Political Decay by Francis Fukuyama learn more...
Canadian Tire operates several retail businesses that offer everyday products and services through a network of over 1,700 locations across the country. The key banners that the company operates under include Canadian Tire Retail, FGL Sports, Mark's, Petroleum, Part Source, and Financial Services. Its web site is here Canadian Tire Corp.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, March 11, 2016
H & R Real Estate Trust
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is cheap to reasonable. They have exposure to Alberta, but a lot of that is under long term leases. Long Term this REIT should do fine and currently you can earn some very good yields. No one seems to think that distributions will be cut and some believe they will be raised. See my spreadsheet on H & R Real Estate Trust.
I do not own this stock of H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF). Before I started blogging, I was following a number of REITs and this is one I had followed. It also used to be on a dividend list I followed.
The outstanding shares have been increasing at 13.9% and 9.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Debenture Conversions, DRIP, Stock Options and Share Issues. Because of this per shares values are the important ones to use to determine growth.
Revenue growth is good, but Revenue per Share is not. Revenue has grown at 14% and 9.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 0.09% and a negative 0.38% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow is better with Cash Flow growth at 25.9% and 15.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years and Cash Flow per Share growth at 10.6% and 5.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) growth is rather a mixed bag with AFFO growth at 4.7% and 0.8% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. AFFO is a newer measure than FFO. FFO growth is 8.8% and 1.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The growth in distributions looks like the growth in FFO with the 5 and 10 years growth at 11.4% and 0.34%. The reason for the low 10 year growth is because distributions were cut in by 50% in 2009 because they were having some problems. The distributions were at $1.44 before this cut and this REIT has not made it back to this amount, but it is close at $1.35.
Distribution yield is good and growth is a bit inconsistent. The current distribution yield is 6.98% which is rather high. This is based on distributions of $1.35 and a stock price of $19.33. The 5 year growth of 11.4% looks good, but this is because they had cut the distributions in half in 2009 and they have been trying to catch up to previous distributions.
There has been no distribution increase since 2013. A number of analysts expect a small increase in the 2.2% range either for 2016 or 2017. Most REITs have distributions slightly above inflation and this REIT will probably to back to this sort of growth in distributions.
As this is a REIT, it makes more sense to look at P/FFO and P/AFFO Ratios than Price/Earnings per Share Ratio (P/E Ratio). The 5 year low, median and high median P/AFFO Ratios are 13.50, 15.08 and 16.80. The current P/AFFO is 11.30. This is based on a stock price of $19.33 and 2016 AFFO estimate of $1.71. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 5 year low, median and high median P/FFO Ratios are 11.27, 12.51 and 13.76. The 10 year corresponding ratios are similar 11.16, 12.68 and 13.89. The current P/FFO is 10.12. This is based on a stock price of $19.33 and 2016 FFO estimate of $1.91. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
This REIT also had some past very high yields as its historical high is just over 12%. The historical median yield is 6.49% and this is some 7.6% lower than the current yield of 6.98%. The current yield is based on a stock price of $19.33 and distributions of $1.35. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 5 year median yield is lower at 5.95% and the current yield of 6.98% is some 17.4% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold Recommendations. The recommendations are evenly split between these two categories. The consensus would then be a Buy. The 12 month target price is $23.53. This implies a total return of 28.71% with 6.98% from dividends and 21.73% from capital gains. This calculation is based on a stock price of $19.33.
In this article by Kay Ng of Motley Fool points out that the reason for this REITs high yield is that it is highly exposed to Alberta and therefore to the energy business. Seth Hatwan on Hilltop News talks about recent analysts' recommendations on this stock. On February 17, 2016, this REIT talks about their fourth quarterly results via Newswire. View recent analysts' comments on Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about something to buy March 2016 learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Tire Corp. (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF)... learn more on Monday, March 14, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari. learn more...
H&R Real Estate Investment trust is an open-ended real estate investment trust. They have a portfolio of office properties, single-tenant industrial properties, retail properties and development projects. They operate across Canada and US. Its web site is here H & R Real Estate Trust .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF). Before I started blogging, I was following a number of REITs and this is one I had followed. It also used to be on a dividend list I followed.
The outstanding shares have been increasing at 13.9% and 9.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Debenture Conversions, DRIP, Stock Options and Share Issues. Because of this per shares values are the important ones to use to determine growth.
Revenue growth is good, but Revenue per Share is not. Revenue has grown at 14% and 9.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 0.09% and a negative 0.38% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow is better with Cash Flow growth at 25.9% and 15.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years and Cash Flow per Share growth at 10.6% and 5.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) growth is rather a mixed bag with AFFO growth at 4.7% and 0.8% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. AFFO is a newer measure than FFO. FFO growth is 8.8% and 1.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The growth in distributions looks like the growth in FFO with the 5 and 10 years growth at 11.4% and 0.34%. The reason for the low 10 year growth is because distributions were cut in by 50% in 2009 because they were having some problems. The distributions were at $1.44 before this cut and this REIT has not made it back to this amount, but it is close at $1.35.
Distribution yield is good and growth is a bit inconsistent. The current distribution yield is 6.98% which is rather high. This is based on distributions of $1.35 and a stock price of $19.33. The 5 year growth of 11.4% looks good, but this is because they had cut the distributions in half in 2009 and they have been trying to catch up to previous distributions.
There has been no distribution increase since 2013. A number of analysts expect a small increase in the 2.2% range either for 2016 or 2017. Most REITs have distributions slightly above inflation and this REIT will probably to back to this sort of growth in distributions.
As this is a REIT, it makes more sense to look at P/FFO and P/AFFO Ratios than Price/Earnings per Share Ratio (P/E Ratio). The 5 year low, median and high median P/AFFO Ratios are 13.50, 15.08 and 16.80. The current P/AFFO is 11.30. This is based on a stock price of $19.33 and 2016 AFFO estimate of $1.71. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 5 year low, median and high median P/FFO Ratios are 11.27, 12.51 and 13.76. The 10 year corresponding ratios are similar 11.16, 12.68 and 13.89. The current P/FFO is 10.12. This is based on a stock price of $19.33 and 2016 FFO estimate of $1.91. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
This REIT also had some past very high yields as its historical high is just over 12%. The historical median yield is 6.49% and this is some 7.6% lower than the current yield of 6.98%. The current yield is based on a stock price of $19.33 and distributions of $1.35. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 5 year median yield is lower at 5.95% and the current yield of 6.98% is some 17.4% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold Recommendations. The recommendations are evenly split between these two categories. The consensus would then be a Buy. The 12 month target price is $23.53. This implies a total return of 28.71% with 6.98% from dividends and 21.73% from capital gains. This calculation is based on a stock price of $19.33.
In this article by Kay Ng of Motley Fool points out that the reason for this REITs high yield is that it is highly exposed to Alberta and therefore to the energy business. Seth Hatwan on Hilltop News talks about recent analysts' recommendations on this stock. On February 17, 2016, this REIT talks about their fourth quarterly results via Newswire. View recent analysts' comments on Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about something to buy March 2016 learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Tire Corp. (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF)... learn more on Monday, March 14, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari. learn more...
H&R Real Estate Investment trust is an open-ended real estate investment trust. They have a portfolio of office properties, single-tenant industrial properties, retail properties and development projects. They operate across Canada and US. Its web site is here H & R Real Estate Trust .
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, March 9, 2016
RioCan Real Estate
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Reasonable and below median. Maybe I am too slow in selling stocks that are not doing well, but I noticed that not changing my portfolio much has done wonders to my overall performance. Besides, I believe that this company is or will be recovering and be a great investment. See my spreadsheet on RioCan Real Estate.
I own this stock of RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF). I first bought this stock 1998 because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. It was a stock covered and recommended by MPL Communications in their Income Trust coverage. Over the years I have made several more purchases of this REIT.
I must admit it has been a bit of a disappointment that this REIT has not been able to grow much in the way of distributions since 2010. However, I have done well with stock. I start to purchase shares in 1998 and have earned a total return of 12.98% per year. However, when you invest for the long term, a company will have its ups and downs. Unfortunately, most analysts do not see any increase in distributions over the next couple of years.
Investing in this stock has been quite a different experience that mine with Metro. Here some 67% of my total return was in distributions and only 33% in capital gain. However, on this stock most of the distributions has been in Other Income.
It was not a good year as far as earnings go because of losses due to discontinued business. However, Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) are more important for REITs than EPS. Growth in FFO and AFFO has been low but has picked up in the few years. FFO growth is 6.1% and 3.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. AFFO growth is 3.9% and 2.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
They did not cover their distributions with EPS for 2015 but the Dividend Payout Ratios for FFO and AFFO are better. The DPR for FFO in 2015 was 85.5% and for AFFO in 2015 was 72.3%. Their problem was that between 2006 and 2011 they paid out more than 100% of the AFFO in distributions. For 2016 DPR for AFFO is expected to be around 95%. This is the top end of the good range for DPR for AFFO.
Distribution growth was at 0.43% and 1.03% for the past 5 and 10 years. Since 2010 there was only one distribution increase in 2013 of 2.2%. This is the reason for the low growth in distributions.
The growth in distribution is lower than the rate of inflation which the Bank of Canada says is at 1.37% and 1.07% for core and total inflation over the past 5 years and at 1.56% and 1.49% per year for core and total inflation over the past 10 years.
Because this is a REIT, I will be looking at Price/FFO Ratios and Price/AFFO Ratios when evaluating the stock price. The 5 year low, median and high median P/FFO Ratios are 15.10, 17.01 and 18.81. The 10 year corresponding ratios are lower at 13.77, 15.87 and 17.55. The current P/FFO Ratios is 15.91 based on a stock price of $26.25 and 2016 FFO estimate of $1.65. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
The 5 year low, median and high median P/AFFO Ratios are 16.23, 17.93 and 19.94. The 10 year corresponding ratios are lower at 15.59, 17.66 and 19.55. The current P/AFFO Ratios is 17.62 based on a stock price of $26.25 and 2016 FFO estimate of $1.49. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
Because the dividend yields on this stock got very high in 2000 (just over 13%), the historical average and historical median dividend yields are quite high at 8.95% and 7.65%, respectively. On this basis the current dividend yield at 5.37% shows this stock as expensive. The dividend yield of 5.37% is based on distributions of $1.41 and a stock price of $26.25.
However, the 5 year median dividend yield is lower at 5.31% and with the current dividend yield at 5.37% it suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Holder Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $27.50. This implies a total return of 10.13% with 5.37% from dividends and 4.76% from capital gains.
Nelson Smith of Motley Fool expects this company to do well now that its problems with Target is past. In this article in the Financial Post, Barry Critchley explains why this company is redeeming its rate reset preferreds. This post by Seth Hatwan on Hill Top News talks about this company having a consensus analysts' recommendation of Buy. According to Marina Strauss in the Globe and Mail RioCan's troubles over Target may not be over as other tenants are seeking relief or the right to vacant malls because of Target's collapse. Edward Sonshine the CEO of RioCan thinks the problems about Target will all be over by 2017. See what analysts are saying at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog I wrote today about inflation learn more . The next stock I will write about will be H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF)... learn more on Friday, March 11, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Flash Points by George Friedman learn more...
RioCan is Canada's largest real estate investment trust exclusively focused on retail real estate. Their core strategy is to own and manage community-oriented neighbourhood shopping centers anchored by supermarkets, together with a rapidly expanding mix of new format retail centers. RioCan owns interests in 51 centers in the United States located in the Northeastern United States and Texas, managed through its offices in New Jersey and Dallas. Its web site is here RioCan Real Estate.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF). I first bought this stock 1998 because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. It was a stock covered and recommended by MPL Communications in their Income Trust coverage. Over the years I have made several more purchases of this REIT.
I must admit it has been a bit of a disappointment that this REIT has not been able to grow much in the way of distributions since 2010. However, I have done well with stock. I start to purchase shares in 1998 and have earned a total return of 12.98% per year. However, when you invest for the long term, a company will have its ups and downs. Unfortunately, most analysts do not see any increase in distributions over the next couple of years.
Investing in this stock has been quite a different experience that mine with Metro. Here some 67% of my total return was in distributions and only 33% in capital gain. However, on this stock most of the distributions has been in Other Income.
It was not a good year as far as earnings go because of losses due to discontinued business. However, Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) are more important for REITs than EPS. Growth in FFO and AFFO has been low but has picked up in the few years. FFO growth is 6.1% and 3.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. AFFO growth is 3.9% and 2.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
They did not cover their distributions with EPS for 2015 but the Dividend Payout Ratios for FFO and AFFO are better. The DPR for FFO in 2015 was 85.5% and for AFFO in 2015 was 72.3%. Their problem was that between 2006 and 2011 they paid out more than 100% of the AFFO in distributions. For 2016 DPR for AFFO is expected to be around 95%. This is the top end of the good range for DPR for AFFO.
Distribution growth was at 0.43% and 1.03% for the past 5 and 10 years. Since 2010 there was only one distribution increase in 2013 of 2.2%. This is the reason for the low growth in distributions.
The growth in distribution is lower than the rate of inflation which the Bank of Canada says is at 1.37% and 1.07% for core and total inflation over the past 5 years and at 1.56% and 1.49% per year for core and total inflation over the past 10 years.
Because this is a REIT, I will be looking at Price/FFO Ratios and Price/AFFO Ratios when evaluating the stock price. The 5 year low, median and high median P/FFO Ratios are 15.10, 17.01 and 18.81. The 10 year corresponding ratios are lower at 13.77, 15.87 and 17.55. The current P/FFO Ratios is 15.91 based on a stock price of $26.25 and 2016 FFO estimate of $1.65. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
The 5 year low, median and high median P/AFFO Ratios are 16.23, 17.93 and 19.94. The 10 year corresponding ratios are lower at 15.59, 17.66 and 19.55. The current P/AFFO Ratios is 17.62 based on a stock price of $26.25 and 2016 FFO estimate of $1.49. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
Because the dividend yields on this stock got very high in 2000 (just over 13%), the historical average and historical median dividend yields are quite high at 8.95% and 7.65%, respectively. On this basis the current dividend yield at 5.37% shows this stock as expensive. The dividend yield of 5.37% is based on distributions of $1.41 and a stock price of $26.25.
However, the 5 year median dividend yield is lower at 5.31% and with the current dividend yield at 5.37% it suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Holder Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $27.50. This implies a total return of 10.13% with 5.37% from dividends and 4.76% from capital gains.
Nelson Smith of Motley Fool expects this company to do well now that its problems with Target is past. In this article in the Financial Post, Barry Critchley explains why this company is redeeming its rate reset preferreds. This post by Seth Hatwan on Hill Top News talks about this company having a consensus analysts' recommendation of Buy. According to Marina Strauss in the Globe and Mail RioCan's troubles over Target may not be over as other tenants are seeking relief or the right to vacant malls because of Target's collapse. Edward Sonshine the CEO of RioCan thinks the problems about Target will all be over by 2017. See what analysts are saying at Stock Chase.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog I wrote today about inflation learn more . The next stock I will write about will be H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF)... learn more on Friday, March 11, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Flash Points by George Friedman learn more...
RioCan is Canada's largest real estate investment trust exclusively focused on retail real estate. Their core strategy is to own and manage community-oriented neighbourhood shopping centers anchored by supermarkets, together with a rapidly expanding mix of new format retail centers. RioCan owns interests in 51 centers in the United States located in the Northeastern United States and Texas, managed through its offices in New Jersey and Dallas. Its web site is here RioCan Real Estate.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, March 7, 2016
Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Probably cheap. On a number of measures this REIT is showing as cheap. Not so using dividend yield but dividend yields go very high around 2008 that we may never see them that high again. See my spreadsheet on Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.
I do not own this stock of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC- APYRF). Since several stocks that I followed last year were deleted from the stock exchange, I was looking for other stocks to follow. I am sure that I got this from a Canadian Dividend site called Think Dividends, but I cannot find it at present.
There has been a lot of growth in shares. Over the past 5 and 10 years shares have grown at 13% and 17% per year. Shares have grown due to Share Issues, DRIP and Stock Options. When such growth in shares occurs you have to look at per share values to see how well the company is doing.
For example, Revenue growth looks great at 14.7% and 21.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, Revenue per Share growth is a lot lower and not great at 1.3% and 3.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth in AFFO, FFO and CFPS has been moderate, so not a problem as the lack of growth for Revenue per Share.
The dividends yield is good and the dividend growth is low. This is sort of what you expect from a REIT. The current dividend yield is 4.52% based on a stock price of $33.19. The 5 year median dividend yield is at 4.34%. The dividend growth is at 2.03% and 2.23% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The most recent increase was in 2016 and it was for 2.8%.
The growth in dividends is better than the rate of inflation which the Bank of Canada says is at 1.37% and 1.07% for core and total inflation over the past 5 years and at 1.56% and 1.49% per year for core and total inflation over the past 10 years.
It is probably best to look at the Dividend Payout Ratios using Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) and Funds from Operations (FFO). This is generally what is look at in REITs rather than EPS. In 2015 the DPR for AFFO was 80.6% and for FFO was 67%. The 5 year median DPR for AFFO was 85% and for FFO was 73%. This would suggest that the REIT can afford its dividends.
It is interesting to me that there are insider buyers and sellers. Insider selling is at 0.18% and insider buying is at 0.10% to get net insider selling at 0.08%. Insider selling is rather high and is just a bit higher than the increase in shares for this REIT for stock options which is at 0.15%. The insider selling is by directors.
The Liquidity Ratio is very low and generally Liquidity Ratios tend to be low in REITs. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 was 0.21. Adding in Cash Flow after dividends only gets us to 0.47. When ratio is below 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. This can make a company vulnerable in bad times. The other debt ratios are fine.
To check the current stock price, I am looking at Price/AFFO and Price/FFO Ratios rather than Price/Earnings per Share Ratios. The 5 year low, median and high median P/FFO Ratios are 15.24, 16.73 and 18.22. The 10 year values are a lot lower at 13.11, 15.17 and 17.24. The current P/FFO Ratio is 14.24 based on a stock price of $33.19 and 2016 FFO estimate of $2.33. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is close to cheap, if not cheap.
The 5 year low, median and high median P/FFO Ratios are 17.79, 19.92 and 22.60. The 10 year values are a lower at 16.17, 18.17 and 19.93. The current P/FFO Ratio is 16.51 based on a stock price of $33.19 and 2016 FFO estimate of $2.01. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is close to cheap, if not cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $41.62. The 10 year low, median and high median P/GP Ratios are 0.81, 0.90 and 1.01. The current P/PG Ratio is 0.80 based on a stock price of $33.19. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
This REIT had very high dividend yield in 2008/2009. It was not the only REIT to do this. As a result of this this REIT has very high historical yields with the historical high at 12% and the historical median at 6%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.34% and this is some 4% lower than the current dividend yield of 4.52%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $37.52. This implies a total return of 17.57% with 13.01% from capital gains and 4.52% from dividends.
Kay Ng of the Motley Fool likes this stock. One reason is their diversified tenant base. Doug Madison of Financial Market News talks about a Director buying shares and what several research firms have said about this stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog tomorrow I will write about Dividend Stocks for March 2016, learn more on Tuesday, March 8, 2016 around 5 pm. The last stock I wrote about was Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC- CRXIF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC- RIOCF)... learn more on Wednesday, March 9, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book How Civilizations Die by David Goldman,learn more...
Allied Properties REIT owns a portfolio of predominantly Class I office properties in Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg, Quebec City, Ottawa, Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, and Kitchener-Waterloo. Its web site is here Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC- APYRF). Since several stocks that I followed last year were deleted from the stock exchange, I was looking for other stocks to follow. I am sure that I got this from a Canadian Dividend site called Think Dividends, but I cannot find it at present.
There has been a lot of growth in shares. Over the past 5 and 10 years shares have grown at 13% and 17% per year. Shares have grown due to Share Issues, DRIP and Stock Options. When such growth in shares occurs you have to look at per share values to see how well the company is doing.
For example, Revenue growth looks great at 14.7% and 21.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, Revenue per Share growth is a lot lower and not great at 1.3% and 3.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth in AFFO, FFO and CFPS has been moderate, so not a problem as the lack of growth for Revenue per Share.
The dividends yield is good and the dividend growth is low. This is sort of what you expect from a REIT. The current dividend yield is 4.52% based on a stock price of $33.19. The 5 year median dividend yield is at 4.34%. The dividend growth is at 2.03% and 2.23% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The most recent increase was in 2016 and it was for 2.8%.
The growth in dividends is better than the rate of inflation which the Bank of Canada says is at 1.37% and 1.07% for core and total inflation over the past 5 years and at 1.56% and 1.49% per year for core and total inflation over the past 10 years.
It is probably best to look at the Dividend Payout Ratios using Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) and Funds from Operations (FFO). This is generally what is look at in REITs rather than EPS. In 2015 the DPR for AFFO was 80.6% and for FFO was 67%. The 5 year median DPR for AFFO was 85% and for FFO was 73%. This would suggest that the REIT can afford its dividends.
It is interesting to me that there are insider buyers and sellers. Insider selling is at 0.18% and insider buying is at 0.10% to get net insider selling at 0.08%. Insider selling is rather high and is just a bit higher than the increase in shares for this REIT for stock options which is at 0.15%. The insider selling is by directors.
The Liquidity Ratio is very low and generally Liquidity Ratios tend to be low in REITs. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 was 0.21. Adding in Cash Flow after dividends only gets us to 0.47. When ratio is below 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. This can make a company vulnerable in bad times. The other debt ratios are fine.
To check the current stock price, I am looking at Price/AFFO and Price/FFO Ratios rather than Price/Earnings per Share Ratios. The 5 year low, median and high median P/FFO Ratios are 15.24, 16.73 and 18.22. The 10 year values are a lot lower at 13.11, 15.17 and 17.24. The current P/FFO Ratio is 14.24 based on a stock price of $33.19 and 2016 FFO estimate of $2.33. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is close to cheap, if not cheap.
The 5 year low, median and high median P/FFO Ratios are 17.79, 19.92 and 22.60. The 10 year values are a lower at 16.17, 18.17 and 19.93. The current P/FFO Ratio is 16.51 based on a stock price of $33.19 and 2016 FFO estimate of $2.01. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is close to cheap, if not cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $41.62. The 10 year low, median and high median P/GP Ratios are 0.81, 0.90 and 1.01. The current P/PG Ratio is 0.80 based on a stock price of $33.19. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
This REIT had very high dividend yield in 2008/2009. It was not the only REIT to do this. As a result of this this REIT has very high historical yields with the historical high at 12% and the historical median at 6%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.34% and this is some 4% lower than the current dividend yield of 4.52%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $37.52. This implies a total return of 17.57% with 13.01% from capital gains and 4.52% from dividends.
Kay Ng of the Motley Fool likes this stock. One reason is their diversified tenant base. Doug Madison of Financial Market News talks about a Director buying shares and what several research firms have said about this stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog tomorrow I will write about Dividend Stocks for March 2016, learn more on Tuesday, March 8, 2016 around 5 pm. The last stock I wrote about was Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC- CRXIF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC- RIOCF)... learn more on Wednesday, March 9, 2016 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book How Civilizations Die by David Goldman,learn more...
Allied Properties REIT owns a portfolio of predominantly Class I office properties in Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg, Quebec City, Ottawa, Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, and Kitchener-Waterloo. Its web site is here Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, March 4, 2016
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is cheap to reasonable. This stock has done well for shareholders with a good dividend yield and higher than inflation dividend growth. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust.
I own this stock of Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC-CRXIF). I started to follow some REITs because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. I was mainly interested in ones that have commercial properties. In September 2009, I wanted to buy another REIT after having to sell Summit. I already have lots of RioCan. I looked at H&R and CDN REIT. I think that CDN REIT is a better buy. I was not interested in CAP as it is only Apartments.
Outstanding shares have grown at 1.8% and 2.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This makes the per share values important. For example, the Revenue has grown at 3.7% and 5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, Revenue per Share has only grown at 1.8% and 2.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth per share is important for me as I own shares in this company.
Note that increasing or decreasing outstanding shares is neither good nor bad, but you have to ensure that you look at the right growth rates to determine how well a company is or is not growing. Shares in this company have grown due to Share Issues and DRIP and have decreased due to Buy Backs. For Stock Options, the company buys shares on the open market.
The dividends are good on this stock and the dividend growth is low. The current dividend yield is 4.19% and the 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is 4.9% and 3.4% per year. According to the Bank of Canada inflation over the past 5 and 10 years is at 1.07% and 1.49% per year. Core inflation is running at 1.37% and 1.56% per year.
When you have rather high dividends, and I think any dividend over 4% is high, then you are looking for growth at or above the rate of inflation. This company is certainly increasing dividends faster than the rate of inflation.
The company can afford their dividends. For REITs it is probably best to use Dividend Payout Ratios based on Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) or Funds from Operations (FFO). In 2015 the DPR for AFFO is 73.3% and for FFO is 58%. If you compare the 5 year running average dividends to 5 year running average AFFO or FFO, the DPR for AFFO is 66.9% and for FFO is 57.9%. The company is doing fine as far as DPR goes.
A negative is the very low Liquidity Ratio. The one for 2018 is just 0.28. This means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. Even adding in Cash Flow after the dividends only raises this ratio to 0.69. This makes the company vulnerability if we hit bad times. The other debt ratios are fine.
Instead of using Price/EPS Ratio, I will be using the P/FFO Ratio to test the stock price. The 5 year low, median and high median Price/FFO Ratios are 13.89, 15.25 and 16.61. The 10 year P/FFO Ratios are similar, if a bit lower at 13.04, 14.36 and 15.97. The current P/FFO Ratio is 13.90 based on a stock price of $42.94 and 2016 FFO estimate of $3.09. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. It is getting close to cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $56.31. The 10 year low, median and high median P/GP Ratios are 0.91, 1.08 and 1.19. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.76. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
When I look at Dividend Yields, I see that the stock in the past had very high yields. The historical high is around 12%, with a historical median of 6.57% which is some 36% higher than the current one of 4.19. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are much lower at 3.79% and 4.28%.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are either a Buy or Hold. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $45.58. This implies a total return of 10.34% with 4.19% from dividends and 6.15% from capital gains.
There is a press release on Stock House concerning the 3 and 12 month financial results to the end of December 2015 for this company. Joseph Solitro of Motley Fool likes this REIT. Recent analysts' recommendations and changes are on Financial Market News.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Low Dividend Stock... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF)... learn more on Monday, March 7, 2016.
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust is an equity real estate trust, which acquires and owns a portfolio of income-producing properties. It specializes in the acquisition and ownership of community shopping centers, industrial and office properties across Canada. This company owns office, industrial, retail properties and some miscellaneous items such as apartment buildings. Its web site is here Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC-CRXIF). I started to follow some REITs because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. I was mainly interested in ones that have commercial properties. In September 2009, I wanted to buy another REIT after having to sell Summit. I already have lots of RioCan. I looked at H&R and CDN REIT. I think that CDN REIT is a better buy. I was not interested in CAP as it is only Apartments.
Outstanding shares have grown at 1.8% and 2.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This makes the per share values important. For example, the Revenue has grown at 3.7% and 5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, Revenue per Share has only grown at 1.8% and 2.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth per share is important for me as I own shares in this company.
Note that increasing or decreasing outstanding shares is neither good nor bad, but you have to ensure that you look at the right growth rates to determine how well a company is or is not growing. Shares in this company have grown due to Share Issues and DRIP and have decreased due to Buy Backs. For Stock Options, the company buys shares on the open market.
The dividends are good on this stock and the dividend growth is low. The current dividend yield is 4.19% and the 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is 4.9% and 3.4% per year. According to the Bank of Canada inflation over the past 5 and 10 years is at 1.07% and 1.49% per year. Core inflation is running at 1.37% and 1.56% per year.
When you have rather high dividends, and I think any dividend over 4% is high, then you are looking for growth at or above the rate of inflation. This company is certainly increasing dividends faster than the rate of inflation.
The company can afford their dividends. For REITs it is probably best to use Dividend Payout Ratios based on Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) or Funds from Operations (FFO). In 2015 the DPR for AFFO is 73.3% and for FFO is 58%. If you compare the 5 year running average dividends to 5 year running average AFFO or FFO, the DPR for AFFO is 66.9% and for FFO is 57.9%. The company is doing fine as far as DPR goes.
A negative is the very low Liquidity Ratio. The one for 2018 is just 0.28. This means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. Even adding in Cash Flow after the dividends only raises this ratio to 0.69. This makes the company vulnerability if we hit bad times. The other debt ratios are fine.
Instead of using Price/EPS Ratio, I will be using the P/FFO Ratio to test the stock price. The 5 year low, median and high median Price/FFO Ratios are 13.89, 15.25 and 16.61. The 10 year P/FFO Ratios are similar, if a bit lower at 13.04, 14.36 and 15.97. The current P/FFO Ratio is 13.90 based on a stock price of $42.94 and 2016 FFO estimate of $3.09. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. It is getting close to cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $56.31. The 10 year low, median and high median P/GP Ratios are 0.91, 1.08 and 1.19. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.76. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
When I look at Dividend Yields, I see that the stock in the past had very high yields. The historical high is around 12%, with a historical median of 6.57% which is some 36% higher than the current one of 4.19. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are much lower at 3.79% and 4.28%.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are either a Buy or Hold. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $45.58. This implies a total return of 10.34% with 4.19% from dividends and 6.15% from capital gains.
There is a press release on Stock House concerning the 3 and 12 month financial results to the end of December 2015 for this company. Joseph Solitro of Motley Fool likes this REIT. Recent analysts' recommendations and changes are on Financial Market News.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about Low Dividend Stock... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF)... learn more on Monday, March 7, 2016.
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust is an equity real estate trust, which acquires and owns a portfolio of income-producing properties. It specializes in the acquisition and ownership of community shopping centers, industrial and office properties across Canada. This company owns office, industrial, retail properties and some miscellaneous items such as apartment buildings. Its web site is here Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
Home Capital Group
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock at good price. They have a good dividend record and stock is reasonable. However, I think this bank is also riskier than other banks, like our big 5 banks. See my spreadsheet on Home Capital Group.
I do not own this stock of Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF). I started reviewing this company in September 2009. It is a dividend growth company and was coming up on lists of good dividend paying stocks. It is on some dividend paying companies lists that I look at.
There is a relatively high amount of insider selling. Net Insider selling is at 0.12% of market cap. For the stocks that I cover, the median NIS is at $0.02% and 75% have NIS at 0.11% or lower. Stock options are on the high side also. The outstanding shares were increased by 32% in 2015 for stock options and by 0.91% last year. For the stocks that I cover outstanding shares were increased at a median of 22% and 75% of the stocks had increased shares of 0.50% or less.
All the other banks I cover had lower NIS and lower increases of shares due to stock options except for Barclays Bank. One positive is that it has a higher Debt Ratio than the other banks at 1.09. Other bank Debt Ratios are around 1.06 and 1.07.
This stock has a good record of dividends. They started to pay dividends in 1999 so they are in their 18th year of paying dividends. They have raised dividends in all but one year of 2003. The dividends have grown at 21.7% and 26.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was in 2016 and it was for 9.1%.
The dividends have grown over the years. Dividends started off being under 1%. In the last 5 years dividends have been low to moderate. The 5 year median Dividend yield is 1.6%. The current dividend yield is 2.86%. It is only in 2015 that dividends were moderate.
They can afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2015 for EPS was 21.5% and for CFPS was 20.8%. The 5 year median DPR for EPS was 14.8% and for CFPS was 20.1%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.79, 9.19 and 11.72. The corresponding 10 years values are close at 7.15, 9.15 and 11.81. The historical median P/E Ratio is 9.15. The current P/E Ratio is 7.70 based on a stock price of $33.58 and 2016 EPS estimate of $4.36. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $47.84. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.72, 0.93 and 1.14. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.70 based on a stock price of $33.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Last year was not a great year for this stock. The stock value fell some 44% in 2015. It has picked up this year and the stock price is up around 25% so far. The 5 and 10 year total return is at 8.94% and 8.88% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 2.47% and 1.96% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 6.46% and 6.92% per year.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. All but one recommendation is a Buy and the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $34.60. This implies a total return of 5.90% with 2.86% from dividends and 3.04% from capital gains. Obviously, analysts do not think there is much more growth in this stock this year.
This is an article about Larry Soloway, the founder and chair of this company who is set to retire. Analysts expect that the current President Martin Reid is a likely and capable successor. Here is a news release for the latest dividend increase for this company. In some years they have increased the dividends more than once in a year. This article in the Business Standard Tribute talks about a recent stock run up and what analysts are saying about this stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about My Portfolio and SPY learn more . The next stock I will write about will Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC- CRXIF)... learn more on Friday, March 4, 2016.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Voice, The Word, The Books by F. E. Peters. learn more...
Home Capital Group Inc. operates through one subsidiary, Home Trust Company, to provide mortgage lending, deposit, retail credit and credit card issuing services. They have subprime mortgages. Its web site is here Home Capital Group.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF). I started reviewing this company in September 2009. It is a dividend growth company and was coming up on lists of good dividend paying stocks. It is on some dividend paying companies lists that I look at.
There is a relatively high amount of insider selling. Net Insider selling is at 0.12% of market cap. For the stocks that I cover, the median NIS is at $0.02% and 75% have NIS at 0.11% or lower. Stock options are on the high side also. The outstanding shares were increased by 32% in 2015 for stock options and by 0.91% last year. For the stocks that I cover outstanding shares were increased at a median of 22% and 75% of the stocks had increased shares of 0.50% or less.
All the other banks I cover had lower NIS and lower increases of shares due to stock options except for Barclays Bank. One positive is that it has a higher Debt Ratio than the other banks at 1.09. Other bank Debt Ratios are around 1.06 and 1.07.
This stock has a good record of dividends. They started to pay dividends in 1999 so they are in their 18th year of paying dividends. They have raised dividends in all but one year of 2003. The dividends have grown at 21.7% and 26.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was in 2016 and it was for 9.1%.
The dividends have grown over the years. Dividends started off being under 1%. In the last 5 years dividends have been low to moderate. The 5 year median Dividend yield is 1.6%. The current dividend yield is 2.86%. It is only in 2015 that dividends were moderate.
They can afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2015 for EPS was 21.5% and for CFPS was 20.8%. The 5 year median DPR for EPS was 14.8% and for CFPS was 20.1%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.79, 9.19 and 11.72. The corresponding 10 years values are close at 7.15, 9.15 and 11.81. The historical median P/E Ratio is 9.15. The current P/E Ratio is 7.70 based on a stock price of $33.58 and 2016 EPS estimate of $4.36. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $47.84. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.72, 0.93 and 1.14. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.70 based on a stock price of $33.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Last year was not a great year for this stock. The stock value fell some 44% in 2015. It has picked up this year and the stock price is up around 25% so far. The 5 and 10 year total return is at 8.94% and 8.88% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 2.47% and 1.96% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 6.46% and 6.92% per year.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. All but one recommendation is a Buy and the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price target is $34.60. This implies a total return of 5.90% with 2.86% from dividends and 3.04% from capital gains. Obviously, analysts do not think there is much more growth in this stock this year.
This is an article about Larry Soloway, the founder and chair of this company who is set to retire. Analysts expect that the current President Martin Reid is a likely and capable successor. Here is a news release for the latest dividend increase for this company. In some years they have increased the dividends more than once in a year. This article in the Business Standard Tribute talks about a recent stock run up and what analysts are saying about this stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.
On my other blog I wrote yesterday about My Portfolio and SPY learn more . The next stock I will write about will Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC- CRXIF)... learn more on Friday, March 4, 2016.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Voice, The Word, The Books by F. E. Peters. learn more...
Home Capital Group Inc. operates through one subsidiary, Home Trust Company, to provide mortgage lending, deposit, retail credit and credit card issuing services. They have subprime mortgages. Its web site is here Home Capital Group.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
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